U.S. Economic Outlook
Mark Vitner, Managing Director & Senior Economist
September 18, 2015
After a Slow Start, U.S. Growth Should Strengthen During the Second Half of the Year
 U.S growth remains solid but unspectacular. Hiring is
Overall Outlook
improving but wage growth is lacking and there are still
huge pockets of underemployment.
 The Fed is poised to raise interest rates. Policy will
Monetary Policy
remain expansionary, however. We expect the Fed to
move cautiously amid slower global economic growth.
 Slowing growth in China is pulling down commodity
Inflation
prices and will likely restrain consumer prices. Lower
inflation will hold down long-term interest rates.
 The drag from government spending cuts is lessoning in
Fiscal Policy
Global
Economy
Economic Outlook
the US and major decisions need to be made on the
highway bill, corporate tax rates and federal budget.
 Slower growth in China is weighing on growth in other
emerging economies, pushing up the value of the dollar
and presenting a threat to exports and earnings.
2
Overall Growth
Economic Growth
Revisions to previously published data show that economic growth was stronger during the
first half of the year. International trade and inventories account for much of the recent
volatility in real GDP growth. Private final domestic demand is growing more solidly.
Real GDP Forecast
Real Private Final Sales
U.S. Real GDP
Real Private Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers
Bars = CAGR
Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change
Bars = CAGR
10%
10%
8%
8%
6%
Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change
8%
GDP - CAGR: Q2 @ 3.7%
8%
GDP - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q2 @ 2.7%
6%
6%
Forecast
6%
4%
4%
4%
2%
2%
2%
2%
0%
0%
0%
0%
-2%
-2%
-2%
-2%
-4%
-4%
-4%
-4%
-6%
-6%
-6%
-6%
-8%
-8%
-8%
-8%
-10%
-10%
-12%
2000
Forecast
4%
-10%
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
4
Real Priv Fin Sales to Dom. Purch. - CAGR: Q2 @ 3.3%
Real Priv Fin Sales to Dom. Purch. - Yr/Yr Pct Chg: Q2 @ 3.4%
-10%
-12%
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Employment Situation
Nonfarm employment growth has picked up over the past year and the unemployment rate has
fallen sharply. Wages are only rising modestly, however, as productivity growth remains
exceptionally weak. Broader measures of wages only show moderately stronger wage gains.
Nonfarm Employment
Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Employment Change
Unemployment and Wage Rates
Change in Employment, In Thousands
600
600
400
400
200
200
Wages for Production & Nonsupervisory Workers, SA
12%
12%
10%
0
0
-200
-200
-400
-400
-600
-600
-800
-800
10%
8%
8%
6%
6%
4%
4%
2%
2%
Unemployment Rate: Aug @ 5.1%
Hourly Earnings - Yr/Yr % Change: Aug @ 1.9%
Monthly Change: Aug @ 173K
-1,000
2007
-1,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0%
2015
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
0%
65
5
70
75
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
15
Global Economic Conditions
International Economic Forecast
Real Global GDP Growth
Year-over-Year Percent Change, PPP Weights
7.5%
7.5%
6.0%
6.0%
Period Average
The International Monetary
Fund has reduced their estimate
of global GDP growth several
times over the past year.
4.5%
4.5%
3.0%
3.0%
1.5%
1.5%
0.0%
0.0%
-1.5%
-1.5%
1980
1985
1990
1995
Source: IHS Global Insight and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
7
2000
2005
2010
2015
Global Industrial Production
Global Economic Indicators
Year-over-Year Percent Change
Slower global economic growth
is clearly weighing on the U.S.
15%
15%
10%
10%
5%
5%
0%
0%
-5%
-5%
-10%
-10%
Global Industrial Production: Q2 @ 2.0%
U.S. GDP: Q2 @ 2.7%
-15%
-15%
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
Source: IHS Global Insight and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
8
06
08
10
12
14
China Real GDP
Chinese Real GDP Forecast
Year-over-Year Percent Change
15%
Chinese economic growth has
likely slowed more than the
official data suggest.
14%
14%
13%
13%
12%
12%
11%
11%
10%
Forecast
10%
9%
9%
8%
8%
7%
7%
6%
6%
5%
4%
2000
5%
Year-over-Year Percent Change: Q2 @ 7.0%
4%
2002
2004
2006
2008
Source: Bloomberg LP and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
15%
9
2010
2012
2014
2016
Contributions to Chinese Growth
Contributions to Chinese Real GDP Growth
Chinese authorities hope to
rebalance growth toward more
consumer spending.
