OLED Summit
Strategy Discussion
September 27,2010
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The Inflection Point
Small/Medium
Units (000)
Y/Y Growth Units
Revenue ($000)
Y/Y GrowthRevenue
2009
16,350
548,278
2
2010
35,888
119%
1,095,519
100%
2011
112,097
212%
2,984,136
172%
2012
321,542
187%
6,622,604
122%
AMOLED’s Incredible Growth in 2011
and 2012
In 2009, there was only 1 AMOLED Fab
operating in MP with 26K substrates
starts/month. By the end of the 2012,
there will be at least 7 Fabs from 4
different suppliers.Two of the fabs will
be Gen 5.5 (1300x1500 mm). Capacity
will grow to 260K substrates/month
Super AMOLED from Samsung, with Integrated Touch
S.S. Kim, CTO,SMD @ SID Seminar in May, 2010 SMD’s goal is
600m 700m smartphone displays by 2015
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Discussion Point #1
o How is AMOLED performance for small/medium
displays differentiated from AMLCDs today and into
the future?
o Can these performance differentiations be sustained? If so,
what is needed? If not, why not?
o How do we increase consumer awareness and demand for
AMOLEDs in cell phones and the like?
o What is the real high ambient light performance of OLEDs
compared to LCDs?
Engaged tested Nokia's new CBD display against the phone's SLCD. Both do not perform very good in intense, direct sunlight,
but the CBD has a very slight edge as it offers better visibility in
extreme viewing angles.
LCD 500 cd/m2 max brightness (typical) , AMOLED ~300 cd/m2
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3
OLED Lighting
4
Primary Market
•
•
Currently, OLED lighting
is limited to
demonstration programs
and
decorative/architectural
lighting.
Future – 3 to 5 years
away
– Fluorescent
Luminaire
Replacements
– Integrated into
acoustic ceiling tiles
– Compete with LEDs
Source: Lumiotec
Source: Osram Opto
Source: Acuity Brands
Source: Lumiotec
Source: General Electric
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Source: Philips
Sample Demonstrators
5
• Mitsubishi Panel features:
– Size: 14 cm*14 cm
– Efficiency (typical): 28 lm/w
– Types of materials: small molecular OLED (as
emitter)
– Types of lighting: Planar thin OLED Lighting,
partially using solution OLED,
– Color temperature tunable (2700K-6500K),
and RGB color tunable
– Lifetime(LT70, typical): 8000 hrs
– CRI (typical): 80 (R9=66)
– OLED lighting panels will use printable OLED
as under layer (=Hole injection layer)
• Schedule
– Samples – 2010
– MP -- 2011
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Source: Mitsubishi
Sample Demonstrators …
6
• Osram Panel features:
–
–
–
–
Size: 88 mm diameter x 2.1 mm
Efficiency (typical): 23 lm/w
Types of materials: small molecular OLED (as emitter)
Color temperature tunable (2580K-3320K), and RGB color
tunable
– Luminance – 1,000 cd/m2 @ 186 mA
– Lifetime(LT70 typical): 8000 hrs
– CRI (typical): 75
• Schedule -- Shipping
Source: Osram
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Sample Demonstrators …
7
• Lumiotec Panel features:
–
–
–
–
–
–
Size: 14.5 cm diameter x 14.5 cm x 2.3 mm
Efficiency (typical): ~25 lm/W
Types of materials: small molecular OLED (as emitter)
Luminance – 4,000 cd/m2
Lifetime(LT50 typical): ~4,000 hrs @ 4,000 cd/m2
CRI (typical): 80
• Schedule -- Shipping
Source: Lumiotec
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Sample Demonstrators …
8
• Philips Panel features:
–
–
–
–
Size: 11.9 cm diameter x 3.7 cm x 2.3 mm
Efficiency (typical): ~15 lm/W
Types of materials: small molecular OLED (as emitter)
Color temperature tunable (3,200 K), and RGB color
tunable
– Luminance – 3,000 cd/m2
