ICES T T 7 TV K X .u X V 1 ICES International Council for the Exploration of the Sea Conseil International pour l'Exploration de la Mer « T " P TL K X I j XV X International Council for the Exploration of the Sea Conseil International pour l'Exploration de la Mer ICES C O O P E R A T IV E R E S E A R C H R E P O R T NO. 2 9 1 SPECIAL ISSUE R A P P O R T D E S R E C H E R C H E S COL LECT I VES AUGUST 2 OO8 ICES Report on Ocean Climate 2007 Prepared by the W orking Group on Oceanic Hydrography ICES R ep o rt o n O cean C lim ate 2007 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. H. C. Andersens Boulevard 44-46 DK-1553 Copenhagen V Denmark Telephone (+45) 33 38 67 00 Telefax (+45) 33 93 42 15 www.ices.dk info@ices.dk © 2008 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea 1.2. The N o rth A tlantic atm o sp h ere in w in ter 2006/2007 4 3. THE NORTH ATLANTIC ATMOSPHERE A bove. Ocean climate monitoring in the iceberg infested waters of Newfoundland and Labrador in July 2002, on board the Canadian Coast Guard ship “Teleost". Image courtesy o f E. Colbourne, Fisheries and Oceans, Canada C over image. E V "Polarstern" in Pram Strait. Image courtesy o f A. BeszczynskaMöller, AW I, Germany. For perm ission to reproduce m aterial from this publication, please apply to the General Secretary. ISBN 978-87-7482-035-2 ISSN 1017-6195 4 SUMMARY OF UPPER OCEAN CONDITIONS IN 2007 Recommended format for purposes of citation: Hughes, S. L., Holliday, N. R, and Beszczynska-Möller, A. (Eds). 2008. ICES Report on Ocean Climate 2007. ICES Cooperative Research Report No. 291.64 pp. This docum ent is a report of an Expert Group under the auspices of the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea and does not necessarily represent the view of the Council. 1.1. H ighlights for 2007 2. 4. International Council for the Exploration of the Sea Conseil Intern ation al po u r l'Exploration de la M er INTRODUCTION 5. 7 3.1. N o rth A tlantic O scillation 13 3.2. N o rth A tlantic surface air tem p eratu re 16 DETAILED AREA DESCRIPTIONS, PART I: THE UPPER OCEAN 4.1. In tro d u ctio n 17 4.2. A rea 1 - W est G reen lan d 18 4.3. A rea 2 - N o rth w est A tlantic: Scotian Shelf and th e N ew fo u n d lan d an d L abrador Shelf 19 4.4. A rea 2b - L abrador Sea 24 4.5. A rea 2c - M id-A tlantic Bight 25 4.6. A rea 3 - Icelandic W aters 29 4.7. A rea 4 - Bay of Biscay an d eastern A tlantic 32 4.8. A rea 4b - N o rth w est E uropean co n tin en tal shelf 35 4.9. A rea 5 - Rockall Trough 37 4.10. A rea 5b - Irm inger Sea 38 4.11. A rea 6 - Faroe B ank C h an n el a n d Faroe C u rren t 40 4.12. A rea 7 - F aro e-S h etla n d C h an n el 42 4.13. A reas 8 an d 9 - N o rth e rn an d so u th e rn N o rth Sea 43 4.14. A rea 9b - Skagerrak, K attegat, an d the Baltic 47 4.15. A rea 10 - N o rw eg ian Sea 50 4.16. A rea 1 1 - B a re n ts Sea 52 4.17. A rea 12 - G reen lan d Sea an d Fram Strait 53 DETAILED AREA DESCRIPTIONS, PART II: THE DEEP OCEAN 5.1. In tro d u ctio n 56 5.2. N ordic Seas deep w aters 57 5.3. N o rth A tlantic deep w aters 59 5.4. N o rth A tlantic in term ed iate w aters 61 ICES C o o p erativ e R esearch R eport N o. 291 ICES R ep o rt o n O cean C lim ate 2007 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 H ighlights for 2007 T he N o rth A tlantic reg io n is u n u su a l in h aving a relatively large n u m b e r of locations at w hich o cean o g rap h ic d ata have re p eated ly b e e n collected for m an y years or decades; th e lo n g est records go b ack m ore th a n a century. In th is report, w e provide th e very latest in fo rm atio n from th e ICES A rea of th e N o rth A tlantic a n d N ordic Seas, w h ere th e ocean is cu rrently m easu re d regularly. We describe th e statu s of sea te m p e ra tu re a n d salinity d u rin g 2007, as w ell as th e observed tren d s over th e last decade o r longer. In th e first p a rt of th e rep o rt, w e draw to g e th e r th e in fo rm atio n from th e lo n g est tim eseries in o rd er to give th e b e st possible overview of ch an g es in th e ICES A rea. T h ro u g h o u t th e report, ad d itio n al co m p lem en tary d a tasets are provided, su ch as sea level pressu re (SLP), air tem p eratu re, a n d ice cover. The u p p e r layers of th e N o rth A tlantic an d N ordic Seas re m ain e d exceptionally w arm a n d saline in 2007, co m p ared w ith th e lo n g -te rm average. The largest anom alies w ere observed at h ig h latitudes. This is th e te n th ed itio n of th e a n n u a l ICES Report 0 1 1 Ocean Climate (previously titled th e ICES A nnual Ocean Climate Status Sum m anj), a n d w e have c o n tin u ed to develop th e co n ten ts. The m ain focus of th e rep o rt is th e o bserved variability in th e u p p e r o cean (the u p p e r 1000 m), a n d th e in tro d u cto ry section includes o p eratio n al m od el o u tp u t from th e Coriolis C entre, France, w h ich assim ilates d ata from th e A R G O float p ro g ram m e a n d satellites. We have e x p an d ed a n d slightly reo rg an ized th e section, d escribing ch an g es in th e d e e p e r layers of th e ocean. In th is edition, w e include, for th e first tim e, a lo n g tim e-series from th e w e ste rn English C h an n el, co u rtesy of P ly m o u th M arine Laboratory, UK. In ad d itio n to th e se n e w datasets, w e continue to u p d a te th e m an y tim e-series th a t have b e e n diligently rep o rte d for m an y years to th e ICES W orking G roup o n O ceanic H ydrography. T he d ata p resen te d h ere rep re se n t an accum ulation of kno w led g e collected by m an y individuals an d in stitu tio n s th ro u g h decades of observations. It w o u ld b e im possible to list th e m all, b u t at th e e n d of th e rep o rt, w e provide a list of contacts for each d ataset, in clu d in g e-m ail ad d resses for th e individuals w h o p rovided th e info rm atio n , a n d th e d a ta centres at w h ich th e full archives of d ata are held. M ore d etailed analysis of th e d a tasets th a t form th e tim e-series p re se n te d in th is rep o rt can be fo u n d in th e a n n u al m e etin g rep o rts of th e ICES W orking G ro u p o n O ceanic H y d ro g rap h y at w w w .ices.dk/ icesw ork/w gdetail.asp?w g= W G O H . NORTH ATLANTIC UPPER OCEAN TEMPERATURE OVERVIEW The N o rth Sea, Baltic Sea, a n d Bay of Biscay h a d an u n u su ally w arm w in ter an d sp rin g as a result of a co m b in atio n of sto red h e a t from th e w arm a u tu m n in 2006 a n d h ig h solar rad iatio n in 2007. The tren d in th e p ast d ecade (1996-2006) h as b e e n of w arm in g an d increasin g salinity in th e u p p er ocean .T em p eratu re a n d salinity have b e e n relatively stable since 2004. 