Michael McMullen

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2013 NASUCA Meeting
Integration of Intermittent
Renewable Resources
Panel
Michael McMullen
MISO
June 10, 2013
0
MISO is one of the largest and most technologically
advanced grid operators in the world
Current
MISO
MISO w/
Entergy
High Voltage
Transmission - miles
49,670
65,170
Installed Generation MW
132,296
162,296
Installed Generation # of Units
1,259
1,431
Peak System
Demand - MW
98,576
133,576
1
MISO’s role is focused on a few key value-added areas
What We Do
Implications
Provide independent
transmission system access
• Equal and non-discriminatory access
Deliver improved reliability
coordination through efficient
market operations
• Improved regional coordination
Coordinate regional planning
• Compliance with FERC requirements
• Enhanced system reliability
• Lowest cost unit commitment, dispatch and congestion
management
• Integrated system planning
• Broader incorporation of renewables
• Market price / value discovery
Provide price information
transparency
• Encourage prudent infrastructure investment
• Provide wholesale alignment for retail policy
implementation
2
MISO was formed to address federal requirements, but
growth has been based on value creation
2013
•
Entergy
Region
3
MISO’s capacity is comprised primarily of coal and natural
gas units…
Nuclear (6%)
Biomass (3%)
Other (2%)
Renewables
(14%)
Hydro (30%)
Gas / Oil (32%)
MISO Nameplate Capacity
132,296 MW
MISO Nameplate Capacity –
Renewables
18,734 MW
4
…but wind resources are growing rapidly
Registered nameplate wind capacity in the MISO region
(in MWs)
MISO RPS Mandates by 2021 = ~20,770 MW
ACTUALS FORECAST
5
Wind’s rapid growth is fueled by MISO’s rich wind
resource base...
Annual Average Wind Speed at 80 m
6
Source: Wind resource estimates developed by AWS Truepower
…and renewable portfolio standards and goals adopted in
MISO states
MN
ND
10% by 2015
MT
15% by 2025
SD
10% by 2015
Xcel: 30% by 2030
25% by 2025
WI
10% by 2015
MI
10% by
2015
IA
105 MW
IN
IL
25% by 10% by
2025
2025
MO
15% by 2021
KY
No RPS
State with RPS Mandate
State with RPS Goal
State with RPS Mandate or Goal
MISO Existing Wind = 12,270 MW
MISO RPS Mandates by 2021 = ~20,770 MW
7
Source: MISO, DSIRE – Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency
7
Inherent characteristics of wind have significant operational
impacts on MISO
Driver
• Variability of wind
• Poor correlation of
wind and load
• Transmission
congestion caused by
wind location
Market Issue
Tools
• Congestion
management
• Market dispatch of
intermittent units (DIRs)
• Over and under
commitment
• Enhanced wind
forecasting
• Ramp management
• Surplus generation
events
• Future ramp capability
enhancement
8
Wind is variable by month…
Monthly Energy Contribution from Wind
(in GWh)
3,874
3,463
3,267
3,073
3,053
2,923
3,036
2,909
3,138
2,339
2,058
1,481
Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12
Wind Energy as a %
of MISO Energy
9.5%
7.9%
5.8%
1,644
Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13
3.2%
4.0%
5.9%
9.3%
8.5%
7.4%
9.4%
8.1%
8.0%
9.8%
Source: MISO Real-Time Operations and Transmission Asset Management Departments
Source: MISO Monthly Operations Report for the Informational Forum, April 2013
9
…and wind is variable day-to-day and doesn’t reliably
correlate with load
Daily Wind Capacity Factor % for Peak Hours
1/1/2013 – 4/30/2013
80
60
40
20
0
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
Note: Weekends and holidays are considered off-peak and are excluded from the graph.
10
Source: MISO Monthly Operations Report for the Informational Forum, January 2013 - April 2013
Improved wind forecasting will allow for improved
operations, but wind forecasting is not likely to become an
exact science
MISO Forecasting Accuracy: 1/1/2012 – 5/13/2013
Day Ahead
4 hours Ahead
Hour Ahead
Standard Deviation
765 MW
612 MW
486 MW
Mean Absolute Error
587 MW
476 MW
390 MW
Mean Absolute
Percentage Error
5.3%
4.3%
3.5%
11
Challenges prior to MISO dispatching intermittent
resources (DIRs)
• Rapid increase in wind penetration
– Transmission expansion lagged wind expansion
– Deployment in areas with little transmission
– Increasing need for manual curtailments to manage congestion
• Challenges of manual curtailments
– Highly manual process; time consuming for reliability coordinator
– Tracking firm vs. non-firm transmission service
– Manual curtailments not accounted for in security constrained
economic dispatch resulting in loss of price transparency
– Manual curtailments less economic than automated security
constrained economic dispatch
– Adverse settlement impacts on wind participants
12
Dispatchable Intermittent Resources (DIRs) design
features
• Renewable generation is treated like any other generation
resource in the market
• DIRs can participate in the real-time energy market
• DIRs can automatically be dispatched up to a forecasted
limit based on an offer price and system conditions.
– Participants submit a short term wind forecast instead of a hourly
economic maximum like other generation resources
– This enables wind to submit offers and receive dispatch
instructions rather than be manually curtailed when transmission
constraints limit renewable energy generation to reach the broader
market region
Dispatchable Intermittent Resources enhance system wide operational
and market efficiency and improve market transparency
13
Dispatchable Intermittent Resources (DIRs) registration
• DIRs launched on June 1, 2011
• Registration required as of March, 2013 with limited
exceptions
11,857
10,680
10,601
12,444
12,270
12,238
10,791
9,758
9,523
1,208
Jun
2011
Jun-11
2,037
Sep
2011
Sep-11
3,290
Jan
2012
Jan-12
4,024
Mar
2012
Mar-12
Wind Nameplate Capacity (MW)
4,826
Jun
2012
Jun-12
6,084
6,283
Sep
2012
Sep-12
Dec
2012
Dec-12
Mar
2013
Mar-13
Wind Nameplate Capacity (MW) Registered as DIRs
14
MISO is able to capture ~95% of wind’s potential through
economic dispatch
DIR Dispatched Energy (Left Axis)
DIR Dispatch Below Economic Maximum (Left Axis)
% of DIR Dispatched Down (Right Axis)
15
Wind variability has the potential to create a ramping
challenge which may require improved tools and new
market products to manage
• The current wind variability and profile impact ramp requirements
as significantly as net scheduled interchange
– Wind capacity levels expected from the region’s Renewable Portfolio
Standards will dramatically increase the operational difficulties
– However, MISO’s large balancing area and geographic diversity help
minimize the issue at current wind penetration levels
• Current operational methods to manage this ramp include
– Load and wind forecasting
– Pre-commitment of units
– Use of fast-start units and spinning reserves to manage unexpected
variability
• Improved operational and market methods under development
– Improved load and wind forecasting
– 30-minute reserve products
– Ramping service product
16
MISO’s regional planning enables more economic
placement of wind resources in the region
Local design of wind
generation build-out
Combination design of
wind generation build-out
ILLUSTRATIVE
Local Design = Renewable energy requirements and
goals will be met with resources within the same
state as the load
Combination Design = Renewable energy requirements
and goals will be met with a combination of local resources
and resources outside of the state with high ranking
renewable energy zones
The economic benefit of optimizing wind into MISO’s footprint
is $244 to $285 million in annual benefits
17
Source: MISO’s 2012 Value Proposition Study which was based on the results of the Regional Generation Outlet Study II
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