Energy and commodity price benchmarking and market insights
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Singapore, Beijing, Tokyo, Sydney, Dubai, Moscow, Astana, Kiev, Porto and Johannesburg
illuminating the markets
Argus Crude Pricing Training Course – Outline
Vanessa Viola & Sergio Wakim, Brazil Country Manager / Brazil Sales Manager
About Argus
• Leading international and independent price reporting organisation
• Founded in 1970 — over 40 years experience
• Privately held by employees and the founder’s family
• Today over 140 publications and services
• Over 500 employees and 40 freelancers (news journalists)
• Customers in 110 countries
• Investors in People
• One of top 50 fastest growing UK registered companies (Sunday
Times)
• 19 offices around the globe…
London
Houston
Washington
New York
Portland
Calgary
Santiago
Bogota
Rio de Janeiro
Singapore
Beijing
Tokyo
Sydney
Dubai
Moscow
Astana
Kiev
Porto
Johannesburg
illuminating the markets
Copyright © 2012 Argus Media Ltd. All
rights reserved.
Argus services
Publications, Pricing and Data Services
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Market report portfolio, various price benchmarks
Informed comment, analysis and news
Events
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Conferences provide deep insights into market development
and offer networking opportunities
Consulting Services
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Bespoke research and analysis service
Argus Crude Pricing Training Course - Module 1
Market Context. Current and outlook (2013-2020)
Covering 2010-2013
•Reality check on supply: review of crude production around the world, by quality, highlighting medium, heavy
and extra heavy barrels. By region:
– Middle East
– North America (Canada, USA, México)
– South America
– Africa (West, North and rest)
– Asia
– Russia
•Global product demand and drivers behind it
•Reality check on crude demand:
– Refining capacity of key consuming centers in the world, with specific focus on visbreaking, coking
and asphalt capacity. Same regions-countries as described above
•Crude flows, by quality, by destination. In between key exporting and importing centers from the prior list. By
quality would include API and Sulfur
Argus Crude Pricing Training Course - Module 1
Market Context. Current and outlook (2013-2020)
Covering 2014-2020
•Outlook for crude supply: review of crude production around the world, by quality, highlighting medium, heavy
and extra heavy barrels. By region:
– Middle East
– North America (Canada, USA, México)
– South America
– Africa (West, North and rest)
– Asia
– Russia
• Outlook for Global product demand, and drivers
•Outlook for crude demand:
– Refining capacity of key consuming centers in the world, with specific focus on visbreaking, coking
and asphalt capacity. Same regions-countries as described above
•Outlook for crude flows, by quality, by destination. In between key exporting and importing centers from the
prior list. By quality would include API and Sulfur. Includes a review of crude quality for main grades by country,
by region, with consideration for crude synergies and antagonisms for each key market, depending upon the
typical crude slate (potential blending of certain streams into a particular slate)
Argus Crude Pricing Training Course - Module 1
Market Context. Current and outlook (2013-2020)
Putting it all together:
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Impact of growing Canadian production, US shale developments, potential outcome of Mexico’s
upstream and North American infrastructure in US crude slates and Latin American trade: analysis by
quality, medium and heavy grades
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Commercial implications of the forecasts presented: synergies and opportunities for Latin American
producers
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Review of shipping patterns as of today, and expected changes given the supply and demand outlook:
vessel sizes and main trade flows among key exporting and importing countries (with consideration of
VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax, Panamax)
Argus Crude Pricing Training Course - Module 1
Market Context. Current and outlook (2013-2020)
Commercial Considerations for Pricing Crudes:
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Review of medium and heavy crude pricing mechanisms around the world: USGC, USWC, NW Europe,
Mediterranean, North Asia and South Asia.
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Review of General Purpose crude pricing mechanisms around the world (includes light and medium
grades). For same regions as described in prior bullet.
