Policies for Energy Technology Innovation Systems Arnulf Grubler IIASA & Yale University Energy Technology Innovation Energy technology innovation is the embodied result of institutionalized research, development and deployment efforts driven by collective learning processes involving both suppliers and users of technologies operating in specific contexts of adoption environments and incentive structures. GEA Chapter 24 © GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org 2 Chapter 24 Highlights & News ● New concepts: -- Systems perspective (ETIS) -- “granularity” of technologies/projects ● New quantifications: - ETIS resource mobilization - R&D in BRIMCS - knowledge depreciation - impacts of policy misalignments and volatility - innovation portfolio biases ● Generic criteria for policy design: -- Knowledge: feedbacks (experimentation), spillovers (globalization) -- Policy: stability, alignment -- Targets: systems, and portfolio based ● Literature review + research + 20 GEA case studies © GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org 3 World – Primary Energy Transitions changeover time Δts: 80-130 years World Primary Energy Substitution Begin of energy policy focus: Δt’s >2000 yrs 100 modern fuels: oil, gas, electricity Percent in Primary Energy traditional biomass Δt -130 yrs 75 Δt -80 yrs 50 coal 25 Δt +130 yrs Δt +90 yrs 0 1850 © GEA 2012 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 www.globalenergyassessment.org 2000 2025 4 public policy & leverage shared expectations entrepreneurs / risk taking ACTORS & INSTITUTIONS entrepreneurs / risk taking resource inputs public policy & leverage RESOURCES RESOURCES www.globalenergyassessment.org cost learning performance generation TECHNOLOGY CHARACTERISTICS KNOWLEDGE cost resource inputs © GEA 2012 learning performance shared expectations generation TECHNOLOGY CHARACTERISTICS The KNOWLEDGE GEA ETIS Framework 5 ETIS at Work: US Solar Thermal 1982-1992 © GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org 6 Post Fossil Technologies Cost Trends © GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org 7 Cumulative Experience /Learning Favors “granular” Technologies category technology learning data for: cumulative production (units) learning # exp period rate energy end-use World World World World World World World World World US US US US US Transitors DRAMs Automobiles Washing machines Refrigerators Dishwashers Freezers (upright) Freezers (chest) Dryers Hand-held calculators CF light bulbs A/C & heat pumps Air furnaces Solar hot water heaters >1 >1 >2 >2 >2 >6 >6 >5 >3 >4 >4 >1 >1 >1 average for end-use technologies energy supply PV modules Wind turbines Heat pumps Gas turbines Pulverized coal boilers Hypropower plants Nuclear reactors Ethanol Coal power plants Coal power plants Gas pipelines Gas combined cycles Hydrogen production (SRM) LNG production World World S, CH World World OECD US, France Brazil OECD US US OECD World World average for suppy technologies average for supply, excluding nuclear © GEA 2012 10^18 10^11 10^9 10^9 10^9 10^8 10^8 10^8 10^8 10^8 10^8 10^8 10^8 10^6 10^9 >1 >1 <1 >4 >6 ~5 <1 <1 <1 <1 <1 <1 >1 >1 10^10 10^5 10^5 10^4 10^3 10^3 10^3 10^3 10^3 10^3 10^3 10^3 10^2 10^2 10^4 1960-2010 1975-2005 1900-2005 1965-2008 1964-2008 1968-2007 1970-2003 1970-1998 1969-2003 early 1970s 1992-1998 1972-2009 1953-2009 1974-2003 40 16 - 24 9 - 14 33 ±9 9 ±4 27 ±7 10 ±5 8 ±2 28 ±7 30 16 18 ±1 31 ±3 -3 20 1975-2009 18-24 1975-2009 10-17 1982-2008 2 - 21 1958-1980 10-13 1940-2000 6 1975-1993 1 1971-2000 -20 - -47 1975-2009 21 1975-1993 8 1950-1982 1-6 1984-1997 4 1981-1997 10 1980-2005 27 1980-2005 14 8 12 Draft, table will be replaced by graphic in final presentation8 www.globalenergyassessment.org Knowledge Knowledge Depreciation Depreciation Rates Rates (% (% per per year) year) Degree of knowledge stock turnover (policy & human capital volatility) empirical studies reviewed GEA KM24 (2012) and empirical studies reviewed GEA KM24 (2012) and modeled R&D deprecation in US manufacturing (Hall, 2007) modeled R&D deprecation in US manufacturing (Hall, 2007) Degree of technological obsolescence (rate of innovation) Low High Engineering designs US: <5% PV Japan: OECD Wind US: nuclear R&D: 30% 10% 10 – 40% Computers: Chemicals, 32% Drugs: Electrical, 15-20% Aircraft, Miscell. Machinery: Liberty ships 32-36% >20% manufct. US: France 40% breeder reactors: 50-60% Service industries: 95% High © GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org 9 ETIS Actors & Institutions Institutional design for technology innovation remains amiss of importance of BRICs in energy R&D and “minimizes” global knowledge spillovers National Energy R&D (public+private) Energy R&D Investments (public+private) 25 Renew ables and Hydrogen 20 Billion US$2005 PPP International Clean-tech collaborations IEA: Implementing Agreements (# of IEA implementation agreements) (number of agreements, by category) End-Use: Buildings electricity+other 15 10 Fossil f uels fossil fuels End-Use: Transport nuclear End-Use: Electricity renewables Cross-Cutting efficiency 5 Fussion Pow er End-Use: Industry 0 OECD BRICs 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 IEA members OECD vs BRICs IEA non-members © GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org 10 World ETIS Resource Mobilization Billion $2005 innovation (RD&D) End-use & efficiency Fossil fuel supply Nuclear Renewables Electricity (Gen+T&D) Other* Total non-OECD non-OECD share >>8 >12 >10 >12 >>1 >>4 >50 market formation diffusion 5 300-3500 >>2 200-550 0 3-8 ~20 >20 ~100 450-520 <15 n.a. <150 1000 - <5000 ~20 ~30 >40% <20% ~400 - ~1500 40% - 30% * hydrogen, fuel cells, other power & storage technologies, basic energy research © GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Source: GEA KM24, 2012 11 Public Policy-induced ETIS Investments billion US$2005 © GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Source: Wilson et al. Nature CC 2012 12 shared expectations learning Future Needs Analysis & Modelling Social Rates of Return Learning Effects performance entrepreneurs / risk taking Roadmaps & Portfolios Technology Collaborations R,D&D (public $) Market Formation Diffusion Support public policy & leverage resource inputs cost ACTORS & INSTITUTIONS generation TECHNOLOGY CHARACTERISTICS KNOWLEDGE RESOURCES key Directable (Activities) NonDirectable (Outputs) CLIMATE MITIGATION shared expectations learning Future Needs Analysis & Modelling Social Rates of Return Learning Effects performance entrepreneurs / risk taking Roadmaps & Portfolios Technology Collaborations R,D&D (public $) Market Formation Diffusion Support public policy & leverage resource inputs cost ACTORS & INSTITUTIONS generation TECHNOLOGY CHARACTERISTICS KNOWLEDGE RESOURCES key Directable (Activities) NonDirectable (Outputs) supply : end-use (relative effort) CLIMATE MITIGATION Gregory Nemet (Univ. Wisconsin) Charlie Wilson (Tyndall Centre) GEA Chapter 24 Authors and Resources LAs: Francisco Aguayo (Colegio de México) Kelly Gallagher (Tufts University) Arnulf Grubler (IIASA & Yale), CLA Marko Hekkert (Utrecht University) Kejun Jiang (ERI, China) Lynn Mytelka (UNU) Lena Neij (Lund University) Gregory Nemet (Univ. Wisconsin) Charlie Wilson (Tyndall Centre) CAs: Leon Clarke (JGCRI, University of Maryland) Per Dannemand Andersen (Denmark TU) Laura Diaz Anadon (Harvard University) Sabine Fuss (IIASA) Martin Jakob (ETH Zürich) Daniel Kammen (University of CA, Berkeley) Ruud Kempener (Harvard University) Osamu Kimura (CRIEPI, Japan) Bernadette Kiss (Lund University) Anastasia O'Rourke (BigRoom Inc.) Robert N. Schock (World Energy) Paulo Teixeira de Sousa Jr. (Univ.Mato Grosso) CAs: Leon Clarke (JGCRI, University of Maryland) Resources: Per Dannemand Andersen (Denmark TU) Chapter 24: http://www.globalenergyassessment.org/Chapters/Chapter 24 Laura Diaz Anadon (Harvard University) Case studies: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/ Sabine Fuss (IIASA) TransitionstoNewTechnologies/CaseStudy_home.en.html Martin Jakob (ETH Zürich) Daniel Kammen (University of CA, Berkeley) Related publications: Ruud Gallagher, Kempener (Harvard K.S., A. Grubler, L.University) Kuhl, G. Nemet, C. Wilson, 2012. The Energy Technology Innovation System. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 37:137-62 doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-060311-133915. Osamu Kimura (CRIEPI, Japan) Wilson, C., Grubler, A., Gallagher, K. S., Nemet, G.F., 2012. Marginalization of end-use technologies in energy innovation Bernadette Kiss (Lund University) for climate protection. Nature Climate Change, 2(11), 780-788, doi: 10.1038/nclimate1576. Anastasia O'Rourke (BigRoom Inc.) A. Grubler and C. Wilson (eds.), Energy Technology Innovation: Learning from Historical Successes and Failures, Robert Schock (World Energy) CambridgeN. University Press (in press) Paulo Teixeira de Sousa Jr. (Univ.Mato Grosso)