MAIN PRESENTATION TITLE
The
Recessions impact on food
and drink consumption
Jonathan.firth@KantarWorldpanel.com
WorldpanelUsage
© Kantar Worldpanel
The Buyer of a product is often
very different to the End User
…Looking within
the home to see
the complete
picture
WorldpanelUsage
© Kantar Worldpanel
Agenda
The broad impact of the
recession on in home
consumption
10 consumption trends in
10 minutes
WorldpanelUsage
© Kantar Worldpanel
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
-4.3
-3.7
Q4 09
Q1 10
0.3
0.2
Foodservice Performance
Total OOH suffers – even QSR battling to retain traffic
Traffic % Change
vs. Year Ago
Staying in
is the new
Q1 09
Q2 09
going out
Total OOH
-1.1
-2.8
-5.8
Q3 09
1.7
0.7
QSR
-1.5
WorldpanelUsage
© Kantar
Worldpanel
Source: The NPD Group/
CREST
Food service decline
boosting our consumption in the home
66000
Millions of occasions
65500
65000
In home
64500
64000
63500
63000
62500
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
m/e m/e m/e m/e m/e m/e m/e m/e m/e m/e m/e m/e m/e m/e m/e m/e m/e m/e m/e
Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May
2005 2006 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
In Home Consumption
12 m/e Feb 2010
WorldpanelUsage
© Kantar Worldpanel
Average cost per meal (per head)
Relatively low cost per heads have made eating in home a
winning recessionary trend
Breakfast
43p
Lunch
Tea time
£1.08
£1.09
Evening Meal
£1.44
Snacks
85p
£5.76
evening
meal for 4
WorldpanelUsage
© Kantar Worldpanel
In Home meals winning as result of recession
More recent slowdown evident (outside of breakfast)
+4%
18,000
16,556
16,003
+4%
16,000
+4%
12,000
13,025
13,563
+1%
10,874
10,379
+2%
10,000
8,240
8,000
8,318
+1%
6,510
6,372
6,000
3,910
3,882
4,000
2,000
12 m/e May 2007
12 m/e May 2008
12 m/e May 2009
In Home Consumption
12 m/e May 2010
(% chg vs May 2007)
Lunchbox
In Home
Snacks
Evening
Meal
Teatime
Lunch
0
Breakfast
Millions Occasions
14,000
12 m/e May 2010
WorldpanelUsage
© Kantar Worldpanel
IN HOME WINNERS AND LOSERS
15 key consumption facts in 15 minutes
© Kantar Worldpanel
BREAKFAST CONTINUES TO GROW AS A KEY MAIN IN
HOME USAGE OCCASION
Millions of occasions
16,600
More emphasis
on starting the
day without an
empty stomach
16,500
16,400
16,300
16,200
16,100
16,000
15,900
15,800
15,700
12 m/e May
2007
12 m/e May
2008
12 m/e May
2009
12 m/e May
2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
Breakfast Skippers
Everyday
Eaters
Occasional
Skippers
eat breakfast
14 times in 2
weeks
eat breakfast
11 to 13 times
Medium
Skippers
eat breakfast 5
to 10 times
Regular
Skippers
Complete
Skippers
eat breakfast 1
to 4 times
no breakfasts
in 2 weeks
Frequency of In Home Breakfast
Consumption
(in an average two weekly period)
Source: WorldPanel Usage
© Kantar Worldpanel
LUNCHBOX SERVINGS ALSO REMAIN STRONG BUT
GROWTH HAS SLOWED
Millions of occasions
4,050
Planning ahead
so consumers
become less
spontaneous
4,000
3,950
3,900
3,850
3,800
3,750
3,700
12 m/e May 2008
12 m/e May 2009
12 m/e May 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
Ireland: More emphasis on bigger baskets (planning
ahead)
Shoppers are looking to plan ahead more, and this links into their
more restricted store repertoire in 2010
7.8
7.4
% change in spend
% change in packs
3.6
-2.2
-3.5
-5.2
% of spend Destination
1 item
4.3%
Baskets
2-9 items
37.4%
Trolley
58.4%
10+ items
12 w/e to 11th July 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
GROWTH RETURN TO THE SNACK OCCASION
INDULGENT EVENINGS IN HOME SNACKING TRENDS
Millions of occasions (Food &
Drink in home)
14,250
In home snacking
driven by “what's
available”
Planning ahead
for treats
14,200
14,150
14,100
14,050
14,000
13,950
12 m/e
May 2009
12 m/e 12 m/e Nov 12 m/e Feb 12 m/e
Aug 2009
2009
2010
May 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
Ireland: Chocolate Multipacks within
Confectionery are taking more share than they
ever have.
% share of confectionery volume
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e
10 07 05 02 30 28 25 22 22 19 17 14 12 09 06 04 01 29 27 24 21 21 18 16 13 11
Aug Sep Oct Nov Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
w/e to 11th July 2010
14
© Kantar Worldpanel
LINKS TO THE GROWTH AREA IN SNACKS
WHERE EVENINGS HAVE ALIGNMENT TO INDULGENCE
Growth area
Morning
Health
Afternoon
Evening
Enjoyment
In Home Snacking Consumption
12 m/e May 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
HOMEMADE SAVOURY COOKING GROWTH IN 2010 AS
CONSUMERS GET BACK TO THE HOB
Millions of servings – Homemade Savoury
3,900
3,800
3,700
3,600
3,500
3,400
3,300
3,200
3,100
12 m/e May
2007
12 m/e May
2008
12 m/e May
2009
12 m/e May
2010
Consumers now
far more open
to being
inspired and
educated about
how to prepare
and cook food.
© Kantar Worldpanel
Movement to a more convenient method of ‘scratch cooking’?
