The Irish & UK Grocery
Retail Landscape
David Berry 20 Jan 2015
Place Picture
Here
1 Market Dynamics
2 Retail Trends
3 Opportunities
“The supermarket industry has changed more
rapidly in the last three to six months than any time
in my thirty years in the industry”
Mike Coupe, Sainsbury’s CEO
4
© Kantar Worldpanel
5
© Kantar Worldpanel
6
© Kantar Worldpanel
7
© Kantar Worldpanel
Irish Consumers More Upbeat In December
Consumer Sentiment Index
120
110
Quarter 4, 1995=100
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Monthly Index
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
3 mth moving average
8
© Kantar Worldpanel
What is the impact on retail sales?
Annual Change In CSO Retail Sales Index
2.2
-2
-0.7
-0.7
-0.2
2011
2012
2013
-18
2009
2010
9
2014
Source: CSO Retail Sales Index
© Kantar Worldpanel
How has grocery spend evolved?
Annual Change In Kantar Total Grocery Sales
0.7
0.9
0.4
-0.5
-1.8
-3.3
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source:
Kantar Worldpanel, data to 5th Jan 2014
10
© Kantar Worldpanel
˃ More Shoppers
Tesco: 3 Year Market Share
28.3
27
˃ Shopping Less Often
25.7
˃ Buying 1 item less
˃ Swing to Branded
2012
2013
2014
11
© Kantar Worldpanel
˃ More Shoppers
SuperValu: 3 Year Market
Share
˃ Shopping More Often
25.2
25
24.9
˃ Spending €1 less each trip
˃ Swing to Own Brand
2012
2013
2014
12
© Kantar Worldpanel
Dunnes: 3 Year Market Share
22.5
22.6
˃ Fewer Shoppers
22.2
˃ Spending slightly less
˃ Own Brand more important
˃ Strong chilled performance
2012
2013
2014
13
© Kantar Worldpanel
Lidl: 3 Year Market Share
˃ More Shoppers
7.8
6.4
˃ Shopping more often
6.9
˃ Spending more each time
˃ Own brand growing faster
2012
2013
2014
14
© Kantar Worldpanel
Aldi: 3 Year Market Share
˃ More Shoppers
8.1
˃ Shopping more often
6.9
5.6
˃ Spending more each time
˃ All categories grow sales
2012
2013
2014
15
© Kantar Worldpanel
GB MARKET SHARE AND GROWTH
Only growth is from Lidl, Aldi & Waitrose
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
100.0
Grocers
-0.2
28.7
Tesco
-3.7
17.2
Asda
-0.2
16.4
Sainsbury's
-2.5
11.1
Morrisons
-3.3
6.2
Co-Operative
-1.3
2.0
Iceland
-0.8
5.1
Waitrose
5.6
4.9
Aldi
25.5
3.5
Lidl
16.8
2.0
Indeps & symbols
-2.3
30.0
Share
Growth
-10
% spend share
0
10
20
30
% spend growth
Till Roll. KWP 2014 11. 12 w/e 09 Nov 14
16
© Kantar Worldpanel
17
© Kantar Worldpanel
Spending
€104 per
week
On 58
items
Across
4.7 trips
In 2
different
stores
1.6m
Shoppers
405m
occasions
to target
*CSO Ireland **ESRI Sep 2014
Any market growth is coming through For
Tonight or Specific Journey missions
3.4
9
19
For Tonight
44
Main Shop
28
6.5
Specific Journey
Replenishment
% Sales Contribution
-4.0
-0.1
% Change In Sales
19
© Kantar Worldpanel
Shoppers switch their spend from one
mission to another
Discounter
Main Shop
Discounter
Replenish
Supermarket
Specific
Journey
Supermarket
Replenish
Supermarket
Main Shop
20
© Kantar Worldpanel
37 trips per year
4 markets per trip
Fresh Protein
Chilled Convenience
Bakery
€14 per trip
Household
Soft Drinks & Savoury Snacks
Healthcare & Toiletries
€2.10 per pack
65
138
76
52
Tuesday / Wednesday
Larger, mature
households or Pre
Families
69
ROI TakeHome Grocery, 52w to 14th Sept 2014
21
© Kantar Worldpanel
Solutions for tonight
Solutions for
tomorrow
58 trips per year
4 markets per trip
Alcohol
Toiletries
Confectionery & Snacks
€18 per trip
€2.23 per pack
Biscuits
Dairy
Chilled Convenience
89
104
Sunday / Monday /
Saturday
75
70
115
Younger groups – Pre
Family or Young Family
ROI TakeHome Grocery, 52w to 14th Sept 2014
24
© Kantar Worldpanel
TOP UP MISSIONS ARE GAINING GROUND, BUT ONLY SLOWLY
% of spend by mission type
100.0
Top up
% spend
90.0
Main shop
80.0
70.0
59.1
59.5
60.1
60.5
60.3
61.2
40.9
40.5
39.9
39.5
39.7
38.8
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
RT43 (Grocery). KWP 2014 P08. 52we 17 Aug 2014
25
© Kantar Worldpanel
Small
trips
get bigger
More top up shops in:
Big trips get sm
aller
Main shops decreasing:
Supermarkets £14
Discounters £8
Online £54
Price war in supermarkets
vs
Convenience £6
11% of main shops in
discounters
Widening online appeal
RT43 (Grocery). KWP 2014 P09. 52we 14 Sep 2014
26
© Kantar Worldpanel
Sainsbury’s
helping
Specific
Journeys
27
© Kantar Worldpanel
So what is my chance of growth?
1%
1%
-1%
-1%
34%
19%
47%
66%
31%
3%
CONSTANT & CONSISTENT
MARKETING ACTIVITY
Every week
better than
2015
2015
MORE FAME: PAY MORE FOR STARS
(BRANDS) THAT EVERYONE IS
TALKING ABOUT.
MORE VISIBILITY IN STORE: A
DISTINCTIVE STORY FOR YOUR
CUSTOMERS
GENUINE NEW PRODUCT INITIATIVES
1
2
3
AN IMPROVED VALUE OFFER
© Kantar Worldpanel
69% +€430
61% +€554
KANTAR WORLDPANEL 52 WE DATA TO 18th AUGUST 2013
30
© Kantar Worldpanel
The Irish & UK Grocery
Retail Landscape
David Berry 20 Jan 2015
Place Picture
Here