16%
16%
12%
12%
8%
8%
4%
4%
0%
0%
-4%
-4%
Net Exports: 2014 @ 0.1%
Gross Capital Investment: 2014 @ 3.6%
Final Consumption Expenditures: 2014 @ 3.7%
GDP Growth: 2014 @ 7.4%
-8%
-8%
-12%
-12%
00
01
02
03
04
05
Source: CEIC and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
10
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Debt Outstanding
U.S. vs. China Debt Outstanding by Sector
Percent of GDP
250%
250%
Central Government
Non-Financial Corporate
Household
200%
Slower economic growth will
make it tougher for Chinese to
service their debt. Much of this
borrowing has been done at
state-owned firms.
150%
150%
100%
100%
50%
50%
0%
0%
08
09
10
11
12
United States
Source: CEIC, BIS and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
200%
11
13
08
09
10
11
China
12
13
China Stock Market
Chinese Stock Market
Index, January 4, 2013 = 100
380
380
Shanghai Composite: August 31 @ 140.8
340
The recent Chinese stock market
crash has raised doubts and
fanned fears about the
implications of a more
significant slowdown or
recession in China.
Shenzen Composite: August 31 @ 204.0
300
300
260
260
220
220
180
180
140
140
100
100
60
Jan-13
60
Jul-13
Jan-14
Source: Bloomberg LP and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
340
12
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
ISM
The global economic slowdown is weighing on U.S. manufacturing. Export orders, overall
manufacturing orders and production have all weakened in recent months while inventories
have increased. GDP growth will likely remain modest and surprise us to the downside.
ISM Export Orders
ISM vs. GDP
ISM Export Orders Index
ISM Manufacturing Index & Real GDP
Diffusion Index
Index, 3-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Year Percent Change
65
65
65
6%
60
60
60
4%
55
55
55
2%
50
0%
50
50
45
-2%
40
-4%
35
-6%
45
45
40
40
35
ISM Export Orders Index: Aug @ 46.5
35
30
30
25
Real GDP, Year-over-Year Percent Change: Jun @ 2.6% (Right Axis)
12-Month Moving Average: Aug @ 50.3
30
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
-10%
92
14
Source: Institute for Supply Management, U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
-8%
ISM Manufacturing Index: Aug @ 52.4 (Left Axis)
13
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
Inflation and Interest Rates
Energy
Oil prices collapsed in late 2014 and early 2015. The number of active oil rigs has subsequently
fallen sharply. While there are some tentative signs that the rig count has bottomed, another
slide in energy prices and another downturn in the rig count cannot be ruled out.
WTI
Production & Employment
Baker-Hughes Rig Count vs. Oil Prices
Oil Production vs. Employment
Oil Rotary Rigs; USD per Barrel
1,800
Oil Rig Count: Aug-28 @ 675 (Left Axis)
WTI: Aug-28 @ $40.8 (Right Axis)
1,600
Thousands of Jobs, Million of Barrels per Day
700
$180
Oil Production: Aug @ 9.2M (Right Axis)
$160
1,400
$140
1,200
$120
1,000
$100
800
$80
600
$60
400
$40
200
$20
0
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
600
8
500
6
400
4
300
2
200
$0
05
10
Oil & Gas Employment: Aug @ 619K (Left Axis)
0
05
15
06
07
08
Source: IHS Global Insight, Baker-Hughes, U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
15
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
Inflation
Global disinflation has led more aggressive easing moves by the ECB and BOJ. We expect the
Fed to look through this transitory slowdown, however, and raise the federal funds rate.
U.S. CPI
Eurozone CPI
Headline CPI
Eurozone Consumer Price Index
Year-over-Year Percent Change
Year-over-Year Percent Change
15%
15%
5%
5%
12%
4%
4%
9%
9%
3%
3%
6%
6%
2%
2%
3%
3%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
12%
CPI: Jul @ 0.2%
CPI: Jul @ 0.2%
-3%
-3%
60
66
72
78
84
90
96
02
08
-1%
1997
14
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, IHS Global Insight and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
16
-1%
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
FOMC
The FOMC is slightly more optimistic about the economy’s near-term prospects than the
financial markets but has consistently expressed caution about long-term growth.
