Introduction to market-based mechanisms for optimizing usage of transmission network assets: transmission capacity auctions prepared by London Economics International LLC October 17, 2005 Régie de l’Énergie (“Régie”) is currently in the process of evaluating Phase II of Hydro-Quebec TransÉnergie’s (“HQT”) rate case. Traditionally, rates for transmission service along HQT’s network have been set using a cost-of-service methodology. The cost-of-service ratemaking approach aims to ensure full cost recovery (including a reasonable commercial return on investment) for the applicant, in this case, HQT. The cost-of-service methodology, however, does not take into account the market value that other entities may place on the services that HQT provides, namely the transmission capacity that it makes available. An auction process, whereby firms compete to buy (or reserve) transmission capacity may allow HQT to further optimize the usage of its transmission network and increase revenues. There are ample examples of such transmission auctions. This brief paper provides an overview of auction mechanisms and describes the experiences of a sample of jurisdictions with transmission auction processes, as described in the table below. The experiences of these other jurisdictions illustrate that the concept of an auction of transmission rights is commercially viable. Furthermore, there are many analogous conditions in these other jurisdictions to that in Quebec, further suggesting that the experiences of these jurisdictions is of relevance to HQT’s situation. Jurisdiction Type of auction Coverage of auction Germany to France physical capacity rights unilateral (Germany to France) cross-border transmission paths daily, monthly, and quarterly Czech Rep. - Germany - Poland physical capacity rights all cross-border transmission paths daily, monthly, and annual Nordel implicit auction (physical and financial transmission rights) all cross-border transmission paths daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, annual, and multi-year New York purely financial contracts; point-to-point obligation all internal transmission paths 6 months, one-year, multi-year (up to five years), with monthly reconfiguration auctions PJM purely financial contracts; point-to-point obligation all internal transmission paths annual and monthly (on- and offpeak, or all 24 hours) New England purely financial contracts; point-to-point obligation all internal transmission paths annual and monthly (on- and offpeak) Ontario purely financial contracts; external point-to-point paths all external point-to-point paths monthly and annual California both physical grandfathered rights and financial contracts using flowgates; upcoming market redesign will switch to point-to-point all internal transmission paths annual MISO purely financial contracts; point-to-point obligation all internal transmission paths annual and monthly (on- and offpeak) Texas purely financial contracts; flowgate rights all internal transmission paths monthly and annual London Economics International LLC 717 Atlantic Avenue, Unit 1A Boston, MA 02111 www.londoneconomics.com 1 Typical terms of transmission rights contact: Julia Frayer 617-494-8200 julia@londoneconomics.com Table of Contents 1 WHAT IS AN AUCTION? ................................................................................................................................3 1.1 1.2 1.3 2 WHY USE AUCTIONS FOR TRANSMISSION CAPACITY?....................................................................................3 WHAT IS SOLD AT A TRANSMISSION CAPACITY AUCTION?.............................................................................4 HOW ARE THE AUCTIONS RUN? .....................................................................................................................5 EUROPEAN CASE STUDIES ..........................................................................................................................7 2.1 2.2 GERMANY TO FRANCE: UNILATERAL EXPLICIT AUCTION ............................................................................10 CZECH REPUBLIC – POLAND – GERMANY: MULTILATERAL EXPLICIT AUCTIONS .........................................11 3 NORTH AMERICAN CASE STUDIES.........................................................................................................14 4 CONCLUDING REMARKS ...........................................................................................................................18 5 APPENDIX A: SAMPLE GUIDE TO AN AUCTION OF PHYSICAL TRANSMISSION CAPACITY 19 6 APPENDIX B: FURTHER DESCRIPTION OF FINANCIAL TRANSMISSION RIGHTS....................21 7 APPENDIX C: KEY CHARACTERISTICS OF FTR MARKETS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA........23 Table of Figures FIGURE 1. CONGESTION MANAGEMENT METHODS IN EUROPE ...................................................................................8 FIGURE 2. ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE OF PRICE FORMATION PROCESS FOR CROSS-BORDER EXPLICIT AUCTIONS ...........9 FIGURE 3. GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF PRICE FORMATION EXAMPLE...............................................................10 FIGURE 4. BREAKDOWN OF AUCTION RESULTS BY TERM FOR THE GERMANY TO FRANCE INTERCONNECTION.......11 FIGURE 5. DAILY AUCTION RESULTS FOR OCTOBER 9, 2005 ALONG THE CZECH REPUBLIC-GERMANY INTERTIE ...12 FIGURE 6. RESULTS OF YEARLY AND MONTH MULTILATERAL EXPLICIT AUCTIONS...................................................13 FIGURE 7. MARKET-CLEARING PRICES FROM RECENT LONG-TERM TCC AUCTIONS (SPRING 2005), $/MW/ 6MONTH OR $/MW/1-YEAR ...............................................................................................................................17 FIGURE 8. CEPS AUCTION SCHEDULE OF EVENTS FOR ALL PRODUCTS IN 2005 ........................................................19 FIGURE 9. STYLIZED EXAMPLE OF AN FTR .................................................................................................................21 London Economics International LLC 717 Atlantic Avenue, Unit 1A Boston, MA 02111 www.londoneconomics.com 2 contact: Julia Frayer 617-494-8200 julia@londoneconomics.com 1 What is an auction? According to the Cambridge University Press, an auction is a “public sale of goods or property, where people make higher and higher bids (offers of money) for each item, until the item is sold to the person who will pay most.”1 One expert describes auctions as forums for “allocating and pricing scarce resources.”2 In this respect, auctions appear to be a natural solution for optimizing HQT’s transmission network. Auctions have been used to sell goods and services since the times of the ancient Greeks and Romans. But only recently, since the pioneering work of Vickrey,3 have economists seriously examined what does and does not make auctions successful, and how to structure the rules of sale so as to best meet the sellers’ objectives. At the same time, as the theory of auction mechanisms has advanced, we have observed a proliferation of application of auctions to a variety of products and services, including gas pipeline capacity, generation assets (including “virtual capacity”), electric transmission rights, radio spectrum rights, 3G telecommunications licenses, and airport landing slots (to name a few). The most basic type of auction is an “ascending” auction, which is a process wherein one or more items are for sale, there are several bidders for each item and the auction allows for multiple bidding rounds. The auction proceeds in rounds, and closes when no bidder wishes to increase its bid on any of the items for sale. This closure rule can be specific to sub-sets of the items for sale or can apply to the whole set. At each round, bidders can only increase their bid, and must increase their bid so as to beat the winning bid in the previous round by a threshold amount. The best known example of ascending auctions is the open outcry English auction commonly used for the sale of art. Some other common forms of ascending auctions are first-price and second-price auctions; in the former auction the highest bidder wins and pays the amount he bid, whereas in the latter auction the highest bidder wins but pays the amount of the second highest bid. A Dutch auction, on the other hand, is a “decreasing” auction where the initial bid is set very high and the auctioneer incrementally lowers the bid until a bidder stops the auction and claims the item. There are also auctions that involve multiple products, for example combinatorial auctions. 