Chapter Eighteen: Growth and Sustainability in the Twenty-First Century Climate Change Figure 18.1: Global Temperature Trends, 19002100 Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program, www.globalchange.gov . Economic Growth and the Environment Sulfur dioxide emissions per capita (kg) Sulfur dioxide per capita (kg) Kgemissions S02 per Capita Figure 18.2: Environmental Kuznets Curve for Sulfur Dioxide Emissions 250 200 150 100 50 00 5000 10000 15000 $ GNP per Capita capita GNPGNP per per capita 20000 25000 Source: T. Panayotou, “Empirical Tests and Policy Analysis of Environmental Degradation at Different Levels of Development,” International Labour Office Working Paper, 1993. Figure 18.3: Carbon Dioxide Emissions vs GDP per Capita, 2009 25.0 CO2 Emissions per Capita (Metric Tons) Brunei United Arab Emirates Bahrain 20.0 United States Saudi Arabia Kazakhstan 15.0 Norway 10.0 China Switzerland 5.0 Sweden India Gabon - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 GDP per Capita (2005 $, PPP) Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators Database 2013. 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 Figure 18.4: Environmentally Based Taxes as a Share of Total Tax Revenue, Select Industrialized Countries Percent of total tax revenue 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Source: OECD, OECD/EEA Instruments Database 2007 Table 18.1: Global Population Classification by Income and Environmental Impacts, 2013 Source: World Bank, Little Green Data Book 2013; World Development Indicators 2013. Figure 18.5: A Consumption Possibilities Frontier Leisure Europe United States Income, Consumption Are Stabilization and Sustainability in Conflict? Figure 18.6: Growth Reaching a Steady-State Resource-using Economic Activities Steady State Time Figure 18.7: A No-Growth Scenario for the Canadian Economy Index (2005=100) 200 GDP/Capita 150 100 GHG Unemployment Poverty Debt to GDP 50 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year Source: Adapted from Peter Victor, Managing Without Growth: Slower by Deisgn, not Disaster. Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar, 2008, p. 182. Appendix: Demographic Challenges Table 18.2: Stages of Demographic Transition Figure 18.8: Population by Age and Sex, United States, 1900, 2000, and 2040 (projected) (a) 1900 (b) 2000 (c) 2040, projected Source: Wan Wan He, Manisha Sengupta, Victoria A. Velkoff, and Kimberly A. DeBarros, U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Reports, P23–209, “65+ in the United States: 2005”, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, 2005. Figure 18.9: Old-Age Dependency Ratios, 1950-2050 70 Italy Old-Age Dependency Ratio 60 50 40 30 United States 20 10 China 0 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 Year Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Population Database. Figure based on mediumvariant projections. 2050