Introduction to Financial Statement Analysis P.V. Viswanath Themes Financial Statements have to be modified and/or understood appropriately to be useful to Financial Analysts. Accounting Value is not necessary Market Value – managers need market values for decision-making. Accounting Flows are not cashflows. Cashflows are relevant for valuation. Financial Ratios can be used to gauge the financial health of an institution. Financial Ratios can be used for strategic decisionmaking. P.V. Viswanath 2 Functions of Financial Statements They provide information to the owners and creditors of the firm about the company’s current status and past financial performance Financial statements provide a convenient way for owners and creditors to set performance targets and to impose restrictions on the managers of the firm. Financial statements provide convenient templates for financial planning. P.V. Viswanath 3 The Balance Sheet The balance sheet is a snapshot of the firm’s assets and liabilities at a given point in time Assets are listed in order of liquidity, i.e. ease of conversion to cash without significant loss of value Liabilities are listed in order of time to maturity P.V. Viswanath 4 Assets Assets are divided into current assets and long-term assets. Current assets are: Cash and marketable securities Accounts receivable Inventories Other current assets, such as prepaid expenses Long-term assets include net property, plant and equipment (net PP&E). This consists of the original cost of PP&E reduced each year by an amount called depreciation that is intended to account for wear-and-tear and obsolescence. P.V. Viswanath 5 Assets When a firm acquires another firm, it will acquire a set of assets that must be listed on its balance sheet. Often it will pay more for these assets than their book value on the acquired firm’s balance sheet. The difference is listed as goodwill. Trade-marks, patents and other such assets, along with goodwill are called intangible assets. If their value decreases over time, they will be reduced by an amortization charge. Amortization, like depreciation is not a cash expense. P.V. Viswanath 6 Liabilities Liabilities are divided into current and long-term liabilities. Liabilities that will be satisfied in one year are known as current, and include: Accounts payable, Notes payable, short-term debt and all repayments of debt that will occur within the year. Items such as salary or taxes that are owed but have not yet been paid. The difference between current assets and current liabilities is known as (net) working capital. P.V. Viswanath 7 Long-term liabilities Long-term debt is any loan or debt obligation with a maturity of more than one year. Capital leases are long-term lease contracts that obligate the firm to make regular payments in exchange for the use of an asset. Deferred taxes are taxes that are owed but not yet paid. Firms keep two sets of books – one for financial reporting and one for tax purposes. Deferred tax liabilities arise when the firm’s financial (accounting) income exceeds its income for tax purposes. If a firm depreciates assets faster for tax purposes than for reporting purposes, its tax paid will be less than tax due according to reported income. Hence it will look as if the firm has not paid taxes that it owes. Over time, the discrepancy will disappear and the tax due will be “paid.” Hence deferred tax is recorded as a liability. For example, if reported depreciation is $200, while actual depreciation for tax purposes is $300. Then if the tax rate is 20%, actual tax paid (based on the higher depreciation) will be 20%(100) or $20 less. Hence this will create a tax liability, i.e. an obligation to pay the IRS $20 in the future. However, in an subsequent period, if reported depreciation is $300, while actual depreciation for tax purposes is $200; then the actual tax paid (based on the lower depreciation of $200 will be 20%(100) or $20 more than the tax required on the reported income. This will reduce the tax liability to zero. P.V. Viswanath 8 Deferred Tax Assets In principle, there could be deferred tax assets, as well. This occurs when taxable income is less than reported income; i.e. when tax recorded as paid (based on reported income) is greater than the actual tax paid (based on taxable income). For example, when a product is sold with a warranty, warranty expense is estimated for the period the products are