1.1 Why use auctions for transmission capacity? Economists have long argued that the best regulation is that which emulates competition. An auction of transmission rights would achieve this goal. Auctions of point-to-point transmission capacity on HQT’s network would promote and accommodate efficient allocation of HQT’s transmission – i.e., transmission capacity will go to those buyers that value it the most. The Régie has made it clear in its stipulations to HQT that it is concerned with the underutilization 1 See, Cambridge Dictionary of American English, Cambridge University Press, 2001. 2 See, Crampton, P. “Ascending Auctions,” European Economic Review, 42, 1998, 745-756. 3 See, for example, Vickrey, W. “Counterspeculation, Auctions, and Competitive Sealed Tenders,” Journal of Finance, 16, 1961, 8-37. London Economics International LLC 717 Atlantic Avenue, Unit 1A Boston, MA 02111 www.londoneconomics.com 3 contact: Julia Frayer 617-494-8200 julia@londoneconomics.com of HQT’s transmission network. An auction, if structured properly, should allow HQT to maximize the utilization of its system and also the revenue potential of its asset base (by setting rates based on market signals or supplementing regulated revenues with market-based sales). There is a lot of flexibility in the auction design process. For example, HQT can auction off all its network capacity or it can sell only the spare capacity, after meeting the needs of local load. Furthermore, HQT can auction off individual point-to-point capacity associated with the interties, or it can auction off a specific set of point-to-point paths. In addition, key policy objectives can be incorporated into the auction process. The approved cost-of-service revenue requirement can be used to guide HQT in setting the “floor” or reservation price for the auction, thus ensuring that HQT would meet its revenue target. To the extent that new investment (generation or transmission) is necessary, auction outcomes will provide location-specific signals to investors about the needs of the system, and incremental revenues can be set aside and used by HQT to finance needed transmission upgrades. In addition, the auction can be customized, possibly through the auction-clearing process and the use of bundled sets of point-to-point paths, to comply with the Régie’s directives to maintain territorial uniformity of rates. 1.2 What is sold at a transmission capacity auction? Transmission capacity auctions sell what are commonly referred to as transmission rights these are essentially property rights, which entitle the owner of the right (i.e., the winning bidder) to use the transmission capacity along the specified path or route on the electricity network for the duration of the right. In other words, the owner is paying to reserve transmission capacity on the system. Generally, transmission rights serve multiple purposes, all of which are intended to make markets more efficient and competitive, as we discuss further below. There are two broad categories of transmission rights: physical capacity rights and financial transmission rights (referred to as “FTRs” in some jurisdictions). Auctions of physical capacity rights involve the forward sale of actual capacity on the network path. The buyer of the physical transmission capacity can then use the capacity to facilitate his future trades. The buyer pays for this transmission reservation at the auction based on the auction clearing price and typically there are no additional charges for use of this capacity.4 The auction clearing price represents the lowest accepted bid for transmission capacity necessary to set total demand for transmission equal to total supply (i.e., total available capacity). Therefore, the auction clearing price reflects the maximum willingness to pay of the bidders (buyers of capacity). The main objective of using auctions to allocate physical capacity is to optimize the use of the network and ensure that limited transmission capacity goes to those who value it most. The efficiency consideration is one of the main drivers behind the European Union’s decision to compel auction mechanisms for rationalizing scarce transmission capacity between member states. 4 Though there may be additional charges associated with use of other parts of the transmission network or other transmission services. London Economics International LLC 717 Atlantic Avenue, Unit 1A Boston, MA 02111 www.londoneconomics.com 4 contact: Julia Frayer 617-494-8200 julia@londoneconomics.com Auctions of financial transmission rights involve the sale of a financial instrument that is derived from the underlying physical capacity. The underlying purpose of a physical rights auction and financial rights auction is alike and typically the auction process, itself, would be similarly driven by supply-demand fundamentals. There is, however, one key difference between an FTR and a physical transmission right. The buyer of the FTR at the auction pays for the right to receive (or pay) congestion rents5 associated with the specified transmission path, rather than to use the physical capacity. Thus, FTRs require a settlement process after completion of the auction. In deregulated electricity markets with centralized power pools or exchanges and a nodal or locational marginal pricing system, financial transmission rights are the preferred auction product as they provide flexibility to the system operator with respect to physical operations while allowing market participants to buy instruments that efficiently allocate a derivative of the physical transmission capacity and provide buyers with a financial hedge against transmission congestion. For instance, FTRs are used across the U.S., in the Nordic countries in Europe, and Australia. Over the longer term, financial transmission rights are expected to serve as a catalyst for investment. Congestion rents collected through FTR sales can be used to signal the need for incremental system investment and finance such incremental investment in both transmission capacity and location-specific generation capacity. In our opinion, a physical transmission capacity auction would be a more appropriate option for HQT. A financial transmission right auction would be difficult to implement in the absence of a wholesale energy market with locational pricing. A physical transmission capacity auction could be put into place within the current industry structure in Quebec and would effectively allow HQT to realize the same objectives: optimization of system utilization, more efficient allocation of capacity, and maximization of revenues. 