Forecasting Development Project
The MoJ CJ Modelling Landscape
OR CJ Special Interest Group
Forecasting and Model Development Unit (FMDU)
November 2011
The Forecasting and Modelling Development Unit has created a blueprint for Criminal
Justice Modelling. The Criminal Justice Workload Projections workstream aims to work
towards this blueprint.
DRIVER-BASED CASELOAD FORECASTING FRAMEWORKS
CRIMINAL
FAMILY
ADMINISTRATIVE
CIVIL
“Adaptor plugs” turn high level trends into
detailed short-term agency caseload forecasts.
Detailed Workload Models for all MoJ operations will
project Output/Performance and Resource on the basis
of common caseload forecasts/ assumptions.
COURTS &
TRIBUNALS
LEGAL
AID
O
R
O/P
OFFENDER
MANAGEMENT
R
MoJ Staffing
Model
O/P
MoJ Estates
Model
GROUPS OF
DETAILED
WORKLOAD
MODELS
OTHER
OPERATIONAL
AGENCIES
R
O/P
R
Judicial
Workforce
Model
LONG TERM
PLANNING
MODELS
FORWARD PLANNING MODEL: MEDIUM TERM FINANCIAL PLANS
Projected resource implications will feed medium-term financial plans.
Financial plans of non-operational areas and shared services will also feed in.
Other Financial Plans:
• HQ functions
• Non-operational arms-length bodies
• Shared services
The Forecasting and Modelling Development Unit has created a blueprint for Criminal
Justice Modelling. The Criminal Justice Workload Projections workstream aims to work
towards this blueprint.
CRIMINAL
Reoffending
Models
Charged
Defendants
Investigation
R
Charge
Charge
O/P
Court
Court
ISO
N
RO
LE
PR
AT OB
IO
N
O/P
R
Crime
Crime
CROWN
PA
MAGS
PR
Crown
HMCTS
Workload
CRIMINAL
LEGAL AID
O
Courts and
NOMS
Sentencing
& YJB
Mags Estates Model
Workload
Part of a later
workstream
R
NOMS
OF
OM
NOMS
OF
Estates Model
Criminal
CriminalJustice
JusticeFramework
Framework
FPM
FPM
The Criminal Justice Workload Projections workstream will provide a consistent and
coherent platform for policy development and planning, driven by new projections of
demand
For the first time…
Charged
Defendants
•Offender Management models will be linked
Crown
Workload
Courts and
Sentencing
•Workload projections for OM will reflect the impact of the courts
Mags
Workload
Part of a later
workstream
•Internal projections will be consistent with published projections
NOMS
OF
Estates Model
FPM
Official baseline projections mean
operational and financial planners can
be confident they are working from the
same starting assumptions
The suite of models can be used to….
•estimate policy impacts on baseline demand & assess consequences for the courts and OM
•evaluate outcomes by tracking volumes against the pre-implementation baseline
Charged defendants are modelled because they represent the entry point to the MoJ
part of the CJS
No MoJ policy impacts in
2011 demand baseline.
Underlying
Volume
Policy with a timetable for implementation
Home Office and CPS capacity assumptions
dealt with through “no change” in disposal
mix. The landscape could be used to
evaluate the impact of different scenarios at
this stage
External Capacity (Police, CPS)
Charged/Summonsed
Defendants
TIC, PND, FPN, Restorative Justice, Cautions
Charged/summonsed
Total Defendants Proceeded Against
Non-recordable Crime
Charges
Recorded Crime
Date
Actuals
Projection - Basic
Projection - Scenario
Jan-18
Jan-17
Jan-16
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-05
Jan-04
Jan-03
Jan-02
Jan-01
BCS
Jan-06
Trend and seasonality
(favoured over regression
because of the dominance of
policy impacts and lack of
long-run time series data in
last 10 years)
The courts and sentencing adaptor plug converts high level projections into the detailed
inputs needed for models of Offender Management
Crown Court
Workload Model
Courts and
Sentencing
Module
Mags Court
Workload Model
Part of a later workstream
The adaptor…
•Provides breakdowns of the offender population by age and gender
•Takes into account the impact of the courts on the flow of offenders through the CJS
•Provides a transparent mechanism to account for differences in court and offender management data sets
•Provides sentencing outcomes
•Can show impact of “current level” and “current trend” in demographic/ sentencing splits on projections
The prisons model is a stock-flow model which outputs prison population and flows into
and out of prison. Flows are important because they carry cost implications for NOMS
and because they are needed for forecasting Probation and Parole
Prison Population
Receptions
Prison
Projections
Discharges
Average Time Served
Receptions
Probation
Projections
Probation Population
Discharges
= Prison Discharges for PRL
Average Time Served
Parole
Projections
Post-Tariff Population
Pre-Tariff Population
Receptions
Transfer
Tariff
Parole Board
Hearings
Going forward, the new suite of models will be transferred into BAU. The priority of work
within the BAU regime is to be decided but will involve some of all of…
•Regular update of source data and modelling assumptions to provide up to date projections
•Monitoring of existing projections
•Use of models for scenario analysis work
•Improvement of existing models and development to fit the evolving CJ landscape
•Assessment of uncertainty attached to projections and key underlying sensitivities
ANY QUESTIONS?