sold even though the actual cost isn’t incurred until later periods. However, tax laws recognize a warranty expense only when the payment is actually made. Hence if warranty claims are lower in earlier periods and higher in later periods, the amounts deductible in later periods will produce tax benefits that are recognized now as a deferred tax asset. The lower actual warranty payouts in earlier periods will generate higher taxable income, but the reported higher warranty expense will make the reported income lower and hence the reported required tax payment lower. Hence the actual “excessively” high payment will generate a deferred tax asset. P.V. Viswanath 9 Stockholder’s Equity The sum of current liabilities and long-term liabilities is total liabilities. The difference between the firm’s assets and its liabilities is Stockholders’ Equity or the book value of equity. This number often does not provide us with an accurate assessment of the firm’s equity because book values are based on historical quantities and not on market values. The market price of a share times shares outstanding is called market capitalization; this reflects what investors expect the firms assets to produce in the future that can be distributed to shareholders. P.V. Viswanath 10 Market Value vs. Book Value Example According to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), your firm has equity worth $6 billion, debt worth $4 billion, assets worth $10 billion. The market values your firm’s 100 million shares at $75 per share and the debt at $4 billion. Q: What is the market value of your assets? A: Since (Assets=Liabilities + Equity), your assets must have a market value of $11.5 billion. In this example, the market value of debt is the same as the book value of debt, but this need not always be true. P.V. Viswanath 11 Market Value vs. Book Value Example Book Value Balance Sheet Assets = $10 bil Debt = $4 bil Equity = $6 bil Market Value Balance Sheet Assets = $11.5 bil Debt = $4 bil Equity = $7.5 bil P.V. Viswanath 12 The Balance Sheet Identity Current Liabilities Payables Short-term Debt Current Assets Cash & Securities Receivables Inventories + = Fixed Assets Tangible Assets Intangible Assets + Long-term Liabilities + Shareholders’ Equity P.V. Viswanath 13 Pepsico Inc. Balance Sheet (in mil. $) 28- Dec- 02 29- Dec- 01 Liabilities 28- Dec- 02 29- Dec- 01 Assets 6,052 4,998 Current Assets Current Liabilities Cash And Cash 1,638 683 Accounts Payable 5,490 3,484 Short T erm Investment 207 966 Short/Current 562 354 Long T erm Debt Net Other Current Receivable 2,531 2,142 Liabilities 1,160 Inventory 1,342 1,310 T otal Cu rren t L iab ilities 6,052 4,998 695 752 Long T erm Debt 2,187 2,651 Other T otal CuCurrent rren t Assets 6,413 5,853 Other long-term liabilities 5,937 5,398 Assets Long T erm 2,611 2,871 T 14,176 13,021 Investments otal L iab ilities Property Plant and Common Stock & Other Paid7,390 6,876 up Capital 30 69 Equipment 3,631 3,374 Retained Earnings 9,268 8,605 Goodwill 1,588 1,467 T otal S tockh old ers' E q u ity 9,298 8,674 Intangible Assets 1,841 1,254 Other Assets 21,695 T ot L iab s & S h areh old ers' E q u ity 21,695 T otal Assets 23,474 23,474 P.V. Viswanath 14 Income Statement The income statement is like a video of the firm’s operations for a specified period of time. You report revenues first and then deduct any expenses for the period. Matching principle – GAAP requires the income statement to show revenue when it accrues and match the expenses required to generate the revenue. P.V. Viswanath 15 Earnings Calculations Gross Profit The difference between sales revenues and the costs incurred to make and sell the products. Operating Expenses Expenses in the ordinary course of running the business, but not directly related to producing the goods; includes administrative expenses, marketing expenses, R&D Earnings before Interest and Taxes (EBIT) Includes other sources of income or expenses that arise from activities that are not the central part of the business, e.g. investment income. Pretax Income and Net Income (NI) From EBIT, we deduct interest paid and corporate taxes to determine Net Income. EPS = NI/Shares Outstanding P.V. Viswanath 16 Income Statement Pepsico Inc. (in mil. $) As of year ending Dec 02 Dec 01 Revenue 25,112 26,935 Cost of Goods Sold 10,523 9,837 Gross Profit 14,589 17,098 SG&A Expense 8,523 11,608 Depreciation & Amortization 1,112 