Public Sector Foresight Network
At the World Future Society Annual Meeting
Sheraton Centre, Toronto
July 27, 2012
Welcome & Introduction
• Nancy Donovan, US Government Accountability
Office
• Ken Hunter, World Future Society
• Clem Bezold, Institute for Alternative Futures
Public Sector Foresight Network
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Today’s Objectives & Agenda
Objectives:
• Better understand foresight
• Support and encourage government foresight
practitioners
• Share our aspirations for foresight, our activities
and lessons
• Determine the future of the Public Sector
Foresight Network
Agenda: See copy
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Ground Rules
– Get the most out of the meeting – Network
–Share your aspirations, activities and lessons
–Learn about others’ foresight
–No direct marketing of foresight services or
tools
– Have fun
– Use active listening
– Chatham House rule: all statements are confidential
unless participants give permission to be quoted
– Set smart phones to stun except during breaks
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Our Roles
– All – practitioners and supporters of foresight
• Some new, some experienced
– Clem and Nancy – facilitators
– Reporters/recorders – small groups will
choose; volunteer
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Foresight Defined (1)
• foresight [/fɔrsaɪt, foʊr-/] noun
–
–
–
–
1. provision for or insight into future problems, needs, etc.
2. the act or ability of foreseeing
3. the act of looking forward
4. (Mathematics & Measurements / Surveying) Surveying a reading taken
looking forwards to a new station, esp in levelling from a point of known
elevation to a point the elevation of which is to be determined; Compare
backsight
– 5. (Military / Firearms, Gunnery, Ordnance & Artillery) the front sight on a
firearm
•
Collins English Dictionary – Complete and Unabridged © HarperCollins Publishers 1991, 1994, 1998, 2000, 2003
• n. Perception of the significance and nature of events before they
have occurred; care in providing for the future; prudence. The act
of looking forward.
•
American Heritage Dictionary
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Foresight Defined (2)
• FORESIGHT – Foresight involves taking a longer and broader view
of decision-making. Foresight is used to provide early warning of
emerging issues, understand challenges and opportunities, clarify
vision and goals, and check the appropriateness and “robustness”
of strategies. Foresight enables organizations, agencies, and
communities to more wisely create their futures. Foresight is
essentially about the future – a place for which there are no facts
(it has not occurred yet). Key approaches to foresight include
monitoring trends, developing forecasts and scenarios, checking
assumptions and mental maps.
– Institute for Alternative Futures, Wiser Futures Compendium 2011
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Foresight Defined (3)
• ??? - PSFN definition?
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Foresight in the Public Sector
• Foresight happens in many places and for many reasons in
government:
– For Early Warning, Horizon Scanning
– For Strategic Assessment
– For Policy Formulation
• Technology Assessment
• Environmental Impact; Health and Equity Impact
Assessment
– In the Budget Process
– In Evaluation/Oversight
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©Kenneth Hunter
July 2012
Direct ion-Set t ing Decision-Making Int egrat ed Process
Vision and St rat egic Period
Today
Long View: Plausible Fut ure Condit ions and
Scenarios of Changing Behavior and Creat ing
Knowledge and Capabilit ies
6. Alt ernat ive Pat hs and Scenarios
and Choices of Posit ioning
3. Change
Drivers and
Shapers
Pioneering
Int egrat ing
1. Who we are as
an Inst it ut ion,
Knowledge and
Capabilit ies
4. Define and
Assess Current
Organizat ional
and
Environment al
Condit ions
8. Today's
Direct ion
Set t ing
Decisions
Plans and
Implement at ion
Vision f or
10 years
f rom now.
Following, React ive,
Adapt ive
Inact ive: Malaise &
Gridlock
2. Values,
Hist ory and
Cult ure
7. Visioning, implement at ion analyses, st rat egic
plans, cont inuos monit oring, early warning, course
correct ions, and periodic f ull scale reassessment .
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Crisis: Deat h
or Renewal
5.
Assumpt ions
about
plausible
fut ure
condit ions
for more
t han 1 0
years;
preferably a
generat ion or
more.
Foresight & Strategic Planning
Trends, Forecasts, Scenarios
Critical Success
Factors
Threats/
Opportunities
Vision
External Environment
Audacious
Goals
Strategies
Weaknesses/
Strengths
Vision
Achieved
Core
Competencies
Internal Environment
Future
Organizational Position
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Foresight & the U.S. Congress
• Foresight is a component of each Committee’s
responsibilities for wisely assessing the implementation of
laws as well as the needs in the area of the committee’s
jurisdiction. It could include, e.g., future research and
forecasting on subjects within its jurisdiction. (House
Rules)
• Agency strategic plans should contain “an identification of
those key factors external to the agency and beyond its
control that could significantly affect the achievement of
the general goals and objectives” (GPRA Modernization Act
of 2010)
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Overview of Foresight, Across Nations
• Jack Smith, foresight positions in Canada’s
National Research Council, Office of
National Science Advisor, and Department
of Defense
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Overview of Canadian Foresight
• Peter Padbury, Director of Scanning and
Foresight at Policy Horizons Canada, a
foresight center in the Canadian Federal
Government
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Overview of Foresight at GAO
and other US Federal Agencies
• Nancy Donovan, Senior Analyst, Applied
Research and Methods, US Government
Accountability Office (GAO)
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Panel on Local Government Foresight
• Dewey Harris, Assistant County Manager,
Catawba County
• John Jackson, Houston Police Department and
Police Futurists International
• Leonard Matarese, Director of Research and
Public Safety Programs at International
City/County Management Association (ICMA)
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What Does Your Foresight Need?
• What tools, support, reinforcement do you/
your organization most need to do foresight
well and have it be used effectively?
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Foresight in Specific Policy Areas
• Join a group to talk about foresight in the policy
are you are most interested in or concerned about.
How can the PSFN be helpful in the policy area you
are discussing?
• Participants can choose among:
– Security/defense related foresight,
– Environment and Resources,
– Others to be nominated at the session
• Discuss foresight in your policy area for about 15
minutes
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Sustaining Foresight and the
Contribution of Foresight in a Downturn
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Foresight Methods and Approaches: What
Do You Use?
• What methods/approaches do you use, e.g. (and see Jack Smith’s
slides)?
– Scanning
– Assessing risk – security; technologies
– Surveying the public
– Forecasting
– Scenarios
– Modeling
– Vision, Audacious Goals
– Integration with Strategic Planning, Operational Planning
– Evaluation frameworks with foresight
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Communicating & Measuring
Foresight
• What are your most effective efforts to
communicate your foresight activities or results?
• How do you judge success for your foresight
work?
– What are the measures/metrics?
– How successful have your foresight efforts
been?
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PSFN Options Going Forward
• Should PSFN continue?
– Will you take part?
– What is of greatest value to you?
• List serv vs. Yahoo groups or Google groups
– Moderator?
• WFS membership or WFS professional
membership?
• For the time being the website will be
www.altfutures.org/psfn
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Onward Foresight!
• 4:50
Concluding Thoughts
• 5:00
No-host Reception
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