ISU Tour MISO Dale Osborn July 18,2011 MISO Services • Oversee the flow of power over the high voltage wholesale transmission system in all or part of 13 states • Provide independent wholesale transmission system access • Manage power congestion • Reliability coordination • Regional transmission planning • Operate day-ahead and real-time energy markets • Independent market monitor • Set reserve margin requirements 1-14-2011 1 MISO Wind • MISO has about a 800,000 MW potential for wind generation development- Eastern Interconnection Load is 960,000 MW – Supply greater than demand by a factor of 40 – What can be done? • MISO has 9,400 MW of Wind Generation Connected – Almost all wind has a purchaser- Preferred Provider Agreement as part of a Renewable Portfolio Standard or goal – Prices in MISO too low for a merchant plant – Gas prices are too low to sell surplus energy except over existing transmission – Transmission to PJM( east) and others is limited 4 Like on highways, when the wires are too small there is congestion which raise prices 1-14-2011 5 Whose Wind Generation Is Chosen? • Wind Generation cost about the same-$1,800,000/MW • Wind energy depends on location – 40% Capacity factor-orange-$80/MWH no tax credits – 30% Capacity factor-yellow-$100/MWH no tax credits – The difference could be use to build transmission to deliver wind competitively for an RFP – 200 miles is roughly the competitive distance with 345 kV transmission- 500 MW to load line – 1200 miles is the maximum possible today with 800 kV HVDC with 19,000 MW required to load a three line system that would not affect the underlying system. – MISO can take about a 1500 MW contingency for resource loss, single HVDC lines limited to 1500 MW to be confirmed with a study 6 Wind Generation RFP Competitive Zone 30-40%Capacity Factor Change 345 kV Minneapolis 500 MW 345 kV Chicago 500 MW 800 kV HVDC NYC 19,000 MW Set circle center on wind location to determine the Marketing Zone 7 Factors Affecting Wind Energy Marketing • Wind energy is a social choice not an economical choice in most parts of the U.S.- RPS or goals determine the amount of wind being installed • The price of natural gas determines the competitive level – Present price $4/MBTU- Prices level across U.S. – Price two years ago $8-14/MBTU-Prices high in the east – Price difference between regions pay for transmission • Economic Development and Jobs keep wind supplies local – Present values of $856,000 per MW of wind generation for Economic Development cannot be offset by the better performance of with the transmission cost • Pancaked transmission costs exclude areas from competition- ND, SD, RTO borders except MISO-PJM 8 – New Transmission Creates Jobs • U of Minnesota Duluth Bureau of Business and Economic Research studied the economic impact of 700 miles of transmission Lines in MN, ND, SD, WI CAPX2020 from 2010 to 2015 at cost of $2B: – $3.4 Billion in sales generated from construction related activity – $1.6 Billion in construction related wages – $149 million in local, state and federal tax revenue – $1.93 returned to economy for each dollar spent on project – Nearly 8,000 jobs in peak construction year (2013) including construction and indirect jobs • Full study at www.capx2020.com 1-14-2011 9 For what levels of wind generation are there MISO plans? • The Renewable Portfolio Standard for the year 2025 is 23,000 MW • The Generation Interconnection Queue is 50,000 MW • The Regional Generation Outlet Study(RGOS) established – Renewable Energy Zones to locate 23,000 MW of wind gen • Midwest Governors Association • State Regulators • Stake Holders – A overall transmission plan to deliver 23,000 MW of wind energy – Economic information about the plan in the 2010 MTEP 10 All Energy Zones DRAFT #9 "Master" 1-14-2011 11 13 Transmission and Substation Costs per Mw-mile by Transmission Voltage And Type of Construction 4,000 