1,082 Operating Income 4,954 4,408 316 227 5046 4248 178 219 Income Before Taxes 4,868 4,029 Income Taxes 1,555 1,367 Nonoperating Income EBIT Interest P.V. Viswanath 17 Accounting vs Economic Measures of Income The return to a stockholder of investing in a stock is simply the rate of return on his investment: Ending Priceof Share - BeginningPrice Cash Dividend r BeginningPriceof Share Accountants often measure corporate performance using the return on equity (ROE): Net Income ROE Shareholders' Equity A big difference between the two is that the ROE does not incorporate the impact on the share price of future expected superior (or inferior) returns P.V. Viswanath 18 Ratio Analysis Ratios also allow for better comparison through time or between companies As we look at each ratio, ask yourself what the ratio is trying to measure and why is that information important. Keep in mind also the difference between flow numbers (over a period of time) and stock numbers (at a specific point in time). Ratios are used both internally and externally P.V. Viswanath 19 Categories of Financial Ratios Profitability ratios Used to measure the firm’s return on its investments Liquidity ratios Short-term solvency or how easily the firm can lay its hands on cash. Financial leverage ratios Show long-term solvency; how heavily the firm is in debt. Efficiency or turnover ratios Indicate how productively the firm is using its assets Market value ratios P.V. Viswanath 20 Computing Profitability Measures Gross Margin = Gross Profit/ Sales 14589/25112 = 58.10% (Net) Profit Margin = Net Income / Sales 3313/ 25112 = 0.1319 times or 13.19% Operating Margin = (Operating Income) / Sales (4954) / 25112 = 0.1973 times or 19.73% Return on Assets (ROA) = (Net Income) / Av TA (3313) / [(23474+21695)/2] = 0.1467 times or 14.67% Return on Equity (ROE) = Net Income / Average Equity 3313 / [(9298+8674)/2] = 0.3687 times or 36.87% P.V. Viswanath 21 Computing Liquidity Ratios Current Ratio = CA / CL 6413 /6052 = 1.06 times Quick Ratio = (CA – Inventory) / CL (6413 – 1342) / 6052 = 0.838 times Cash Ratio = Cash / CL 1,638 / 6,052 = .276 times Net Working Capital to TA Ratio = NWC/TA (6413-6052)/ 23474 = 0.154 P.V. Viswanath 22 Computing Coverage Ratios These are also measures of a firm’s short-term solvency, similar to its liquidity ratios. Indirectly, they also measure the riskiness of the firm’s debt Times Interest Earned = EBIT / Interest (4868 + 178) / 178 = 28.35 times Cash Flow Coverage = (EBIT + Depreciation) / Interest (4868 + 178 + 1112) / 178 = 34.60 times P.V. Viswanath 23 Computing Inventory Ratios These are measures of how efficiently the firm uses its inventory. Inventory Turnover = Cost of Goods Sold / Average Inventory 10523 / [(1342+1310)/2] = 7.94 times Inventory Days = Days’ Sales in Inventory = 365 / Inventory Turnover = Av Inv/(COGS/365) This ratio gives investors an idea of how long it takes a company to sell its inventory. 365 / 7.94 = 45.99 days Note: When you have ratios with Income Statement numbers in the numerator and Balance Sheet numbers in the denominator, use average of year beginning and year end quantities. P.V. Viswanath 24 Computing Receivables Ratios These are measures of how efficiently the firm uses is receivables policy. Receivables Turnover = Sales / Av Accounts Receivable 25112 / [(2531+2142)/2] = 10.75 times Accounts Receivable Days = Average Collection Period = Days’ Sales in Receivables = 365 / Receivables Turnover = Accounts Receivables/ Av Daily Sales This measure is also known as “receivables in days.” 365 / 10.75 = 33.96 days P.V. Viswanath 25 Computing Total Asset Turnover These are measures of how efficiently the firm uses its assets overall. Total Asset Turnover = Sales / Av Total Assets 25112 / [(23474+21695)/2] = 1.11 times Measure of asset use efficiency Not unusual for TAT < 1, especially if a firm has a large amount of fixed assets. What is a reasonable value for TAT will depend on the industry in question P.V. Viswanath 26 Computing Leverage Ratios for 2002 Total Debt Ratio Debt-to-Capital Ratio = Total Debt / TA Total debt, here, is usually interpreted to mean all debt-like obligations, which is effectively total liabilities 14176 / 23,474 = .6039 times or 60.39% The firm finances almost 60% of their assets with debt. Debt/Equity = Tot Debt / Tot Equity 14,176 / 9,298 = 1.5246 times These numbers can also be computed for long-term debt (i.e. long-term liabilities): Long Term Debt Ratio = LT Debt/ Total Assets = (2,187 + 5,937)/ 23,474 = 0.3461 Long Term Debt/Equity = (2,187 + 5,937)/9,298 = 0.87375 P.V. Viswanath 27 Computing Market Value Measures Market Price (end of 2002) = $42.22 per share Shares outstanding = 1753 million P/E Ratio = Price per share / Earnings per share 42.22 / 1.89 = 22.34 times Market-to-book ratio = mkt value per share / book value per share 42.22 / (9298 / 1753) = 7.96 times Enterprise Value The value of the underlying business assets – computed as Mkt Value of Equity + Debt – Cash = 42.22(1,753) + 14,176 - 1,638 = 86,549.66m. This can be interpreted as the cost to take over the entire business. P.V. Viswanath 28 Payout and Retention Ratios Dividend payout ratio = Cash dividends / Net income Cash dividend equals common dividend + preferred divs 1041 / 3313 = .3142 or 31.42% Plowback ratio = Retention ratio = 1 – payout ratio 1 – 0.3142 = 0.6858 = 68.58% P.V. Viswanath 29 Benchmarking Ratios are not very helpful by themselves; they need to be compared to something Time-Trend Analysis Used to see how the firm’s performance is changing through time Internal and external uses Peer Group Analysis Compare to similar companies or within industries SIC and NAICS codes P.V. Viswanath 30 Standardized Financial Statements Common-Size Balance Sheets Compute all accounts as a percent of total assets Common-Size Income Statements Compute all line items as a percent of sales Standardized statements make it easier to compare financial information, particularly as the company grows They are also useful for comparing companies of different sizes, particularly within the same industry P.V. Viswanath 31 Statement of Cashflows A firm’s cashflows can be quite different from its net income. For example: The income statement does not recognize capital expenditures as expenses in the year that the capital goods are paid for. Those expenses are spread over time as a deduction for depreciation. The income statement recognizes revenues and expenses when sales are made, even though the money may not have been collected (revenues) or paid out (expenses). P.V. Viswanath 32 The Statement of Cashflows The statement of cashflows shows the firm’s cash inflows and outflows from Operations Investments and Financing The form of this statement is determined by accounting standards. P.V. Viswanath 33 Statement of Cash Flows: Operating Activities Operating activities are earnings-related activities. Generally these relate to Income Statement activities, and items included in working capital. Included are: Sales and expenses necessary to obtain sales Related operating activities, such as extending credit to customers investing in inventories obtaining credit from suppliers payment of taxes insurance payments Other activities that don't easily fit into the other two categories, such as settlements in lawsuits. P.V. Viswanath 34 Statement of Cash Flows: Investing and Financing Activities Investing activities relate to the acquisition and disposal of noncash assets: assets which are expected to generate income for the company over a period of time. These include lending funds and collecting on these loans. Financing activities relate to the contribution, withdrawing and servicing of funds to support business activities. P.V. Viswanath 35 Pepsico Inc. (in mil. $) Statement of Cash Flows 2002 3 ,3 13 N e t Inc o m e O pe ra t ing A c t iv it ie s , C a s h F lo ws P ro v ide d B y o r Us e d In 1,112 Depreciatio n A djustments To Net Inco me -390 Changes In A cco unts Receivables -260 Changes In Liabilities 704 Changes In Invento ries -53 Changes In Other Operating A ctivities 201 T o t a l C a s h F lo w F ro m O pe ra t ing A c t iv it ie s 4 ,6 2 7 Inv e s t ing A c t iv it ie s , C a s h F lo ws P ro v ide d B y o r Us e d In -1,437 Capital Expenditures Investments 757 Other Cashflo ws fro m Investing A ctivities 153 T o t a l C a s h F lo ws F ro m Inv e s t ing A c t iv it ie s -527 F ina nc ing A c t iv it ie s , C a s h F lo ws P ro v ide d B y o r Us e d In -1,041 Dividends P aid -1,734 Sale P urchase o f Sto ck -404 Net B o rro wings T o t a l C a s h F lo ws F ro m F ina nc ing A c t iv it ie s Effect Of Exchange Rate Changes C ha nge In C a s h a nd C a s h E quiv a le nt s P.V. Viswanath - 3 ,17 9 34 $ 955 36 Notes to Financial Statements The Notes to the Financial Statements are frequently