Competitive analysis in
horizontal mergers
横向合并中的竞争分析
Elizabeth Xiao-Ru Wang, PhD
王晓茹博士
Competitive harms of a merger
合并的竞争危害
• Key question: is the merger likely to reduce competition and
harm consumers?
关键问题：合并会减少竞争而且损害消费者
• Potential manifestations of competitive harm post-merger
潜在的合并后竞争损害的表现
– Higher price
更高的价格
– Lower quality products
低质量的产品
– Reduced services
降低服务
– Less innovation
减少创新
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7 key areas of competitive analysis
竞争分析的7个组成部分
1. Market definition
市场界定
2. Market concentration
市场集中度
3. Powerful buyers
有实力的买方
4. Entry
准入
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5. Unilateral effects
单边效应
6. Coordinated effects
协同效应
7. Efficiency
效率
Recent trends
最新动态
• Less focus on market definition
减少对相关市场的依赖
• Greater emphasis on competitive effects
加强对竞争影响的分析
• Employ a range of tools instead of relying on a single type of
analysis
运用了一系列的工具，而不是依赖于单一类型的分析
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Market definition
相关市场的界定
• Product market
相关产品市场
• Geographic market
相关地域市场
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• Commonly used analysis:
常用的分析：
− Demand side substitution
需求方替代
− Supply side substitution
供应方替代
− Hypothetical monopoly test: a
small but significant and nontransitory increase in price
(SSNIP)
假设垄断测试：一个小但重要的
而非临时性价格上涨（SSNIP）
− Critical loss analysis
临界损失分析
Market concentration
市场集中度
• Market share
市场份额
• HHI
赫氏指数
• The “change” is often more important than the “level”
“增量”往往比“总量”更重要
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Entry
市场进入
• Timeliness
及时性
• Likelihood
可能性
• Sufficiency
充分性
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Powerful buyers
强有力的买家
• Large buyers
大买家
• Small buyers
小买家
• Maverick
搅局者
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Coordinated effects
协同效应
• Will the merger make it more likely for a group of firms to coordinate
and raise prices?
合并是否会使一组厂商更便于协调提价？
• Key factors
关键因素
– Concentrated Market: fewer competitors need to “agree”
集中的市场：需要较少的竞争对手来“同意”
– Facilitating Factors: what market characteristics support anti-competitive
coordination?
促进因素：哪些市场特征支持反竞争的协调？
– “Mavericks”: how does the merger change the incentive/ability to cooperate?
“搅局者”：合并如何改变了竞争对手之间合作的动机和能力？
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Unilateral effects
单边效应
• Will the merged firm have an incentive to raise price even if
competitors do not necessarily accommodate that price increase
by raising prices themselves?
合并后公司是否有动力提高价格，即使竞争对手不一定会相应做
出提价反应？
• Commonly used methods
常用的方法
• Merger simulation
模拟合并
• Diversion ratio
分流比
• The Gross Upward Pricing Pressure Index (GUPPI)
总体涨价压力指数（GUPPI）
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Efficiencies
效率
• Real efficiencies are not cost savings of a transfer from one entity
to another
真正的效率并非是节约的成本从一个实体转移到另一个实体
• Savings resulting from a reduction in output, service, quality, or
product choice are not counted
由于产量，服务，质量，或产品选择的减少而导致的节省不应计算
在内
• The more uncertain and more into the future efficiency claims are,
the more they are discounted
效率愈不明朗，而且越遥远，更易被打折扣
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Overview of China’s merger review
中国并购审查概况
• Economic analysis generally consistent with mainstream
antitrust approaches
商务部的反垄断经济分析和主流的方法基本一致
• Increasing transparency and growing sophistication in economic
analysis
商务部的经济分析在透明度和复杂度上不断提高
• Unique challenges including considerations of non-competition
issues
仍存在一些独特的挑战,例如非竞争因素的影响
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Thank you
谢谢
Elizabeth Xiao-Ru Wang, Ph.D.
王晓茹博士
ewang@crai.com
001-617-425-3596
Charles River Associates
200 Clarendon Street, T-33
Boston, MA 02116, USA
www.crai.com/china
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