5.0%
Fed’s Dot Plot
Long Term Forecast
Fed Funds Target Rate Expectations
FOMC Longer Term Fed Funds Rate Forecast
Fed Projections as of June Meeting; Market Futures as of Sept. 8
Median of Dot Plot
4.3%
5.0%
Median Fed Expectations
4.5%
4.5%
Futures Market Rate
4.3%
Fed Funds Rate: June @ 3.75%
4.2%
4.2%
4.1%
4.1%
4.0%
4.0%
2.5%
3.9%
3.9%
2.0%
2.0%
3.8%
3.8%
1.5%
1.5%
3.7%
3.7%
1.0%
1.0%
0.5%
0.5%
3.6%
3.6%
0.0%
0.0%
4.0%
4.0%
3.5%
3.5%
3.0%
3.0%
2.5%
2015
2016
2017
3.5%
Longer Run
Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
3.5%
2012
17
2013
2014
2015
Global Yields
10-Year Government Bond Yields
Percent
U.S. yields have tended to follow
Eurozone yields. The bounce
back from earlier lows reflects
greater comfort with the growth
and inflation outlooks. The
latest iteration of the Greek
crisis led to only a modest
pullback in yields but growth
and inflation prospects have
been scaled back a bit.
3.5%
3.5%
3.0%
3.0%
2.5%
2.5%
2.0%
2.0%
1.5%
1.5%
1.0%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
2012
0.0%
2013
Source: IHS Global Insight and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
0.5%
United States: Sep 03 @ 2.2%
United Kingdom: Sep 03 @ 1.8%
Germany: Sep 03 @ 0.7%
18
2014
2015
Housing
Housing
Mortgage purchase applications and pending home sales both point to further strengthening in
new and existing home sales. Most other leading indicators also remain positive.
New Home Sales
Existing Home Sales
New Home Sales vs. Mortgage Applications
Pending vs. Existing Home Sales
Thousands, Index 1990=100; Seasonally Adjusted
1,500
500
1,350
450
1,200
400
1,050
350
900
300
750
250
600
200
450
150
300
100
New Home Sales: Jul @ 507.0 (Left Axis)
Mortgage Applications: Aug @ 196.4 (Right Axis)
150
0
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
120
7
110
6
100
5
90
4
80
3
10
12
70
14
2
02
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, MBA, National Association of Realtors and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
8
Pending Home Sales: Jul @ 111 (Left Axis)
Existing Home Sales: Jul @ 5.46M (Right Axis)
50
0
90
Index, Millions, 3-Month Moving Average
130
20
04
06
08
10
12
14
Housing
Millions of Units
2.4
We continue to look for a
gradual recovery in
homebuilding.
2.1
Single-family housing starts are
beginning to ramp back up.
Gains will be more modest than
in past building cycles.
2.1
1.8
1.8
Forecast
1.5
Apartment demand remains
exceptionally strong but supply
is catching up with demand.
2.4
Multifamily Starts
Multifamily Forecast
Single-family Starts
Single-family Forecast
1.2
1.2
0.9
0.9
0.6
0.6
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
1.5
21
Thousands
Housing Starts
Home Prices
Household formations have picked up in a significant way in recent quarters, likely reflecting
improving labor market conditions. Stronger demand and tight inventories are resulting in
higher home prices, at least as measured by median sales prices.
Household Formation
Home Prices
Household Formations
Home Prices
Average of CPS/ ASEC and CPS/HVS, In Millions
2.5
25%
2.5
Survey Averages: 2014 @ 780K
1948 to 2014 Average
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
Year-over-Year Percentage Change
20%
20%
15%
15%
10%
10%
5%
5%
0%
0%
-5%
-5%
-10%
-10%
-15%
-15%
-20%
0.0
60
64
68
72
76
80
84
88
92
96
00
04
08
-30%
12
97
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, National Association of Realtors, S&P and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
22
-20%
Median Sale Price: Jul @ $235,500
Median Sale Price, 3-M Mov Avg: Jul @ 7.1%
FHFA Purchase Only Index: Jun @ 5.6%
S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-10: Jun @ 4.6%
-25%
0.0
25%
99
01
03
05
07
09
-25%
-30%
11
13
15
South Carolina
South Carolina
South Carolina Gross State Product & U.S. GDP
Year-over-Year Percent Change
5%
South Carolina matched the
national average growth of 2.2
percent in 2014.
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
-1%
-1%
-2%
-2%
-3%
-3%
-4%
U.S. GDP: 2014 @ 2.2%
South Carolina GDP: 2014 @ 2.2%
-5%
-4%
-5%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
5%
24
South Carolina - Employment Situation
South Carolina employment rose a steady 2.6 percent over the year. The professional &
business services sector saw the largest payroll gains. The unemployment rate appears to have
stalled out, possibly reflecting stronger population and labor force growth.
