The Future – Clear Blue Skies or Dark
Stormy Clouds
Baby Bugmuncher - Olliver, V 2001
What will your next hour look like?
- An Ice Breaker
- A exercise using one Future Tool
» -Futures Triangles
- An overview of two other tools
» - Causal Layered Analysis
» -Maps of Future Success
- Some examples from using these tools
- Future up
• Clear Blue skies or Dark Stormy clouds?
Ingredients for Today
-
Chocolate
Humour
Thinking
Controversy
Ice Breaker
- Turn to the person next to you
- Tel them something about yourself that is
unusual and which most people don’t know
- Very briefly I would like three people to
volunteer to stand up and tell us something
about the other person.
- Where are you from – tell us a bit about
yourselves and what you would like to get out
of today’s section.
Introduction
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Strategic Planning Process
Tell me of your experiences
Is it a “Rear View Mirror” exercise?
How do we get the most out of it if the pathway
forward is often difficult to see or visualise.
• How do you make your goals become reality and do
you have a sense that they can be realistically
achieved.
• What could the future look like?
FUTURES CONE
Possible
Potential
Plausible
Probable
Preferable
Potential
Time
Foresight Tools
Input methods: -
Analytical methods: -
Interpretive Methods: Prospective Methods: -
Environmental Scanning
Delphi Technique
Lit searches
Emerging Issues & Trend Analysis
Futures Triangles
Forecasting
Backcasting
Causal Layered Analysis
Systems Thinking
Scenarios
Visioning
Problem Precluding
Futures Triangle
Pull of the Future
Weight of the Past
The Push of the Present
Futures Triangle
• Weight of the Past:
• What has happened in the past, how have things changed, what forces
were at work to bring about the change, what barriers have there been to
change and what is getting in the way?
• The Push of the present.
• What are the issues of the present, who is applying pressure in a
particular area, what trends are pushing us towards probable futures and
if there is a change coming where is this change coming from and what
forces are at work?
• Pull of the future.
• What is pulling the issue into the future, what future can people see and
what are the different competing views of the future based on the history
and the present?
Exercise in the Future Triangles
• I need 3 groups of 3 volunteers to work in teams.
• One from each group will need to report back to the
workshop on their findings.
• These teams will work together while each of you
will work on your own to see how you apply the
Futures Triangle.
• There are three topics:
– Care for the Aged and Disabled
– Space Exploration/ Travel
– Regulations
Futures Triangle
• Weight of the Past:
• What has happened in the past, how have things changed, what forces
were at work to bring about the change, what barriers have there been to
change and what is getting in the way?
• The Push of the present.
• What are the issues of the present, who is applying pressure in a
particular area, what trends are pushing us towards probable futures and
if there is a change coming where is this change coming from and what
forces are at work?
• Pull of the future.
• What is pulling the issue into the future, what future can people see and
what are the different competing views of the future based on the history
and the present?
Exercise in the Future Triangles
• Report back and discussion around each topic
• What conclusions do each of you make?
• Discussion on the three topics:
– Care for the Aged and Disabled
– Space Exploration/ Travel
– Regulations
• Did this method assist you to think about what the
future would be like:
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Possible
Plausible
Probable
Preferable
Two Other Tools
• Detailed Causal Layered Analysis:
• Level One: Litany – Pop level – Visible - what you see
on the nightly news.
• Level Two: Systemic – Cultural, Social and Political
Causes.
• Level Three: Discourses - Concerned with Structure
and how society works – Denominated by
Worldviews.
• Level Four: Level of Myth and Metaphor – These are
the deep stories within us, how we make sense of
our lives. Myths and Legends.
Two Other Tools
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Problem Precluding:
Possibility of Success Evaluation (POSE)
Relative Freedom
Complexity
Environment
Problem Precluding
Possibility Of Success Evaluation
(POSE)
Increases
Increases in difficulty
Environment
Zone
Relative
Freedom
Zone
Zone
Zone
One
Two
Complexity
Three
Four
Increases
Two Examples
http://www.theagedcaregateway.com.au/
KPI Home Care Business
More Information
• Ken Wilber - http://www.kenwilber.com
• Ray Kurzweil - http://www.singularity.com/
• Swinburne Strategic Foresight http://www.future.swinburne.edu.au/courses/Maste
r-of-Strategic-Foresight-CMSF640/local
• Sohail Inayatullah http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5MJ_APlLc4
• Causal Layered Analysis http://scenariosforsustainability.org/recipes/cla.html
• POSE – markss@ueph.com.au
The Future – Clear Blue Skies or
Dark Stormy Clouds ?
Thank you for taking
part and may your
Future be what you
create it to be.