very useful in assessing the financial health of the firm. They often contain: An explanation of accounting methods used Straight-line versus accelerated depreciation LIFO vs FIFO Restatement of results from prior years using the new standards Greater details regarding certain assets and liabilities Conditions and expiration dates of long- and short-term debt, leases, etc. P.V. Viswanath 37 Notes to Financial Statements Information regarding the equity structure of the firm Documentation of changes in operations Conditions attached to the ownership of shares; these can be particularly useful to assess the firm’s vulnerability to takeovers. Acquisitions and Divestitures and their impact Off-balance sheet items Forward contracts, swaps, options and other derivative contracts, which do not appear in the balance sheet, but which can affect a firm greatly. A lot of Enron’s problems had to do with such offbalance sheet items. P.V. Viswanath 38 Determinants of Growth Profit margin – operating efficiency Total asset turnover – asset use efficiency Financial leverage – choice of optimal debt ratio Dividend policy – choice of how much to pay to shareholders versus reinvesting in the firm P.V. Viswanath 39 The Du Pont Identity ROA = NI/ TA ROA = (NI/ Sales)*(Sales / TA) ROA = (Net Profit Margin)*(Asset Turnover) ROE = NI / TE ROE = (NI/Sales)*(Sales/TA)*(TA/TE) = Net Profit Margin*Asset Turnover*Equity Multiplier Net Profit margin is a measure of the firm’s operating efficiency – how well it controls costs Total asset turnover is a measure of the firm’s asset use efficiency – how well it manages its assets Equity multiplier is a measure of the firm’s financial leverage. A firm could have a high volume/low margin strategy, which would be reflected in high asset turnover but low profit margins or the reverse. The firm’s marketing (e.g. branding) and other strategies have to be commensurate. Note: ROA is sometimes defined as (NI + Int expense)/TA P.V. Viswanath 40 Determinants of Earnings Growth Rate Earnings in any period depends on the investment base, as well as the rate of return that the firm earns on that investment base: Et+1 = (TotEquityt)ROE = (TEt-1 + DTEt)(ROE), where DTEt is the increment in total equity in period t over and above that in period t-1. = (TEt-1)ROE + (DTEt)(ROE) = Et + (DTEt)(ROE); Hence Et+1 - Et = (DTEt)(ROE) Dividing both sides by Et , we get gt = (DTEt/Et)(ROE) (= Retention ratio)xROE, if there is no new equity issue). We have assumed that ROE does not change, i.e. that the debtequity ratio will be kept constant, as we can see from the DuPont identity. Hence for this formula to be exactly correct, debt must be increased and equity decreased in such a way as to keep the debt ratio constant, assuming that the assets side of the business maintains a constant profitability. This is the assumption. P.V. Viswanath 41 Sustainable Growth The sustainable growth rate tells us how fast the equity of the firm can grow, without increasing financial leverage and without any additional outside equity. We have already seen that gt = (DTEt/Et)(ROE) If only internal funds are used, then DTEt is simply retained earnings. Hence, sustainable growth rate (of earnings) = retention ratio x ROE 0.6858 x 0.3687 = 0.2528 or 25.28% If the firm can continue to earn 36.87% on its equity and can plow back 68.58% of earnings into operations, its earnings and equity should both grow at 25.28% p.a. As discussed above, ROE is assumed to be constant, i.e. that the debt-equity ratio will be kept constant, which means that debt will have to be increased in proportion to the increase in equity due to the retention of earnings. However, if the firm will not have access to new debt financing, the business can only grow at a lower rate, which is called the internal growth rate. P.V. Viswanath 42 Internal Growth Rate The rate at which the business as a whole, i.e. the total assets of the firm can grow without additional external financing is called the internal growth rate. Internal retainedearnings growth rate totalassets Internal retainedearnings net income equity x x net income equity totalassets Sustainable equity x RetentionRatio x ROA growth rate Growth Rate total assets 0.2169 x (9298+8674) /(23474+21695) = 0.2528 x 0.3979 = 0.1006 or 10.06% This differs from the sustainable growth rate in that there is no presumption that additional debt can be obtained. P.V. Viswanath 43