1.2 The North Atlantic atm osphere in w inter 2006/2007 9 ) N O R T H C E LAND 2 6 ) FR A M ST R A IT , W E S T S P1 T Z B E R G E N C U R R E I 1 1 ) S O U T H W E S T ICELAND The Iceland L ow a n d A zores H ig h w ere b o th stro n g er th a n no rm al, a n d th e centre of th e Iceland L ow w as displaced to w ard s th e so u th e rn L abrador Sea. The m e a n m id -la titu d e stro n g er th a n norm al. w esterly w in d s “I T 22) W E S T E R N BARENTS SE A w ere A cross th e m id -N o rth A tlantic, w in te r surface air tem p e ra tu re s w ere generally n e a r norm al. F arther n o rth a n d aw ay from th e inflow to th e N ordic Seas, surface air tem p e ra tu re w as g enerally m ore th a n 1°C w arm e r th a n norm al. 2 3 ) E A S T E R N B A R E N T S 'S E A 2) G REENLAND SH ELF 3 ) LA B R A D O R S E A [ttïïj 2 1 ) N O R T H E R N N O R W E G IA N S E A Jfl .Ill ,n. I f l ftít-, 3 2 ) BALTIC S E A * 4 ) N E W F O U N D L A N D S HE LF 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 8 ) M ISAINE BANK (B O T T O M T E M P ) 2000 • 1 9 ) S O U T H E R N N O R W E G IA N S E A (O W S -M ) 2 8 ) N O RTH ER N NORTH S E A 7 ) E M E R A L D BANK (B O T T O M T E M P ) 3 0 ) SO U T H E R N NORTH S E A flkid-li-Ai trll 1 7 ) F A R O E SH E T L A N D CH A N N E L 6 ) G E O R G E S BANK 3 1 ) G E R M A N BIG H T [£®i 5 ) MID ATLANTIC B G HT 2 7 ) BAY O F B ISC A Y Figure 1. Upper ocean temperature anomalies at selected locations across the North Atlantic. The anomalies are normalized w ith respect to the standard deviation (e.g. a value o f+2 indicates 2 standard deviations above normal). The upper maps show conditions in 2007; data on the left arefrom in situ observations; 2007 anomalies on the right are calculated from OISSTv2 data (see Figure 3); the lower panels show time-series o f normalized anomalies at each of the selected stations (colour intervals 0.5; reds are positive/warm, and blues are negative/cool). See Figure 9 for a map showing more detail about the locations in this figure. ICES C o o p erativ e R esearch R eport N o. 291 ICES R ep o rt o n O cean C lim ate 2007 NORTH ATLANTIC UPPER OCEAN SALINITY OVERVIEW 2. SUMMARY OF UPPER OCEAN CONDITIONS IN 2007 “s u s t a i n e d REGULAR In this section, w e sum m arize th e conditions in th e u p p e r layers of th e N o rth A tlantic d u ring 2007, u sin g d ata from a selected set of su stain ed observations an d additional d ata p roducts (gridded sea surface tem p eratu re (SST) d ata an d sum m aries from A R G O floats). ” or OF “t i m e -s e r i e s ” a r e OCEAN A N D SALINITY MADE OVER A L O N G TEMPERATURE PERIOD (10-100 YE ARS ) . M O S T M E A S U R E M E N T S ARE M A D E 1 - 4 T I M E S A YEAR, B U T S O M E ARE T A K E N M O R E F R E Q U E N T L Y . “ A N O M A L I E S ” ARE T H E BETWEEN W here in situ data are p re se n te d in th e sum m ary tables an d figures, norm alized anom alies have b e e n p re se n te d to allow b e tte r com parison of tren d s in th e d ata from different regions (Figures 1-3; Tables 1 an d 2). The anom alies have b e e n norm alized by dividing th e values by the stan d ard deviation of the data d u rin g 1971-2000. A value of +2 th u s rep resen ts d ata (tem perature or salinity) at 2 sta n d ard deviations h ig h er th a n norm al. o b s e r v a t io n s MEASUREMENTS THE EACH AVERAGE MATHEMATICAL INDIVIDUAL VALUES OF TEMPERATURE, O R O T H E R VARI ABLES AT T H A T ANOMALIES NEGATIVE MEAN WARM ANOMALIES DIFFERENCE MEASUREMENT OR MEAN LOCATION. SALINE COOL AND SALINITY, POSITIVE CONDITIONS; OR FRESH CONDITIONS. TH E “ SEA SO N AL CYCLE” DESCRIBES TH E SH OR T- TE RM C H A N G E S AT T H E S U R F A C E O F T H E O C E A N B R O U G H T A B O U T BY T H E P A S S I N G O F T H E S E A S O N S ; T H E O C E A N 3 - 9 ) NORTH C E LAND 2 „ rffa 1 1 ) SO U T H W E S T C E LAND 3 - 26 ) FR A M STRAIT, W E S T S P IT Z B E R G E N C U R R E N T '3 1 ° -2 • -3 • 1950 ■ -2 ■ -3 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1950 1960 1970 D ’ nE h?<<,,l|Í l f l Í Í 1 1980 1990 1 U U 1 J -2 • -I3 22 ) W E S T E R N BARENTS S E A 2000 j r f tîî 3 ■ 1) FR A M STRAIT E A S T G REEN LAN D CU RR E N T ---------------------------------------------- -2 ■ ^ ' 2 ) G REEN LAN D SH E L F ■3 - 2 - 23 ) E A S T E R N BA REN TS S E A n_n n p in t] itjd iil n x L -í f j t n -3 • -3 ■ -3 3 ■ 2 ■; Sea surface tem p eratu res across th e entire N o rth A tlantic have also b e e n o b tain ed from a com bined satellite an d in situ gridded dataset. Figure 3 show s th e a n n u al an d seasonal SST anom aly for 2007, extracted from th e O p tim u m In terp o la tio n SSTv2 d ataset provided by th e N OA A-CIRES C lim ate D iagnostics C en ter in th e US. In h ig h latitudes w h ere in situ data are sparse an d satellite data are h in d e re d by cloud cover, th e data m ay be less reliable. R egions w ith ice cover for >50% of the averaging p erio d are left blank. 3 ) LABRADOR S E A | 21 ) N O RTH ER N NORW EG IAN r SEA « tfltîl 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 -1 U 1 U 1950 -2 ■ ■3 • 1960 1970 1980 ■ -3 1990 2000 -3 "1 ' A ftj /p tiir 11 4 ) NEW FOUNDLAND S H E L F ° ^ 4 3 - 1 9 ) S O U T H E R N N O RW EGIAN S E A (O W S-M ) 3 ■ 8 ) MISAINE BANK (BOTTOM) ■= 28 ) N O RTH ER N NOBTTI S E A I 'J k l L /frT T s ^ n n -2 • -2 • ' 3 ' 7 ) E ME RALD B ANK ( BOTTO M TE MP ) n J 3g 16 ) F A R O E C U R R E N T - 1 n » ju J ffiiffftll I - -2 - -3 -3 4 I ¡Jifflffllîflïnriîtflta -3 ■ 4 2 ■ r 3 0 ) S O U T H E R N NORTH S E A R 0 ---------------------------------- i -2 ■ J3 ^ 3 1 ) GERM A N B C H T i d tp - , rfi jfftdl III 1 7 ) F A R O E SHETLAND CHANNEL -3 4 r 2 ■ : - -1 - -2 13 ) RO CK A LLTRO U GH - -3 1970 . - 1 5) MID ATLANTIC BIGHT 1960 uu di T -2 1950 UII UtJj -1= g -3 ■ 2 r Ik 1980 1990 2000 M aps of tem p eratu re, salinity, an d w in ter m ixedlayer d e p th in the N o rth A tlantic have b e e n p rep ared u sin g in situ data in clu d in g th e new ly ex p anding d ataset from th e A R G O float p ro g ram m e.T h e u p p er layer tem p eratu re anom alies for 2007 com pare w ell w ith th o se o b tain ed u sin g OISSTv2 d ata (Figure 1). T hese m ap s (Figures 4 an d 5) offer a m ore detailed overview of conditions th a n can be o b tain ed from satellite observations an d provide th e spatial context to com pare w ith the in situ tim e-series. 