Berlin, June 25 2012
Markus Wråke, ETP Project Leader, Head of Energy Supply Unit
© OECD/IEA 2012
ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures
2DS
a vision of a sustainable
energy system of reduced
Greenhouse Gas (GHG)
and CO2 emissions
The 2°C Scenario
4DS
reflecting pledges by
countries to cut
emissions and boost
energy efficiency
The 4°C Scenario
6DS
where the world is now
heading with potentially
devastating results
The 6°C Scenario
© OECD/IEA 2012
Sustainable future still in reach
Are we on track to
reach a clean
energy future?
Can we get on
track?
Is a clean energy
transition urgent?
NO ✗
YES ✓
YES ✓
© OECD/IEA 2012
Clean energy: slow lane to fast track
Cleaner coal power
Nuclear power
Renewable power
CCS in power
CCS in industry
Industry
Buildings
Progress is too slow in
almost all technology areas
Significant action is required
to get back on track
Fuel economy
Electric vehicles
Biofuels for transport
© OECD/IEA 2012
A smart, sustainable energy system
Co-generation
Renewable energy resources
Centralised fuel production,
power and storage
Distributed
energy resources
Smart energy
system control
H2 vehicle
Surplus heat
EV
A sustainable energy system is a smarter,
more unified and integrated energy system
© OECD/IEA 2012
Low-carbon electricity: a clean core
45 000
Other
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Nuclear
Biomass and waste
Oil
Gas with CCS
Gas
Coal with CCS
Coal
40 000
35 000
TWh
30 000
25 000
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
0
2009
2020
2030
2040
2050
Renewables will generate more than
half the world’s electricity in the 2DS
© OECD/IEA 2012
Wind and solar must grow quickly
Hydro
Nuclear
CSP
2020-50
PV
Wind,
offshore
2010-20
Wind,
onshore
2006-10
Biomass
Gas with CCS
Coal with CCS
0
2
4
6
8
GW per year
10
12
14
16
An additional USD 1.2 trillion are needed in the EU power
sector, but fuel savings amount to USD 2.7 trillion
© OECD/IEA 2012
Power Generation from Natural Gas
TWh
Natural Gas: a transitional fuel
7 500
5 000
2 500
0
2009
2020
OECD
2030
China
India
2040
2050
Other non-OECD
Around 2030, natural gas becomes ‘high carbon’
© OECD/IEA 2012
The CCS infant must grow quickly
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Note: Capture rates in MtCO2 /year
© OECD/IEA 2012
GtCO2
Industry must become more efficient
12
6DS
10
Other industries
8
6
Chemicals and
petrochemicals
Aluminium
4
Pulp and paper
2
Iron and steel
0
2010
Cement
2020
2030
2040
2050
Significant potential for enhanced energy efficiency
can be achieved through best available technologies.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Electric vehicles need to come of age
Passenger LDV sales (million)
200
FCEV
Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles
Electricity
150
Plug-in hybrid diesel
Plug-in hybrid gasoline
Diesel hybrid
100
Gasoline hybrid
CNG/LPG
50
Diesel
0
2000
Gasoline
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
More than 90% of new light duty vehicles need
to be propelled by an electric motor in 2050
© OECD/IEA 2012
Translating targets into action
8
million sales/year
7
Manufacturers
production/sales
6
5
Projection
(Estimated from
each country's
target)
Projection
(Estimated from
each country's
target)
4
3
2
1
0
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2018
2020
2020
Government targets need to be backed by policy action
© OECD/IEA 2012
Building sector challenges differ
Billion households
,2.5
,2.0
,1.5
,1.0
,0.5
,0.0
2010
OECD
2020
2030
2040
2050
Non OECD
75% of current buildings in OECD will still be standing in 2050
Heating & Cooling: huge potential
Renewable heat
Integration with electricity
District heating and
cooling network
Co-generation
Surplus heat
Heating and cooling account for 46% of global energy use.
Their huge potential for cutting CO2 emissions is often neglected.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Emissions must be eliminated by 2075
A zero-carbon future looks possible but will be very
challenging, even if 2050 targets are met in the 2DS.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Clean energy investment pays off
Total savings
Fuel savings
Additional
investment
Additional investment
Power
With
price effect
Industry
Transport
Without
price effect
Residential
Commercial
Undiscounted
Fuel savings
3%
Biomass
Coal
10%
Oil
- 160
- 120
- 80
- 40
0
40
Gas
USD trillion
Every additional dollar invested in clean energy
can generate 3 dollars in return.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Recommendations to Governments
1. Create an investment climate of confidence
in clean energy
2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy
efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future
3. Accelerate innovation and public research,
development and demonstration (RD&D)
© OECD/IEA 2012
For much more, please visit
www.iea.org/etp
© OECD/IEA 2012