Argus Crude Pricing Training Course - Module 1
Market Context. Current and outlook (2013-2020)
Best Practices for pricing crude: specific focus on Medium and Heavy grades
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Review of how main crude producers (Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia, Canada) sell their crude,
highlighting the following elements:
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Spot vs contract
Where they focus their exports, how do they diversify exports
What they typically use as benchmark (price indices, formulas, pricing methodologies)
Other factors in their pricing strategy, for instance: timing, sales to third parties or not, storage and
other infrastructure advantages
Argus Crude Pricing Training Course - Module 2
Refining Economics Methodologies for pricing Medium and Heavy crudes
Best Practices for pricing crude: specific focus on Medium and Heavy grades
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Description of price-discovery methodologies (for companies with Linear Programming-based analysis):
– Refining margin equilibrium
– Price discovery via refining economics: substitution and incremental methodologies
Description of price-discovery methodologies (for companies with Refining Economic- excel based analysis):
– Building crude slates to evaluate
– Type of comparisons recommended for price discovery
Description of tools necessary to implement these refining economics methodologies: identifying main
competitors by market for crudes under consideration (medium or heavy)
Suggested methodologies and analysis practices to maximize revenues
– Ideal combination of Refining Economics tools and analysis approach for pricing medium and heavy
grades
– How to maximize commercial opportunities considering all export portfolio (which might include
medium grades from the sub-salt)
The use of formulas and indexes while pricing medium or heavy crudes – ASCI, Maya, Venezuelan formulas,
etc.
Argus Crude Pricing Training Course - Module 2
Screening of specific refineries that can become clients for Latin American crude
producers
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Assessment of export potential for key Latin American producers that could seek business in USGC, USWC,
Europe and Asia:
– Colombian crude
– Venezuelan crude
– Brazilian crude
– Others (Peru, Ecuador, Canada, Mexico)
Screening of target refineries that could sign long-term contracts in the USGC,
USWC, with consideration of commercial, logistic and configuration variables
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Europe: NWE and Med
Asia: North and South
Course format
– The training course will be provided using power point
presentations.
– Material will be made available to attendees in printed form and an
electronic format (PDF) with watermark licensed to each specific
atendee.
– All historical and forecasted data included for purposes of the
training course will be available in the printed and electronic
material only.
– Additional data, granularity or analysis requests not included in the
original course will be addressed on an individual company basis in
the form of future consulting.
Facilities and Agenda
• The course will be hosted at Arena Hotel (Avenida Atlântica 2064,
Copacabana, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil).
• Training Agenda : 18th and 19th November 2013 from 9am to 5pm
– morning coffee break
– buffet lunch and
– afternoon coffee break
Speakers
Steve Weber - Vice President - Petrochemical Consulting
Steve has more than 30 years’ experience in the petrochemical and refining industries. Steve joined Argus DeWitt from Solomon
Associates, where he served as Project Manager, Refining and Chemical Business. Prior to joining Solomon, Mr. Weber served in
a variety of petrochemical and refining commercial and manufacturing roles for Total Petrochemicals USA, Inc. and its
predecessors Atofina and Fina.
Mr. Weber holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Chemical Engineering and an MBA from the University of Texas at Austin. At
Argus DeWitt, Mr. Weber leads single client and multi-client studies for Argus DeWitt clients.
Speakers
Jaime Brito – Vice President of Business Development for Latin America
More than 16 years of experience on crude and oil product markets, as well as publications and consulting, Jaime joined Argus
from PFC Energy where he served as Director of Downstream and Petrochemicals Group. Prior to that, Jaime also served as
project management consulting with focus on refining economics, market fundamentals and long-term forecasting, including
prices. He also advised on commercial strategies and due diligence, developed and managed analytical models for forecasting
short and long term market fundamentals, crude and product flows, refinery rationalization and commercial strategies and also
led a group of analysts to complete supply and demand forecasts of crude, oil products, refining operations, crude slates,
market fundamentals.
Jaime also delivered consulting work related to short-term market fundamentals, global economy, midstream and political
developments directly related to crude and oil product markets
Proposal
Project : Argus Crude Oil Training Course
Registration Fee ( NET ARGUS )
$
2,580.00
per atendee
General Conditions
– In order to make the course economically feasible, the minimun audience
must be 30 atendees;
– The acceptance must be sent by August 30th (when the hotel reservation
expires);
– Payment is due 30 days before the event;
– Argus Media will generate individual invoices for each registered company;
Sergio Wakim – Sales Manager Brazil
Email: sergio.wakim@argusmedia.com
Tel:+55 21 35141450
Cel:+55 11 98381 9621 / +55 21 8554 9830
website:www.argusmedia.com.br