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 ^ 2000 -2 ■ -3 ■ 1950 1960 1970 T H E U P P E R LAYERS O F T H E N O R T H A TL ANT IC A N D N O R D I C SEAS WERE -1 ■ 27 ) BAY O F B ß CAY 1980 1990 2000 W A RM ER A N D MORE SALINE T H A N T H E L O N G -T E R M AVERAGE. Figure 2. Upper ocean salinity anomalies at selected locations across the North Atlantic. The anomalies are calculated relative to a long-term mean and normalized w ith respect to the standard deviation (e.g. a value o f+2 indicates 2 standard deviations above normal). The map (upper panel) shows conditions in 2007; the lower panels show time-series o f normalized anomalies at each o f the selected stations (colour intervals o f 0.5; orange are positive/saline, green are negative/fresh). See Figure 9 for a map showing more detail about the locations in this figure. S U R F A C E IS C O L D I N W I N T E R A N D W A R M S T H R O U G H SPRING AND SUMMER. THE TEMPERATURE AND S A L I N I T Y C H A N G E S C A U S E D BY T H E S E A S O N A L CY C L E ARE U S UAL L Y M U C H LARGER T H A N TH E P R O L O N G E D YEAR- TO-YEAR C H A N G E S W E DE SCRIBE HE RE . B elow . Frozen lights on the E V "Polarstern" in Fram Strait. Image courtesy o f A. Beszczynska-Möller, AW I, Germany. ICES C o o p erativ e R esearch R eport N o. 291 ICES R ep o rt o n O cean C lim ate 2007 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1 (1 2 ) -0.25 0.68 0.06 0.60 -1.52 0.32 1.22 0.04 0.04 3.50 2(1 ) 1.27 0.75 1.34 1.56 -0.51 2.46 1.30 1.41 1.09 0.27 3 (2b) 1.35 1.55 0.33 0.67 0.64 2.56 1.09 1.60 1.51 1.10 4 (2 ) -0.04 1.18 1.15 1.25 0.68 1.18 2.94 1.97 3.26 0.01 5 (2c) -0.80 1.14 1.59 1.20 0.54 -0.13 -0.56 -0.83 6 (2c) 0.86 2.29 0.47 1.84 3.11 -0.32 -2.24 -1.59 1.36 -0.11 7 (2 ) -1.79 -0.22 0.22 0.11 0.09 0.37 0.36 0.11 0.30 -1.53 8 (2 ) -0.03 0.75 3.55 -0.31 0.14 -1.77 -1.01 -0.02 0.88 -0.41 9 (3 ) -0.11 0.84 1.02 0.07 -1.19 2.11 0.94 0.44 0.05 0.61 10(3 ) -0.34 0.08 -0.44 -0.49 -1.04 1.54 0.39 -0.16 0.14 -0.44 11(3 ) 2.57 0.95 0.53 0.70 0.49 1.89 1.84 2.58 1.68 1.26 12 (4b ) 1.60 1.38 1.38 0.50 1.38 1.82 2.69 2.48 2.26 13(5 ) 0.47 1.23 0.50 0.09 1.58 1.94 2.18 2.95 2.35 1.37 0.26 1.24 1.04 1.11 2.72 1.58 1.22 2.01 2.34 14 (5b ) 15(6 ) 1.24 -0.07 0.34 0.86 0.89 2.75 2.43 1.53 2.58 16(6 ) 1.42 0.41 0.49 0.45 0.74 2.37 1.96 1.50 1.59 1.92 17(7 ) 0.64 0.66 0.32 0.32 2.17 3.72 3.16 2.27 2.59 2.85 18(7 ) 0.71 1.07 1.17 1.83 2.72 3.12 2.72 2.45 2.92 2.56 19(10) 1.39 1.97 1.69 1.18 1.85 2.21 2.57 1.39 2.45 0.97 20(10) 1.42 0.21 1.81 1.52 3.41 2.95 1.70 1.35 2.59 3.59 21 (10) 0.72 1.39 0.87 1.37 0.77 1.82 1.67 1.82 2.34 1.27 22(11 ) 0.08 1.09 0.70 0.39 0.89 0.69 1.32 1.44 1.99 1.78 23(11 ) -0.57 0.64 1.47 1.16 1.03 0.48 1.79 1.86 2.39 2.10 24(12) -1.01 -0.21 0.12 0.13 -0.08 -0.68 0.50 1.10 2.13 1.04 25(10) -0.10 0.37 0.03 0.58 0.15 0.81 1.54 1.73 0.95 26(12) -0.93 1.07 0.34 1.45 0.95 1.03 2.29 2.33 3.71 2.74 27(4 ) 1.00 0.10 -0.26 -0.27 -0.29 0.13 -0.20 -1.13 -0.17 0.92 28 (8&9) 1.15 0.95 0.89 1.16 2.11 2.71 2.02 1.43 1.80 1.41 29 (8&9) 0.19 0.74 0.60 0.49 0.69 0.84 0.68 0.17 30 (8&9) 0.90 0.10 0.74 0.54 0.95 0.70 0.34 0.17 0.20 0.78 31 (8&9) 0.40 1.47 0.97 0.95 1.66 1.17 0.95 1.15 1.43 3 2 (9b ) -0.55 0.83 0.99 2.34 0.24 0.80 1.44 1.83 1.83 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1.69 2.01 1 (1 2 ) -0.04 0.78 -0.94 0.69 -1.40 0.42 0.51 1.78 2(1 ) 0.27 0.30 0.24 1.33 -1.69 1.30 0.75 1.24 3 (2b) 0.72 -0.41 0.61 0.17 0.63 0.54 1.20 1.02 0.60 0.80 4 (2 ) 0.33 -0.45 0.41 -0.87 1.15 0.54 0.95 0.99 0.91 0.99 6 (2c) -2.26 -0.03 0.44 -0.11 1.01 0.50 -0.67 -2.02 -0.76 0.37 7 (2 ) -2.34 0.37 0.53 0.25 -0.22 0.84 0.30 0.43 0.69 -1.11 8 (2 ) 1.15 0.36 -0.97 0.12 -0.70 -1.15 -1.16 -1.73 -0.29 0.02 9 (3 ) -0.48 0.95 0.56 0.61 -0.48 1.14 0.81 0.02 -0.09 -0.09 10(3 ) -1.33 0.19 0.59 0.34 -0.12 0.29 0.35 0.18 0.70 0.69 11(3 ) 1.98 1.44 0.79 0.66 0.78 2.03 1.89 2.77 1.89 1.89 1.41 1.25 0.66 0.67 2.07 1.93 1.69 1.27 0.32 1.53 0.10 0.70 1.37 0.54 2.45 1.84 1.53 1.72 2.37 1.92 1.41 1.62 3 Tables 1 an d 2. Changes in temperature (Table 1, top) and salinity (Table 2, bottom) at selected stations in the North Atlantic region during the past decade. The index numbers on the 2 left can be used to cross-reference each point w ith information in Figures 1 and 2 and Table 3. The numbers in brackets refer to detailed area descriptions later in the report. Unless specified, these are upper layer anomalies. The 1 anomalies are normalized with respect to the standard deviation (e.g. a value o f +2 indicates that the data (temperature or salinity) for that year was 2 standard deviations above normal). Blank boxes indicate that no data were 0 available fo r that particular year at the time o f publication. Note that no salinity data are available for regions 5,12, and 29. W n er - 2007 -1 S um m er - 2007 -2 -3 5 (2c) 2 1 12 (4b ) 13(5 ) 14 (5b ) 15(6 ) 1.10 0.61 0.70 0.54 0.57 2.16 16(6 ) 1.07 0.93 0.67 0.63 0.83 2.02 1.73 2.15 1.46 1.58 17(7 ) 1.54 1.05 0.42 0.77 1.95 2.66 2.92 2.42 1.85 1.60 18(7 ) 0.65 1.08 1.11 1.34 1.71 2.05 2.08 1.99 1.65 0.91 19(10) 0.81 0.81 0.81 1.05 1.05 2.01 2.25 1.05 1.42 0.55 20(10) 0.85 0.34 0.89 0.49 1.27 1.49 1.47 1.27 1.22 1.42 21 (10) 0.65 0.85 0.51 0.56 0.49 1.48 1.52 1.95 1.88 1.12 22(11 ) -0.10 0.56 0.16 0.06 0.34 0.72 1.55 1.51 2.00 1.64 23(11 ) 0.28 -0.05 0.12 -0.72 -0.22 0.95 1.95 0.95 0.95 1.62 24(12) -1.02 -0.74 -0.32 0.13 0.17 -0.18 1.42 25(10) -0.55 0.20 -0.11 0.57 0.29 26(12) -0.38 1.51 0.38 1.89 1.51 27(4 ) 1.26 0.58 -0.34 -1.68 28 (8&9) 0.78 0.22 -0.94 -1.09 30 (8&9) 0.86 0.63 0.28 31 (8&9) 1.13 0.55 0.04 3 2 (9b ) -1.44 -2.02 -1.11 0.50 1.41 1.89 0.94 1.76 2.00 1.63 1.51 1.89 3.40 4.15 2.23 -0.19 -0.70 -0.50 -0.02 0.82 0.73 0.05 1.24 1.27 0.66 0.03 0.40 -0.59 -1.52 -0.56 0.16 0.12 0.53 -0.41 -0.95 -0.27 0.60 0.44 0.27 1.01 -1.98 -1.48 -1.77 -1.40 -0.99 -1.69 29 (8&9) -0.94 0 -1 -2 Figure 3. M aps o f seasonal sea surface temperature anomalies (°C) over the North Atlantic for 2007 from the N O A A Optimum Interpolation SSTv2 dataset provided by the N O A A -CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, US. The colour-coded temperature scale is the same in all panels. The anomaly is calculated with respect to normal conditions for 1971-2000. The data are produced on a one-degree grid from a combination o f satellite and in situ temperature data. Regions w ith ice cover for >50% o f the averaging period are left blank. Autumn - 2007 ICES C o o p erativ e R esearch R eport N o. 291 ICES R ep o rt o n O cean C lim ate 2007 Index Description Area M easurem ent d ep th Long-term average Lat Lon M ean T Stdev T M ean S Stdev S i Fram Strait - East G reenland Current Section Average 3°W to shelf edge 12 50-500 m 1980-2000 78.83 -8.00 0.58 0.39 34.67 0.11 2 Station 4 - Fylla Section Greenland Shelf 1 0 -2 0 0 m 1971-2000 63.88 -53-37 2.86 1.03 33.56 0.33 Section AR7W - Central Labrador Sea 2b 0-150 m 1990-2000 57-73 -51.07 3-49 0.42 34.68 0.08 Station 27 - N ew foundland Shelf Temperature - Canada 2 0-175 m 1971-2000 47-55 -52-59 0.27 0.33 31.63 0.24 5 Oleander Section (120-400 km) Mid-Atlantic Bight USA 2C Surface 1978-2000 39.00 -71.50 6 Georges Bank - Mid-Atlantic Bight USA 2C 0 -3 0 m 1977-2000 42.00 -70.00 32.65 0.23 7 Emerald Bank Central Scotian Shelf - Canada 2 Near Bottom 1971-2000 44.00 -63.00 1.20 0.23 8 Misaine Bank N ortheast Scotian Shelf- Canada 2 Near Bottom 1971-2000 45.00 -59.00 0.65 0.16 9 Siglunes Station 2 - 4 - N orth IcelandIrminger Current 3 50-150 m 1971-2000 67.00 -18.00 anom aly PSAL. 10m 2007 anom aly TEM P, 10 n Cea 3 4 2007 C Table 3. Details o f the datasets included in Figures 1 and 2, and Tables 1 and 2. Blank boxes indicate areas fo r which information was unavailable at the time o f publication. 