A clean energy future, is it still
possible?
Washington DC, July 2012
Richard H. Jones, Deputy Executive Director
Dr. Markus Wråke, ETP Project Leader,
© OECD/IEA 2012
ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures
2DS
a vision of a sustainable
energy system of reduced
Greenhouse Gas (GHG)
and CO2 emissions
The 2°C Scenario
4DS
reflecting pledges by
countries to cut
emissions and boost
energy efficiency
The 4°C Scenario
6DS
where the world is now
heading with potentially
devastating results
The 6°C Scenario
© OECD/IEA 2012
Sustainable future still in reach
Is a clean energy
transition urgent?
Are we on track to
reach a clean
energy future?
Can we get on
track?
YES ✓
NO ✗
YES ✓
© OECD/IEA 2012
Clean energy: slow lane to fast track
Cleaner coal power
Nuclear power
Renewable power
CCS in power
CCS in industry
Industry
Buildings
Progress is too slow in
almost all technology areas
Significant action is required
to get back on track
Fuel economy
Electric vehicles
Biofuels for transport
© OECD/IEA 2012
Renewables provide good news
Renewable power generation
42%
75%
27%
Average annual
growth in Solar PV
Cost reductions in
Solar PV in just
three years in
some countries
Average annual
growth in wind
Energy RD&D has slipped in priority
12%
25
6%
10
4%
5
4
3
2
2%
1
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
Energy efficiency
Fossil fuels
Renewable energy
Nuclear
Hydrogen and fuel cells
Other power and storage technologies
Other cross cutting technologies/research
Share of energy RD&D in total R&D
South Africa
1986
Russia
1982
Mexico
1978
India
1974
China
0
0%
0
Brazil
USD billion
15
2008 non-IEA country
spending
USD billion
8%
Share of energy RD&D in total R&D
10%
20
© OECD/IEA 2012
A smart, sustainable energy system
Co-generation
Renewable energy resources
Centralised fuel production,
power and storage
Distributed
energy resources
Smart energy
system control
H2 vehicle
Surplus heat
EV
A sustainable energy system is a smarter,
more unified and integrated energy system
© OECD/IEA 2012
Recommendations to Governments
1. Create an investment climate of confidence
in clean energy
2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy
efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future
3. Accelerate innovation and public research,
development and demonstration (RD&D)
© OECD/IEA 2012
CO2 reductions in the US
7
6DS emissions
6
Agriculture, other 1%
5
GtCO 2
Other transformation 6%
4
Power 32%
3
Industry 11%
2
Transport 31%
1
0
2009
Buildings 20%
2020
2030
2040
2050
The power and transport sectors are key to achieving the 2DS.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Low-carbon electricity: a clean core
Global electricity generation in the 2DS
45 000
Other
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Nuclear
Biomass and waste
Oil
Gas with CCS
Gas
Coal with CCS
Coal
40 000
TWh
35 000
30 000
25 000
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
0
2009
2020
2030
2040
2050
Renewables will generate more than half the world’s
electricity in 2050 in the 2DS
© OECD/IEA 2012
Rocky road ahead for US renewables
GW
10
US wind capacity growth
Forecast based
on expiration of
PTC at end-2012
8
6
Expiration of federal PTC
4
2
0
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Policy uncertainty, competition from natural gas
and cost of capital slow renewables growth
© OECD/IEA 2012
Natural gas is lowering emissions…
Gas and coal fired power generation in the US, actual and IEA Medium Term Outlook
© OECD/IEA 2012
…but is not a panacea
Around 2030, natural gas becomes ‘high carbon’. CCS must
play a role if gas use should continue to grow.
© OECD/IEA 2012
The CCS infant must grow quickly
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Note: Capture rates in MtCO2 /year
© OECD/IEA 2012
Electric vehicles need to come of age
Passenger LDV sales (million)
200
FCEV
Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles
Electricity
150
Plug-in hybrid diesel
Plug-in hybrid gasoline
Diesel hybrid
100
Gasoline hybrid
CNG/LPG
50
Diesel
0
2000
Gasoline
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
More than 90% of new light duty vehicles need to be
propelled by an electric motor in 2050
© OECD/IEA 2012
Translating targets into action
8
million sales/year
7
Manufacturers
production/sales
6
5
Projection
(Estimated from
each country's
target)
Projection
(Estimated from
each country's
target)
4
3
2
1
0
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2018
2020
2020
Government targets need to be backed by policy action
© OECD/IEA 2012
Fuel economy makes a difference
PLDV tested fuel economy - WORLD
(new car average)
PLDV fuel consumption - WORLD
[Lge/100km]
10
8
6DS
6
Better FE
4
2
2010
2DS
2020
2030
2040
2050
[billion Lge/year]
2500
6DS
equivalent to
11mbbl/day
reduction
2000
Better FE
1500
1000
2DS(I/A/S)
500
0
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Fuel economy improvements in conventional and hybrid
vehicles alone can save 11 mbbl/day.
© OECD/IEA 2012
…but modal shift is also needed
Billion passenger km
Passenger mode share in the US
Fuel economy alone is not enough to meet 2DS targets
© OECD/IEA 2012
Building sector challenges differ
Billion households
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
2010
OECD
2020
2030
2040
2050
Non OECD
75% of current buildings in OECD will still be standing in 2050
Heating & Cooling: the forgotten giant
Renewable heat
Integration with electricity
District heating and
cooling network
Co-generation
Surplus heat
Heating and cooling account for 46% of global energy use.
Their huge potential for cutting CO2 emissions is often neglected.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Electrification is a double-edged sword
Heat pumps can deliver great savings - under the right
conditions and with correct operation.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Clean energy investment pays off
USD trillion
Every additional dollar invested in clean energy
can generate 3 dollars in return.
© OECD/IEA 2012
For much more, please visit
www.iea.org/etp
© OECD/IEA 2012
Visualising ETP Data – reductions
© OECD/IEA 2012
Visualising ETP Data – energy flows
© OECD/IEA 2012
Visualising ETP Data – fuel flows
© OECD/IEA 2012