KARVY CURRENCY INSIGHT
DATE:17/05/2016
MARKET OVERVIEW
GLOBAL TRACKER
Global markets are trading on a positive
note with Asia taking lead from the uptick
in US markets last night.
Dollar remained grounded against all the
majors except against the Pound which
rallied in yesterday’s session. Focus would
continue to remain on Pound with inflation
data scheduled to be released today.
MARKETS
YESTERDAY
Close
TODAY
CLOSE
Nasdaq
4717
4775
+1.21
Dow Jones
17535
17710
+.1.01
Nikkei
16466
16615
+0.90
Hang Seng
19883
19897
+0.07
SGX NIFTY
7884
7907
+0.35
U.S. Market
% change
ASIA
Indian rupee is set to open on a flat note
after the WPI data has seen an uptick
yesterday. Long term outlook remains
negative for rupee but intraday movement
could be muted.
YESTERDAY
AT 5.PM
Global
Currency
NDF
TODAY
MORNING % change
EUR/USD
1.1320
1.1319
-0.01%
GBP/USD
1.4367
1.4486
+0.81%
USD / JPY
108.91
108.97
+0.05%
66.80
66.79
`+0.13%
USDINRSPOT
USDINR (May)- STRATEGY
ENTRY
TARGET
STOP LOSS
BUY
66.86-66.88
67.08
66.76
EUR/INR(May)- STRATEGY
ENTRY
TARGET
STOP LOSS
SELL
75.99-76.09
75.70
76.15
GBP/ INR(May)- STRATEGY
ENTRY
TARGET
STOP LOSS
BUY
96.65-96.75
97.20
96.60
JPY/INR(May)--STRATEGY
ENTRY
TARGET
STOP LOSS
RANGE
61.30-61.70
USDINR OUTLOOK
CURRENCY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
USDINR TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Above is the Daily Chart of USDINR, the pair opened at 67.02, and made a high of 67.07 and
came down from higher levels but upward sloping trend line and higher low formation helped the
pair to bounce from the lower levels, the pair is expected to consolidate until close above 67.05
levels with strong volume ,where 50dma lies as RSI stand at 54.16 levels .
STRATEGY(May)-
ENTRY
BUY
TARGET
66.86-66.88
STOP LOSS
67.08
66.76
RES
PIVOT
SUP
TREND
67.05/67.15/67.20
66.90
66.94/66.84/66.76
NEUTRAL
Fundamental Overview
US dollar index is trading at 94.48, on a marginally lower note today. Weaker than expected
manufacturing data triggered a selloff in the US dollar but prices quickly moved back. Dollar
remained unchanged against the EURO and Yen but depreciated against the Pound, which shot up
in yesterday's session. Building permits, housing starts and inflation data from the US in the
evening would be the key data to be watched out for.
Economic Data & News
TIME
COUNTRY
DATA
01:30:00
USD
TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Mar)
18:00:00
USD
18:00:00
ACTUAL
SURV
PREVIOUS
36.5B
72.0B
Building Permits (Apr)
1.130M
1.086M
USD
Building Permits (MoM) (Apr)
4.30%
-7.70%
18:00:00
USD
Core CPI (MoM) (Apr)
0.20%
0.10%
18:00:00
USD
CPI (MoM) (Apr)
0.30%
0.10%
18:00:00
USD
Housing Starts (Apr)
1.129M
1.089M
18:00:00
USD
Housing Starts (MoM) (Apr)
2.90%
-8.80%
EUR/USD
EURINR
CURRENCY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
EUR/USD. Pair after opening at 1.1310 made a high of 1.1330 , and was trading in the narrow
range for the day with some positive bias, the pair is making lower top and lower bottom on hourly
chart with prices trading below its 200HMA that stand at 1.1380 until its trade above its recent
swing high of 1.1457 any exhaustive opportunity in the pair
STRATEGY
SELL
ENTRY
1.13401.1350
TARGET
1.12801.1250
STOP LOSS
STRATEGY
1.1370
RES
PIVOT
SUP
1.1440/1.1490
1.1400
1.1280/1250
SELL
ENTRY
TARGET
STOP LOSS
75.9976.09
75.70
76.15
RES
PIVOT
SUP
76.05/76.35
76.00
75.81/75.68
Fundamental Overview
Euro is trading at 1.1320, remaining largely unchanged in yesterday's session as most of the
European markets remained closed. Euro gained marginally in the US session, only to retreat as
markets shrugged off the weak manufacturing data from the US. There is no major economic data
scheduled to be reported from the EU but focus would be on the minutes of the last ECB meeting
as investors would be looking for clues of further stimulus from the ECB.