0.86 3-34 0.42 1.09 34.82 0.19 io Longanes Station 2 -6 - N ortheast Iceland - East Icelandic Current 3 0 -5 0 m 1971-2000 67.50 -13.50 1.24 0.95 34.70 0.14 il Selvogsbanki Station 5 Southw est Iceland - Irminger Current 3 0 -2 0 0 m 1971-2000 63.00 -22.00 7.58 047 35-15 0.05 12 M alin H ead W eather Station 4b Surface 1971-2000 55-37 -7-34 10.57 0.46 13 Ellett Line - Rockall Trough - UK (section average) 5 0 -8 0 0 m 1975-20 0 0 56-75 -11.00 9.21 0.32 35-33 0.03 14 Central Irminger Sea Subpolar Mode W ater 5b 200 -4 0 0 m 1991-2005 59.40 -36.80 3-99 0.55 34.88 0.03 15 Faroe Bank Channel South Faroe Islands 6 Upper layer high salinity core 1988-2000 61.00 -8.00 8.23 0.32 35.24 0.04 i6 Faroe Current - N orth Faroe Islands (Modified N orth Atlantic Water) 6 Upper layer high salinity core 1988-2000 63.00 -6.00 7.92 0-37 35.22 0.04 17 Faroe Shetland Channel Shetland Shelf (North A tlantic Water) 7 Upper layer high salinity core 1971-2000 61.00 -3.00 9-57 0.15 35.36 0.03 18 Faroe Shetland Channel - Faroe Shelf (Modified N orth Atlantic Water) 7 Upper layer high salinity core 1971-2000 61.50 -6.00 7.87 0.22 35.22 0.04 19 Ocean W eather Station "Mike” - 50 m 10 50 m 1971-2000 66.00 -2.00 741 0.33 35-15 0.04 20 Southern N orwegian S e a Svin0y Section - Atlantic Water 10 50-200 m 1978-2000 63.00 3.00 7.84 0.28 35.22 0.05 MWÍ »W 2007 anom aly 2007 anom aly PSAL. 300m 2007 anom aly TEM P, ÜOOm 2007 anom aly Ccg C 9.78 S * 'W Central Norwegian Sea Gims0y Section - A tlantic Water 10 50-200 m 1978-2000 69.00 12.00 6.67 0.40 35-14 0.04 22 Fugl0ya-Bear Island SectionW estern Barents Sea - Atlantic Inflow 11 50-200 m 1977-2006 73.00 20.00 5-35 0.52 35.06 0.04 23 Kola Section - Eastern Barents Sea u 0 -2 0 0 m 1971-2000 71.50 33.30 3.92 0.49 34.76 0.06 24 Greenland Sea SectionW est of Spitsbergen 76.5°N 12 200 m 1996-2006 76.50 10.50 3.08 0.66 35-05 0.04 25 N orthern N orwegian Sea S0rkapp Section - Atlantic Water 10 50-200 m 1977-2000 76.33 10.00 3.80 0.71 35-05 0.05 26 Fram Strait - W est Spitsbergen Current Section average 5°E to shelf edge 12 50-500 m 1980-2000 78.83 8.00 2.60 0.58 34-99 0.03 27 Santander Station 6 (shelf break) Bay of Biscay - Spain 4 5-200 m 1993-20 0 0 43.70 -3.78 13.13 0.41 35-59 0.08 28 Fair Isle Current W ater (waters entering N orth Sea from Atlantic) 8 &9 0-100 m 1971-2000 59.00 -2.00 9.67 0.34 34.88 0.08 29 UK Coastal W aters Southern Bight - N orth Sea 8 &9 Surface 1971-2000 54.00 0.00 30 Section average - Felixstowe Rotterdam - 52°N 8 &9 Surface 1971-2000 52.00 3.00 12.14 1.12 34.64 0.21 31 Helgoland Roads - Coastal W aters Germ an Bight N orth Sea 8 &9 Surface 1971-2000 54-19 7.90 10.10 0.72 32.11 0.54 32 Baltic Proper - East of Gotland Baltic Sea 9b Surface 1971-2000 (S) 1990-2000 (T) 57-50 19.50 8.57 1.05 7-35 0.24 PSAL, 1000m TEM P, 1000m DtfrC 21 Figure 4. M aps o f North Atlantic salinity (left column) and temperature (right column) at 10 m, 300 m, and 1000 m. Anomalies are differences between 2007 data and climatology. These products are generated by the Coriolis Operational Oceanography Centre, which compiles in situ (including Argo float temperature and salinity profiles) and satellite data into an ocean circulation model. M aps provided by Fabienne Gaillard, www.coriolis.eu.org/default.htm. ICES C o o p erativ e R esearch R eport N o. 291 ICES R ep o rt o n O cean C lim ate 2007 Mixed layer depth, 20G3.'02 3. THE NORTH ATLANTIC ATMOSPHERE THE OF 3.1 North Atlantic O scillation OCEAN THE CAN NAO, ATMOSPHERIC RESPOND QUICKLY TO PARTI CULARLY CONDITIONS IN THE WINTER AFFECT TH E STATE WHEN OCEAN SO I N T E N S E L Y T H A T T H E E F F E C T S ARE FELT T H R O U C H O U T » 'W Mixed layer depth, 2Q04-02 Mixed layer depth, 2005,'02 V. M Mixed layer depth, 2007.'02 The N o rth A tlantic O scillation (NAO) is a p a tte rn of atm ospheric variability th a t h as a significant im pact o n oceanic conditions. It affects w indspeed, precipitation, evaporation, an d the exchange of h e a t b e tw e e n ocean an d atm o sp h ere, an d its effects are m o st strongly felt in w inter. The N A O index is a sim ple device u sed to describe th e state of the NAO. It is a m easu re of th e stren g th of the sea level air p ressure grad ien t b e tw e e n Iceland and th e A zores. W h e n th e N A O index is positive, there is a stre n g th e n in g of th e Icelandic low -pressure system an d th e A zores h ig h -p ressu re system . This p roduces stro n g er m id -latitu d e w esterly w inds, w ith colder a n d drier conditions over th e w estern N o rth A tlantic an d w arm er an d w e tte r conditions in the e a stern N o rth A tlantic. W h en th e N A O index is negative, th ere is a reduced p ressure gradient, an d th e effects te n d to be reversed. T H E F O L L O W I N G YEAR. S O M E R E G I O N S , S U C H AS T H E N O R T H W E S T A T L A N TI C A N D T H E N O R T H SEA, ARE M O R E RESPONSIVE TO THE NAO THAN OTHER REGIONS, S U C H AS T H E R O CK AL L T R O U G H . H O W E V E R , T H E N A O IS ON NOT THE OCEAN ONLY, OR VARI ABILITY. W HOLE, THE EVEN THE OVER MAIN, THE CONTROL ATLANTIC N A O STILL O N L Y A C C O U N T S AS T H I R D O F T H E T O T A L V A R I A N C E I N W I N T E R S E A LEVEL PRESSURE. TH E CIRCULATION CHAOTIC MEANS NATURE OF A T M O S P H E R I C THAT EVEN DURING PERIODS OF ST R O N G L Y POSITIVE O R NEGATIVE N A O WINTE RS , T H E A T M O S P H E R I C C I R C U L A T I O N TYPICALLY EXHI BI TS SIGNIFICANT LOCAL DEPARTURES FROM THE IDEALIZED NA O PATTERN. T here are several slightly different versions of the N A O index calculated by clim ate scientists. The H urrell w in ter (DJF) N A O index is m o st com m only u sed a n d h as particular relevance to the eastern N o rth A tlantic. Follow ing a lo n g perio d of increase, from an extrem e an d p ersisten t negative p h ase in th e 1960s to a m ost extrem e an d p ersisten t positive p h ase d u rin g th e late 1980s a n d early 1990s, the H urrell N A O index u n d e rw e n t a large an d rapid decrease d u rin g th e w in te r p reced in g 1996. Since th e n , the H urrell N A O index h as b e e n fairly w eak an d a less-useful descriptor of atm ospheric conditions. In w in te r 2007, th e N A O index w as strongly positive. 