Nonfarm Employment
Unemployment Rate
South Carolina vs. U.S. Unemployment Rate
South Carolina Nonfarm Employment
Seasonally Adjusted
3-Month Moving Averages
6%
12%
6%
4%
4%
2%
2%
0%
0%
-2%
-2%
-4%
-4%
-6%
-6%
12%
Unemployment Rate: Jul @ 6.4%
United States: Aug @ 5.1%
10%
QCEW: Yr/Yr Pct. Change: Dec @ 2.8%
Nonfarm: Yr/Yr Pct. Change: Jul @ 2.6%
Household: Yr/Yr Pct. Change: Jul @ 2.6%
-8%
-10%
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
8%
8%
6%
6%
4%
4%
-8%
-10%
10
12
2%
14
2%
90
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
10%
25
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
South Carolina - Employment Situation
The South Carolina portion of Charlotte, which includes York, Lancaster and Chester counties,
reported solid 4.9 percent employment growth in 2014. Data for early 2015 suggest that
growth has remained strong this year and the economic development pipeline remains strong.
Employment Growth
Unemployment Rates
South Carolina MSA Unemployment Rates
South Carolina Employment Growth by Area
July 2015
Year-over-Year Percent Change of 3-MMA, QCEW Employment
2014
Cherokee-Gaffney
Charleston
6.0%
1.7%
Greenville
Spartanburg
3.4%
6.2%
Columbia
6.4%
Spartanburg
Greenville-Anderson
7.1%
3.8%
Sumter
S.C. Portion of Charlotte
8.0%
Florence
4.9%
8.1%
0%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
26
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
South Carolina
S.C. Payroll Employment Comparisons
Index (Dec 2007=100)
The state’s strongest payroll
growth since December 2007
has been in the Charleston area.
The Charlotte-Rock Hill,
Greenville and Columbia areas
have also outpaced the state’s
average employment growth.
110
110
105
105
100
100
95
95
90
90
South Carolina: Jul @ 102.7
Charleston: Jul @ 108.2
Charlotte/Rock Hill: Jul @ 107.4
Columbia: Jul @ 102.8
Greenville: Jul @ 105.1
Sumter: Jul @ 100.5
Myrtle Beach: Jul @ 98.2
Florence: Jul @ 97.4
85
80
75
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
27
10
11
12
13
14
15
85
80
75
South Carolina
South Carolina MSA Population Growth
Population Growth 2010 - 2014, in Thousands
Sumter
0.3
Florence
1.3
Spartanburg
7.7
Chester-Lancaster-York
Charleston has seen the greatest
population growth since 2010,
increasing 60,000 over the
period.
23.9
Columbia
30.8
Greenville
36.7
Myrtle Beach
39.0
Charleston
60.0
0
10
20
30
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
28
40
50
60
70
South Carolina – Housing Market
The housing market in South Carolina has seen solid recovery in comparison to other states.
Single-family permits continue to post gains and are at their highest post-recession level.
South Carolina’s home prices continue to outpace the national average.
Housing Permits
Home Prices
South Carolina Housing Permits
Core Logic HPI: SC vs. U.S.
60
60
Single-Family: Jul @ 26,424
Single-Family, 12-MMA: Jul @ 23,099
Multifamily, 12-MMA: Jul @ 6,688
50
50
Single-Family Average (1998-2003): 26,279
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
Year-over-Year Percent Change
20%
Thousands
Thousands
Thousands of Permits, Annual Rate
16%
16%
12%
12%
8%
8%
4%
4%
0%
0%
-4%
-4%
-8%
-8%
-12%
-12%
United States: Jul @ 6.9%
South Carolina: Jul @ 7.8%
-16%
0
0
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
-16%
-20%
14
-20%
90
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, CoreLogic and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
20%
29
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
Five Critical Key Takeaways
 The economy should weather the global economic
Economic Outlook
slowdown. Exports will clearly slow. We expect real GDP
to rise 2.4 percent in 2015 and 2.6 percent in 2016.
 The stronger gains seen in Europe earlier this year likely
Weaker Global
Growth
Interest Rates Will
Rise This Year
The Housing
Recovery
The Mix of Growth
is Shifting
Economic Outlook
were a short-term response to the plunging value of the
euro. China’s economy will slow further and will weigh
further on commodity prices.
