Dr. Ozcan Saritas
Ozcan.Saritas@manchester.ac.uk
(with special thanks to Mr. Blaz Golob for his kind contributions)
Manchester Institute of Innovation
Research - MIoIR
MIoIR brings together the strengths of PREST and CRIC
MIoIR has 5 major research themes in which we
are, or seek to be, world leaders:
1.
Technology strategy and innovation
management
2.
Service and organisational innovation
3.
Science and innovation policy – including
as a strong pillar: Foresight
4.
Innovation and sustainability
5.
Innovation and economic development
Institutional Foresight Activities
 Analysis: Evolution of Foresight practice: past, present & future
 Research: Innovation & Systemic Foresight Methodology
 Development: New tools & techniques (e.g. Evolutionary Scenarios)
 Practice: Supra-national, national, regional & sectoral applications
 Capacity building: Education & Training (PhD, MSc courses & Exec. ed.)
 Publication: Foresight - The journal of future studies, strategic thinking &
policy
 Innovation: What’s in the horizon? Scanning
3
New global context & drivers of change
• Increased financial, trade and investment flows
• Rapid and accelerating technological progress; ICTs,
biotechnology, fuel cells, nanotechnologies
• New international regulations and standards on trade,
quality, labor, environment, intellectual property rights
• New systems to design, produce, distribute, and manage
products and services
• Global value chains and production networks
• Other developments including globalisation, changes in
demographic structures and in cultural practices, and
environmental affairs
4
Western Balkans: Current challenges
• Emerging small economies coming out of crises, mostly fragile
• Struggling to identify new drivers of long-term development
• Pressures to exploit new markets, partnerships and to generate
progress to catch up with the more advanced economies
• Low technological base, and limited capacity to innovate and
attract early stage financing for technology start-ups
• Need to utilise new policy making and prioritisation tools to
reposition the region of the WBCs within the wider European and
global context and to prepare for the global challenges
successfully
5
Albania
Bosnia and
Herzegovina
Croatia
UNMIK/
Kosovo
The FYR of
Macedonia
Montenegro
Serbia
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Fight
against
corruption
Judicial
reform
Socio-Economic Development
Good
governance
ICT
t and
cohesion
Education
and health
n&restrctur
ng
Employmen
Regulatory
reform
Sustainable
developme
nt
Privatizatio
Fiscal
reform
Competitiveness
Macroecon
-omic
stability
Common challenges
Democracy&Rule of
Law
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EU 2020 & strategy
The Europe 2020 puts forward three mutually reinforcing
priorities:
(i) Smart growth: developing an economy based on
knowledge and innovation
(ii) Sustainable growth: promoting a more resource efficient,
greener and more competitive economy
(iii) Inclusive growth: fostering a high-employment economy
delivering social and territorial cohesion
EU 2020 strategy should inform the region’s own efforts at
developing a shared, long-term vision for the future.
7
Western Balkan 2020:
Building a vision for development and
growth
Objectives and expected outcomes
• Support of Knowledge Based competitiveness in the
context of globalization; changing demografic structures
and cultural practices; and increased concerns for
environmental affairs
• Achievement of good public governance, vibrant and
innovative private sectors, solid infrastructure, educated
population and affordable and fair social services,
consistent with the EU targets
• Exploitation of the region’s creative potentials and
available resources by opening opportunities for sectoral
development and thus increasing the role of the region in
the EU and global economy
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Focus areas for WB KS Foresight
Focus 1: Institutional strengthening and good governance
Implementation of the rule of law
Improved human rights
Fight against corruption
Increased security
Focus 2: Competitive Western Balkans economies in the global marketplace
Sound business and investment environment
High employment
Enhanced innovation capacity
Identification of key regional competencies
High-value added industry
Single market
Focus 3: Integrated and Cross-Sectoral Infrastructure Development
Provision of regional infrastructure
Focus 4: Building Knowledge-Based Societies
Improved education systems (primary, secondary, higher, VET)
Appropriate research and development policy
Developed information society
Culture and heritage
9
Who should be involved?
•
•
•
•
Private sector and industry
Civil society / general public
National and regional governments
Research, academia and higher education
institutions
• Scientific diasporas
• Media for dissemination
• and other relevant stakeholders
10
Key features of the methodology:
Systemic Foresight
• Anticipation and projections of long-term developments
• Interactive and participative methods of debate and analysis
• Forging new social networks
• Elaboration of strategic visions and priorities based on a
shared sense of commitment
• Implications for present-day decisions and actions
11
Four pillars of the Innovation Foresight
• Information to understand complex interactions between
products, services, users and other stakeholders in multiple
contexts in which these products and services are used
• Intelligence through scanning to explore trends, drivers of
change, weak signals, surprises and shocks, as well as
persistent problems
• Imagination in a holistic innovation ecosystem by integrating
Foresight, Creativity and Design
• Interaction with the systematic involvement of users /
stakeholders in early development stages in an inclusive
process with long-term perspective
with and effective Implementation!
12
Key questions to be addressed
What is feasible?
Technology
& Economics
What is possible?
Science &
Ecology
Systemic
Foresight
What is
desirable?
Socioeconomics
Politics & Values
13
Systemic Foresight Methodology

Systemic understanding
– Creates shared understanding and mutual
appreciation of issues at hand

Systems synthesis and modelling
– The input from scanning is synthesised into
conceptual models of the situations involved
in the real world

Systemic analysis and Selection
– Analyses the alternative models of the future
and ‘prioritises’ them, through intensive
negotiations among system actors and
stakeholders, to create an agreed model of
the future

System transformation
– Establishes the relationship between the
future and the present for a successful
change programme
Thought experiments

Systemic action
– Creates plans to inform present day decisions
for immediate change to provide structural
and behavioural transformations
Systemic Foresight & Methods
Understanding
Synthesis &
Models
Analysis &
Selection
Transformation
Actions
Scanning
Gaming
SWOT
Analysis
Backcasting
Priority Lists
Bibliometrics
/ Data Mining
Scenario
Planning
Multi Criteria
Analysis
Road
Mapping
Critical/Key
Technologies
Literature
Review
Wild Card
Weak Signals
Cross Impact
Analysis
Relevance
Trees
R&D
Planning
Interviews
Network
Analysis
Prioritisation
/ Delphi
Logic Charts
Action
Planning
Trends/Drivers
Indicators
Agent Based
Modelling
Scoring
Voting/Rating
Linear
Programming
Operational
Planning
System
Analysis
Modelling
/ Simulation
Benefit/Cost
/Risk Analysis
Strategic
Planning
Impact
Assessment
Panels
Conferences
Panels
Conferences
Panels
Conferences
Panels
Conferences
Information
Intelligence
Imagination
Inclusivity
Panels
Conferences
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Expected outcomes and impacts
A set of product and process oriented benefits:
• Priority areas in socio-economic development (e.g. joint investment
plans, joint financial schemas, harmonisation of policies, regional
technological and economic platforms)
• Collaborative research projects in the areas of mutual interest – e.g.
KBS and thus increased visibility and scientific excellence of the joint
institutes
• A valuable forum for exchanging ideas between academia, industry
and policy makers within the WBCs and with the EU
• A model for participatory ‘bottom-up’ policy making, strengthening
the innovation capacities in the region, building a shared vision in a
creative process, towards a more socially responsible economy and
industry
• Changing public perception towards knowledge and information
technologies, increased innovation and improved services, improved
legal framework
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©J.Ravetz 2009
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Dr. Ozcan Saritas
Ozcan.Saritas@manchester.ac.uk