1.3 How are the auctions run? A centralized auction for transmission rights is usually coordinated by an Independent System Operator (“ISO”), a neutral party that does not favor any individual market participant (in some cases, the Transmission Owner is also the ISO). The time length of the auction product can range from an hour to a year or longer (though most FTRs have had terms of a year or less). Often, there are secondary markets in which acquired transmission rights can be sold by one market participant to another (a secondary market is in fact an important pre-requisite for achieving the most efficient outcomes for the market as a whole and for the entity selling the transmission rights). In the event that a market participant is unable to pay for an accepted bid (i.e., defaults) or a product is not fully sold out, the ISO often acts as counterparty to the transmission owner for the transmission right obligation. Therefore, in order to maintain the financial solvency of the ISO and not jeopardize system reliability, the auction must satisfy “simultaneous feasibility 5 Congestion rents arise when transmission line constraints prevent cheap power from one region (market) from flowing to a higher priced region (market). The need to dispatch more expensive generation in the region cut off from further imports means that prices in that region rise; those who control the available export capacity on the line are then able to garner additional revenues from the resulting higher prices in the zone to which they are exporting. These additional revenues are typically referred to as “congestion rents.” London Economics International LLC 717 Atlantic Avenue, Unit 1A Boston, MA 02111 www.londoneconomics.com 5 contact: Julia Frayer 617-494-8200 julia@londoneconomics.com conditions” dictated by the technical constraints of the transmission system. In other words, the ISO has to determine ahead of time how much capacity is (expected to be) available for the term of the transmission right. As with other auction mechanisms and competitive solicitation processes, there will be auction rules that dictate how potential bidders get qualified to participate and how the auction process will proceed – for example, what rules govern participation and whether it will be a sealed-bid or an open bidding process. We discuss some of these issues on a case-by-case basis in the next two sections of this paper. More detailed information on auction rules and the accompanying standard contracts (which assign the property right) are widely available from the entities running these auctions and can be used as the foundation for setting up a process in Quebec. For conceptual purposes, Appendix A to this paper contains a step-by-step guide that has been adopted from the auction rules developed and implemented by the Transmission System Operator in the Czech Republic for their cross-border auctions of physical transmission capacity. London Economics International LLC 717 Atlantic Avenue, Unit 1A Boston, MA 02111 www.londoneconomics.com 6 contact: Julia Frayer 617-494-8200 julia@londoneconomics.com 2 European case studies The European power sector has been evolving rapidly over the last five years, though certain jurisdictions deregulated their electricity sector as far back as the early 1990s. The European Union (“EU”) has set policy objective for its member nations which has opened the transmission networks to competition (open access) and has also orchestrated the privatization of electricity sector assets once held typically by a publicly-owned monopoly. The landscape of the European energy sector is in many ways similar to North America. For example, the regional independence in the U.S. and Canadian provinces is paralleled by the national market structure in Europe, where each member state has effectively its own national market. As in North America, cross-border (inter-regional) trade in electricity is evolving and is in fact an important element of many of the continental European markets which rely on imports and exports from neighboring countries to provide low cost power for their native consumers. There is also a patchwork of different regulations and industrial structures in Europe, with some nations retaining public ownership of electric sector assets and others privatizing completely. This is similar to the assortment of state (provincial), regional, and Federal regulation in the U.S. and Canada, and public (municipal and Crown corporations) and investor-owned corporate structures. The Florence Regulatory Forum, which began in 1998, laid the groundwork for discussing the creation of a truly internal electricity market in the EU. One important step toward this goal was the passing of Regulation 1228/2003 by the European Parliament into law. This Regulation, which came into force in the EU on July 1, 2004, seeks to enhance competition in the power sector by facilitating cross-border trade among member countries. It states that crossborder congestion management should have non-discriminatory market-based solutions that give efficient economic signals. 6 Both physical and financial transmission capacity rights auctions have taken place in various jurisdictions in Europe to comply with the above noted regulation. The overall objective has been the same behind the use of auctions: let the market decide how to efficiently allocate scarce transmission capacity. Figure 1 on the following page provides a list of EU interconnections that have had transmission rights auctions. With few exceptions (as we will describe in more detail in the specific case studies), most of these auctions are conducted in a very similar manner. European experiences with transmission auctions are typically classified as either explicit or implicit. Explicit auctions are straightforward; the physical transmission capacity rights are themselves the product that is sold off. Depending on the interconnection, explicit auctions are considered appropriate for long-term allocations – months, quarters, years (though there are also examples of daily explicit auctions for physical transmission capacity). Implicit auctions, on the other hand, are more complex; both capacity and energy are sold as a bundled product. This requires a high level of coordination: a centralized power exchange, homogenized energy markets, and financial instruments for long-term price hedging and bilateral trade between 6 See Article 6 on congestion management in Regulation (EC) 1228/2003. London Economics International LLC 717 Atlantic Avenue, Unit 1A Boston, MA 02111 www.londoneconomics.com 7 contact: Julia Frayer 617-494-8200 julia@londoneconomics.com price-areas. The power exchange in the Nordic countries engages in a type of implicit auction known as market splitting, where it manages the cross-border power flows of the entire fourcountry market area. When there is congestion, the markets split into pre-determined price areas (i.e. zones) and are cleared individually at area prices. The ultimate goal of EU policy is to move towards a combination of short-term implicit auctions and long-term explicit auctions. Figure 1. Congestion management methods in Europe Method Explicit Auctions Market Splitting (Implicit Auction) Involved Interconnections Direction AUSTRIA - CZECH REP. AUSTRIA - HUNGARY BELGIUM - NETHERLANDS CZECH REP. - SLOVAKIA DENMARK EAST - GERMANY DENMARK WEST - GERMANY FRANCE - UNITED KINGDOM GERMANY - CZECH REP. GERMANY - FRANCE GERMANY - NETHERLANDS GERMANY - POLAND GREECE - ITALY HUNGARY - SLOVAKIA NO. IRELAND - REP. of IRELAND NO. IRELAND - SCOTLAND POLAND - CZECH REP. POLAND - SLOVAKIA UNITED KINGDOM - REP. of IRELAND BOTH A => H BOTH BOTH BOTH BOTH BOTH BOTH G => F BOTH BOTH BOTH BOTH BOTH BOTH BOTH P => S BOTH ALL INTERCONNECTIONS WITHIN THE NORDIC REGION (DENMARK EAST & WEST, FINLAND, NORWAY, SWEDEN) ALL Sources: ETSO, SONI and CEPS Figure 2 provides an illustration of the explicit auction clearing price formation, which is perhaps the most applicable example to HQT’s situation. The first step is to determine the available capacity. The various system operators determine the available capacity in accordance with system constraints, applicable laws and regulations. When the total available capacity is determined, the auction office informs the market participants about the total volume of capacity that will be sold off, and the participants in turn submit their bids (volume and prices). The bids are usually submitted in a first-price sealed-bid auction format, in which the bids submitted by the market participants are not revealed to the other participants in order to minimize the possibility of price manipulation. Given that the objective of the auction is to sell the available transmission capacity so as to maximize revenues, the auctioneer will accept the highest priced bids to achieve the sale of all 2,000 MW of available transmission capacity. When