Southeast Asian
Ministers of Education
Organization
Leading through Learning
The Purpose of SEAMEO
SEAMEO is a chartered
international and intergovernmental
organization established in 1965 to
promote cooperation in education,
science and culture in Southeast
Asia.
•
•
•
Establishes network and partnerships
Provides intellectual forums for policy makers and experts
Promotes sustainable human resource development
•
Develops and nurtures the capacities of teachers and school
managers in Southeast Asia through 20 SEAMEO specialist
institutions
Member Countries
Indonesia (1965)
Lao PDR (1965)
Malaysia (1965)
Philippines (1965)
Singapore (1965)
Thailand (1965)
Cambodia (1971)
Brunei Darussalam (1984)
Vietnam (1992)
Myanmar (1998)
Timor-Leste (2006)
Associate Members
Australia (1973)
France (1973)
New Zealand (1974)
Canada (1988)
Germany (1990)
Netherlands (1993)
Spain (2007)
United Kingdom (2013)
Affiliate Members
International Council for Open and
Distance Education (1999)
University of Tsukuba (2009)
British Council (2010)
Vision
The leading organization for enhancing regional
understanding and cooperation in education, science and
culture for a better quality of life in Southeast Asia
Mission
To enhance regional understanding, cooperation and unity
of purpose among Member Countries for a better quality of
life through
– the establishment of networks and partnerships,
– the provision of fora among policy makers and experts, and
– the promotion of sustainable human resource development
20 SEAMEO Regional Centres
and a Regional Network on Tropical Medicine and Public Health
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
11 Regional
Centres
for Education
2 Regional
Centres
for Culture
7 Regional
Centres
for Science
Areas of Expertise
Areas of Expertise
Areas of Expertise
Innovative Education
and Technology
Science and
Mathematics Education
Language Education
Vocational and
Technical Education
Higher Education
Special Education
Open Learning/ Distance
Education
Education Management
Teacher Capacity Building
1.
2.
3.
4.
Cultural Development
Archaeology
Fine Arts
History and Traditions
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Agriculture
Tropical Biology
Natural Resource
Management
Tropical Medicine
Public Health
Food and Nutrition
Futures, Foresight
and the Development
of Education in
Southeast Asia
Dr Witaya Jeradechakul
Director, SEAMEO Secretariat
Bangkok, Thailand
witaya@seameo.org
secretariat@seameo.org
Imagine the Future
https://alumni.tsukuba.ac.jp/
The Futures
1. Not just the Future but Futures
2. Futurists can not predict the future. No one can. A
prediction is intended to be true and accurate
statement. But we all can forecast futures. A forecast is
intended to be logical and useful statement about the
futures.
3. Futures studies help institutions and individuals envision,
design, and move towards preferred futures rather than
passively accepting whatever “will be”.
4. But to be effective the process of forecasting and
envisioning must be done continuously and not just a
one-shot activity
The Futures and Time Horizon
1. But when is the present, when does the future begin?
2. Most people are only interested in “now”.
3. Some planners and policy-makers may be interested in
the next five, ten, or maybe 15 years.
4. Futurists begin to take interest from between 20 to 50—
maybe 100—years from now.
5. Beyond 100 years is speculation, imagination and fiction.
The Futures and Time Horizon
DEGREE OF PARTICIPATION
futures research
planning
administration
MAGNITUDE OF INTENDED ACTIONS
TIMELINE AND
DEGREE OF FLUX
James Dator, University of Hawaii
Plausible versus Preferred Futures
Plausible Futures
Preferred Futures
What might happen: trends
forecasts, scenarios
Values, mission, vision,
Goals, strategies, actions
We need to understand this
Dreams and imagination
We need to create this
Impact and Uncertainty
high impact
Drivers
high impact, low uncertainty
Potential Drivers
high impact, high uncertainty
low uncertainty
high uncertainty
Background Trends
Inconsequential
low uncertainty, low impact
high uncertainty, low impact
low impact
What is Foresight
•
Systematic attempts to look into the
future (of science, society, economy –
and their interactions) in order to
promote social, environmental and
economic benefit
•
Foresight study is a process of
anticipating and managing changes
Key Elements of Foresight Study
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Structured Anticipation
Interactive and Participative
Methods
New networks
Strategic Visioning
For present day decision and action
Social Benefits and Disbenefits
Why Foresight is Important
1. Globalization
2. Constraints on government spending
3. Change in management and industrial
production
4. Changes in the structure of and
demand for knowledge production
5. Increasing uncertainties for the future
Framework of Foresight
Inputs
Foresight process
•
•
•
Analysis
Interpretation
Prospection
Outputs
Strategy
Strategic scanning
of environment/ Delphi
• Emerging issues/ trends analysis
• Systematic thinking/ causal layout
analysis
• Scenarios visioning, backcasting,
roadmaps
Reports, presentations, workshops
Multimedia
Strategy development and
strategic planning
Global picture of Education/ EFA/
MDGs including Issues & Trends
Country Priorities, Issues and
Challenges on Education + Regional
Initiatives on EFA Goals and MDGs
First Discussion + Analysis
(Global versus Country
Issues)
Futures/Preferred/ Worst
Case Scenario, etc
Pre-2015 versus Post-2015 –
What is missing and what
are the new targets
Consultations using Foresight
and 4 Futures
Gap Analysis
Second Discussion +
Analysis
Gap analysis
New set of education agenda
Delphi Survey
(2 rounds)
Selected target
groups
Verify the agenda
Presentation of Findings and the Post2015 Agenda to SEAMEO Education
Ministers and other Stakeholders
Example used by SEAMEO
in developing Post-2015
Education agenda
Range of Futures/ Foresight
between “Push and Pull”
PUSH
Foresight about
the future of
technology
aimed at
technology ..
and
priority setting
PULL
Foresight about
the future of
technology
aimed at
identifying
technology for
economic and
social change
Foresight about
social and
economic
needs and ways
in which these
might be solved
with the help of
Technology
Foresight about
social and
economic
needs aimed
at identifying
ways to alleviate
social and
economic
conditions
SEAMEO Consultation and Development of
Post-2015 Education Scenarios and PostEFA Education Agenda in Southeast Asia
Development of Post-2015 Education
Agenda in Southeast Asia
Drivers
of change
Post-2015 short
(2015-2020) &
long-term (2015-2035)
recommendations
to address the
4 future futures
Emerging
Issues &
Trends
guided by the 4 futures but other
parameters such as
the ASEAN Community,
values and cultures
4 Generic
Futures
of Manoa School
Achievements
In Education
Challenges
Next step:
Determining
preferred
future
Development of SEAMEO Strategic Plan
(2011-2020) Golden SEAMEO
12
SEAMEO
initiatives
scenario
building
key
success
factors
grouping the
initiatives:
unique, shared
and common
Imagine
Imagine there's no heaven
It’s easy if you try
No hell below us
Above us only sky
Imagine all the people living for today
Imagine there's no countries
It isn’t hard to do
Nothing to kill or die for
And no religion too
Imagine all the people living life in peace
You, you may say
I’m a dreamer, but I'm not the only one
I hope some day you'll join us
And the world will be as one
Imagine
Imagine no possessions
I wonder if you can
No need for greed or hunger
A brotherhood of man
Imagine all the people sharing all the world
You, you may say
I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one
I hope some day you'll join us
And the world will live as one
http://www.bretlsimmons.com/2011-07/leadership-foresight/
Thank you very much.
Futures, Foresight and the
Development of Education in
Southeast Asia
Dr Witaya Jeradechakul
Director, SEAMEO Secretariat
Bangkok, Thailand
witaya@seameo.org secretariat@seameo.org