Energy and commodity price benchmarking and market insights London, Houston, Washington, New York, Portland, Calgary, Santiago, Bogota, Rio de Janeiro, Singapore, Beijing, Tokyo, Sydney, Dubai, Moscow, Astana, Kiev, Porto and Johannesburg illuminating the markets Argus Crude Pricing Training Course – Outline Euan Craik, CEO Américas, Argus Jaime Brito, Vice President Business Development Latin America Neil Vasquez, Commercial Manager, Latin America About Argus • Leading international and independent price reporting organisation • Founded in 1970 — over 40 years experience • Privately held by employees and the founder’s family • Today over 140 publications and services • Over 550 employees and 40 freelancers (news journalists) • Customers in 110 countries • Investors in People • One of top 50 fastest growing UK registered companies (Sunday Times) • 20 offices around the globe… Argus services Publications, Pricing and Data Services • o o Market report portfolio, various price benchmarks Informed comment, analysis and news Events • o Conferences provide deep insights into market development and offer networking opportunities Consulting Services • o Bespoke research and analysis service Argus Crude Pricing Training Course - Module 1 Market Context. Current and outlook (2013-2020) •Reality check on supply: review of crude production around the world, by quality, highlighting medium, heavy and extra heavy barrels. By region: – Middle East – North America (Canada, USA, México) – South America – Africa (West, North and rest) – Asia – Russia •Global product demand and drivers behind it •Reality check on crude demand: – Refining capacity of key consuming centers in the world, with specific focus on visbreaking, coking and asphalt capacity. Same regions-countries as described above •Crude flows, by quality, by destination. In between key exporting and importing centers from the prior list. By quality would include API and Sulfur Argus Crude Pricing Training Course - Module 1 Market Context. Current and outlook (2013-2020) Commercial Considerations for Pricing Crudes: – Review of medium and heavy crude pricing mechanisms around the world: USGC, USWC, NW Europe, Mediterranean, North Asia and South Asia. – Review of General Purpose crude pricing mechanisms around the world (includes light and medium grades). For same regions as described in prior bullet. Argus Crude Pricing Training Course - Module 1 Market Context. Current and outlook (2013-2020) Best Practices for pricing crude: specific focus on Medium and Heavy grades • Review of how main crude producers (Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia, Canada) sell their crude, highlighting the following elements: – – – – Spot vs contract Where they focus their exports, how do they diversify exports What they typically use as benchmark (price indices, formulas, pricing methodologies) Other factors in their pricing strategy, for instance: timing, sales to third parties or not, storage and other infrastructure advantages Argus Crude Pricing Training Course - Module 2 Refining Economics Methodologies for pricing Medium and Heavy crudes Best Practices for pricing crude: specific focus on Medium and Heavy grades • • • • • Description of price-discovery methodologies (for companies with Linear Programming-based analysis): – Refining margin equilibrium – Price discovery via refining economics: substitution and incremental methodologies Description of price-discovery methodologies (for companies with Refining Economic- excel based analysis): – Building crude slates to evaluate – Type of comparisons recommended for price discovery Description of tools necessary to implement these refining economics methodologies: identifying main competitors by market for crudes under consideration (medium or heavy) Suggested methodologies and analysis practices to maximize revenues – Ideal combination of Refining Economics tools and analysis approach for pricing medium and heavy grades – How to maximize commercial opportunities considering all export portfolio (which might include medium grades from the sub-salt) The use of formulas and indexes while pricing medium or heavy crudes – ASCI, Maya, Venezuelan formulas, etc. Argus Crude Pricing Training Course - Module 2 Screening of specific refineries that can become clients for Latin American crude producers • Assessment of export potential for key Latin American producers that could seek business in USGC, USWC, Europe and Asia: – Colombian crude – Venezuelan crude – Brazilian crude – Others (Peru, Ecuador, Canada, Mexico) Screening of target refineries that could sign long-term contracts in the USGC, USWC, with consideration of commercial, logistic and configuration variables – – Europe: NWE and Med Asia: North and South Facilities and Agenda • The course will be hosted at JW Marriot Hotel, Bogota, Colombia (Calle 73 #8-60 Bogotá). • Training Agenda : April 23th, 2014; from 9am to 5pm – – – – Morning coffee break Lunch Afternoon coffee break Closing cocktail Speakers Euan Craik, CEO Americas, Argus Media Inc. Euan Craik is chief executive of Argus Media Inc. in Houston and serves on the Board of Directors of Argus Media Ltd. Since 2006, Euan has led the Argus management team in the Americas, expanding the reach of offices and breadth of services. He joined Argus in 1996, initially as a specialist on the Russian oil and gas industries. From 2000, Euan served as Argus’ Executive Editor, based in London, where he developed Argus’ LNG coverage and other areas of the global gas and power portfolio. In the early nineties, Euan worked in business journalism in Moscow, initially at the first post-Soviet business newspaper, Kommersant, then at the English-language Moscow Times. He was later awarded a fellowship at the Centre for Economic Performance of the London School of Economics. Jaime Brito – Vice President of Business Development for Latin America More than 16 years of experience on crude and oil product markets, as well as publications and consulting, Jaime joined Argus from PFC Energy where he served as Director of Downstream and Petrochemicals Group. Prior to that, Jaime also served as project management consulting with focus on refining economics, market fundamentals and long-term forecasting, including prices. He also advised on commercial strategies and due diligence, developed and managed analytical models for forecasting short and long term market fundamentals, crude and product flows, refinery rationalization and commercial strategies and also led a group of analysts to complete supply and demand forecasts of crude, oil products, refining operations, crude slates, market fundamentals. Jaime also delivered consulting work related to short-term market fundamentals, global economy, midstream and political developments directly related to crude and oil product markets Cost Argus Crude Pricing Course Colombia 2014 Registration Fee per atendee $ 1,150.00 (USD) Note: Such amount listed above do not include VAT or other applicable taxes or retentions Neil Vasquez– Sales Manager Latin America Email: Neil.vasquez@argusmedia.com Tel: +1 713 400 7831 Cel: +1 832 334 6140 website: espanol.argusmedia.com/ London Houston Washington New York Portland Calgary Santiago Bogota Rio de Janeiro Singapore Beijing Tokyo Sydney Dubai Moscow Astana Kiev Porto Johannesburg illuminating the markets Copyright © 2012 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.