– Lifetime(LT50 typical): ~10,000 hrs @ 1,000 cd/m2
– CRI (typical): 80
• Schedule – Q4’10
Source: Philips
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Sample Prototypes
9
• Konica Minolta Panel features:
–
–
–
–
–
–
Size: 15.0 cm diameter x 15.0 cm x 1.5 mm
Efficiency (typical): ~64 lm/W
Types of materials: phosphorescent OLED (as emitter)
Luminance – 1,000 cd/m2
Lifetime(LT50 typical): ~10,000 hrs @ 1,000 cd/m2
CRI (typical): NA
• Schedule – 2011
Source: Konica Minolta
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Spec Summary
Spec
Efficacy
Power
Color
Temperature
CRI
10
Lumiotec
25
10.6
Philips
15
2.8
2700-6500
80
Osram
23
3.0
25803320
75
Konica
Minolta
64
1.1
NA
80
3200
80
8,000
8,000
4000
cd/m2
lumens
1,000
62
1000
69
cmxcm
14
14
8.8
Units
lm/W
W
Mitsubishi
28
2.2
Lifetime
°K
1-100
hrs to
L70
Luminance
Lumens
Size
Average
31
4
Target
100
2-4
NA
NA
79
2700-3500
~80
10,000*
10000
5000
4000
264
3000
41
1000
71
2250
109
14.5
14.5
11.9
3.7
15
15
*1,000 cd/m2
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50,000
3,0004,000
500-1,000
Discussion Point #2
o Can white OLEDs meet the imposing needs of the
lighting industry
o
o
o
o
100 lm/w
3,000 to 5.000 lm
Lifetime of 50,000 hrs to L70
CRI >80
o What improvements are necessary?
o Advances in active materials?
o Electrode technologies?
o Outcoupling enhancements?
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11
100
100%
90
80%
80
60%
Units (m)
70
40%
60
20%
50
0%
40
-20%
30
20
-40%
10
-60%
0
-80%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
SSL
8.3
8.5
8.8
9.1
9.4
11.0
18.6
31.9
59.5
63.6
67.8
Trad
53.8
55.4
57.1
58.8
60.5
61.0
55.5
44.5
20.1
19.6
20.2
13.4%
13.4%
13.4%
13.4%
13.4%
15.3%
25.1%
41.7%
74.8%
76.4%
77.1%
SSL Growth
3.1%
3.1%
3.1%
3.3%
17.1%
69.5%
71.0%
86.9%
6.9%
6.5%
Trad. Growth
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
0.8%
-9.0%
-19.8%
-55.0%
-2.3%
2.8%
SSL Share
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Change/Growth
FL Lamp Shipment Forecast and SSL Penetration12
FL Lamp Revenue Forecast and SSL Penetration
9000
13
80%
8000
60%
40%
US$ (m)
6000
5000
20%
4000
0%
3000
-20%
2000
-40%
1000
0
-60%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
SSL
3783
3233
2725
2257
1912
1805
2553
3598
5453
5019
4573
Trad
4360
4625
4906
5204
5518
5730
5372
4437
2058
2072
2194
46.5%
41.1%
35.7%
30.3%
25.7%
24.0%
32.2%
44.8%
72.6%
70.8%
67.6%
SSL Growth
-14.5%
-15.7%
-17.2%
-15.3%
-5.6%
41.4%
40.9%
51.6%
-8.0%
-8.9%
Trad. Growth
6.1%
6.1%
6.1%
6.0%
3.8%
-6.2%
-17.4%
-53.6%
0.7%
5.9%
SSL Share
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Change/Growth
7000
Fluorescent vs. LED
14
Source: DOE
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Discussion Point #3
o What lighting applications should OLEDs target
o Near Term?
o Mid Term?
o Long Term?
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15
Discussion Point #4
o What are the key challenges for AMOLED display
manufacturing to scale beyond Gen 5.5?
o Can conventional VTE scale beyond its present state?
o What is the most likely active matrix approach for >Gen 5.5
o What other advances need to occur for printing to play a
role in OLED manufacturing?
o Will AMOLEDs be less expensive to manufacture
than TFT LCDs?
o What needs to happen?
o When is this possible?
o How much?
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16
Discussion Point #5
o When are standards expected and at what phase of
development is necessary?
o Displays
o Lighting
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17
Thanks for your participation!
Other Questions
barry@oled-a.org
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