the sum of all bids submitted equals or exceeds the total available capacity, the clearing price is equal to the lowest accepted bid price. For example, in the stylized example below, all of the bids at 4.00 €/MW and above are London Economics International LLC 717 Atlantic Avenue, Unit 1A Boston, MA 02111 www.londoneconomics.com 8 contact: Julia Frayer 617-494-8200 julia@londoneconomics.com accepted, and the bid at 2.00 €/MW is rejected. The participant that bid 3.00 €/MW (Auction participant 3 in the example below) receives only part of the capacity requested. The marketclearing price is set to 3.00 €/MW. Figure 2. Illustrative example of price formation process for cross-border explicit auctions Bids offered by buyers of transmission capacity (Demand): Auction participant 1: 200 MW at 10.00 €/MW and 500 MW at 5.00 €/MW Auction participant 2: 300 MW at 8.00 €/MW and 200 MW at 4.00 €/MW Auction participant 3: 500 MW at 5.00 €/MW and 800 MW at 3.00 €/MW Auction participant 4: 500 MW at 2.00 €/MW Auction Clearing Process: (Rank Bids by Bid Price) Requested Awarded Participant Bid price transmission transmission (€/MW) number capacity (MW) capacity (MW) 1 10.00 200 200 2 8.00 300 300 1 5.00 500 500 3 5.00 500 500 2 4.00 200 200 3 3.00 800 300 4 2.00 500 0 Auction Results: Clearing Price: 3.00 €/MW Auction participant 1: Auction participant 2: Auction participant 3: Auction participant 4: Cumulative awarded transmission capacity (MW) 200 500 1,000 1,500 1,700 2,000 2,000 700 MW awarded (all bids accepted) 500 MW awarded (all bids accepted) 800 MW awarded (500 MW at higher bid + 300 MW at lower bid) 0 MW awarded • In Figure 3 below, we show the same information in Figure 2 in a graphical form with supply (available capacity) and demand (bid) curves. The intersection of the supply and demand curves yields the auction clearing price. The figure also illustrates which bids were rejected and which were accepted. In this hypothetical example, the auction ensures the full 2,000 MW of transmission is utilized and results in total revenues of €6,000. In comparison, based on the preferences of participants represented in their bids, a regulated tariff of €8 /MW would have resulted in only 500 MW of transmission capacity being used, leaving 1,500 MW of available transmission capacity completely unused, and an income of only €4,000 to the transmission system owner. London Economics International LLC 717 Atlantic Avenue, Unit 1A Boston, MA 02111 www.londoneconomics.com 9 contact: Julia Frayer 617-494-8200 julia@londoneconomics.com Figure 3. Graphical representation of price formation example € 12 Bids Offered for Available Transmission Capacity Rights Price of Bids (Euro/MW) € 10 Total Available Transmission Capacity Rights Player 1 Player 2 €8 Player 3 Player 4 €6 Auction-clearing price = €3/MW €4 €2 €0 - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Total Quantity of Bids for Transmission Capacity Rights (MW) 2.1 Germany to France: unilateral explicit auction On April 5, 2005, two of the four control areas and the corresponding Transmission System Operators (“TSOs”) in Germany (RWE Transportnetz Strom GmbH and EnBW Transportnetzstrom AG) launched a daily auction for net transfer capacity from Germany to France. Starting on July 1, 2005, auctions of monthly and quarterly transmission capacity rights also began. RWE Transportnetz Strom GmbH is the auction coordinator for both German control areas. There is no secondary market for these rights at this time, because the capacity allocations cannot be transferred to a third party. This is a unilateral auction (as opposed to bilateral), since the allocation of capacities is restricted to the German side of the cross-border interconnections. Congestion of transmission electricity from the French side is managed by a priority list method, in which the French TSO, Gestionnaire du Réseau de Transport d’Électricité (“RTE”),7 allocates capacities based primarily 7 RTE is a quasi-independent entity that is responsible for the French transmission system (operation, maintenance, and development) and interconnections with other countries. RTE is a wholly owned subsidiary of the holding company for the national electricity utility, EDF Group. EDF Group also owns a subsidiary that is responsible for generation. RTE’s activities are overseen by the CRE (Energy Regulation Commission). The structure of RTE is thus similar to the structure of HQT. London Economics International LLC 717 Atlantic Avenue, Unit 1A Boston, MA 02111 www.londoneconomics.com 10 contact: Julia Frayer 617-494-8200 julia@londoneconomics.com on the date and time of the allocation request. Until recently, no congestion had been experienced for exports from Germany to France, but a sudden spike in congestion occurrences at the beginning of 2005 necessitated the development of an explicit auction mechanism. It is generally agreed, however, that unilateral explicit auctions are not ideal solutions for crossborder allocations since the lack of coordination may lead to unbalanced exchanges. Figure 4. Breakdown of auction results by term for the Germany to France interconnection Auction Term Quarterly Quarterly Time Deadline for bids 6/13/2005 9/13/2005 Publication of the results 6/16/2005 9/14/2005 Available Capacity (MW) 1,800 1,800 Requested Capacity (MW) 11,341 7,414 Obtained Capacity (MW) 1,800 1,800 3rd Quarter 2005 4th Quarter 2005 Monthly Monthly Monthly Monthly July-05 August-05 September-05 October-05 6/20/2005 7/18/2005 8/18/2005 9/19/2005 6/23/2005 7/20/2005 8/19/2005 9/20/2005 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 9,290 6,465 7,415 5,580 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,799 82.44 86.00 75.84 74.50 Daily 10/13/2005 10/12/2005 8:30 10/12/2005 10:00 4,286 12,692 4,285 0.06 Price (€/MW) 218.40 1,175.00 Note: for daily auction, the capacities and price are an average of the hourly figures (prices are thus denominated as €/MWh) In Figure 4 above, we observe that the requested capacity far exceeds the available capacity in all periods, which suggests that there has been strong demand for this Germany-France transmission capacity. With regard to term, the auction coordinator offered the same amount of capacity for the quarterly and monthly markets (1,800 MW) and more than double that amount in the daily auction (4,286 MW). This is consistent with the EU’s goals to facilitate trade, since arbitrage opportunities which would use the daily auction’s transmission rights products are much more short-term in nature. Furthermore, we can observe that the auction clearing price decreases with respect to the length of the auction term. This, too, is consistent with typical system dynamics, since the value of even physical transmission rights hinge on expectations of congestion and arbitrage opportunities between markets. Short-term auctions pose less uncertainty to bidders about the timing and frequency of congestion (and therefore the value of the transmission rights), and so it is natural that the willingness to pay of bidders rises. Prices for long-term transmission rights also include expectations about congestion, but those are averaged out over longer periods and they are muted given the longer tenure of the annual transmission right. All the clearing prices are positive, which means that constraints are common across this interconnection. For example, for the monthly contracts, the price ranges from 74.50 €/MW to 86.00 €/MW (which at current exchange rates is $106.77/MW to $123.25/MW in Canadian dollar terms). 