KEY TRENDS IN THE WORLD &
EUROPEAN ARENA &
NEW CHALLENGES FOR FUTURES STUDIES
Jari Kaivo-oja, Adjunct Professor, Finland Futures Research Centre,
University of Turku
Adviser, Crisis Management Initiative, President Ahtisaari´s Office
KEY TRENDS IN THE WORLD: SOCIAL
• Global migration increases
• Increasing longevity (more active 60 year old)
• The old poor class larger/regional underclass
• Growing distrust on institutions and leaders
• Changing roles of sex and generations
• World becomes urban
• Continued bubbles and crashes
• Global educational powerhouses: China & India
KEY TRENDS IN THE WORLD:
TECHNICAL
• Genetics, robotics, informatics and nanotechnology (WRIN waves)
• The era of big creativity and innovation challenges (Rule of 10 000 hours, bohemian
creative class, Quartet Helix, frugal innovation, systemic innovations, etc.)
• Technological capability increases exponentially: technological singularity near
• The Cloud becomes ubiquitous: Web 3.0 and Web 4.0
• New age of transhumanity: Human beings, robots and cyber humans
• Reality and universe secondary, multiverse will be the key field of hypercompetition
KEY TRENDS IN THE WORLD:
ENVIRONMENT
• The rules of time, space & materia are changing: time machines, space
machines and materia machines create ubiquitous r/evolution
• Environmental catastrophes occur
• ”Some like it hot”: the climate change problem and the end of cheap energy era
• The culture of sustainability begins to emerge
KEY TRENDS IN THE WORLD:
ECONOMIC
• Globalisation: Networks, crowds, markets
• The emerging BRICSA economies, especially China will dominate many
markets
• Digital markets, digital money, virtual words, avatars
• Productivity gains: More automation, highly educated workers
• Mega-companies & micro-entrepreneurs emerge
• Agile and smart business organisations
EUROPE 2030
VISION?
PROJECT EUROPE 2030
Challenges and Opportunities
A report to the European Council by the Reflection
Group on the Future of the EU 2030
Web: http://www.reflectiongroup.eu/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/reflection_en_web.pdf
EUROPE 2030?
• Vision element 1: An agent of change in the world, a trendsetter, and not a passive player or witness.
• Vision element 2: Highly competitive and sustainable social
market economy in order to maintain social cohesion and fight
against climate change.
• Vision element 3: EU needs to have a common energy policy
(Renewables & nuclear energy solution).
• Vision element 4: Europeans have met its demographic
challenge.
EUROPE 2030
• Vision element 5: The EU has a strong Single Market against
temptations of economic nationalism and complete it to include
services, the digital society and other dynamic sectors.
• Vision element 6: Improved European tax coordination.
• Vision element 7: Europe will have very modern labour market
and very modern corporate governance practices because of the
progress of robotisation and automatisation.
EUROPE 2030
• Vision element 8: The stronger European Council and the
stronger Eurogroup with more efficient leadership role, in
coordination with the Commission and the European
Parliament.
KEY EUROPEAN QUESTIONS ON THE
EUROPEAN FORESIGHT AGENDA
• Manage financial crisis and re-direct Europe to new economic growth
• Solve unemployment problems – especially youth unemployment
problem
• Keep Europe competive, innovative and open minded (Technology,
Talents, Tolerance)
• Keep Europe secure and safe: internal security, external security,
social security, energy security etc.)
• Make political leadership transparent and efficient
NEW CHALLENGES FOR FUTURES
STUDIES
• Diagnosis-Prognosis-Prescription Methodology (DPP Methodology)
• Adaptive and Agile Foresight processes
• Strategic and participatory foresight more widely used
• Foresight supports strong democracy
• Metaforesight activities
• Foresight and social media ... later European Cloud foresight
capacity
ATTENTION !
CONGRATULATIONS FOR
EMINENT SCHOLAR, PROFESSOR ERIK TERK
AND ESTONIAN ACADEMIC COMMUNITY &
FUTURES RESEARCH FELLOWS !
THANK YOU!
SOME REFERENCES
•
Gratton, L. (2011). The Shift. The Future of Work Is Already Here. London: Collins.
•
Green, E.N. (2010). Anywhere. How Global Connectivity Is Revolutionizing the Way We Do Business? New York: McGrawHill.
•
Greenfield, A. (2006). Everyware: The Dawning Age of Ubiquitous Computing. Berkeley, CA, New Riders.
•
Inkinen, S. & Kaivo-oja, J. (2009). Understanding Innovation Dynamics. Aspects of Creative Processes, Foresight
Strategies, Innovation Media and Innovation Ecosystems. Finland Futures Research Centre. Turku School of Economics.
eBook 9/2009. Turku.
•
Kaivo-oja, J. (2006). Towards Integration of Innovation Systems and Foresight Research in Firms and Corporations. The
Classical Takeuchi-Nonaka Model Reconsidered and Reformulated. FFRC-publications 2/2006. Turku, Turku School of
Economics.
•
Kaivo-oja, J. (2011). Futures of Innovation Systems and Systemic Innovation Systems: Towards Better Innovation Quality
with New Innovation Management Tools. e-Book No 3, Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku, University of Turku.
•
Kaivo-oja, J. (2012). Weak Signals Analysis, Knowledge Management Theory and Systemic Socio -cultural Transitions.
Futures. The Journal of Policy, Planning and Futures Studies. Vol. 44, Issue 3, pp. 206 –217.
•
López, T.S., Ranasinghe, D.C. Harrison, M. & McFarlane, D. (2012). Adding sense to the Internet of Things: An architecture
framework for Smart Object systems. Personal and Ubiquitous Computing. Vol. 16, No 3, 389 -395.
•
Misuraca, G., Broster, D., Centeno, C., Punie, Y., Lampathaki, F., Charalabidis, Y., Askounis, D., Osimo,, D. Katarzyna, S.
(2010). Envisioning Digital Europe 2030: Scenarios for ICT in Future Governance and Policy Modelling. Seville: JRC.
•
Teece, D.J. (2006). Reflections on ‘Profiting from innovation`. Research Policy. Vol 35, No. 8, pp. 1131-1146.
•
Ulwick, A. (2005). What Customers Want: Using Outcome-Driven Innovation to Create Breakthrough Products and
Services. New York, McGrawHill.
•