Connecting people to
policy making: the
Futurium experiment
Franco Accordino
European Commission - DG CONNECT
Symposium "Generation Web 2.0:
using new technologies in the public sector in Europe",
Tallinn, 26-27 June 2014
Policy
Making 2.0
3D Printing
Cloud
computing
Complex
Big
Data
systems
Internet
Energy
of Things
Virtualisation
efficient
“Conventional” ICT (Silicon based,
Packet switching, Boolean, …)
2015-20
Challenges/Issues
Healthy
ageing
Trust
Security
privacy
Smart cities
Technologies
Financial
stability
Climate
changes
Foundations
Sustainability
Resource
efficiency
Resource
sharing
Interim/beta
status
Towards
immortality
Governance
Citizen empowerment
“Organic”
computing
“Play &
Rewind”
Policy
Making 3.0
Big Big Data
Bio-devices
Quantum
Energy
Internet
positive
Enhanced-humans
Simulated
worlds
ICT-Bio-Nano-Neuro-CognoQuantum convergence
2040-50
Today's socio-political drivers
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Data, computing and connectivity everywhere
Government's control on people
Individual empowerment
Inclusion and skills
Systemic automation
Erosion of human employment
Inter-generational tensions
Costs/impacts of public services
Rise of movements
Disaffection of people from public matters
Futurium purpose
To enable a collective inquiry
into the ideas and aspirations of
citizens, in order to feed future
policy reflections
Scientific evidence & people‘s opinion
Emotional, intuitive, holistic
Futures
(Visions)
Rational, scientific, analytical
Other factors
than evidence
Rules
and Laws
Social
Networks
Envision
DESIGN
Inform
Scientific
Evidence
Sense & Analyse data,
Identify issues and challenges,
Elicit knowledge
Inspire
Stakeholders
(Re-)shape
Policies
Policy makers
IMPLEMENTATION /
REVIEW
Trends
Real world
Impact on
individuals, society,
economy,
environment,
politics,
technologies,…
Crowd engagement strategy
1) Host conversations/dialogues with stakeholders
• Standard format: participatory brainstorming
• Contributors: scientists, citizens, policy makers,…
• Virtual (webinar) & in-person meetings
• Going local: Member States, schools, conferences…
• Viral process: loosely coordinated, but with simple, shared rules
2) Capture content into an open, standard online platform (futurium)
• Based on a fixed meta-model (futures, policies,…) & workflow
• Enabling co-creation (wiki), voting, forecasting, back casting, mapping,…
• Automatic semantic annotation, data mining, correlation, fact-finding
• Agent-based gaming and simulation
emergent collective intelligence
6/10
Futurium Data Model
Discrete Objects of
Collective Inquiry
2012
2020
2050
Trend
Future
Future
Futures
(visions)
Future
Every
European
Digital
Policy
pillars
p1
p7
actions
A1
A101
A
B
Future
Future
DAE
Policy Ideas
Agents
Future
p
C
A
?
Policy
p
A
Futures:
•
Desirability (emotional view)
•
Likelihood (rational/scientific view)
•
Causality: antecedent->consequent
•
Forecasting vs. back casting
•
Challenges and Opportunities
A
A
A
@
#
7/10
A
Policies:
•
Are expressed as S.M.A.R.T.
objectives
•
May be structured (e.g. pillars)
•
Atomic level: timed actions
•
Have a measurable impact
•
Other measurable attributes
(e.g. plausibility, innovation, …)
Agents:
•
Stakeholders in broad sense (EC,
MS, Regions, Industry, Citizens…)
•
Implementers (those who execute
the actions)
•
Verifiers
•
Decision makers
Foresight methodology
Sense Making
Co-Creation
•
•
•
•
•
•
Top-Down
Structured
Convergent
Bottom-up
Spontaneous
Emergent
Futurium
Reporting to
decision makers
Asynchronous sense-making steps over a
continuous online engagement process
Sense-making
Sense-making
Sense-making
Futurium co-creation
Outcomes
 120+ Events, 3000+ cocreators
 Breaking into new policy
making practices
 30+ Webinars
 Futurium model
 ~1800> Futurium
members
 20+ Requests for take-up
Digital
Futures
Futures
 11 Themes
 200+ Futures
 1800+ Evidence items
Futurium’s conceptual architecture
Social Media
(Twitter, FB, G+,…)
Participate
Participatory
Tools
Participate
Participate
Participate
Data Crawling
Policy Makers
Stakeholders
Open
Data
Data Gathering
mine &
visualise
mine &
visualise
Knowledge
Harvesting Tools
Real world data
11/10
Semantic tools: fact-finding,
search, text mining, …
Impact
Plausibility
Desirability
Gaming,
multi-agent
simulations,…
SMART policy attributes
Data Mining,
statistics,
visual
analytics
Polls
Blogs
Basic data types:
visions, policies,
evidence
Communities
Events
Library
Wiki
Messaging
Foresight tools:
workflows, Delphi, backcast diagrams…
More features
1) Futurium is a e-Participation platform to enable
grassroots engagement into foresight
2) Content co-created on Futurium is informative rather
than deliberative
3) Suitable to support civic society engagement in line with
Art 11 of the Treaty
More information
Paper: "The Futurium - a Foresight Platform for Evidence-Based and
Participatory Policymaking"
http://www.springerlink.com/openurl.asp?genre=a
rticle&id=doi:10.1007/s13347-013-0108-9
The futurium platform:
http://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/futurium/
Thanks!
Background Slides
eGovernment Action Plan
• Empower citizens and businesses
• Reinforce mobility in the Single Market
• Enable efficiency and effectiveness
• Create the necessary key enablers and preconditions to make things happen
By 2015 50% of citizens and 80% of
businesses should use eGovernment services.
Case Study: Digital Futures, reflections to prepare
for the renewal of the EU policy context in 2014
Inspired by long-term
advances of digital
technologies
"Hints"
Foresight Approach: backcasting + scenario planning
Visions
2040-2050
+ Anticipation
+ Evidence
+ Participation
+ Agility
Policy Ideas
Trends
2020+
2015-2025 (?)
Policy Frameworks
2010-2020 (Europe 2020)
Open Data
Internet
2010-2014
Barroso II
2015-2019
EC mandates
Futurium timeline
Mar 2012
Policy
choices
ICT2013
Nov 2013
Oct 2012
DAA Dublin
Jun 2013
Nov 2012
EP/EIF
(futurium
kick-off)
11 Compelling themes