12/13 Figure 6. The Hurrell winter (DJF) N AO index fo r thepasi 100 years with a two-year running mean applied (leftpanel) and the current decade (right panel). Data source: http:// www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/jhurrell/ indices.html. 5 4 3 2 1 0 •1 •2 •3 ■4 •5 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 CM » 'W Y ear Figure 5. M aps o f North Atlantic winter (February) mixed-layer depths, 2002-2007. These products are generated by the Coriolis Operational Oceanography Centre, which compiles in situ data (including Argo float temperature and salinity profiles) and satellite data into an ocean circulation model. M aps provided by Fabienne Gaillard, www.coriolis.eu.org/default.htm. A FOR ONE- CM <N CO -rf LO CM CM CN CN Y ear 30 [>. ICES C o o p erativ e R esearch R eport N o. 291 ICES R ep o rt o n O cean C lim ate 2007 The N A O index is an in d icato r of th e grad ien t of SLP, b u t m ap s can provide m ore in fo rm atio n ab o u t th e w indfield. W inter con d itio ns d o m in ate the ocean pro p erties in particular; th erefore, Figure 7a show s m ap s of SLP in w in te r (D ecem ber/ January/F ebruary/M arch (D JFM )).The to p p a n e l in Figure 7a show s th e w in te r SLP av eraged over 30 years, 1971-2000. The d o m in a n t featu res ("action centres") are th e Iceland Low (the p u rp le p atc h situ ated so u th w est of Iceland) a n d th e A zores H ig h (the orange p atch w est of G ibraltar). Figure 7b. NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1000mb Scalar Wind Speed ( m /s ) Composite Mean NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Sea Level Pressure (mb) Composite Mean NOAA /ESRL P h y s ic a l S c i e n c e s D ivision N O AA /ESRL P h y s ic a l S c i e n c e s D iv isio n Winter (DJFM) surface windspeed. Top panel shows surface windspeed averaged over 30 years, 1971-2000. The bottom panel shows the winter 2007 anomaly in surface windspeed. Images provided by the N O A A / ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, Colorado, available at www. cdc.noaa.gov/ Dec to Mar: 1971 to 2000 N O R T H ATLANTIC M EAN W I N D S WERE MOSTLY S T R O N G E R T H A N 9 98 10 0 2 ' 1006 ' 1o"lO ' 10U ' 10*18 ' 1022 1026 1 I 1 M i 1 1 1 A 1 h 1 NORMAL. NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Sea Level Pressure (mb) Composite Mean NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1000mb Scalar Wind Speed (m /s ) Composite Anomaly 1968—1996 elimo NOAA /ESRL P h y s ic a l S c i e n c e s D ivision The m iddle p an el in Figure 7a show s th e m e a n SLP for w in ter 2007 (D ecem ber 2006, Jan u ary -M arch 2007), an d th e b o tto m p an el show s th e 2007 w in ter SLP anom aly - th e difference b e tw e e n th e to p an d m iddle panels. In w in te r 2007, b o th th e Iceland Low an d th e A zores H ig h w ere stro n g er th a n n o rm al (low er p ressu re in th e Iceland Low an d h ig h er pressure in th e A zores H igh). Also, th e centre of th e Iceland L ow w as displaced to w ard s th e so u th w est an d C ape Farewell. The stren g th of th e m e a n surface w in d averaged over th e 3 0-year period 1971-2000 is sh o w n in th e u p p e r p an e l of Figure 7b, an d th e low er p an el show s th e an o m aly in w in ter 2007. T hese reanalyses sh o w th a t th e N o rth A tlantic m e a n w in d s w ere stro n g er th a n no rm al, associated w ith the stre n g th e n in g of th e SLP p a tte rn , centred on a b a n d from N ew fo u n d la n d across to th e Bay of Biscay an d th e E nglish C h an n el a n d into the so u th e rn Baltic. THE FIGURES SHOW LEVEL P R E S S U R E “ GRADIE NT” ) ISOBARS, W IT H CONTOURS (ISOBARS). THE WIND BLOWS OF CONSTANT GEOSTROPHIC PARALLEL LOWER PRESSURE TO TH E WITH N O AA /ESRL P h y s ic a l S c i e n c e s D ivision Dec to Mar: 2007 9 98 ■ i 10 0 2 i i 1006 i i i 1010 i i 1014 Dec to Mar: 2007 to 2007 minus 1971 to 2000 i i 1018 u 1022 1026 W 'm ■ ! ? 1 -h 1 1 A 1 h 1 Below. View from the RV"Celtic Explorer". Image courtesy o f G. Nolan, M arine Institute, Ireland. NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Sea Level Pressure (mb) Composite Mean NOAA /ESRL P h y s ic a l S c i e n c e s D ivision SEA (OR THE LEF T. T H E CLOSER TH E ISOBARS, TH E S T R O N G E R TH E W I N D . Dec to Mar: 2007 to 2007 minus 1971 to 2000 m -1 2 i i -8 i i -4 i i 0 i i 4 i i 8 i i 12 Figure 7a. W inter (DJFM) sea level pressure (SLP) fields. The top panel shows SLP averaged over 30 years, 1971-2000. M iddle panel shows mean SLP in winter 2007 (December 2006, January-March 2007). Bottom panel shows the winter 2007 SLP anomaly, the difference between the top and middle panels. Images provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, Colorado, available at www.cdc.noaa.gov/. ICES C o o p erativ e R esearch R eport N o. 291 ICES R ep o rt o n O cean C lim ate 2007 NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Surface air (C) Composite Mean 3.2 North Atlantic surface air temperature NOAA/ESRL Physical S c ie n c e s Division N o rth A tlantic w in te r m e a n surface air tem p e ra tu re s are sh o w n in Figure 8 . The 1971-2000 m e a n conditions (Figure 8 , to p panel) sh o w w arm tem p eratu res p e n e tra tin g far to th e n o rth on th e east side of the N o rth A tlantic a n d N ordic Seas, caused by n o rth w ard m o v em e n t of w arm oceanic w ater. The m iddle p an el in Figure 8 show s th e conditions in w in ter (DJFM) 2007, a n d th e b o tto m p an e l show s th e difference b e tw e e n th e tw o. In w in te r 2007, th e central N o rth A tlantic a n d N o rw eg ian Sea surface air tem p eratu res w ere n e a r no rm al. In contrast, surface air tem p eratu re s over m u ch of th e L ab rad o r Sea, N o rth Sea, B arents Sea, G reen lan d Sea, an d Irm inger B asin w ere m o re th a n 1°C w a rm e r th a n n o rm al in 2007. The exceptions are th e oran g e/ red areas, w hich sh o w w a rm e r-th a n -n o rm a l conditions (by 6-10°C ); this is th e resu lt of sea-ice edges retreatin g in the n o rth e rn L ab rad o r Sea an d n o rth e a st of Svalbard. The b o tto m p an e l in Figure 8 also show s th a t it w as a w arm w in te r over m o st lan d areas su rro u n d in g th e n o rth e rn N o rth A tlantic a n d its m arginal seas. 4. DETAILED AREA DESCRIPTIONS, PART 1: THE UPPER OCEAN 4.1 Introduction In this section, w e p re se n t tim e-series from m an y su stain ed observations in each area of th e ICES A rea. The general p a tte rn of oceanic circulation in th e u p p e r layers of th e N o rth A tlantic, in relation to th e areas described here, is given in Figure 9. In ad d itio n to tem p eratu re a n d salinity, w e p resen t o th e r indices w h ere th e y are available, such as air-tem p eratu re a n d sea-ice indices. The text sum m arizes the regional context of th e sections and stations, n o tin g any significant recen t events. Dec to Mor: 1971 to 2000 ^ 6 ■ - k ■ -I ■ - | 5 ■ -là ■ j 5 ■ I ■ 1 In places, th e seasonal cycle h as b e e n rem oved from a dataset, eith er by calculating th e average seasonal cycle d u rin g 1971-2000 or by draw ing on o th er sources, such as regional clim atology datasets. S m o o th ed versions of m o st tim e-series are included u sin g a "loess sm o o th er", a locally w eig h ted regression w ith a tw o- or five-year w indow . In som e areas, d ata are sam pled regularly en o u g h to allow a good description of th e seaso nal cycle. W here this is possible, m o n th ly d ata from 2007 are p re se n te d an d co m pared w ith th e average seasonal conditions an d statistics. 