Economic Data & News
TIME
14:30:00
COUNTRY
EUR
EVENT
Trade Balance (Mar)
ACTUAL
SURV
PREVIOUS
22.5B
GBP/USD
GBP/INR
CURRENCY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
GBP/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
ABOVE is the Daily chart of GBPUSD pair after opening at 1.4355, made a high of 1.4383 and
was trading with negative bias overall trend remains weak yesterday, but the pair took support of
100SMA around 1.4330 and reversed from the levels if the pair can trade above 1.4540 levels we
may see short covering in the pair with supports coming in at 1.4400
STRATEGY
BUY
ENTRY
ABV 1.4530
TARGET
1.4570
STOP
LOSS
1.4500
RES
PIVOT
SUP
1.4560/1.4495
1.4450
1.4440/1/4380
STRATEGY
ENTRY
TARGET
STOP LOSS
BUY
96.6596.75
97.20
96.60
RES
97.59/97.45/97.15
PIVOT
96.85
SUP
96.75/96.49/96.30
Fundamental Overview
Pound is trading close to the 1.45 mark, taking a bounce from the recent lows of 1.4330. There was
no specific reason for such a strong rally as no major data was reported in yesterday's session.
Inflation data is scheduled to be reported in the afternoon, which is expected to improve. Going by
the inflation expectations report published last week, an uptick in the inflation data can be expected
and could lead to further appreciation in the pound. Overall, Pound remains weak but with heavy
built up of short positions, interim bouts of volatility can be expected in the opposite direction.
Economic Data & News
TIME
14:00:00
14:00:00
14:00:00
COUNTRY
GBP
GBP
GBP
DATA
CPI (MoM) (Apr)
CPI (YoY) (Apr)
PPI Input (MoM) (Apr)
ACTUAL
SURV
0.30%
0.50%
1.10%
PREVIOUS
0.40%
0.50%
2.00%
USD/JPY
JPYINR
CURRENCY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
USD/JPY pair after opening at 108.64 and made a low of 108.43 and was consolidating in the
narrow range ,the pair is finding supports at the lower levels with divergence in price and indicators
which confirm demand at lower levels with prices near its 8 and 21DMA at is 108.51 and 108.81
so short term any dip is a buy opportunity until prices close below 108
STRATEGY
ENTRY
RANE
108.20109.50
TARGET
STOP LOSS
STRATEGY
ENTRY
TARGET
RANGE
61.30-61.70
STOP LOSS
RES
PIVOT
SUP
RES
PIVOT
SUP
109.10/109.50
108.70
107.85/106.45
62.01/61.78/61.55
61.45
61.20/61.00/60.75
Fundamental Overview
Japanese Yen is trading at 108.97, trading near 109.0 with no change from yesterday’s level.
Markets would be looking forward to the GDP report that is due to be published this week. Yen is
likely to remain in the range for the time being and before the G7 finance ministers meeting
scheduled in this month.
Economic Data & News
TIME
COUNTRY
10:00:00 JPY
DATA
Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar)
ACTUAL
SURV
3.60%
PREVIOUS
3.60%
Disclaimer
The information and views presented in this report are prepared by Karvy
CURRENCY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
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