3,600 3,200 Lowest cost options $/Mw-Mile 2,800 2,400 2,000 1,600 1,200 800 400 0 345 kV Steel Wooded Areas 600 2-345kkV on Steel 1200 500 kV 1300 765 kV 765 HSIL 2600 5400 800 kV GIL 1200 mile800kV HVDC 5300 6400 345 kV - 765 kv Delivery Capacity with a 5% voltage drop on a losseles line 3.5 3 PU SIL 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 0 50 100 150 200 Miles 250 300 350 Power Transfer Breakover by Voltage $16,000,000 $14,000,000 $12,000,000 345 kV AC+600 Mw 1-765kV AC 1-800 kV HVDC 345 kV AC+1000 Mw $8,000,000 $6,000,000 $4,000,000 $2,000,000 13,200 12,200 11,200 10,200 9,200 8,200 7,200 6,200 5,200 4,200 3,200 2,200 1,200 $0 200 Cost/Mile $10,000,000 Power Transfer MW 16 HVDC Transmission Format Delivery Costs $3,000,000 C o s M t W t 1 o 2 0 D 0 e l m i i v l e e r s Bipole $2,500,000 $2,000,000 200 kV Super Conducting-spare pole 800 kV HVDC Overhead $1,500,000 1000 kV HVDC Overhead Double Ckt Bipole $1,000,000 Two bipoles with Metalic Return Bipole with spare pole $500,000 a Bipole with Metallic Return $- 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 Scheduled Power Transfer MW 800 kV Electric Pipe 800 kV Gas Insulated Transmission ONHY NYPP SUNC VP PJME VACAR WPSC PJMS MIDW WEPLK PJMW CEC STHRN DETED FE LBWL SOLAE SPPW AEP SOLAW DP&L SASK CGE LG&E EMDE DQE DPC ARLM HEC IP&L PSI TVA SPCIUT WRI NIPS BREC MGE GRE SMMP HUC WPL SIGE WPPI NSP MPC ASEC INDN ALWST COED KCPL MIPU WPS KACY WEP MPW OTP MPL MIDAM CIL EEI NWPS ILPC SIPC MHSP CIPS WABNI SPRIL WABD AUEP MDU NPPD LES OPPD $55 Average LMPs for Base, 765kv Overlay, and WIND $50 $45 $40 $35 Avg LMP - 765kV Overlay Avg LMP - Base Case Avg LMP - WIND $30 Loop Flow Patterns Interface AC Flows without an Overlay Interface Flows with an Overlay including HVDC Without Overlay P R I C E Load Savings With AC Overlay With HVDC Overlay Gen Revenue Difference Distance HVDC Is Easier To Regulate Than AC • Users are identifiable • Terminals look like generators( supply-injection) and loads( receipt-withdrawal) • Existing AC system processes can be used to allocate AC costs • DC costs linked to the schedule and who scheduled HVDC Easier to Operate than AC for Long Distance Power Transfers • HVDC can be loaded to its limit – Cannot be overloaded due to contingency- easier to operatealways know what is available for power transfer – AC power delivery may be decreased due to contingencies in intervening systems- power transfer capabilities can change hourly – HVDC only dependent on AC near terminals HVDC Can Do Things That AC Cannot • HVDC can skip over congested areas without having to pay a toll to fix the transmission system in intervening areas that are not involved in the market transactions • HVDC can inject energy strategically MISO Wind Variability Management • Wind rich areas do not have much load or generation to manage the variability of the wind- problem • Managing wind variability at presently projected levels is a political and organizational problem not a technical problem- cooperation solves a good part of the problem • 5-6% energy curtailment of wind • Solutions – MISO is one area of about 100,000 MW – MISO has a 5 minute dispatch period • Less error can occur if adjustments are made every 5 minutes than every hour • Total wind output cannot change too much in 5 minutes – Geographic diversity of wind and load 25 Wind Diversity Wind Correlation vs Distance 1.1 Calculated from data provided though the DOE Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study 1 0.9 0.8 Wind Correlation 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Distance Between Sites (Miles) Poly. (North - South) 550 Poly. (East - West) 600 650 700 750 800 27 Study System ELCC Scenarios (1 - 4) Existing & Overlay Transmission Tie Limits - ELCC (%) {Shaded Area shows Increased ELCC of Overlay} 40% 35% 32.8% 29.8% 30% 27.7% 27.3% 25.4% 25% 28.0% 27.0% 28.3% 28.1% 30.5% Overlay Tie 