Session Report Cover Sheet
SESSION CODE: F&EN - 06
Name of Convener(s): Mahmoud Elzain Hamid
DATE:
Session Title: Population concentration and
18 - March, 2003
water scarcity in the Nile Basin: the
imperatives of sustainability
Accommodation: Kyoto International Hall
Contact information
Contact No.:
in Japan
Contact E-mail: hamid@iss.nl
Session Report
SESSION CODE: F&EN - 06
Reporter/Rapporteur: Sheetal N. Shah
Contact E-mail : sheetal_n_shah@hotmail.com
1. Key Issues
Key issues are droughts, food insecurity, urbanization, water scarcity and necessity for international
collaboration. A causal chain: droughts cause food insecurity, induce population concentration both on
regional and urban scales along the bank of the river, therefore, cause water scarcity, whose solutions are
not possible without international co-operation.
2. Actions
Actions are driven by what we see on the ground and what the session thoroughly presented. Our
research findings show that in arid and environmentally degraded parts of the NB large groups of
population are moving from the non-riverain zones (NRZ) into the riverain zone (RZ)/inside the Nile Basin.
In the arid northern Sudan the population in the irrigable areas in RZ of central Sudan increased from 38%
of northern Sudan's total population in 1983 to 44% in 2000, and in Ethiopia population inside the NB
increased from 38% in 1984 to 44% in 1994. If these increases maintain the shared rivers' basins
between these two countries will host 97 million - more than Egypt's population in 2025. Urbanization in
the above parts of Sudan and Ethiopia is faster than in anywhere else in the two countries. Parts of the
NRZ, which are once highly populated, are witnessing relative depopulation.
The main immediate causes behind population concentration are the severe environmental problems: in
the northern part of the NB the desert enhanced by recurrent droughts is advancing 10 kilometers
annually. Soil erosion in Ethiopia is 137 times the world's average. Subsistence economies either
collapsed or on the verge of total collapse and millions of people are facing famines in Eritrea, Ethiopia
and the Sudan, in particular.
Given the incredible persisting causes of population concentration, namely unequal development and its
consequences of droughts and civil wars, population concentration will be the major problems facing the
Nile Basin countries. Action is needed for (1) meeting the increasing demand of this concentrating
population from the Nile River water, and/or (2) alternatively, equitably developing the population-sending
regions in order to maintain balanced population distribution and optimize the use of the non-river waters
(rains and underground water in NRZ).
3. Commitments
The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), being greatly different from previous initiatives, namely bringing all
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riparians together, represents serious commitment and a reasonable ground from which future actions
could be launched. The contribution of this session is to sensitize the NBI in relation to the problem of
population concentration. Action in this respect should be taken in order to achieve a sustainable
balanced population. The expected impact of such an action is the lifting of the burden caused by
population concentration from the river and benefiting from rains falling away from it. The INB,
emphasizing sustainability and bottom-up approaches, provides for potential good practice and good
lessons, so far, learned from it are manifest in the effective communication and exchange of information
among policy makers in the NB countries. Incorporating the population concentration issues in these
communication and exchanges will raise awareness about them, therefore, pave the ground for
implementing the recommendations below.
4. Recommendations
Recommended action plans:
Identifying and preparing cooperative projects at the lowest levels in the NB countries; fund raising from
bilateral and multilateral donors for the NBI activities.
Recommended short-term targets. First, rehabilitation of population-sending, namely NRZ regions with
the aim of environmental protection and regaining the waters therein. Secondly, rural development and
maintenance of rural food security for maintaining balanced population distribution. Thirdly, in connection
to previous, involving civil society organizations in the processes of definition-making, decision-making
and implementation of policies concerning resettlement, rehabilitation, rural development and food
security. This implies the recognition of effective participation of local stakeholders through and
appreciating their indigenous knowledge, as well as decentralizing and democratizing local institutions
involved in the above processes.
Finally, overcoming the causes of civil strife and achieving political stability in civil war zones in order to
allow for resumption of projects for increasing water supply.
Recommended long-term goals. First, virtual water exchanges between the Nile Basin countries with the
aim of achieving the best comparative advantages and rehabilitating the regions affected, for instance, by
soil erosion. Afforestation can help rehabilitate and protect the ecosystem of a region and provide for
timber and fruits to be exported as virtual water to other riparians. Secondly, alternative water resources
and technological change that necessary cater for the efficient use of w. Thirdly, solid knowledge and
reliable information and confidence building. This implies going beyond national institutions towards
building the scientific community for the Nile Basin. Finally, basin-wide human resource development and
effective maintenance of what is recommended in the short-term targets above.
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