Year on Year Trends
% vs. LY
11.0
9.0
Homemade
Part Homemade
Complete Convenience Meals
7.0
5.0
3.0
1.0
-1.0
-3.0
-5.0
12 m/e
12 m/e
12 m/e
12 m/e
12 m/e
12 m/e
12 m/e
12 m/e
12 m/e
12 m/e
Feb 2008 May 2008 Aug 2008 Nov 2008 Feb 2009 May 2009 Aug 2009 Nov 2009 Feb 2010 May 2010
In Home Consumption
12 m/e May 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
Ireland: Evidence mirroring GB consumer based trends
Shopper growth over the latest
quarter to mid-year 2010
Shopper decline over the latest
quarter to mid-year 2010
Home baking +218K
Wine +59K shoppers
Fresh Chicken +30K shoppers
Fresh Beef +15K shoppers
One shot drinks -110K shoppers
Hair colourants -76K shoppers
Hand wash products -44K shoppers
Special treats -39K shoppers
Herbal tea -18K shoppers
Less essential
More essential
12 w/e 13th June 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
GETTING MORE MILEAGE FROM FOOD WITHIN THE
HOME A KEY THEME IN 2010
Millions of servings – ‘Needed using
up’ as a motive
This links into
component
cooking as well
as more focus on
shelf life
6,700
6,600
6,500
6,400
6,300
6,200
6,100
6,000
12 m/e May
2007
12 m/e May
2008
12 m/e May
2009
12 m/e May
2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
VISIBLITY OF PRODUCT IN-HOME ENCOURAGES INCREASED
USAGE (PARTICULARLY INCREMENTAL SNACKING CONSUMPTION)
© Kantar Worldpanel
42
That’s how many chances you
have each week to stand out in
the Fridge
24
in the Cupboard
8
in the Freezer
Number of visits per week to fridge/cupboard/freezer
WorldpanelUsage
© Kantar Worldpanel
With Eating in the new eating out……
There is increased pressure to stand out from the
crowd
WorldpanelUsage
© Kantar Worldpanel
EATING TOGETHER TAKES MORE FOCUS AS 1 SITTING
OCCASIONS GROW IN 2010
Millions of servings – 1 sitting at the
evening meal occasion
9,800
9,700
9,600
9,500
9,400
9,300
9,200
12 m/e Feb 2008
12 m/e Feb 2009
12 m/e Feb 2010
More relevance
for ‘one size fits
all’ meal solutions
and food as more
of a social
gathering again
© Kantar Worldpanel
IN HOME ENTERTAINING BECAME MORE IMPORTANT TO
CONSUMERS IN 2010
Millions of servings – ‘Social/ Entertaining’ as a motive
1,500
1,450
Links into the
decline in out of
home dining
1,400
1,350
1,300
1,250
1,200
1,150
1,100
12 m/e May
2007
12 m/e May
2008
12 m/e May
2009
12 m/e May
2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
HEALTH AS A MOTIVE FOR CONSUMPTION WITHIN THE
HOME HAS RESUMED GROWTH
Millions of servings
35,500
Health more
front of mind
(again) as we
emerge from
recession
35,000
34,500
34,000
33,500
33,000
32,500
12 m/e May
2007
12 m/e May
2008
12 m/e May
2009
12 m/e May
2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
Health outgrowing indulgence for the past 2 periods
Health vs. Indulgence Trends: Yr-on-Yr Growth
Health vs. Indulgence - Millions Servings (YOY Growth)
7.0
Health
Indulgent
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
12 m/e
12 m/e
12 m/e
12 m/e
12 m/e
12 m/e
12 m/e
12 m/e
12 m/e
12 m/e
Feb 2008 May 2008 Aug 2008 Nov 2008 Feb 2009 May 2009 Aug 2009 Nov 2009 Feb 2010 May 2010
In Home / Lunchbox Consumption
12 m/e May 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
FAMILIAR CHOICES
Consumption for Favourite
Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May07
07
07
07
08
08
08
08
09
09
09
09
10
10
Fancied a change
…rather than the risk of change
Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May07
07
07
07
08
08
08
08
09
09
09
09
10
10
In Home / Lunchbox Consumption
12 m/e May 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
M
ay
Ju 04
l
S e - 04
pN 04
ov
Ja -04
n
M -05
ar
M -05
ay
Ju 05
l
S e - 05
pN 05
ov
Ja -05
n
M -06
ar
M -06
ay
Ju 06
l
S e - 06
pN 06
ov
Ja -06
n
M -07
ar
M -07
ay
Ju 07
l
S e - 07
pN 07
ov
Ja -07
n
M -08
ar
M -08
ay
Ju 08
l
S e - 08
pN 08
ov
Ja -08
n
M -09
ar
M -09
ay
Ju 09
Se l-09
pN 09
ov
Ja -09
n
M -10
ar
M -10
ay
Ju 10
l-1
0
Confidence plummets after the General Election
120
Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
Source : TNS-RI research for Nationwide
© Kantar Worldpanel
Is a
virtue
Consumption is changing - Opportunities for incremental
volume by maximising all potential meals
© Kantar Worldpanel
As we (come out) of recession …
Before
During
After
Eating out
Eating in is the new
eating out
Return to eating out
Health concerns
Can’t afford to eat
healthily
Return of health
concerns
Organic / Fair trade
Charity begins at home
Affordable organic,
Fairtrade & local
Premium / Treating
Value
Treating returns
‘Mix & Match’ premium
Ready Meals &
Convenience
Homemade
Part Homemade
© Kantar Worldpanel
The Recessions impact on food and
drink consumption
Jonathan Firth
Kantar Worldpanel
Email: jonathan.firthl@kantarworldpanel.com
© Kantar Worldpanel