26.6% 24.1% 26.4% 24.8% 24.6% 24.2% 23.8% 22.7% 20% 20.4% 20.6% 20.2% 19.9% 18.8% 15% 16.0% 10% 5% 0% Scenario-1 System Scenario-2 System 2004 Profile Scenario-3 System 2005 Profile 2006 Profile Scenario-4 System Existing MISO Wind Diversity • Capacity credit in 2009 8% • Capacity credit in 2011 12% • Difference due to wind in Michigan, Indiana and Illinois in addition to Buffalo Ridge in southwest Minnesota • Adding more generation in an area with significant wind generation decreases the capacity credit as the probability of loss of a larger amount of generation is increased. Transmission and Wind Diversity • It may be possible to build HVDC transmission of about 1500 MW in capacity to exchange the diversity of wind • Possibly paid for by – Reduction in generation capacity and fuel needed to manage wind generation – Improvement in the capacity credit for wind that reduces the need for other types of generation – Reduction in load on peak compared to the sum of two areas a long distance apart – Savings in the operational cost of other generation due to cycling that causes thermal stresses and increased maintenance • HVDC could span the East-West ties and make wind more manageable in the west also 30 Inputs • Economic development costs- U of Illinois State – $650,000 per MW for wind for construction – $38,000/yr for maintenance • • • • HVDC line, terminal, ac substation costs CT Generation costs, O&M, heat rates Wind Generation costs EWITS Wind Diversity factors for variability and capacity credit • Annual carrying charge 15%- annual values • Discount factor-8%- used for present value Why Economic Development Should Be Included in Analysis First Year Benefit/Cost Scenario Wind Economic Value including 20.2 Economic Development values 1.8 Without Wind Economic Development Without Wind Economic Development but with carbon dioxide 3.1 elimination credit supported by transmission 15.8 With transmission economic development. Governors and legislatures have recognized the value of eco development for wind generation, but the regulation function has not used it. Projects could be justified and carbon dioxi production reduced if economic development were allowed. Price and Quantity of Sources and Sinks Determine Transmission Requirements West to East Interface Flows OH-PA 25000 20000 MW 15000 10000 5000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0 0 720 1440 2160 2880 3600 4320 5040 Hour of the Year 5760 6480 7200 7920 8640 Transmission Overlay Design Workshop Example Interface Duration Curve Interface Flow 3500 3000 2500 2000 Transmission Capacity designed to deliver 80% of desired energy flow 1000 500 -1000 -1500 -2000 Hours WAPA-MINN 8541 8297 8053 7809 7565 7321 7077 6833 6589 6345 6101 5857 5613 5369 5125 4881 4637 4393 4149 3905 3661 3417 3173 2929 2685 2441 2197 1953 1709 1465 977 733 489 1221 -500 245 0 1 MW Flow 1500 20% Strong 20% 20% Strong Distributed Offshore Most Economical West + RPS 30% What Can Be Done with the Surplus • Reduce the generation – Paying for the generation but not fuel – Must have transmission to deliver renewable energy to the load. The system was designed to deliver from the fuel generation that most likely in another location. • Sell the surplus for a profit – Profit helps reduce the generation payments – Need to be able to deliver energy to the market- pay for transmission-need above $6/MBTU to pay for transmission in the energy market, other products may allow justification of transmission with lower gas prices. – Need access to the markets- need a seller and a buyer pair • Store the energy – Use surplus off peak capacity to drive a CAES plant with a 50% capacity factor- would work in the west today – Manitoba offers a way to “store” energy, need transmission in ND,SD Questions • • • • • Dale Osborn Principle Advisor Regulatory and Economic Studies Email: dosborn@misoenergy.org Phone:651-632-8471 40