2.2 Czech Republic – Poland – Germany: multilateral explicit auctions On November 24, 2004 CEPS, the Transmission System Operator of the Czech Republic acting as the Auction Coordinator of three cross-border control areas – Czech Republic (CEPS), Poland (PSE-O), and Germany (VE-T) – held its first explicit auction of annual physical transmission capacity rights. CEPS later incorporated a monthly auction on December 12, 2004 and a daily auction on April 12, 2005. Bids for the yearly and monthly auctions are conducted through the mail (sealed-bid) or by fax for now, whereas the daily auction is held through an online portal (http://www.e-trace.biz) and a unique price is set for each hour of the day. Long-term online auctions are expected to be put into place in 2006. The online portal is set up to allow the London Economics International LLC 717 Atlantic Avenue, Unit 1A Boston, MA 02111 www.londoneconomics.com 11 contact: Julia Frayer 617-494-8200 julia@londoneconomics.com market participants to transfer their yearly or monthly capacity allocations to the daily auction market. The table below provides a snapshot of the results of the October 9, 2005 auction for the Czech Republic to German intertie. The quantity-weighted average auction price for those hours with positive prices was equal to 4.8 €/MWh (which is approximately $6.90/MWh at current exchange rates). It is interesting to note that auction prices cleared at zero during off-peak hours when demand for capacity (i.e., total requested”) was equal to or less than what was made available (i.e., proxied by “total allocated”). A zero auction-clearing price under such supply-demand situations is an explicit element of this auction’s market design (see Appendix A). It is equally feasible to set a higher minimum auction clearing price (i.e., reservation price). However the latter may result in an inefficient allocation (underutilization) of available transmission capacity. Figure 5. Daily auction results for October 9, 2005 along the Czech Republic-Germany intertie Source TSO Target TSO Hour 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 CEPS (Czech Republic) to VE-T (Germany) Total Requested Total Allocated [MW] [MW] 0 0 0 10 10 10 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 20 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 Auction Price [Cdn$/MW] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.85 7.07 12.00 10.33 6.15 3.88 3.75 3.41 4.03 8.01 7.42 10.71 9.97 0 0 Source: http://market.e-trace.biz/auction_result_summary.asp London Economics International LLC 717 Atlantic Avenue, Unit 1A Boston, MA 02111 www.londoneconomics.com 12 contact: Julia Frayer 617-494-8200 julia@londoneconomics.com Figure 6 below provides a summary of the yearly and monthly auction results up to the present for all paths. For comparative purposes, the annual auction price for 2005 ranged from 8,935.2 €/MW (or $12,805.5/MW in Canadian terms) to over 101,186.6 €/MW (or $145,015.6/MW). Prices across six paths have differed substantially as the underlying market-value differs based on then prevailing market conditions on either side of the intertie. As expected, the monthly auction clearing prices are generally consistent with the yearly auction clearing price for a given interconnection path. The monthly clearing prices fluctuate significantly from one auction period to another based on market conditions, thereby demonstrating the value of a centralized auction for optimizing power flows and reflecting that in the form of revenues for capacity across interconnections. Figure 6. Results of yearly and month multilateral explicit auctions Reservation Period Year 2005 January 2005 February 2005 March 2005 April 2005 May 2005 June 2005 July 2005 August 2005 September 2005 October 2005 November 2005 Capacity & Price Poland → Czech Rep Czech Rep → Poland Commercial Profile & Direction Germany → Czech Rep → Czech Rep Germany Germany → Poland Poland → Germany Total Promise of Capacity (MW) Auction Price (€/MW) 0 101,186.63 80 8,935.20 282 0.00 320 53,260.80 0 8,935.20 480 101,186.63 Total Promise of Capacity (MW) Auction Price (€/MW) Total Promise of Capacity (MW) Auction Price (€/MW) Total Promise of Capacity (MW) Auction Price (€/MW) Total Promise of Capacity (MW) Auction Price (€/MW) Total Promise of Capacity (MW) Auction Price (€/MW) Total Promise of Capacity (MW) Auction Price (€/MW) Total Promise of Capacity (MW) Auction Price (€/MW) Total Promise of Capacity (MW) Auction Price (€/MW) Total Promise of Capacity (MW) Auction Price (€/MW) Total Promise of Capacity (MW) Auction Price (€/MW) Total Promise of Capacity (MW) Auction Price (€/MW) 149 3,013.20 150 1,105.00 99 1,360.80 136 2,016.08 115 3,035.53 329 3,133.99 0 13,219.92 0 21,336.00 109 5,986.30 20 8,589.90 200 2,936.30 150 60.00 140 273.00 160 601.01 50 720.00 60 446.00 65 346.00 9 1,310.00 20 1,795.00 110 265.00 103 103.20 69 77.00 209 0.01 194 0.02 95 0.00 205 0.00 205 0.00 175 0.00 215 0.00 205 0.00 175 0.00 100 0.00 130 0.00 178 9,874.03 136 7,392.00 55 6,401.10 180 6,371.24 25 10,800.00 0 11,501.30 280 4,791.36 327 5,804.00 0 15,712.81 0 14,020.00 0 18,922.00 20 60.00 0 273.00 10 601.01 0 720.00 0 446.00 0 346.00 0 1,310.00 0 1,795.00 0 265.00 0 103.20 0 77.00 120 9,874.03 155 7,392.00 95 6,401.10 205 6,371.24 123 10,800.00 249 11,501.30 20 13,219.92 120 21,336.00 195 15,712.81 350 14,020.00 149 18,922.00 Source: e-trace Although multilateral explicit auctions are difficult to coordinate, they have several benefits. The creation of common transmission capacity allocation rules in the region facilitates the maximization of available transmission capacity for the entire region. If properly coordinated, efficient signals would be sent to market players for the operation and value of the network. This in turn would lead to enhanced trading and proper investment signals for transmission infrastructure enhancement to eliminate bottlenecks and improve reliability. In the near future, it is expected that several other control areas will join the CEPS multilateral auction: E.ON (Germany), APG (Austria), MAVIR (Hungary), and SEPS (Slovakia). London Economics International LLC 717 Atlantic Avenue, Unit 1A Boston, MA 02111 www.londoneconomics.com 13 contact: Julia Frayer 617-494-8200 julia@londoneconomics.com 3 North American case studies Many of Quebec’s neighboring jurisdictions have employed auctions for transmission capacity. Because transmission capacity auctions have been prevalent in jurisdictions with deregulated, centralized power exchanges, they have naturally been financial, with settlement of the contract against spot energy prices. Given the current structure of the Quebec market, an FTR auction is not plausible in the short-term. A physical transmission capacity auction is more consistent with the current industry framework in Quebec. Nonetheless, the experiences of other North American jurisdictions still contain useful insights and considerations for HQT even if it were to embark on designing an auction of physical capacity rights. The objectives of FTR auctions in North American jurisdictions are similar to those in Europe with respect to physical transmission capacity: auctions are implemented to ensure efficient and market-compatible allocation of scarce transmission capacity and to promote efficient use of the infrastructure and send proper signals for new investment. Indeed, many of the key parameters in these FTR auctions are transferable to an auction of physical transmission capacity. For example, all the auctions have had to establish how to proceed with the initial determination of available capacity and feasibility testing, agree on allocation of pre-existing rights, decide which transmission paths to put up for auction (e.g., Ontario has auctioned FTRs for only its congested interconnects), and prepare auction rules and process (such as qualification of bidders, etc.). These are important lessons for any entity considering implementing an auction of physical or financial transmission rights. In order to provide a more detailed perspective of these issues, we provide an overview of the FTR market in New York, which is known as the Transmission Congestion Contract (“TCC”) market. Where relevant, we refer to similarities between NY and other FTR markets in North America. Appendix C to this paper contains a summary table comparing the key characteristics of FTR markets across the U.S. and in Ontario, Canada. New York Case Study New York ISO began its LMP (“Locational Marginal Pricing”)-based energy