Macroeconomics ECON 2301 Spring 2009 Marilyn Spencer, Ph.D. Professor of Economics Chapter 16 Announcement: Extra Credit Opportunity #1 Attend the panel discussion, "The new New Deal: The ins and outs of the Bailout,“ Tuesday, April 28, 2009, 7 p.m. in the University Center Ballroom. To earn up to 4 points of extra credit, email me your summary, in 50-100 words, before the start of class on Tues., May 5. Announcement: Extra Credit Opportunity #2 The Federal Open Market Committee will hold its next meeting April 28-29. To earn up to 4 points of extra credit: On or around April 29, read or listen to a news story that summarizes the most important outcomes of their meeting. Email me your summary of that news story, in 50-100 words, before the start of class on Tues., May 5. Chapter 16: Money Creation & Deposit Insurance Learning Objectives Describe how the Federal Reserve assesses reserve requirements on banks and other depository institutions Understand why the money supply is unaffected when someone deposits in a depository institution funds transferred from a transactions account at a another depository institution Explain why the money supply changes when someone deposits in a depository institution funds transferred from the Federal Reserve System 16-5 Learning Objectives (cont'd) Determine the maximum potential extent to which the money supply will change following a Federal Reserve purchase or sale of government securities Discuss the ways in which the Federal Reserve conducts monetary policy Explain the essential features of federal deposit insurance 16-6 Did You Know That… Through actions initiated by a central bank such as the Federal Reserve, depository institutions together create money? In this chapter, we shall examine the money multiplier process, which explains how an injection of new money into the banking system leads to an eventual multiple expansion in the total money supply. 16-7 Links Between Changes in the Money Supply and Other Economic Variables There are links between changes in the money supply and changes in GDP. There are links between changes in the money supply and the rate of inflation. 16-8 Figure 16-1 Money Supply Growth versus the Inflation Rate 16-9 Links Between Changes in the Money Supply and Other Economic Variables (cont'd) Fractional Reserve Banking A system in which depository institutions hold reserves that are less than the amount of deposits • Originated when goldsmiths issued notes that exceeded the value of gold and silver on hand 16-10 Depository Institution Reserves (cont'd) In a fractional reserve banking system, banks do not keep sufficient reserves on hand to cover 100% of their depositors' accounts. There are three distinguishable types of reserves: legal, required and excess. 16-11 Depository Institution Reserves (cont'd) Reserves In the U.S. Federal Reserve System, deposits held by Federal Reserve district banks for depository institutions, plus depository institutions’ vault cash Legal Reserves Anything that the law permits banks to claim as reserves—for example, deposits held at Federal Reserve district banks and vault cash Required Reserves The value of reserves that a depository institution must hold in the form of vault cash or deposits with the Fed 16-12 Depository Institution Reserves (cont'd) Question Do banks set their own reserve rate? Answer No, the Federal Reserve sets the reserve requirement • Currently it is 10% on most transactions deposits 16-13 Depository Institution Reserves (cont'd) Required Reserve Ratio The percentage of total transactions deposits that the Fed requires depository institutions to hold in the form of vault cash or deposits with the Fed Required reserves = Transactions deposits Required reserve ratio 16-14 Depository Institution Reserves (cont'd) Excess Reserves The difference between legal reserves and required reserves Excess reserves = Legal reserves – Required reserves 16-15 The Relationship Between Legal Reserves and Total Deposits Balance Sheet Statements of assets (what is owned) and liabilities (what is owed) How a single bank reacts to an increase in reserves We will examine the balance sheet of a single bank. Net Worth The difference between assets and liabilities 16-16 The Relationship Between Legal Reserves and Total Deposits (cont'd) We assume 1. Reserve ratio is 10% 2. Transactions deposits are the bank’s only liabilities and loans are the bank’s assets 3. An individual bank can lend as much as legally allowed 4. Every time a loan is made, the proceeds are put into a deposit account (nothing withdrawn) 5. Zero excess reserves are kept 6. Banks have zero net worth 16-17 The Relationship Between Legal Reserves and Total Deposits (cont'd) Description of a Balance Sheet Assets Liabilities What is owned What is owed Reserves Deposits Loans Net Worth = Assets – Liabilities 16-18 Balance Sheet 16-1 Typical Bank Reserve Ratio = 10% 16-19 The Relationship Between Legal Reserves and Total Deposits (cont'd) Balance Sheet: Typical Bank Assets Liabilities Assume a depositor deposits in Typical Bank a $100,000 debit-card payment drawn on a transactions account at another depository institution. 16-20 Balance Sheet 16-2 Typical Bank Transactions deposits in Typical Bank immediately increase by $100,000, bringing the total to $1.1 million. 