Decision Support Modelling
Under Uncertainty
Empowering organisations with clarity
Strategy Foresight works with senior officers and
direction-setting teams to:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Perform a very advanced form of
(knowledge) gap analysis
Tackle genuine uncertainty before
modelling risk
Construct scenarios and develop
strategy alternatives
Develop ‘what if’ models for
stakeholder engagement
Relate means and ends in complex
situations with limited resources
Analyse and develop organisational
and system structure
Strategy Foresight is not a consulting firm
 Facilitators who work with very complex
issues aka ‘wicked problems’
 Model unintended consequences of policy
design, product design features etc.
 Proprietary software – models developed
in real time with the client
 No army of researchers – the client’s
workshop team are the specialists
Strategy Foresight facilitates entire process by:
Deploying highly
experienced
facilitators
Designing specialist
workshop teams
Using processes
developed in the military
Stretch
Capture
Shape
Select
Prioritise

Policy formulation

Product design

Business intelligence

Crisis planning

Futures research
We develop multi-attribute ‘what if’ models for
decision support under uncertainty
Inputs
Outputs
The above example depicts 186,624 formal combinations – with
facilitation and proprietary software, this can reduced by over 99%
…..and provide clients with novel software to construct
their own scenarios and strategy alternatives
1. Input and outputs interchangeable manipulate both cause and effect
2. Ability to freeze and compare scenarios
and strategy alternatives
3. Reducing decision alternatives does not
require re-developing entire model
4. Easily updatable: visual, real time
systematic group exploration for
collective creativity and decision-making
5. Speed, efficiency and cost of facilitation
and model development is a fraction of
traditional consultancies
Case Study 1:
New financial products for uncertain futures
The Client
The Issue
•• Major
Major Insurance
Insurance
•• How
How to
to develop
develop new
new car
car
firm
firm
•• Director
Director of
of Research
Research
with
with direct
direct
reporting
reporting to
to CEO
CEO
insurance
insurance products
products in
in the
the
face
face of
of uncertain
uncertain futures
futures
e.g.
e.g. climate
climate shock,
shock, peak
peak oil,
oil,
financial
financial crash,
crash, war
war
•• What
What type
type of
of auto
auto
insurance
products
insurance products for
for
different
different customer
customer
segments
segments to
to remain
remain
ahead
ahead of
of the
the pack
pack
The Intervention
The Result
Developed an inference
model framework to allow
client to identify types of
products dependent upon
different future scenarios
• Range of niche products
•
identified for different
customer segments
including those if
financial crash occurred
• Implemented strategies
for financial crash
• Unearthed novel
solutions such as
car subscription and
instant SMS insurance
Case Study 2:
Sustainability Issues for large scale producers
The Client
The Issue
• Ministry of Environment
and Environmental
Protection Agency
• Develop scenarios and
appropriate strategies for
Extended Producer
Responsibility (EPR) system
• Minister of State for
Environment
• To comply with European
Directives of each member
state implementing EPR
policy
The Intervention
•
Multi-dimensional matrix
inference model developed
by convening disparate
EPR stakeholders
The Result
• Generation of different
future projections with
associated national
strategic directions
e.g. development
of regional high-tech
recycling industry sector
What’s the outcome?
• Accommodate multiple, alternative perspectives to anticipate
unintended consequences vs. prescribing single solution
• Anticipates consequences of decisions made under conditions of high
uncertainty, incomplete data and high decision stakes
• Manage genuine uncertainty by facilitating comparative judgements
on a sound methodological basis
Strategy Foresight unlocks latent organisational
capacity for you to move forward with purpose
“Organisations have no spare
mental capacity. They’re so
preoccupied dealing with their
present problems that its nigh-on
possible to engage them in a
conversation about the future”
SFP
Management Consulting Association (UK) Annual Report, 2009
Ravetz and Funtowicz, 1993
Strategy Foresight is flexible to client needs
Foresight Monitoring
Foresight Management
Foresight Community
Knowledge Centre
Client assignments
Online community
Sector Intelligence
Client updates
Symposia and workshops
Custom Research
Client crisis management
Thought Leadership
Insight
Research
Analysis
Advisory
Primary and Secondary
Research
Facilitation
Modelling sectors
Training facilitators
Foresight
Networking
Peer dialogue
Sharing next practice
SFP has completed 125+ projects across the globe
 Improving quality and quantity of
investment grade deal flow (UK)*
 Developing auto insurance products
for global threats (Sweden)
 Bioethics of drug redevelopment (UK)
 New strategic directions for FMCG
multinational (Sweden)*
 Predicting and mitigating risks to
corporate reputation (UK)*
 Sustainable mining techniques (Brazil)
* current projects
Contacting Strategy Foresight LLP
Strategy Foresight Partnership LLP
Innovation Warehouse
1 East Poultry Avenue
Farringdon
London EC1M 6HJ
Tel:
Fax:
Email:
Web:
07786 266878
0208 8612925
info@strategyforesight.org
www.strategyforesight.org