market in November 1999; at the same time, it also implemented point-to-point financial transmission rights that are called Transmission Congestion Contracts (“TCCs”). New York ISO was in fact the first Independent System Operator (“ISO”) to introduce an annual auction for financial transmission rights. The technical definition of a TCC is as follows: “A TCC represents the right to collect, or the obligation to pay, the Day-Ahead Congestion Rents associated with one (1) megawatt (MW) of transmission between a specified Point of Injection (“POI”) and specified Point of Withdrawal (“POW”).”8 8 See http://www.nyiso.com/public/webdocs/products/tcc/general_info/ London Economics International LLC 717 Atlantic Avenue, Unit 1A Boston, MA 02111 www.londoneconomics.com 14 contact: Julia Frayer 617-494-8200 julia@londoneconomics.com Initial Allocation of transmission rights in New York Before the first TCC auction took place in September 1999, the NYISO had to transition existing transmission rights and contracts into the TCC system. The holders of existing transmission rights (based on then existing contracts and agreements) were given an opportunity either to retain grandfathered rights or to convert them into Grandfathered TCCs which remain active until the time the original right would have expired. In addition, transmission owners that had obligations to serve load were allocated certain load-related transmission rights, a portion of which could be converted into six-month TCCs and the remainder would be sold as TCCs by the NYISO but treated as Auction Revenue Rights, entitling the transmission owner to the revenues resulting from the sale of the corresponding TCCs in the bi-annual auctions. This initial allocation of grandfathered rights was implemented in a different manner in several neighboring markets. In both the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (“PJM”) and New England markets, the allocation of grandfathered rights recurs at least annually based on updated statistics on load being served, etc. • In PJM, Auction Revenue Rights (“ARRs”) are allocated annually to (1) load serving entities up to their total annual load and to (2) customers with firm point-to-point service up to the quantity specified in the transmission reservation and for the period of the reservation. ARRs are nominated by eligible transmission customers and their award is subject to a simultaneous feasibility test. • In New England, transmission upgrades are emphasized in the allocation process of ARRs. In each month, ARRs are allocated first to the entities that invest in transmission upgrades (Qualified Upgrade Awards, or “QUAs”) and thus increase transfer capability on the New England transmission system. By increasing transfer capability, it is possible for the ISO to sell additional FTRs in the auction. The remaining ARRs in New England are allocated to congestionpaying load-serving entities (“LSEs”), based on their load ratio share. This residual assignment to LSEs is adjusted so that all the ARRs are simultaneously feasible given the other rights, such as excepted transactions9 and Quality Upgrade Awards.10 Any ARRs assigned that are negative in the New England FTR auctions are eliminated. 9 Excepted Transactions (grandfathered contracts) are given the option to receive ARRs from the generator to the specified load location. The Excepted Transactions consist primarily of transmission agreements for certain point-to-point wheeling transactions across or out of the network and are assigned to two types of entities: 1) entities serving load where energy is delivered or 2) entities dealing with an external transaction. In addition, there is a separate class of grandfathered contracts within Northeastern Massachusetts (“NEMA contracts”) that are dealt with like the Excepted Transactions in the ARR allocation process. 10 The FTR bids and revenues are first determined with the upgrade and then without each upgrade. Then ISO New England compares the difference in revenues between the two, which can be viewed as the value the upgrade brings to the system. The ARR is then awarded to those entities that provided the upgrade. Qualified Upgrade payments are made as long as the entity is paying for the upgrade, or for the life of the London Economics International LLC 717 Atlantic Avenue, Unit 1A Boston, MA 02111 www.londoneconomics.com 15 contact: Julia Frayer 617-494-8200 julia@londoneconomics.com In summary, these jurisdictions’ experience with allocation processes has important lessons for HQT who would also have to undergo similar rationalization and assignment of existing transmission rights and possibly rights associated with upgrades, if it were to choose to auction off its transmission system capacity. Transmission Congestion Contracts (“TCC”) Auctions in New York The New York ISO (“NYISO”) holds a number of auctions each year to facilitate the liquidity of the TCC market with the revenues remitted to the owners of the transmission assets11 (and credited against the transmission service charge of the transmission owner). Currently, there are two types of NYISO-administered auctions: bi-annual auctions and monthly “Reconfiguration” auctions. In addition to the NYISO-administered auctions, TCCs may also be obtained directly from existing TCC holders through the secondary market. In the bi-annual transmission rights auction, the NY system operator (the NYISO) sells TCCs associated with available point-to-point physical transmission capacity (including TCCs based on grandfathered rights) through a two stage, multi-round auction process: during the first stage, a certain percentage of all the TCCs for sale are released in each of the four rounds. the second stage allows TCC holders to resell rights they purchased through the first stage. Currently the term of the auctioned TCCs is determined by the NYISO, and is either 6 months or one-year. At the discretion of the NYISO, multi-year TCCs may be offered, with the longest term currently being five years.12 The auction clearing price for the TCCs is determined by the lowest winning bid for a particular TCC point-to-point pair in a specific round. Settlement of the TCCs takes place against the NYISO administered Day-Ahead energy market and the Locational-based Marginal Prices (“LBMPs”) associated with the specified POI and POW of the TCC.13 As discussed above, the New York ISO also holds monthly Reconfiguration Auctions in which TCC holders can offer to sell their TCCs for the subsequent month. As with the TCCs sold in the bi-annual auctions, settlement continues to takes place against LBMPs in the Day-Ahead energy market. asset, whichever is shorter. To date, less than 2% percent of the total FTR revenues have been assigned to QUAs in New England. 11 Transmission owners are the initial holders of the TCCs in the first stage of the bi-annual TCC auction. In the second stage of the bi-annual auction and in the monthly Reconfiguration auctions, other entities may be holders of TCCs for sale, and thus payments from these auctions go to the existing holder of the TCC. 12 The NYISO experimented with two-year and five-year TCCs in the fall 2000 auction. 