16-21 The Relationship Between Legal Reserves and Total Deposits (cont'd) Following the deposit What are the required reserves of Typical Bank? Required reserves = .10 $1,100,000 = $110,000 Does Typical Bank have excess reserves? Excess reserves = $200,000 – $110,000 = $90,000 16-22 Balance Sheet 16-2 Typical Bank (cont'd) Typical Bank has: required reserves of $110,000 and excess reserves of $90,000. 16-23 The Relationship Between Legal Reserves and Total Deposits (cont'd) Following the deposit What will Typical Bank do with its excess reserves? • Loan them out Could Typical Bank safely loan out more than its excess reserves? • By law holds a certain amount of required reserves 16-24 Balance Sheet 16-3 Typical Bank Typical Bank lends $90,000, but the borrowers do not leave this amount on deposit at Typical Bank. 16-25 The Relationship Between Legal Reserves and Total Deposits (cont'd) What do you think? Did this loan expand the money supply? Hints Have the reserves of the banking system changed? What happened to the loan balance at the bank where the deposit came from? Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison Wesley. All rights reserved. 16-26 The Relationship Between Legal Reserves and Total Deposits (cont'd) Effect on the money supply New reserves for the banking system as a whole are not created when debit-card or check payments are transferred from one bank and deposited in another bank. The Federal Reserve System can however, create new reserves—the subject of our next section. 16-27 The Fed’s Direct Effect on the Overall Level of Reserves The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Can instruct the New York Federal Reserve Bank trading desk to buy or sell bonds Open Market Operations The purchase and sale of existing U.S. government securities (such as bonds) in the open private market by the Federal Reserve System 16-28 Balance Sheet 16-4 The Fed buys $100,000 of U.S. government securities. 16-29 Balance Sheet 16-4 The reserves and the money supply increase by $100,000. 16-30 Balance Sheet 16-5 Now the Fed sells $100,000 of U.S. government securities. 16-31 The Fed’s Direct Effect on the Overall Level of Reserves (cont'd) The bank’s reserves and money supply both fall by $100,000. 16-32 Money Expansion by the Banking System Consider the entire banking system; for practical purposes, we can look at all depository institutions taken as a whole. To understand how money is created, we must understand how depository institutions respond to Fed actions that increase reserves in the entire system. 16-33 Balance Sheet 16-6 Bank 1 This shows Bank 1’s original position before the Fed’s purchase of a $100,000 U.S. government security. 16-34 Balance Sheet 16-7 Bank 1 Fed transfers $100,000 to Bank 1 immediately increasing the money supply by the same amount. Bank 1 has excess reserves of $90,000. 16-35 Balance Sheet 16-8 Bank 1 Figure 16-8 shows Bank 1 expands its loans by $90,000. 16-36 Balance Sheet 16-9 Bank 2 (Changes Only) The borrower deposits $90,000 in Bank 2, and Bank 2 now has money to lend out. 16-37 Balance Sheet 16-10 Bank 2 (Changes Only) Bank 2 makes a loan for $81,000, the amount of its excess reserves. 16-38 Money Expansion by the Banking System (cont'd) Recall The Fed bought a bond and deposited it at Bank 1, immediately increasing the money supply by $100,000. The deposit creation process (in addition to the $100,000) occurs because of the fractional reserve banking system. Banks will lend out any excess reserves as they can earn interest income on new loans. 16-39 Balance Sheet 16-11 Bank 3 (Changes Only) Assume the firm borrowing $81,000 from Bank 2 spends these funds, which are deposited in Bank 3. 16-40 Balance Sheet 16-12 Bank 3 (Changes Only) We assume Bank 3 will want to lend all of those non-interest-earning assets (excess reserves of $72,900). 16-41 E-Commerce Example: Remote Capture Speeds the Check Clearing Process Traditional check-clearing typically takes one to three days to complete. Internet based institutions pioneered a concept called remote capture. Remote capture cuts the time to just an hour. 16-42 Money Expansion by the Banking System (cont'd) Question Looking over our balance sheets, how much do you think the money supply increased after the Fed’s $100,000 purchase of government securities and the three bank loans? 16-43 Money Expansion by the Banking System (cont'd) $100,000 Purchase by the Fed 90,000 Loan by Bank 1 81,000 Loan by Bank 2 72,900 Loan by Bank 3 $343,900 Total What do you think? • Could Banks 4, 5, 6, etc. create even more money? • How much can be created? 16-44 Table 16-1 Maximum Money Creation with 10 Percent Required Reserves 16-45 Figure 16-2 The Multiple Expansion in the Money Supply Due to $100,000 in New Reserves When the Required Reserve Ratio Is 10 Percent 16-46 Money Expansion by the Banking System (cont'd) Only when additional new reserves and deposits are created by the Federal Reserve System does the money supply increase. The reverse process occurs when there is a decrease in reserves because the Fed sells $100,000 in government securities. 