Pathways to the Futures of Education Anticipating change and taking informed actions Hawai‘i P-20 Partnership for Education Ko‘olau Ballrooms and Conference Center, 11/13/15 Richard Kaipo Lum, PhD Vision Foresight Strategy LLC “Reframing the future.” www.visionforesightstrategy.com [email protected] Understanding and anticipating change in society FUTURES STUDIES Understand and anticipate change in society… and then help others reframe their expectations and preferences for the future. Two Complementary Aspects Analytic: understanding and anticipating change Synthetic: reframing expectations and preferences Foresight: Insight into how and why the future could be different from the present. Elements of Our Work Preferred futures Forecasting Innovation & creativity Theories of change and stability Trends & emerging issues Images of the future Historical analysis Theories of Change How and why to societies, industries, communities, and organizations change? • “Long wave” theories of economic change • Diffusion of technology throughout society • Pathways of institutional change Scanning and Emerging Issues Analysis Searching for signals of potentially important developments. • Anticipating future public policy issues • Exploring future technologies • Tracking the rise of new concepts and philosophies Rapid maturation, “mainstreaming” Academic/scientific exploration Fringe thinking The “new normal” Who Uses Foresight? It’s happened before, and it will happen again SOCIAL AND INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE The “Roadmap” in the 1950s The “Roadmap” Today…? Scanning for Signals of Emerging Change TRENDS & EMERGING ISSUES Trends vs. Emerging Issues Trends Emerging Issues A Few Trends… • Generational change • Digitization (everything) • Ubiquitous internet access • Shrinking middle class • Rising income inequality • Rising global economic competition • Decline of US student performance • Rising cost of college ed • Decreasing funding for public education • Rising dissatisfaction with ed outcomes • Shift to career readiness …And Some Emerging Issues • • • • • • Adaptive learning Alternative credentialing Augmented/virtual reality Artificial intelligence Big data Co-production/colearning • • • • • Internet of things Learning analytics Nanodegrees Online education Open educational resources • Tighter coupling of employer interests and educational design Visions shape actions and perceptions IMAGES OF THE FUTURE Competing Images of the Future Unwinding Higher Ed The Reformed Institution Bifurcation of Learning Anticipating the reactions of stakeholders RESPONSES TO CHANGE Three Basic Responses to Change Selecting the best approach to achieving goals TYPES OF STRATEGIES Strategy A concept or theory for how, in a given context and employing a given set of resources and competencies, you expect to achieve your goals Three Categories of Strategies Conflict Competition Coincidence Strategies of Conflict Control the dynamic Negotiate while advancing Divide and conquer Take small bites Hit them where it hurts Deterrence Strategies of Competition Segmentation (of the market) Cost leadership (within the market) Differentiation (within the market) Strategies of Coincidence Stepping stone Seeding Network Building block Ecosystem Now let’s play with some of these ideas… 4 Steps to the Future: A Quick and Clean Guide to Foresight By Richard Lum Intended to guide business readers through a complete and easy-to-use process for foresight. The book will: • Provide a complete A-to-Z foresight process in simple and straight forward language • Outline the exercises for running your own workshops • Provide the worksheets needed to lead workshop participants to producing results • Give readers the confidence that their organization is asking the right questions about the future December 2015 Mahalo.