 We still look for the Fed to raise the federal funds rate
this fall but the pace and ultimate magnitude of rate
hikes now looks to be less than previously thought.
 Demand for single-family homes is reviving, with firsttime homebuyers finally coming back into the market.
Apartment construction is close to peaking.
 The economy is better for consumers than producers.
Areas of the country exposed to Agriculture, Energy,
Mining and Manufacturing will likely see growth slow.
30
U.S. Forecast
Wells Fargo U.S. Economic Forecast
Actual
Forecast
2015
Real Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption
Inflation Indicators
PCE Deflator
1
2015
Forecast
2016
2017
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
0.6
3.7
1.8
2.7
2.6
2.8
2.8
2.6
1.5
2.4
2.4
2.6
2.4
1.8
3.1
2.9
3.0
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.3
1.7
2.7
3.0
2.7
2.2
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.9
1.8
1.7
1.9
1.9
1.4
1.4
0.4
1.8
2.0
-0.1
0.0
0.3
0.9
2.2
2.0
2.0
2.2
1.5
1.6
0.3
2.1
2.2
-0.2
-2.0
3.2
3.1
3.5
3.7
3.5
3.5
1.9
3.7
1.8
3.1
3.4
2
Consumer Price Index
Industrial Production
1
Corporate Profits Before Taxes
Trade Weighted Dollar Index
Unemployment Rate
Housing Starts
Actual
2013
2014
2016
2
3
4
Quarter-End Interest Rates 5
Federal Funds Target Rate
4.6
-0.5
5.8
6.8
6.5
7.2
5.0
5.8
2.0
1.7
4.2
6.1
5.5
92.1
89.9
92.0
93.0
94.0
95.3
96.5
97.8
75.9
78.5
91.7
95.9
99.1
5.6
5.4
5.2
5.0
4.9
4.8
4.7
4.6
7.4
6.2
5.3
4.8
4.5
0.98
1.16
1.21
1.22
1.24
1.24
1.25
1.26
0.92
1.00
1.14
1.25
1.35
0.25
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
0.25
0.25
0.38
1.13
2.13
Conventional Mortgage Rate
3.77
3.98
4.00
4.15
4.23
4.28
4.37
4.63
3.98
4.17
3.98
4.38
4.82
10 Year Note
1.94
2.35
2.38
2.40
2.49
2.53
2.63
2.77
2.35
2.54
2.27
2.61
2.92
Forecast as of: September 11, 2015
1
C ompound Annual Growth Rate Quarter-over-Quarter
2
Year-over-Year Percentage C hange
3
Federal Reserve Major C urrency Index, 1973=100 - Quarter End
4
Millions of Units
5
Annual Numbers Represent Averages
Economic Outlook
31
International Economic Forecast
Wells Fargo International Economic Forecast
(Year-over-Year Percent C hange)
GDP
We project that global GDP
growth will strengthen a bit
during the next two years.
CPI
2015
2016
2017
2015
2016
2017
Global (PPP Weights)
Global (Market Exchange Rates)
2.9%
2.7%
3.3%
3.0%
3.5%
3.1%
3.3%
n/a
3.5%
n/a
3.5%
n/a
Advanced Economies 1
United States
Eurozone
United Kingdom
Japan
Korea
Canada
2.0%
2.4%
1.5%
2.6%
0.6%
2.2%
1.0%
2.4%
2.6%
2.0%
2.3%
1.1%
3.4%
2.0%
2.4%
2.4%
2.2%
2.3%
1.4%
3.5%
2.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.1%
0.3%
1.0%
0.8%
1.3%
1.6%
2.1%
1.1%
1.6%
1.1%
2.3%
2.3%
1.8%
2.2%
1.5%
1.9%
1.1%
2.1%
2.0%
Developing Economies 1
China
India2
Mexico
Brazil
Russia
3.8%
6.8%
7.3%
2.3%
-2.0%
-3.8%
4.1%
6.3%
7.3%
2.5%
-0.7%
1.1%
4.5%
6.0%
7.9%
2.6%
1.2%
2.5%
6.1%
1.6%
5.3%
2.9%
9.1%
15.5%
5.3%
1.8%
5.0%
3.3%
7.9%
7.1%
5.3%
1.9%
5.6%
3.0%
6.8%
5.6%
Forecast as of: September 9, 2015
1
Aggregated Using PPP Weights
2
Forecasts Refer to Fiscal Year
Source: IHS Global Insight and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
32
Appendix
Economic Outlook Group Publications
A Sampling of Our Recent Special, Regional & Industry Commentary
Selected Recent Economic Reports
Date
Title
Authors
U.S. Macro
To view any of our past research
please visit:
http://www.wellsfargo.com/
economics
To join any of our research
distribution lists please visit:
http://www.wellsfargo.com/
economicsemail
August-24
Raining on the Parade
Quinlan, House & Nelson
August-24
Capitol Hill Update: A Packed Agenda Awaits Congress
Silvia & Brown
August-24
Retail Sales by Distribution Channel: Pre-and-Post Great Recession
Alemán
August-20
Fiscal Policy: Tighter Than Originially Thought?
