BALANCE OF THREAT ~ STEPHEN WALT
“Alliance formation and the balance of world politics” (1985)
<~ AGGREGATE POWER
OFFENSIVE
<~ CAPABILITIES
(Perceived)
OFFENSIVE
INTENTIONS ~>
<~ GEOGRAPHICAL PROXIMITY
Perceptions of intent play an especially crucial role in alliance choices (12).
More than any other factor, geography explains why so many…significant powers…ally with the US (36).
This analysis stands many familiar notions of geopolitics on their heads, e.g Halford Mackinder (36, fn).
•
Because the Soviet Union is the largest
power on the Eurasian landmass, it poses a
significant threat to the many states on or
near its borders. Although geographical
proximity may in some cases make it easier
for the Soviet Union to use military power
against its neighbours, this situation also
provided the independent states of Eurasia
with a powerful incentive to seek allies
elsewhere to deter such an attempt or to
defeat it should it occur. (36)
•
Because the PRC (China) is the largest
power on the Asian landmass, it poses a
significant threat to the many states on or
near its borders. Although geographical
proximity may in some cases make it
easier for the PRC to use military power
against its neighbours, this situation also
provided the independent states of Asia
with a powerful incentive to seek allies
elsewhere to deter such an attempt or to
defeat it should it occur.
?
•
For the medium powers of Western Europe
and Asia, the U.S. is the perfect ally. It is
sufficiently powerful to contribute
substantially to their defence, it is driven by
its concerns to oppose Soviet
expansionism, and yet it is sufficiently
distant from these allies so that it does not
itself pose a significant threat. Thus, the
United States is geographically isolated
[distant] but politically popular, while the
Soviet Union is politically isolated as a
consequence of geographic proximity. (36)
•
For the medium powers of Asia, the US is
the perfect ally. It is sufficiently powerful
to contribute substantially to their
defence, it is driven by its concerns to
oppose Chinese expansionism, and yet it
is sufficiently distant from these allies so
that it does not itself pose a significant
threat. Thus the United States is
geographically isolated [distant] but
politically popular, while the PRC is
politically isolated as a consequence of
geographic proximity.
?