13 Appendix B to this paper has a conceptual example of the settlement process for generic FTRs. London Economics International LLC 717 Atlantic Avenue, Unit 1A Boston, MA 02111 www.londoneconomics.com 16 contact: Julia Frayer 617-494-8200 julia@londoneconomics.com Summary results of the spring 2005 auction are displayed in the figure below. On average across all TCCs sold in this auction, the market-clearing price ranged from US$4.2/kW to US$5.1/kW for 6-month terms and US$5/kW to US$7.4/kW for one–year terms, which at current exchange rates is equivalent to $5.0/kW to $6.0/kW (six-month term) and $5.9/kW to $8.8/kW (one-year term) in Canadian dollars. It is important to note that this is a summary of all point-to-point TCCs sold during the auction. Certain point-to-point paths garnered substantially higher market-clearing prices because of their market value (which was based on the predicted level of congestion rents over the duration of the TCC). For example, in the State of the Market report for 2004, the independent market advisor to the NYISO notes that Hudson Valley to NYC Zone path enjoyed an average TCC clearing-price of US$9.6/MWh over the months of May to October 2004, which at current exchange rates is equivalent to Cdn$11.4/MWh.14 Figure 7. Market-clearing prices from recent long-term TCC auctions (spring 2005), $/MW/ 6month or $/MW/1-year with-congestion flows 6 month 1 year ($/MW/6-mo) ($/MW/1-yr) Average market-clearing price Minimum market-clearing price Maximum market-clearing price Volume of contacts traded $ $ $ 4,214.9 $ 0.1 $ 46,456.0 $ 874 7,440.1 21.0 88,193.7 120 Counter-congestion flows 6 month 1 year ($/MW/6-mo) ($/MW/1-yr) $ $ $ 5,147.4 $ 8.7 $ 44,212.2 $ 404 5,002.5 23.0 89,089.2 271 Note: Prices quoted in US dollars in figure above. TCCs that cleared the auction at a price of zero have been excluded As hedging instruments for market participants, TCCs (and FTRs in other jurisdictions) have been deemed to be efficient based on market experience to date. Indeed, it was the success of the FTR markets that had served as a catalyst to the EU’s adoption of Regulation 1228/2003, requiring competitive auctions of cross-border transmission capacity. Economists generally believe that longer term FTRs, when made available (and assuming sensible auction design), could theoretically garner sufficient sales revenues to finance and carry the costs of transmission investment. On that basis, longer term auctions of transmission capacity may be able to replace the regulated access charges. 14 See 2004 State of the Market Report, Independent Market Advisor to the New York ISO. July 2005. London Economics International LLC 717 Atlantic Avenue, Unit 1A Boston, MA 02111 www.londoneconomics.com 17 contact: Julia Frayer 617-494-8200 julia@londoneconomics.com 4 Concluding remarks This paper demonstrates that in many jurisdictions, the value of transmission (and therefore its “market price”) can be determined through a public auction rather than set by regulation. The auction can be either for the physical transmission capacity itself, as exemplified by European jurisdictions pursuing auctions of cross-border intertie capacity, or for a financial instrument derived off the physical transmission capacity, a Financial Transmission Right. Auctions of Financial Transmission Rights have also been implemented widely, particularly across North America but also in other deregulated power markets worldwide. In jurisdictions without a centralized wholesale power market with locational price signals, such as Quebec, the auction of physical capacity rights would be the best fit. Further, an auction of physical capacity rights would broadly capture the same benefits of FTR auctions: it would allow for efficient and competitive use of the transmission network based on market terms rather than regulation. Provided sufficient customers participate in the auction and that the auction rules are designed to meet the objectives of the auction while taking into account the underlying market conditions, the auction process will optimize the use of the transmission system, efficiently allocate transmission capacity to those who value it most and, incidentally in so doing, maximize the revenue potential of the transmission assets for its owner. Auction designs are both flexible and robust. For example, the auction process can be customized to accommodate the auction of some of the capacity or all of the capacity. Furthermore, setting reservation prices in the auction provides certainty that the auction will not clear at an unacceptably low price. The examples from Europe show that transmission capacity can be successfully auctioned in similar environments to that found in Quebec. The success of the auction is not dependent on the existence of a competitive wholesale electricity market, a centralized power exchange or locational energy pricing systems. We therefore believe that it is ultimately feasible to auction some, if not all, of HQT’s transmission capacity. Given the Régie’s previously stated desire for HQT to optimize the use of its transmission system to the benefit of native load, we would strongly recommend that the Régie order HQT to investigate the use of auctions to sell its point-to-point transmission capacity. London Economics International LLC 717 Atlantic Avenue, Unit 1A Boston, MA 02111 www.londoneconomics.com 18 contact: Julia Frayer 617-494-8200 julia@londoneconomics.com 5 Appendix A: Sample guide to an auction of physical transmission capacity Summary of Auction Rules coordinated by CEPS (TSO for the Czech Republic)15 Scope of the Auction Rules The Auction Rules describe the requirements of the participants and the auction coordinator, the auction algorithm, and the conditions for the use of capacity. The auction results are essentially a “promise of capacity” (or physical capacity rights) to be delivered over a certain interconnection at an agreed upon price. The three Transmission System Operators (CEPS (Czech Republic), PSE-O (Poland), VE-T (Germany)) have committed themselves to accept the result of the common auctions – i.e. reserve the physical transmission capacities and carry out the transmission services. Grid access within the control area of each Transmission System Operator, though, is not covered or granted by the scope of the Auction Rules. The auction coordinator assumes the liability of default on payments. However, in accordance with risk management procedures, the auction participants must possess a certain minimum credit rating and failure to pay would put their credit ratings at jeopardy. The minimum credit rating would allow for a € 5 million credit limit for a given auction participant. Auction schedule The auction coordinator organizes yearly, monthly, and daily auctions. The auction reservation period for the yearly product is January 1, 2005 to December 31, 2005; the monthly product is the first day to the last day of a calendar month in 2005; and the daily product lasts for an individual hour throughout 24 hours of a calendar day in 2005 (with one hour adjustments during daylight saving time change days). The publication of available capacity for the auction products will occur on the website (www.e-trace.biz) according to the schedule below. Yearly and monthly bids will be delivered by fax or mail (sealed-bid), and the daily bids will be transacted on-line through their web-based auction system. Auction results are published and invoiced per the schedule below. Figure 8. CEPS auction schedule of events for all products in 2005 15 Auction Product Publication of available capacity Deadline for bids Publication of results Monthly invoice issue date Monthly payment due date Yearly 11/18/2004 11/24/2004 12/1/2004 generally, first day of month three weeks after invoice issue date Monthly within the first week of previous month one week after publication of available capacity two days after deadline for bids one day after publication of results two weeks after invoice issue date Daily 9 a.m. on the day of auction within first week of following month three weeks after invoice issue date 9:45 a.m. on the day 10 a.m. on the day of of the auction the auction For a full version of the auction rules, see http://www.e-trace.biz London Economics International LLC 717 Atlantic Avenue, Unit 1A Boston, MA 02111 www.londoneconomics.com 19 contact: Julia Frayer 617-494-8200 julia@londoneconomics.com Auction algorithm There are three interconnections managed by the auction coordinator – PSE-O ↔ VE-T (PolandGermany), PSE-O ↔ CEPS (Poland-Czech Republic), and VE-T ↔ CEPS (Germany–Czech Republic); with power flowing in both directions. The auction coordinator arranges all received bids in descending order according to the individual bid price (merit order), independent of interconnection and direction of the individual bid. The auction coordinator will then check the feasibility