Tapping technology’s potential
to secure a clean energy future
Ms. Maria van der Hoeven
Executive Director
International Energy Agency
Luxembourg, 28 September 2012
© OECD/IEA 2012
Key messages
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Sustainable energy future is still feasible and
technologies exist to take us there
Despite potential of technologies, progress is too
slow at the moment
A clean energy future requires systemic thinking
and deployment of a variety of technologies
It even makes financial sense to do it!
Government policy is decisive in unlocking the
potential
Energy demand and emissions have
doubled in the past 40 years


From 6000 Mtoe to 12 000 Mtoe
Rapid demand growth outside OECD


CO2 emissions from 14Gt to 30Gt
Since 2005, non-OECD countries
emit more than OECD
Source: IEA statistics
ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures
2DS
a vision of a sustainable
energy system of reduced
Greenhouse Gas (GHG)
and CO2 emissions
The 2°C Scenario
4DS
reflecting pledges by
countries to cut
emissions and boost
energy efficiency
The 4°C Scenario
6DS
where the world is now
heading with potentially
devastating results
The 6°C Scenario
© OECD/IEA 2012
Clean energy: slow lane to fast track
Cleaner coal power
Nuclear power
Renewable power
CCS in power
CCS in industry
Industry
Buildings
Progress is too slow in
almost all technology areas
Significant action is required
to get back on track
Fuel economy
Electric vehicles
Biofuels for transport
© OECD/IEA 2012
Energy RD&D has slipped in priority
25
12%
6%
10
4%
5
4
3
2
2%
0
1986
Energy RD&D
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
South Africa
1982
Russia
1978
Mexico
1974
India
0%
China
0
1
Brazil
USD billion
15
2008 non-IEA country
spending
USD billion
8%
Share of energy RD&D in total R&D
10%
20
Share of energy RD&D in total R&D
© OECD/IEA 2012
A smart, sustainable energy system
Co-generation
Renewable energy resources
Centralised fuel production,
power and storage
Distributed
energy resources
Smart energy
system control
H2 vehicle
Surplus heat
EV
A sustainable energy system is a smarter,
more unified and integrated energy system
© OECD/IEA 2012
All flexibility sources will be needed
Dispatchable
power plants
Demand side
Response
(via smart grid)
Energy storage
facilities
Interconnection
with adjacent
markets
Industrial
Biomass-fired
power plant
residential
Pumped hydro
facility
Scandinavian
interconnections
© OECD/IEA 2012
Renewables need to dominate EU electricity
5 000
100%
4 500
90%
4 000
80%
3 500
70%
2 500
2 000
13%
17%
Other
renewables
Other
renewables
Other
renewables
10%
Wind
Wind
Wind
21%
Generation share
TWh
3 000
4%
4%
28%
28%
7%
60%
Solar
Solar
Solar
9%
50%
40%
1 500
30%
1 000
20%
500
10%
0
0%
22%
Hydro
Hydro
Hydro
13%
Nuclear
Nuclear
Nuclear
1%
53%
23%
Fossil
w CCS
Fossil
w CCS
Fossil w CCS
27%
7%
2%
4DS
2009
2009
10%
2009
Fossil
w/ow/o
CCS CCS
Fossil
Fossil w/o CCS
4DS
2DS 2DS
2050
2050 2050
Renewables cover two-thirds of the electricity mix in 2050 in the 2DS,
with wind power alone reaching a share of 30% in the mix.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Natural gas as a transitional fuel
Power generation from natural gas increases to 2030 in the
2DS and the 4DS.
From 2030 to 2050, generation differs markedly.


TWh
10 000
4DS
4DS
10 000
7 500
7 500
5 000
5 000
2 500
2 500
0
2009
2020
2030
2040
OECD
2050
2DS
2DS
0
2009
2020
2030
Non-OECD
2040
2050
Natural gas-fired power generation must decrease after 2030 to
meet the CO2 emissions projected in the 2DS scenario.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Global Passenger LDV sales (million)
Electric vehicles need to come of age
200
FCEV
Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles
Electricity
150
Plug-in hybrid diesel
Plug-in hybrid gasoline
Diesel hybrid
100
Gasoline hybrid
CNG/LPG
50
Diesel
0
2000
Gasoline
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
More than 90% of new light duty vehicles need to be
propelled by an electric motor in 2050
© OECD/IEA 2012
Clean energy investment pays off
Additional investment
Additional
investment
Power
Industry
Transport
Fuel savings
Residential
Total savings
Commercial
Undiscounted
Fuel savings
Biomass
10%
Coal
Oil
- 120
- 80
- 40
USD trillion
0
40
Gas
Every additional dollar invested in clean energy
can generate 3 dollars in return.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Recommendations to Governments
1. Create an investment climate of confidence in
clean energy
2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy
efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future
3. Accelerate innovation and public research,
development and demonstration (RD&D)
© OECD/IEA 2012
For much more, please visit
www.iea.org/etp
© OECD/IEA 2012