Energy Technology Perspectives
for a Clean Energy Future
Ms. Maria van der Hoeven
Executive Director
International Energy Agency
Madrid, 20 September 2012
© OECD/IEA 2012
Key messages
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
A sustainable energy future is still feasible and
technologies exist that can take us there
Despite the potential of technologies, progress is
too slow at the moment
A clean energy future requires systemic thinking
and deployment of a variety of technologies
It even makes financial sense to do it!
Government policy is decisive in unlocking the
potential
Energy demand and emissions have
doubled in the past 40 years


From 6000 Mtoe to 12 000 Mtoe
Rapid demand growth outside OECD


CO2 emissions from 14Gt to 30Gt
Since 2005, non-OECD countries
emit more than OECD
Source: IEA statistics
ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures
2DS
a vision of a sustainable
energy system of reduced
CO2 and other
Greenhouse Gas (GHG)
emissions
4DS
reflecting pledges by
countries to cut
emissions and boost
energy efficiency
6DS
where the world is now
heading, with
potentially devastating
results
The 4°C Scenario
The 2°C Scenario
The 6°C Scenario
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ETP-2012: need to halve CO2 by 2050


To achieve ambitious climate goals, the world needs to cut energyrelated CO2 emissions by 50% from today’s levels…
…but as populations grow and energy consumption inevitably rises,
the reduction challenge is even higher: a gap of 24-42 Gt in 2050
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Clean energy: slow lane to fast track
Cleaner coal power
Nuclear power
Renewable power
CCS in power
CCS in industry
Industry
Buildings
Progress is too slow in
almost all technology areas
Significant action is required
to get back on track
Fuel economy
Electric vehicles
Biofuels for transport
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Energy RD&D has slipped in priority
12%
25
6%
10
4%
5
4
3
2
2%
1
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
Energy efficiency
Fossil fuels
Renewable energy
Nuclear
Hydrogen and fuel cells
Other power and storage technologies
Other cross cutting technologies/research
Share of energy RD&D in total R&D
South Africa
1986
Russia
1982
Mexico
1978
India
1974
China
0
0%
0
Brazil
USD billion
15
2008 non-IEA country
spending
USD billion
8%
Share of energy RD&D in total R&D
10%
20
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A smart, sustainable energy system
Co-generation
Renewable energy resources
Centralised fuel production,
power and storage
Distributed
energy resources
Smart energy
system control
H2 vehicle
Surplus heat
EV
A sustainable energy system is a smarter,
more unified and integrated energy system
© OECD/IEA 2012
Renewables need to dominate EU electricity
5 000
100%
4 500
90%
4 000
80%
3 500
70%
2 500
2 000
13%
17%
Other
renewables
Other
renewables
Other
renewables
10%
Wind
Wind
Wind
21%
Generation share
TWh
3 000
4%
4%
28%
28%
7%
60%
Solar
Solar
Solar
9%
50%
40%
1 500
30%
1 000
20%
500
10%
0
0%
22%
Hydro
Hydro
Hydro
13%
Nuclear
Nuclear
Nuclear
1%
53%
23%
Fossil
w CCS
Fossil
w CCS
Fossil w CCS
27%
7%
2%
4DS
2009
2009
10%
2009
Fossil
Fossil
w/ow/o
CCS CCS
Fossil w/o CCS
4DS
2DS 2DS
2050
2050 2050
Renewables cover two-thirds of the electricity mix in 2050 in the 2DS, with
wind power alone reaching a share of 30% in the mix.
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Renewables: mid-term forecast for Spain
TWh
Spain forecast renewable generation
120

Drivers:



Abundant renewable
resources
Strong grid and
advanced integration of
variable renewable
sources
Challenges:


Overcapacity of
electricity system
Need to correct for
persistently high tariff
deficit
100
80
60
40
20
0
2011
120
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Hydropower
Wind onshore
Solar PV
Bioenergy
CSP
Wind offshore
2017
Spain power capacity vs peak load (GW)
100
80
60
40
20
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Nuclear
Hydropower
Combustible fuels
Solar
Wind
Peak load
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Natural gas as a transitional fuel
Power generation from natural gas increases to 2030 in the
2DS and the 4DS.
From 2030 to 2050, generation differs markedly.


TWh
10 000
4DS
4DS
10 000
7 500
7 500
5 000
5 000
2 500
2 500
0
2009
2020
2030
2040
OECD
2050
2DS
2DS
0
2009
2020
2030
Non-OECD
2040
2050
Natural gas-fired power generation must decrease after 2030 to
meet the CO2 emissions projected in the 2DS scenario.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Global passenger LDV sales (million)
Electric vehicles need to come of age
200
FCEV
Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles
Electricity
150
Plug-in hybrid diesel
Plug-in hybrid gasoline
Diesel hybrid
100
Gasoline hybrid
CNG/LPG
50
Diesel
0
2000
Gasoline
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
More than 90% of new light duty vehicles need to be
propelled by an electric motor in 2050
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GtCO2
Industry must become more efficient
12
6DS
10
Other industries
8
6
Chemicals and
petrochemicals
Aluminium
4
Pulp and paper
2
Iron and steel
0
2010
Cement
2020
2030
2040
2050
Significant potential for enhanced energy efficiency
can be achieved through best available technologies.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Investment in clean energy pays off
Additional investment
Additional
investment
Power
Industry
Transport
Fuel savings
Residential
Total savings
Commercial
Undiscounted
Fuel savings
Biomass
Coal
10%
Oil
- 120
- 80
- 40
0
40
USD
trillion
USD
trillion
Gas
Every additional dollar invested in clean energy
can generate three dollars in return.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Recommendations to Governments
1. Create an investment climate of confidence in
clean energy
2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy
efficiency – “the hidden fuel” of the future
3. Accelerate innovation and public research,
development and demonstration (RD&D)
© OECD/IEA 2012
For much more, please visit
www.iea.org/etp
© OECD/IEA 2012