of the merit order based on the technical constraints in the transmission systems. If the considered bid – together with already accepted bids – does not exceed the limits of the technical constraints, the auction coordinator will accept the bid and assign the requested capacity to the auction participant. The auction price is set at zero in the case where no limits are exceeded for a certain interconnection and direction. There is no minimum reservation price for the auction. If the considered bid – together with already accepted bids – exceeds the limit on any technical constraint, the auction coordinator will execute the following actions depending on the auction product. In the yearly and monthly auctions, the bid is rejected and the remaining capacity is kept free for the next auction (monthly or daily, respectively). The auction price for either the yearly or monthly product is set at the last accepted bid price. In the daily auction, bids on the margin are accepted in the order of their individual time stamp (first-come first-serve). This marginal bid will be assigned a capacity amount up to the technical limit of the interconnection and direction. The auction price for the daily product is set at the marginal bid price. London Economics International LLC 717 Atlantic Avenue, Unit 1A Boston, MA 02111 www.londoneconomics.com 20 contact: Julia Frayer 617-494-8200 julia@londoneconomics.com 6 Appendix B: Further description of Financial Transmission Rights When there is no congestion, electricity flows freely along the specified path, no price differentials appear and thus there is no substantial value to the transmission right. When congestion occurs, price differentials occur along the specified transmission path and thus ownership of an FTR becomes valuable. In an event of congestion, the owner of the FTR then receives a (settlement) payment that is the difference in electricity prices between the start (injection point or origination) and end (withdrawal point or destination) of the specified transmission route. Buyers of FTRs are thus paying a fixed payment at the auction in return for all of the future congestion rents from a specific path or route over a specific timeframe. Figure 9. Stylized example of an FTR FTR Acquisition Process Region A PeA = $10/MWh 1 MW Value Realization Process Region B Region A PeB = $12/MWh PRTA = $10/MWh Player acquires annual FTR for 1 MW, based on expectation that flows from Region A to B will be congested 10% of the time with an average price difference of $2/MWh Player pays upfront fee for FTR ($1,752) Region B PRTB = $13/MWh Markets results in a real time congestion rate of 15% along this path and over the year and an average realized price difference of $3/MWh Expected value of FTR = acquisition price: =(10%*8760)*($12/MWh - $10/MWh)*1 MW = $1,752 Player acquires FTR 1 MW Realized value of FTR: =(11%*8760)*($13/MWh - $10/MWh)*1 MW = $3,942 Player profits from FTR ISO (mediator) Player receives FTR rents of $3,942 (in the form of a FTR credit) ISO (mediator) The figure above illustrates a stylized example of an FTR acquisition process. Imagine the buyer to be a customer that is located in Region B but has a contract for delivery of energy to Region A and must thus arrange for delivery of the contracted energy to his region, Region B. When congestion occurs, this customer risks having his transaction cut by the system operator. Since power moves from low cost areas to higher cost areas (absent system stability requirements), congestion along a line necessitates the dispatch of higher priced power to serve the load that was originally supposed to be supplied by the transaction that was cut. When this occurs, the customer in our example has to buy higher priced power in Region B to replace the contracted power he intended to transport over from Region A. By holding an FTR, the customer is assured of receiving the additional rents from congestion, since the ISO forwards these rents to the FTR holder in the form of an FTR credit or congestion payment, and is thus hedged against the financial risk of having to replace the cheaper power London Economics International LLC 717 Atlantic Avenue, Unit 1A Boston, MA 02111 www.londoneconomics.com 21 contact: Julia Frayer 617-494-8200 julia@londoneconomics.com he had contracted for in Region A with spot market purchases in Region B. If the customer is facing a schedule which has cut his transaction, these FTR revenues will compensate for the increased cost of meeting his needs through spot market purchases. In the example below, the customer would have even realized a profit of $2,190 on the instrument because congestion was higher than what was expected and resulted in larger price differences, as well. Other entities may also find FTRs useful, for example, a generator or a marketer that has obligations or is interested in trading between different markets. London Economics International LLC 717 Atlantic Avenue, Unit 1A Boston, MA 02111 www.londoneconomics.com 22 contact: Julia Frayer 617-494-8200 julia@londoneconomics.com ***CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT FOR CLIENT REVIEW*** 7 Appendix C: Key characteristics of FTR markets across North America Name Inception Type of auction New York ISO PJM ISO transmission congestion contracts financial transmission rights (TCCs) September 1, 1999 April 1, 1998 purely financial contracts; point-to- purely financial contracts; point obligation point-to-point obligation ISO New England financial transmission rights March 1, 2003 purely financial contracts; point-to-point obligation Ontario (IESO) transmisison tight (TRs) California ISO firm transmission rights May 1, 2002 February 1, 2000 purely financial contracts; both a physical and a external point-to-point paths financial contract; flowgate rights (FGRs), but will switch to PTP obligation Midwest ISO financial transmission rights May 1, 2005 purely financial contracts; point-topoint obligation all internal transmission paths all internal transmission paths annual and monthly (onand off-peak) all external point-to-point paths monthly and annual all internal all internal transmission paths transmission paths annual and monthly monthly and annual (on- and off-peak) 2004 on-peak average: CT: $4.6/MWh WCMA: $-0.1/MWh NEMA: $1.4/MWh VT: $0.5/MWh RI: $-0.2/MWh SEMA: $-0.4/MWh NH: $-0.7/MWh ME: $-2.2/MWh 2004 off-peak average: CT: $0.8/MWh WCMA: $0.0/MWh NEMA: $0.1/MWh VT: $0.4/MWh RI: $-0.1/MWh SEMA: $-0.2/MWh NH: $-0.2/MWh ME: $-0.6/MWh Oct 04 to Sep 05 monthly 2004 average annual auction average - import into auction results: Ontario: $0.73/MWh New York: $0.20/MWh Michigan: $1.66/MWh Minnesota: $1.29/MWh Manitoba: $0.76/MWh Quebec: $0.01/MWh Oct 04 to Sep 05 monthly auction average - export from Ontario: New York: $0.55/MWh Michigan: $0.03/MWh Minnesota: $0.07/MWh Manitoba: $0.04/MWh Quebec: $0.09/MWh all internal transmission paths Typical terms of 6 months, one-year, multi-year (up annual and monthly (onto five years), monthly and off-peak, or all 24 transmission rights reconfiguration auctions hours) Average auction clearing Sample range of recent average Spring 2005 auction prices (2004-2005 planning auction clearing prices results: 6-month term: $1.13-$1.38/MWh period): (translated into Buy Bids: Canadian $/MWh using 1-year term: $0.68-$1.00/MWh ComEd - $0.07/MWh, current exchange rate) MAAC - $0.71/ MWh Sell Bids: ComEd - $0.39/MWh, MAAC - $0.26/MWh Coverage of auction London Economics International LLC 717 Atlantic Avenue, Unit 1A Boston, MA 02111 www.londoneconomics.com 23 all internal transmission paths annual Apr 05 to Oct 05 average monthly auction results: between $0.10/MWh and $0.51/MWh Texas (ERCOT) transmission congestion rights (TCRs) February 15, 2002 purely financial contracts; flowgate rights (FGRs) 2004 annual auction results: West to North: $0.4/MWh South to North: $2.6/MWh South to Houston: $2.0/MWh Northeast to North: $0.6/MWh North to Houston: $0.6/MWh contact: Julia Frayer 617-494-8200 julia@londoneconomics.com