Brown & Pugliese
August-06
Wells Fargo Small Business Survey: Q3 2015
Vitner & Wolf
August-21
U.S. Regional
California Employment Conditions: July 2015
Vitner
August-21
Texas Labor Market Conditions Held Up Well Through July
Vitner
August-21
Florida Job Growth Picked Up in July
Vitner
August-20
Hiring Ramps Up in New York
Vitner
August-20
Minnesota Posts Slight Job Loss in July
Vitner
August-24
The Peruvian Economy Strengthened in Q2
Alemán
August-21
Could Developing Countries Take Down Developed Economies?
Bryson
August-20
Mexican Economic Growth Was Unimpressive in Q2
Alemán
August-19
Outlook for Developing Countries: A Compendium
Bryson, Alemán, Quinlan & Nelson
August-18
Chilean Economy Remained Weak in Q2
Alemán
August-19
Interest Rates/Credit Market
Mortgage Lending Standards: Different Strokes
Silvia, Vitner & Brown
August-12
Economics and Consumer Interest Rates: A Link?
Silvia, Vitner & Brown
August-05
TIP: Pay Little Heed to Current TIPS Breakeven Inflation
Silvia, Vitner & House
July-29
Potential Fiscal Policy Challenges to Monetary Policy: Part II
Silvia, Vitner & Brown
July-22
Potential Fiscal Policy Challenges to Monetary Policy: Part I
Silvia, Vitner & Brown
Real Estate
Commerial Real Estate Chartbook: Q2
Khan
July-31
Housing Chartbook: July 2015
Vitner, Khan & Batcheller
July-24
Nonresidential Construction Recap: July
Khan
June-30
Housing Data Wrap-Up: June 2015
Vitner, Khan & Moehring
June-30
Nonresidential Construction Recap: June
Khan
Global Econom y
August-07
Economic Outlook
34
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Economics Group
Global Head of Research and Economics
Economists
Diane Schumaker-Krieg
………………… ….diane.schumaker@wellsfargo.com
Global Head of Research & Economics
Azhar Iqbal, Econometrician………………… ……………azhar.iqbal@wellsfargo.com
……
Tim Quinlan, Economist …………………… ……………. .tim.quinlan@wellsfargo.com
Eric J. Viloria, Currency Strategist
Chief Economist
Sarah House, Economist
John E. Silvia …
...................... …
john.silvia@wellsfargo.com
.
…………… …………
Michael A. Brown, Economist ……………… …
eric.viloria@wellsfargo.com
sarah.house@wellsfargo.com
michael.a.brown@wellsfargo.com
Senior Economists
Economic Analysts
Mark Vitner, Senior Economist……………....………. .
mark.vitner@wellsfargo.com
Erik Nelson, Economic Analyst
Jay H. Bryson, Global Economist …………………....…… ….jay.bryson@wellsfargo.com
Sam Bullard, Senior Economist
sam.bullard@wellsfargo.com
Nick Bennenbroek, Currency Strategist ……nicholas.bennenbroek@wellsfargo.com
Alex Moehring, Economic Analyst
alex.v.moehring@wellsfargo.com
Misa Batcheller, Economic Analyst
misa.n.batcheller@wellsfargo.com
Michael Pugliese, Economic Analyst
michael.d.pugliese@wellsfargo.com
Administrative Assistants
Eugenio J. Alemán, Senior Economist… …………eugenio.j.aleman@wellsfargo.com
Anika R. Khan, Senior Economist …
erik.f.nelson@wellsfargo.com
Donna LaFleur, Executive Assistant.
. anika.khan@wellsfargo.com
Cyndi Burris, Senior Administrative Assistant
donna.lafleur@wellsfargo.com
cyndi.burris@wellsfargo.com
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Economic Outlook
35