Stefan HOELTINGER

advertisement
University of Natural Resources and
Life Sciences, Vienna
Department of Economics and Social
Sciences
Optimal Supply Chain Design of
Green Biorefineries in Austria Assessment of Current and
Potential Policy Support Schemes
Stefan Hoeltinger, Johannes Schmidt, Martin Schoenhart & Erwin Schmid
Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid
Introduction –
Biorefineries and the bioeconomy
University of Natural Resources and
Life Sciences, Vienna
Department of Economics and Social
Sciences
 Biorefinery concept is the key to meet major objectives of a
Knowledge-Based Bio-Economy (KBBE)





Substitution of fossil fuels
Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions
Efficient use of biomass resources (for material and energy production)
Establish competitive bio-based industries
Increase regional value added
 „Biorefining is the sustainable processing of biomass
into a spectrum of marketable bio-based products
and bioenergy” IEA - Task 42 Biorefineries
Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid
2
Introduction –
The Green Biorefinery Concept
 Feedstocks
 green biomass (fresh grass, grass silage, sugar beet leaves, …)
University of Natural Resources and
Life Sciences, Vienna
Department of Economics and Social
Sciences
 Products
 organic acids, feed proteins, fibre products,
electricity and heat
 Drivers for the green biorefinery concept in Austria
 Expected oversupply of grassland areas due to changes
in agricultural policies and structures
 Alternative utilization for grassland biomass to preserve cultural landscape
 Employment opportunities for rural areas
Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid
3
Introduction –
The Green Biorefinery Concept
 Simplified process overview of the green biorefinery
demonstration plant in Utzenaich, Austria and biogas as reference
technology
Green biorefinery system
Reference system - biogas
Grass silage
Grass silage
Mechanical separation
Press juice
University of Natural Resources and
Life Sciences, Vienna
Department of Economics and Social
Sciences
Press cake
Membrane separation
Biogas + Chp
Ion exchange
chromatography
Electrodialysis
Amino acids
Lactic Acid
Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid
Heat
Electricity
Biogas + Chp
Heat
Electricity
4
Methods and Data
 Spatially explicit mixed integer programming model that
maximizes profits of the whole supply chain
by selecting optimal plant type, location and capacity
 The model considers
University of Natural Resources and
Life Sciences, Vienna
Department of Economics and Social
Sciences
 feedstock-, transportation-, operationand capital costs
 revenues from product sales
 Regional disparities in biomass supply and
heat demand determine profitability and
sustainability of biomass supply chains
 Spatially explicit data for
 Regional biomass supply (aggregated to 250 supply regions)
 heat demand (MWh) pro km² (Schmidt et al., 2010)
Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid
5
Methods and Data
 Sensitivity analysis - Monte-Carlo simulation
to deal with uncertainties of input parameters
 varying market conditions
 upscaling costs
 efficiency of conversion technologies
University of Natural Resources and
Life Sciences, Vienna
Department of Economics and Social
Sciences
 5 Policy Scenarios





No policy support schemes
Feed-in tariff 150 € per MWhelectricity
Feed-in tariff 100 € per MWhelectricity
Investment subsidy 20 % of total investment costs
Processing-aid for cascade utilization of grass silage in a green biorefinery
10 € per t dry matter (dm) grass silage
Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid
6
Results – feedstock assessment
 Positive Agricultural Sector Model Austria (PASMA)
 Supply curve for energetic and material utilization
of grass silage
 No effect on livestock
160
numbers
 Additional supplies through
140
120
Price (€ / t dm)
University of Natural Resources and
Life Sciences, Vienna
Department of Economics and Social
Sciences
100
 Intensification measures
80
(Nitrogen fertilizer inputs)
 Crop rotation changes on
arable land
 Increased feed imports
60
40
20
0
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Grass silage supply (Million t dm)
Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid
7
Results – feedstock assessment
 Feedstock prices paid by biogas plants and green
biorefineries for all 500 simulation runs
Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid
University of Natural Resources and
Life Sciences, Vienna
Department of Economics and Social
Sciences
8
Results - capacities
 Mean capacities and transportation distances for the realized
green biorefineries and biogas plants for all 500 Monte Carlo
simulation runs
University of Natural Resources and
Life Sciences, Vienna
Department of Economics and Social
Sciences
Biorefineries are more capital
intensive than biogas plants ->
larger capacities to benefit
from economies of scale for
capital costs
Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid
9
Results – profitability
 Relative revenues for different policy scenarios
University of Natural Resources and
Life Sciences, Vienna
Department of Economics and Social
Sciences
Subsidies
Amino acids
Lactic acid
Electricity
Heat
 Guaranteed feed-in tariffs contribute to up to 55 % of biogas revenues
 Revenues of green biorefineries largely dependent on market prices for organic acids
Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid
10
Results – profitability
 Relative costs for different policy scenarios
University of Natural Resources and
Life Sciences, Vienna
Department of Economics and Social
Sciences
Feedstock costs
Transportation costs
Variable operation costs
Capital costs
 Feedstock costs contribute about 50 % of biogas costs
 Energy intensive downstream and separation technologies are the main drivers for the
costs green biorefineries
Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid
11
Results – profitability
 Boxplots for the profitability of green biorefineries
(GBR) and biogas plants
University of Natural Resources and
Life Sciences, Vienna
Department of Economics and Social
Sciences
 Higher profits for green biorefineries, but also higher uncertainty
Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid
12
Conclusions and outlook
 Green biorefineries can offer a profitable utilization
pathway for grass silage in Austria under favourable
market conditions
 Profitability of green biorefineries is very sensitive to
University of Natural Resources and
Life Sciences, Vienna
Department of Economics and Social
Sciences
 market prices of organic acids
 the development of separation and downstream costs
 upscaling costs from pilot- to industrial scale
 Profitability of biogas plants is largely dependent on the current policy
support schemes (feed-in tariffs)
 Sustainability assessment along the whole supply chain to prove
ecological sustainability of green biorefinery concept
 More intensive cultivation methods and longer transportation distances
Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid
13
Thank you for your attention
University of Natural Resources and
Life Sciences, Vienna
Department of Economics and Social
Sciences
University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna
Department of Economics and Social Sciences
Institute for Sustainable Economic Development
Stefan Hoeltinger, Johannes Schmidt, Martin Schoenhart & Erwin Schmid
Feistmantelstraße 4, A-1180 Vienna
Tel.: +43 1 47654-3650
[email protected] , www.boku.ac.at/454.html
26.06.2012
Hoeltinger, Schmidt, Schoenhart, Schmid
1414
Download