James L. Anderson
Advisor for Oceans, Fisheries and Aquaculture
Lead of the Global Program for Fisheries
The World Bank
Seafood Investor Forum
May 20, 2014
Roosevelt Hotel, New York, NY
Fish to 2030 – Why?
 Nearly 40 percent of global fish harvest is exported
 Over $110 billion in trade and growing
 Fish trade is more than all other meats combined
 Two-thirds of seafood trade (in value) is from developing to developed
countries
 Fish trade is more than all other meats combined; more than coffee
 Fisheries and aquaculture is an efficient animal protein producing
sector
 Sustainable food production from fisheries and aquaculture is essential
in the face of population growth
Fish to 2030 Project
 Collaboration: The World Bank, International Food
Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), University of
Arkansas, and FAO
 Projection of global supply and demand for fish and
fish meal & oil using IFPRI’s IMPACT Model
 Capture and aquaculture supply modeled
 Model:
o Country groups: 115
o Seafood groups: 16
Fish sector is dynamic and complex
(Modeling is challenging)
 Hundreds of species traded – more than 30 shrimp
species alone
 It is Dynamic:
 Aquaculture –new technologies, new species, new
players
 Demand is shifting
 Large emerging consumers – China
 Governance of capture fisheries is weak and uncertain
 Data are poor!!!
Global fish production:
Data and projections (1984-2030)
200
180
140
Total (Data)
120
Total (Model)
100
Capture (Data)
80
Capture (Model)
60
Aquaculture (Data)
40
Aquaculture (Model)
20
0
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2029
Million MT
160
Projected Total Fish Supply
2011 (Data)
Capture
90.4
Aquaculture
63.6
Total Harvest
154.0 Million Tons
2030 (Model)
Capture
93.4
Aquaculture
95.7
Total Harvest
189.1 Million Tons
Aquaculture Growth
2030 (Model)
•
•
•
•
Approx. 50% of total harvest
Approx. 62% of fish of human seafood consumption
Aquaculture 2010-2030 – 62% in 20 yrs
Total supply (capture + aquaculture) 2010-2030 – 24%
in 20 yrs
Aquaculture Supply Growth: Species
 More than 90% increase from 2010 to 2030
 Tilapia
 Shrimp
 40-90% increase from 2010 to 2030
 Molluscs
 Salmon
 Carp
 Pangasius/catfish
 Crustaceans
 Other freshwater and diadromous species
Total Fish Supply Growth: Regions
 More than 60% increase from 2010 to 2030
 India
 30-60% increase from 2010 to 2030
 Southeast Asia
80,000
70,000
60,000
 Other South Asia
50,000
40,000
 China
30,000
2010
2030
ROW
AFR
MNA
IND
SAR
SEA
JAP
CHN
EAP
LAC
NAM
ECA
20,000
10,000
0
Aquaculture Supply Growth: Regions
 More than 100% increase from 2010 to 2030
 India
 Latin America and Caribbean
 Southeast Asia
 50-100% increase from 2010 to 2030
 South Asia (excl. India)
 Middle East and North Africa
 Sub-Saharan Africa
 Less than 50% increase from 2010 to 2030
 Everywhere else
Consumption Growth: Regions
2010
2030
ECA
N. Am.
LAC
EAP
CHINA
JAPAN
SE ASIA
SAR
INDIA
MNA
AFR
 More than 50% increase from 2010 to 2030
 South Asia (excl. India)
 30-50% increase from 2010 to 2030
 India
60
 Southeast Asia
50
 North America
40
 Middle East and North Africa
30
 China
20
 Sub-Saharan Africa
10
 Decline from 2010 to 2030
0
 Japan
Key Conclusions from 2030 study
Expectations for 2030:
1. Aquaculture will produce 2/3 of food fish
2. China will consume nearly 40% of seafood
3. Production of tilapia, shrimp, will nearly double
from 2010 to 2030
4. Largest tonnage gains will be in mollusks, carps
5. Aquaculture will grow fastest in India, Latin
America, and Southeast Asia
Some Additional Perspectives
China: International Seafood Trade (1984-2011)
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
Export Quantity
2,000
Import Quantity
1,500
1,000
500
0
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
20…
2002
20…
20…
20…
2010
(Thousand metric tons)
4,500
China: #1 Seafood Exporter #1 Seafood Importer
Source: FishStat, FAO 2014
China: International Seafood Trade (1984-2011)
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Export Value
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
Import Value
China: #1 Seafood Exporter #3 Seafood Importer
(US and Japan are #1 & #2)
Source: FishStat, FAO 2014
China – Things to consider
Is their economic growth sustainable?
The corruption crack down and high value
seafood demand
Food Safety
Aquaculture
Big Risk…..DISEASE
…ISA salmon… EMS shrimp
Systems? Species? Where?
... Low cost producers generally win
... Unless create market niches are created, like
varietal wines
US Seafood Consumption Continues to Concentrate
in Fewer Species and Per Capita Consumption is Declining
Edible kg per Capita
1987
71%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Tuna
Shrimp
Cod
AK Pollock
Flatfish
Clams
Catfish
Salmon
Crab
Scallops
Other
Total
Source: NFI (2013).
2010
1.59
1.04
0.76
0.40
0.33
0.30
0.27
0.20
0.15
0.15
2.16
7.35
56%
92%
Shrimp
Tuna
Salmon
Tilapia
Catfish/Pangasius
AK Pollock
Crab
Cod
Clams
1.72
1.09
0.92
0.67
0.56
0.53
0.24
0.24
0.16
Other
Total
0.51
6.62
% change
66
-32
75%
358
NA
106
32
58
-69
-48
-61
-10
Fisheries Reform
Great investment opportunity to stop losses, cut
waste and innovate in marketing
BUT .... There to be the creation of new ways to
make monetize natural fisheries assets ... Blue
bonds?, public private partnership?, creating new
markets – futures? options?... We need create
thinking.
Thank You
janderson8@worldbank.org
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/12/18882045/fish-2030prospects-fisheries-aquaculture