16-47 The Money Multiplier Money Multiplier Gives the maximum potential change in the money supply due to a change in reserves Potential money multiplier = Actual D in money supply = 1 Required reserve ratio Actual money multiplier 16-48 D in total reserves The Money Multiplier (cont'd) Example Fed buys $100,000 of government securities Reserve ratio = 10% Potential change 1 in the money = $100,000 = $1,000,000 x .10 supply 16-49 The Money Multiplier (cont'd) Forces that reduce the money multiplier Leakages • Currency drains • Excess reserves Real-world money multipliers M1 multiplier = 2.5–3.0 M2 multiplier = 6.5 in the 1960s to over 12 in the 2000s 16-50 Ways in Which the Federal Reserve Changes the Money Supply 1. Open market operations 2. Reserve requirement 3. Discount rate 16-51 Ways in Which the Federal Reserve Changes the Money Supply (cont'd) Discount Rate The interest rate that the Federal Reserve charges for reserves it lends to depository institutions Federal Funds Market A private market in which banks can borrow reserves from other banks that want to lend them Federal Funds Rate The interest rate that depository institutions pay to borrow reserves in the interbank federal funds market 16-52 Ways in Which the Federal Reserve Changes the Money Supply (cont'd) Today’s discount rate policy is to set discount rate above the federal funds rate. Question Why would the Fed do this? 16-53 Ways in Which the Federal Reserve Changes the Money Supply (cont'd) Question What if the Fed changes reserve requirements it imposes? What if reserve requirements go from 10% to 20%? Answer Then the money multiplier changes from 10 to 5. 16-54 Table 16-2 Required Reserve Ratios in Selected Nations 16-55 Sweep Accounts and the Decreased Relevance of Reserve Requirements Many banks offer automatic transfer accounts, in which savings account balances are transferred to demand deposit accounts only when needed. This feature allows banks to hold fewer reserves as savings deposits are exempt from reserve requirements. Sweep Account A depository institution account that entails regular shifts of funds from transactions deposits that are subject to reserve requirements to savings deposits that are exempt from reserve requirements 16-56 Sweep Accounts and the Decreased Relevance of Reserve Requirements (cont'd) Banks use sweep accounts to shift funds from checking accounts into savings accounts until they are needed to settle check payments. Consequently, more of money supply growth has been shifted to M2, and M1 is considered a less reliable indicator of total liquidity. 16-57 Federal Deposit Insurance When businesses fail, they create hardships for creditors, owners and customers. When a depository institution fails even greater hardship results as many individuals and businesses depend on the safety and security of banks. Bank Runs Attempts by many of a bank’s depositors to convert transactions and time deposits into currency out of fear that the bank’s liabilities may exceed its assets 16-58 Figure 16-4 Bank Failures Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation 16-59 Federal Deposit Insurance (cont’d) Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) A government agency that insures the deposits held in banks and most other depository institutions; all U.S. banks are insured this way. How deposit insurance causes increased risk taking by bank managers Lack of correlation between risk taking and insurance premiums. 16-60 Federal Deposit Insurance (cont'd) Deposit insurance, adverse selection, and moral hazard Adverse selection arises when there is asymmetric information. • Information possessed by one side of a transaction but not the other • The side with more information will be at an advantage. 16-61 Federal Deposit Insurance (cont'd) Deposit insurance, adverse selection, and moral hazard Moral hazard arises as a result of information asymmetry after a transaction has occurred. The results of moral hazard The S&L crisis of the mid-1980s • More than 1,500 savings and loan associations failed. • The estimated taxpayer cost was $200 billion. 16-62 Issues and Applications: Smart Cards, Digital Cash, and the Money Supply The microchips embedded in smart cards give them a technical edge over debit cards. At present, about 300 million smart cards are used around the globe. In a world in which people widely use digital cash the money multiplier would be larger. 16-63 Figure 16-5 The Distribution of the World’s Smart Cards 16-64 Summary of Learning Objectives How the Federal Reserve assesses reserve requirements Establishes a required reserve ratio, currently 10% Why the money supply does not change when someone deposits in a depository institution funds transferred from another depository institution Because total deposits remain unchanged for the banking system as a whole 16-65 Summary of Learning Objectives (cont'd) Why the money supply does change when someone deposits in a depository institution funds transferred from the Federal Reserve System There is an immediate increase in total deposits in the banking system as a whole The maximum potential change in the money supply following a Federal Reserve purchase or sale of U.S. government securities The multiplier 16-66 Summary of Learning Objectives (cont'd) The Fed influences the money supply through Open market operations, the discount rate, and the reserve requirement The FDIC was established in 1933 to prevent bank runs. Difficulties include adverse selection and moral hazard 16-67 Assignment to be completed before class April 28: Study Chapters 14, 15 & 16 & be prepared to ask questions during our review.