1 A 1 A 1 I f NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Surface aîr (C) Composite Mean NOAA/ESRL Physical S cien ce s Division S U R F A C E AIR M ost stan d ard sections or stations are rep eated an n u ally or m ore frequently. O ften, th e tim e-series p re se n te d here have b e e n extracted from larger datasets and ch o sen as indicators of th e conditions in a particular area. W here appropriate, d ata are p re se n te d as anom alies to d em o n strate h o w the values com pare w ith th e average or "n o rm al" co nditions (usually th e lo n g -te rm m e a n of each p a ra m e te r d u rin g 1971-2000). For d atasets th a t do n o t extend as far back as 1971, th e average co nditions have b e e n calculated from th e start of th e d ataset up to 2 0 0 0 . 1 6 /1 7 TEM PERATURE OVER M U CH OF THE 0Z N O R D I C SEAS A N D WESTERN Dec to Mar: 2007 NORTH ATLANTIC WAS MORE -3 0 -2 5 -2 0 -1 5 -1 0 -5 0 5 10 - 15 20 T H A N 1 ° C W A R M ER THAN NORMAL. NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Surface air (C) Composite Anomaly 1 9 6 8 -1 9 9 6 elimo NOAA/ESRL Physical S c ie n c e s Division Figure 8. Winter (DJFM) surface air temperature fields. The top panel shows surface air temperature averaged over 30 years, 19712000. The middle panel shows temperatures in winter 2007 (December 2006, January to March 2007). The bottom panel shows winter 2007 surface air temperature anomaly, 1971-2000, the difference between the top and middle panels. Images provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, Colorado, available at www.cdc. noaa.gov/. Dec to Mar: 2007 to 2007 minus 1971 to 2000 ■ -4 i i i -1 i 1 i i 4 i i 6 i i 8 i m 11 •> Figure 9. Schematic o f the general circulation o f the upper ocean (0-1000 m) in the North Atlantic in relation to the numbered areas presented below. The blue arrows indicate the movement o f the cooler waters o f the Subpolar Gyre. The red arrows indicate the movement o f the warmer waters o f the Subtropical Gyre. ICES C o o p erativ e R esearch R eport N o. 291 ICES R ep o rt on O cean C lim ate 2007 4.2 Area 1 - West Greenland W E S T G R E E N L A N D LI ES A T T H E N O R T H E R N B O U N D A R Y OF THE SUBPOLAR GYRE A N D IS T H U S SUBJECT TO CLIMATIC VARI AT IONS W I T H I N T H IS GYRE. TH E WEST GREENLAND SLOPE CURRENT OFF WEST NORTHWARDS FOLLOWS GREENLAND THROUGH BANK STATION 4, THE M O F WATER, THE WARM COMPONENT AND THE BANK SLOPE IS G O V E R N E D OF THE FYLLAS IN M O S T L Y BY WEST GREENLAND A t Fyllas Bank, th e 2007 subsurface tem p eratu res w ere high, sim ilar to th e w arm 1960s, b u t low er th a n a u tu m n 2003, w h e n te m p e ra tu re s w ere 2.69°C above norm al. WATER EXTENDS FARTHER ( E.G. 1 9 8 3 , 1992, OFFSHORE, AND 2002). DESOLATION LOCATED STATION FARTHER 3 HAS 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.0 1 T e m p eratu re °C 3.5 D ata P rovider: In stitu t fü r S e e fisch ere i - G e rm a n y - Institu te fo r S e a Fish e rie s Ref: IC E S R e po rt on O cea n C lim a te 2007 OFFSHORE, B R I N G I N G COLDE R WATER TO STATI ON 4 CAPE Figure 12. Aren 1 - W est Greenland. Teniperatnre (npper panel) and salinity (lower panel) a t 50 m at Cape Desolation Station 3. 7.0 350 C U R R E N T ( B E L O W 1 5 0 M ) . I N S O M E YEARS, S H A L L O W SHELF 7.5 4.5 TRAVELS DAVI S STRAI T. T H E LOCATED O N ABOUT 9 0 0 CONTINENTAL W est G reen lan d lies w ith in a n area th a t norm ally experiences w a rm er con d itio n s w h e n th e N A O index is negative. D espite a positive N A O w in ter 2007 index, air te m p e ra tu re cond itio ns aro u n d G ree n la n d co n tin u ed to be w a rm e r th a n norm al; m e a n air tem p e ra tu re s at N u u k sh o w positive an om alies (+0.8°C). 348 346 A 3000-M-DEEP WATER C O L U M N A N D SA MPLES TH E WEST G R E E N L A N D 34.4 CU RR ENT A N D TH E DEEP BO U N D A RY CURR E NT OF THE L A B R A D O R SEA. 3 42 Data Provider Danish Meteorological Institute - Copenhagen and Seewetteramt - Hamburg Salinity Ref: IC E S R e p o rt on O cea n C lim a te 2007 Figure 10. Area 1 - West Greenland. Annual mean air temperature observed at Nuuk. 340 1980 1 1985 1990 1995 Y ear 2000 2005 0 ■1 ■2 18/19 4.3 Area 2 - N orthw est Atlantic: Scotian S h elf and the N ew foundland and Labrador S helf ■3 ■4 — ■— T e m p e ra tu re °C HORIZONTAL MODIFIED AND VERTICAL BY D I F F U S I O N , GRADIENTS MIXING, THAT AR E CURRENTS, AND SHELF TOPOGRAPHY. 5-yr S m o o th ed D ata -5'— 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 Scotian Shelf Y ear 6 Figure 11. Area 1 - West Greenland. Fyllas Bank Station 4 autumn temperature (upper panel) and salinity (lower panel), 0-200 m. THE CO NTINENTAL SHELF OFF THE COAST OF NOVA 5 S C O T I A IS C H A R A C T E R I Z E D BY C O M P L E X T O P O G R A P H Y CONSISTING 4 OF MANY OF FSH O R E SHALLOW BANKS A N D D E E P M I D - S H E L F B A S I N S . IT IS S E P A R A T E D F R O M 3 THE SOUTHERN LAURENTIAN 2 MAINE 1 — 1— T e m p e ra tu re °C 5-yr S m o o th e d D ata 0 NEWFOUNDLAND CHANNEL AND TO THE SOUTHWEST. IS D O M I N A T E D SHELF BY THE BORDERS THE GULF OF SURFACE BY A G E N E R A L CIRCULATION FLOW TO WARD S THE S O U T H W E S T , I N T E R R U P T E D BY C L O C K W I S E M O V E M E N T A R O U N D T H E B A N KS A N D A N T I C L O C K W I SE M O V E M E N T A R O U N D T HE BASINS, WIT H THE S T R E N G T H S VARYING D ata P ro vide r: In stitu t fü r S ee fisch e re i - G e rm a n y - Institu te fo r S ea F ish e rie s Ref: IC E S R e p o rt on O cea n C lim a te 2 00 7 SEASONALLY. 345 — ■— Salinity 5-yr S m o o th e d D ata 340 HYDROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS ON THE SCOTIAN The a m o u n t of sea ice on th e S cotian Shelf in 2007, as m easu red by th e area of ice seaw ards of C abot Strait b e tw e e n N ova Scotia an d N ew fo u n d lan d from January to April, w as 18 400 k m 2 b elow th e lo n g -te rm m e a n coverage of 39 000 k m 2. This is an increase from th e 2006 value of 1850 k m 2, b u t is still substantially less th a n th e 2003 cover w hich w as th e second h ig h est in the 39-year record. S H E L F A R E D E T E R M I N E D BY H E A T T R A N S F E R B E T W E E N THE OCEAN GULF 335 OF SHELF, AND ST AND ATMOSPHERE, LA WR ENC E AND EXCHANGE 330 CYCLES OFF, AND TEMPERATURE 1970 1980 1990 Y ear 2000 ARE MODIFIED PRECIPITATION, AND AND INFLOW THE WITH WATERS. WATER PROPER TIES 325 '1960 In 2007, a n n u al m e a n air tem p eratu res over th e S cotian Shelf, rep resen ted by Sable Island observations, w ere norm al, only 0.1°C below th e lo n g -te rm m e a n (based o n 1971-2000 m ean values); th is is a decline of 1.5°C