In contrast to previous recessions, real output per hour
remained largely stagnant since 2008
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
Quarters since the labelled quarter
1979 Q4
1990 Q2
2008 Q1
In contrast to previous recessions, real output per hour
remained largely stagnant since 2008
102.0
100.0
98.0
96.0
94.0
Output per hour worked
Output per worker
92.0
2015 Q1
2014 Q1
2013 Q1
2012 Q1
2011 Q1
2010 Q1
2009 Q1
90.0
2008 Q1
Indexed to 100 2008 Q2
104.0
Changes to total output, employment and hours worked since 2008Q1
102
100
98
96
94
Output
Total hours
Employment
92
Source: Cribb and Joyce (IFS, 2015)
2015 Q1
2014 Q1
2013 Q1
2012 Q1
2011 Q1
2010 Q1
2009 Q1
90
2008 Q1
Indexed to 100 2008 Q1
104
Mean weekly real earnings fell strongly
adjusted for RPIJ inflation and indexed to 100 in 2008Q1
105
100
95
90
LFS
ASHE
85
Source: Cribb and Joyce (IFS, 2015), and Jin (2015).
Earnings and productivity growth
Output per hour compared to mean hourly earnings in LFS (GDP deflated) since 2008Q2
Indexed to 100 in 2008Q2
105
100
95
Output per hour worked
Mean hourly earnings
© Institute for Fiscal Studies
Source: Cribb and Joyce (2015), and Jin (2015).
2015Q1
2014Q3
2014Q1
2013Q3
2013Q1
2012Q3
2012Q1
2011Q3
2011Q1
2010Q3
2010Q1
2009Q3
2009Q1
2008Q3
2008Q1
90
Household earnings and net incomes 2007–08 to 2013–14
(non-pensioners in working households, by percentile point)
Cumulative income change
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
Gross household earnings
Net household income (BHC)
-20%
5
10
© Institute for Fiscal Studies
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Percentile point
Source: Living Standards, Poverty and Inequality: IFS, 2015
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
Non- and semi-durables per head
125
Quarter before recession = 100
120
1980
115
1990
2008
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
Quarters since start of recession
© Institute for Fiscal Studies
Source: Crossley, Low & O'Dea (2015)
Now to the main event……
And first we have:
‘Labour Markets since the Crisis’
© Institute for Fiscal Studies
Business investment has been very slow to pick up
8
Change since 2008 Q1, £bn
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
business investment
© Institute for Fiscal Studies
Durables per head
Quarter before recession = 100
150
140
1980
1990
2008
130
120
110
100
90
80
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
Quarters since start of recession
© Institute for Fiscal Studies
Source: Crossley, Low & O'Dea (2015)