Pilot Applications of the Nile Basin Decision Support System
Client: NBI - Nile Basin Initiative
Trans-Boundary Water
Management in Africa
Africa’s 63 trans-boundary river
basins account for:
• 1/3 of the World’s major
international river basins
• 93% of the total African water
resource
• 77% of the Continent’s
population
The Nile Basin - Facts
•
Longest River in World: 6700 km
•
Source : Burundi (Kagera River)
•
Basin Area: 3.2 million km2 (10% of Africa)
•
Basin shared by 11 countries:
Burundi, DRC, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia,
Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Sudan,
Tanzania, Uganda
•
Population: 190 million in basin (18% Africa)
•
Avg. flow rate at mouth : 84 billion m3/a
3
Hydrology of the Nile
Tributary
Total runoff (billion m3/a)
White Nile
26 (30%)
Blue Nile
48 (60%)
Atbara
10 (10%)
Total @ Aswan
84
Nile Basin Initiative (NBI)
•
Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) - Formally launched in Feb 1999 by the water
ministers of riparian countries that share the river - with Eritrea as an
observer
• Partnership among the Nile Riparian states that “seeks to develop the
river in a cooperative manner, share substantial socioeconomic
benefits, and promote regional peace and security”
• Initiated seven Shared Vision Programmes
• Investment projects under ENSAP and NELSAP
NB-DSS: Key focus areas
Result of comprehensive DSS needs assessment by the NBI :
NBDSS Developed by DHI in Phase 1
Information Management System (IMS)
 supports storage, retrieval and processing of various types of data
Dynamic Water balance Model
 support analysis of the water resources system, reservoir operation, water
quality modelling
Scenario management module
 supports creating, editing, running and analyzing water resources
development and management scenarios
Optimisation module
Hydrological models
 supports estimation of land use/cover changes on water resources
 estimation of climate change impacts on river flow
Hydrodynamic model
Economic analysis tools
Multi-criteria analysis tools
 support for identification of win-win development alternatives
NB-DSS: Software components
Aurecon Project Objectives for Phase 2
•
Overall
• “to ensure that the NB-DSS becomes a reliable and sustainable software
system”
•
Specific
•
to produce quality assured data sets that are relevant for NB-DSS
applications
•
to apply the NB-DSS for pilot project cases that are relevant for transboundary water resources management in the Nile basin with real
scenarios
•
to train stakeholders from the riparian countries in the application of the
NB-DSS
Pilot Cases
1. NELSAP Multi-Sectoral Investment Program – Focus
on Kagera Basin
2. Impacts of water resource developments on the Sudd
3. Eastern Nile Joint Multipurpose Programme
4. NELSAP Multi-Sectoral Investment Program - Focus
on Equatorial Nile Basin
5. Integrated Water Resources Development of the
Baro-Akobo Basin
6. Impact of Atbara-Tekeze River Upstream
Developments on the Main Nile Downstream
7. Integrated basin wide application of the NB-DSS
6
3
5
2
4
1
Scenarios
•
•
•
•
•
•
Cumulative developments / Development alternatives
(3 to 5 per sub-basin)
Climate change (Blue Nile)
Operating rules
•
maximise HP
•
sediment control
•
environmental flows
•
optimise
Full basin development
Soil Loss / Sedimentation
Flood Damage - Lower Blue Nile
Scenario Evaluation: NB-DSS
QA Data
NB-DSS - Models
INDICATORS
Environmental
Social
Economic
SCEN 1
SCEN 2
SCEN 3
QUANTIFY
Response functions - DSS time series outputs
Interrogation of Spatial Data – ArcGIS
Economic Tools (CBA)
External Data
NB-DSS :
SCENARIO MANAGER
SPREADSHEET
MANAGER
GIS MANAGER
NB-DSS :
SCENARIO MANAGER
SCRIPT MANAGER
TIMESERIES MANAGER
SPREADSHEET
MANAGER
DEFINE CRITERIA
NORMALISATION / WEIGHTING / LIMITS
MCA
NB-DSS :
MCA
CBA
Scenario Manager
Scope of Work
Thank you!