from 2006. W est of Sable Island, th e air tem p eratu re an o m aly w as -0.2°C over th e eastern G ulf of M aine. HAVE FROM OFFSHORE SLOPE LARGE S E A S O N A L BY F R E S H - W A T E R MELTING SALINITY THE NEWFOUNDLAND OF EXHIBIT SEA RUN­ I CE. STRONG T opography sep arates th e n o rth e a ste rn Scotian Shelf from th e rest of th e shelf. In the n o rth east, th e b o tto m te n d s to be covered by relatively cold w aters (1-4°C ), w h ereas the b asins in th e central an d so u th w e ste rn regions typically have b o tto m w ater tem p eratu res of 8-10°C . The origin of th e latter is th e offshore slope w aters, w h ereas in th e ICES C o o p erativ e R esearch R eport N o. 291 ICES R ep o rt on O cean C lim ate 2007 Figure 14. n o rth e ast, th e w ater com es principally from th e G ulf of St Law rence. The in te ra n n u a l variability of th e tw o w a ter m asses differs. M easu rem en ts of te m p e ra tu re s at 100 m at th e M isaine B ank statio n capture th e ch an g es in th e n o rth ea st. T hey reveal co o ler-th a n -n o rm a l con d itio n s in 2007 by 0.3°C, a decrease of 0.9°C from above n o rm a l conditions in 2006. In E m erald Basin, te m p e ra tu re s in 2007 w ere 1°C b elo w n o rm a l at 100 m , a decrease of ap proxim ately 1.8°C from 2006. T here w as a large d ecrease of 2.2°C at 250 m to a n n u a l values n early 1.9°C b elo w norm al. The w ater m ass characteristics in 2007 for d e p th s g reater th a n 100 m w ere very sim ilar to th o se in 1998 w h e n L ab rad o r Slope w ater m oved in to th e d eep in n e r shelf basins. In 2007, th o u g h , th e d e ep e st w aters (-2 5 0 m) w ere ab o u t 0.2°C w a rm er a n d 0.3 saltier th a n in 1998. T e m p e ra tu re A nom aly °C 2 5-yr S m o o th e d D ata 1 0 Area 2 - N orthw est Atlantic: Scotian Shelf. Near-bottom temperatnre anomalies (npper panel) and salinity anomalies (lower panel) In the northeastern Scotian S h e lf (M isaine Bank, 100 m). -1 -2 D a ta P ro vide r: D e p a rtm e n t o f F ish e rie s a nd O ce a n s - C a na d a Ref: IC E S R e p o rt on O cea n C lim a te 2007 THE A M O U N T O F SEA — ■— Salinity A nom aly ICE O N T H E S C O T I A N 5-yr S m o o th e d D ata S H E L F W A S WELL B EL O W 0.5 N O R M A L IN 2 O O 7 . 0.0 A n n u al SST anom alies varied a b o u t 0.3°C over th e eastern , 0.4°C over th e central, a n d -1.5°C over th e w e ste rn Scotian Shelf d u rin g 2006. The L urcher Shoal area w est of N ova Scotia h a d an a n n u a l an o m aly of -1°C a n d th e Bay of L undy an an o m aly of 0.4°C. T hese are d ecreases of 1.4°C to 2.3°C from th e ab o v e-n o rm al values of 2006. -0.5 i 945 1955 1965 1975 Y e ar 1985 1995 2005 2 0 /2 1 D ata P rovider: D e p a rtm e n t o f F ish e rie s and O ce a n s - C a na d a Ref: IC E S R e p o rt on O cea n C lim a te 2 00 7 5.0 60 r Figure 13. Aren 2 - N orthw est Atlantic: Scotian Shelf. M o n th ly m eans o f lee area seawards o f Cabot Strait (npper panel) and filtered air temperatnre anom alies at Sable Island on the Scotian S h e lf (lower panel). Figure 15. A rea (1 0 0 0 0 nT) Area 2 - N orthw est Atlantic: Scotian Shelf. Near-bottom temperatnre anomalies (npper panel) and salinity anomalies (lower panel) In the central Scotian S h e lf (Emerald Basin, 2 50 m). T e m p e ra tu re A nom aly°C 50 5-yr S m o o th e d D ata 2.5 40- 0.0 30 20 -2.5 100^ 1965 1975 1985 Y ear 1995 2005 -5.0 D a ta P ro vide r: B IO - B e d fo rd In stitu te o f O c e a n o g ra p h y - F ish e rie s a nd O ce a n s C a n a d a Ref: IC E S R e p o rt on O cea n C lim a te 2007 D ata P rovider: D e p a rtm e n t o f F ish e rie s and O ce a n s - C a na d a Ref: IC E S R e p o rt on O cea n C lim a te 2 00 7 2.0 — •— Salinity A nom aly 0.6 5-yr S m o o th e d D ata 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.2 -0.4 — 1— Air T e m p e ra tu re A nom aly°C 5-yr S m o o th ed D ata - 2.0 i 910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 Year 1970 1980 1990 2000 -0.6 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 Year 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 ICES C o o p erativ e R esearch R eport N o. 291 ICES R ep o rt on O cean C lim ate 2007 Newfoundland and Labrador Shelf THIS REGION IS S I T U A T E D ON THE O F T H E L A BR A DO R SEA, S T R E T C H I N G STRAIT TO DOMINATED CHANNELS TROUGHS THE SOUTHERN BY OR SHALLOW SADDLES, NEAR DOMINATED BY THE THE how ever, it in creased significantly d u rin g spring, ex ten d in g th e ice seaso n into June for th e first tim e in several years. WESTERN FROM GRAND BANKS, AND BANK CROSS-SHELF DEEP COAST. AND MARGINAL CIRCULATION SOUTH-FLOWING IS LABRADOR C U R R E N T B R I N G I N G C O L D , FR E SH WATE RS T O G E T H E R WITH S E A I CE A N D ICEBERGS FROM THE NORTH TO 3 Figure 17. Area 2 - N orthw est Atlantic: N ew foundland and Labrador Shelf. A n n u a l air temperature anom alies at Cartw right on the Labrador coast. 2 SIDE HUDSON Data Provider: Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Centre - Canada Ref: ICES Report on Ocean Climate 2007 A t th e sta n d a rd m o n ito rin g site off eastern N ew fo u n d la n d (S tation 27), th e d ep th -av erag ed a n n u al w ate r te m p e ra tu re decreased from the record h ig h o bserved in 2006 to a b o u t no rm al. Surface te m p e ratu res at S tatio n 27 also decreased from the record h ig h observed in 2006 to just slightly above n o rm al, w h e re as b o tto m tem p e ratu res rem ain ed above n o rm a l for th e 12 th consecutive year. 1 0 ■1 ■2 ■ 5-yr S m o o th ed D ata -3'— 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 Y ear S O U T H E R N AREAS OF TH E G R A N D BANKS. HYDROGRAPHIC BY T H E CONDITIONS STRENGTH OF THE AR E DETERMINED WINTER ATMOSPHERIC C I R C U L A T I O N O V E R T H E N O RTH W E S T A T L A N T I C ( N A O ) , A D V E C T I O N B Y T H E L A B R A D O R C U RRE N T , C R O S S - S H E L F EXCHANGE WITH WARMER CONTINENTAL SLOPE WATER, A N D B O T T O M T O P O G R A P H Y . S U P E R I M P O S E D A R E L A R G E S E A S O N A L A N D I N T E R A N N U AL VARI ATI O N S IN S O L AR H E A T I N P U T , SEA-ICE CO V ER , A N D S T O R M FORCED THE MIXING. SHELF STRONG THE E XHI BI TS RESULTING LARGE HORIZONTAL AND WATER ANNUAL MASS CYCLES ON WITH VERTICAL TEMPER AT URE A N D SALINITY GR AD IE NT S. Air T e m p e ra tu re A nom aly°C 1980 2000 1990 A ro b u st index of o cean clim ate conditions in eastern C a n ad ian w aters is th e exten t of th e cold in term ed iate layer (CIL) of <0°C w a te r overlying the c o n tin en tal shelf. This w inter-co o led w ater rem ains tra p p ed b e tw e e n th e seasonally h e a te d u p p e r layer a n d th e w a rm er shelf-slope w ate r th ro u g h o u t su m m e r a n d au tu m n . D u rin g th e 1960s, w h e n the N A O w as w ell b elo w n o rm al a n d h a d th e low est value ever in th is