GEA KM18 Urbanization
Urban Energy Systems
Findings from the Global Energy
Assessment
Note: All material presented here is from GEA Chapter 18, available at www.globalenergyassment.org
suggested citation:
Grubler, A., X. Bai, T. Buettner, S. Dhakal, D. J. Fisk, T. Ichinose, J. E. Keirstead,
G. Sammer, D. Satterthwaite, N. B. Schulz, N. Shah, J. Steinberger and H. Weisz, 2012:
Chapter 18 - Urban Energy Systems. In Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, and IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, pp. 1307-1400.
GEA KM18 Urbanization
Main Messages
1. The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy)
2. Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020
(all long-term energy growth will be urban)
3. City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints
4. Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting
(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies
5. Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities
(high density enables demand/supply management but calls for
low waste/~zero-impact systems)
6. Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management of
urban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energytransport, land-use-transport systems integration,..)
7. Governance Paradox:
- largest leverage from systemic change,
- but requires overcoming policy fragmentation
and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking
3
GEA KM18 Urbanization
Millions
Population by Settlement Type/Size
10000
10,000,000 and more
9000
5,000000 to 10,000,000
8000
1,000,000 to 5,000,000
7000
100,000 to 1,000,000
6000
Less than 100,000
Rural
5000
Number of
agglomerations
in 2005
13
30
340
3192
??
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
growth
dominated
by small &
medium sized
cities!
GEA KM18 Urbanization
Main Messages
1. The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy)
2. Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020
(all long-term energy growth will be urban)
3. City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints
4. Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting
(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies
5. Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities
(high density enables demand/supply management but calls for
low waste/~zero-impact systems)
6. Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management of
urban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energytransport, land-use-transport systems integration,..)
7. Governance Paradox:
- largest leverage from systemic change,
- but requires overcoming policy fragmentation
and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking
7
GEA KM18 Urbanization
Annex-I: Per Capita Urban Direct Final Energy Use
(red= above national average, blue = below national average)
n=132
GEA KM18 Urbanization
Non-Annex-I: Per Capita Urban Direct Final Energy Use
(red= above national average, blue = below national average)
n=68
GEA KM18 Urbanization
Direct and Embodied Urban Energy Use in Asian Cities
Energy Use (EJ)
4.0
3.5
Embodied
3.0
Direct
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Tokyo (90)
Tokyo (95)
Beijing (92)
Beijing (97)
Shanghai
(92)
Shanghai
(97)
GEA KM18 Urbanization
Urban Energy & GHG Accounting Conundrums
• Tradeoffs between comprehensiveness, policy relevance,
& data availability; Key: systems boundaries
• Production accounting
-- clear methodology (IPCC/OECD)
-- data availability (>200 cities)
-- policy/benchmark relevant (industry, buildings, transport)
• Consumption accounting
-- comprehensiveness (with full accounting)
-- intricate methodological issues (no agreed standard,
local prices vs national, vs multi-regional I-O)
-- data nightmare (estimates for only few megacities)
GEA KM18 Urbanization
Main Messages
1. The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy)
2. Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020
(all long-term energy growth will be urban)
3. City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints
4. Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting
(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies
5. Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities
(high density enables demand/supply management but calls for
low waste/~zero-impact systems)
6. Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management of
urban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energytransport, land-use-transport systems integration,..)
7. Governance Paradox:
- largest leverage from systemic change,
- but requires overcoming policy fragmentation
and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking
13
GEA KM18 Urbanization
China - Air
Pollution
(SO
)
Exposure
2
East China (2000)
Tg SO2 x
million people
3.3
Hong Kong
1.9
3.4
Shanghai
0.3
2.1
1.8
Beijing
1.4
1.7
0.6
GEA KM18 Urbanization
Europe – Energy Demand Densities
blue = renewable supply density threshold <0.5-1 W/m2
WEU >79% EEU >66% of energy demand
GEA KM18 Urbanization
Main Messages
1. The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy)
2. Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020
(all long-term energy growth will be urban)
3. City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints
4. Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting
(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies
5. Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities
(high density enables demand/supply management but calls for
low waste/~zero-impact systems)
6. Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management of
urban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energytransport, land-use-transport systems integration,..)
7. Governance Paradox:
- largest leverage from systemic change,
- but requires overcoming policy fragmentation
and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking
20
GEA KM18 Urbanization
SynCity Simulations of Urban Policy Leverages
Medium to
814 Energy Systems
high density
Analysis
Arnulf Grubler
22
GEA KM18 Urbanization
Main Messages
1. The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy)
2. Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020
(all long-term energy growth will be urban)
3. City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints
4. Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting
(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies
5. Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities
(high density enables demand/supply management but calls for
low waste/~zero-impact systems)
6. Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management of
urban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energytransport, land-use-transport systems integration,..)
7. Governance Paradox:
- largest leverage from systemic change,
- but requires overcoming policy fragmentation
and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking
23
GEA KM18 Urbanization
GEA KM18 Authors & Resources
Lead Authors:
Xuemei Bai, Thomas Buettner, Shobhakar Dhakal, David J. Fisk, Arnulf Grubler
(CLA), Toshiaki Ichinose, James Keirstead,
Gerd Sammer, David Satterthwaite, Niels B. Schulz,
Nilay Shah, Julia Steinberger, Helga Weisz
Contributing Authors:
Gilbert Ahamer*, Timothy Baynes*, Daniel Curtis*, Michael Doherty, Nick Eyre*,
Junichi Fujino*, Keisuke Hanaki, Mikiko Kainuma*,
Shinji Kaneko, Manfred Lenzen, Jacqui Meyers, Hitomi Nakanishi, Victoria
Novikova*, Krishnan S. Rajan, Seongwon Seo*,
Ram Manohar Shrestha*, P.R. Shukla*, Alice Sverdlik
(*Contributors to GEA KM18 city energy data base)
Resources:
Online: www.globalenergyassessment.org
Chapter 18 (main text)
Supporting material: GEA KM18 working papers and city energy data base
A. Grubler and D. Fisk (eds), Energizing Sustainable Cities:
Assessing Urban Energy, Earthscan (2012)