century, th e v olum e of CIL w ater w as at a m in im u m and, d u rin g th e h ig h N A O years of th e early 1990s, th e CIL v olum e reach ed n ear­ record h ig h values. D u rin g 2007, th e CIL rem ain ed b elo w n o rm al o n th e easte rn N ew fo u n d lan d Shelf for th e 13th consecutive year. Figure IS . Area 2 - N orthw est Atlantic: N ew foundland and Labrador Shelf. A n n u a l depth-averaged N ew foundland S h e lf temperature anom alies (top panel), salinity anom alies (middle panel), and spatial extent o f cold Intermediate layer (CLL; bottom panel). T e m p e ra tu re A nom aly °C The R ogers N o rth A tlantic O scillation index for 2007 w as slightly above n o rm a l (the R ogers N A O index offers a b e tte r co m p ariso n w ith conditions in th e w e ste rn N o rth A tlantic th a n th e H urrell w in te r N A O index). As a result, Arctic outflow to th e N o rth w e st A tlantic w as stro n g er th a n in 2006, resu ltin g in a b ro ad -scale cooling th ro u g h o u t th e N o rth w est A tlantic from W est G ree n la n d to Baffin Island a n d to L ab rad o r a n d N e w fo u n d lan d . A n n u al air te m p e ra tu res re m a in ed above n o rm al at L ab rad o r (0.7°C at C artw right) a n d N e w fo u n d lan d (0.3°C at St John's), significant d ecreases over th e record h ig h s of 2006. S ea-ice exten t o n th e N e w fo u n d lan d a n d L ab rad o r Shelf for 2007 w as b elo w average for th e 13th consecutive year; The near-bottom therm al habitat cooled significantly in so u th e rn regions b u t w a rm ed in areas n o rth of th e G ran d B anks d u rin g a u tu m n , w h e n b o tto m tem p e ra tu re s w ere u p to 2°C above th e lo n g -term m e a n in m an y areas. 5-yr S m o o th e d D ata -1.0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L D ata P rovider: N o rth w e st A tla n tic F ish e rie s C e n tre - C a na d a Ref: IC E S R e p o rt on O cea n C lim a te 2 00 7 0.50 In general, w ater te m p e ra tu re s on the N ew fo u n d la n d a n d L ab rad o r Shelf cooled from the record h ig h observed in 2006, b u t re m a in ed above n o rm al in m o st areas, co n tin u in g th e w a rm e r-th a n n o rm al con d itio n s experienced since th e m id - to late 1990s. Shelf w ater salinities, w h ich w ere low er th a n n o rm a l th ro u g h o u t m o st of th e 1990s, have in creased to above n o rm al values d u rin g th e p ast six years, alth o u g h th ere w as considerable local variability. 0.25 0.00 -0.25 — ■— S u m m e r Salinity A nom aly 5-yr S m o o th ed D ata -0.50 1950 1960 D a ta P ro vide r: N o rth w e s t A tla n tic F ish e rie s C e n tre - C ana d a Ref: IC E S R e p o rt on O cea n C lim a te 2007 Figure 16. Area 2 - Northwest Atlantic: Newfoundland and Labrador Shelf. M onthly sea-ice areas off Newfoundland and Labrador between 4 5°N and 55°N. 1 1970 1980 Y ear 1990 2000 D ata P ro vide r: N o rth w e s t A tla n tic F ish e rie s C e n tre - C a na d a Ref: IC E S R e p o rt on O cea n C lim a te 2 00 7 3.5 50 W inter S e a lee / y e a (10 0 0 0 0 km ) 3.0 S pring S e a IceÁ reci (10 0 0 0 0 km2) 40 2.5 30 2.0 20 10 N ew foundland CIL A rea (km ) 0.5 L ab rad o r CIL A rea (km2) 1970 1980 1990 Y e ar 2000 0 '— 1950 1960 1970 1980 Y e ar 1990 2000 ICES C o o p erativ e R esearch R eport N o. 291 ICES R ep o rt on O cean C lim ate 2007 4.4 Area 2b - Labrador Sea C O N D I T I O N S HAVE BEEN THE UPPER LEVELS OF Data Provider: BIO - Bedford Institute of Oceanography - Fisheries and Oceans Canada Ref: ICES Report on Ocean Climate 2007 M I L D E R IN R E CE N T YEARS. THE LABRADOR SEA HAVE Figure 20. Area 2b - Labrador Sea. A n n u a l mean sea suiface temperature da ta from the west-central Labrador Sea (56.5°N 52.5°W ). Data obtained from the H a d L S S T l.l Global Sea Surface Temperature dataset, UK Meteorological Office, H adley Centre. B E CO M E W AR M E R A N D M OR E SALINE AS HEAT LOSSES TH E L A BR A DO R S EA IS L OC AT E D B E T W E E N G R E E N L A N D T O T H E A T M O S P H E R E HAVE D E C R E A S E D AN D AT LAN T I C AND WATERS HAVE BE CO M E I NC RE AS ING LY D O M I N A N T . THE LABRADOR COLD, L O W - S A L I N I TY CI RCLE THE COAST OF WATERS LABRADOR SEA IN EASTERN OF AN CANADA. POLAR ORIGIN ANTICLOCKWISE C U R R E N T SYSTEM TH AT IN CL UD ES BOTH TH E N O R T H FLOWING WEST GREENLAND CURRENT E A S T E R N S I D E A N D T H E S O U T H -F L O W I N G ON THE LABRADOR C U R R E N T O N T H E WE ST E RN SIDE. WARM A N D SALINE ATLANTIC WATERS O R I G I N A T I N G IN T H E S U B T R O P I C S FLOW LABRADOR THE NORTHWARDS GREENLAND INTO SIDE THE AND BECOME SEA COLDER IN LABRADOR SEA AND HYDROGRAPHIC C O N D I T I O N S O N I N T E R A N N U A L Tl M E - S C A L E S D E P E N D O N T H E VARIABLE I N F L U E N C E S O F H E AT L O SS T O T H E A T M O S P H E R E , H E AT A N D SALT G A I N FR OM ATLANTIC WATERS, FROM AND FRESH-WATER GAIN 5-yr S m o o th ed D ata Y ear ON F R E S H E R AS T H E Y C I R C U L A T E . CHANGES T em p eratu re C The upper 150 m of the west-central Labrador Sea has warmed by ~1°C and increased in salinity by -0.1 since the early 1990s. Conditions in 2007 remained warm and saline, but slightly cooler than in 2005-2006. The 2007 annual mean SST in the west-central Labrador Sea was about 0.6°C warmer than normal. Although 2007 was noticeably cooler than the previous four years, it continues a series of 14 consecutive years that have been warmer than normal. D a ta P rovider: B IO - B ed ford Institu te o f O ce a n o g ra p h y Ref: IC E S R e p o rt on O cea n C lim a te 2007 12D Figure 21. — M ean — 2 0 0 7 T e m p e ra tu re — S ta n d a rd Deviation M ax/M in / ' 100 Area 2b - Labrador Sea. M o n th ly sea surface temperature data frvm the west-central Labrador Sea (56.5°N 52.5°W ). Data obtained from the H a d L S S T l.l Globa! Sea Surface Temperature d ataset UK Meteorological Office, H adley Centre. MELTING AR C T I C S E A ICE. A S E Q U E N C E O F S E V E R E W I N T E R S I N 6.0 T H E EA RL Y 1 9 9 0 S L E D T O D E E P C O N V E C T I O N P E A K I N G I N 1 9 9 3 - 1 9 9 4 T H A T F I L L E D T H E U P P E R 2 KM O F T H E 4 .0 WATE R C O L U M N W I T H C O L D A N D F R ES H WATER. 2.0 A verag in g P eriod: 1 97 1-20 0 0 0.0 J Figure 19. Area 2b - Labrador Sea. Potential temperature (upper panel) and salinity (lower panel) values fo r 0-150 m depth from fo u r stations in the west-central Labrador Sea (centred at 56.7°N 52.5°W). Estimates o f seasonal changes based on climatology have been removed from these spring/early summer measurements. F M A M J J A M onth S O 2 4 /2 5 N D 5.0 4.5 4.5 Area 2c - M id-Atlantic Bight 4.0 3.5 THE — *— T e m p eratu re °C 3.0 HYDROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS S L O P E SEA, T H E M I D - A T L A N T I C B I G H T , A N D T H E G U L F OF MAINE FROM THE 2.5 D a ta P ro vide r: B IO - B ed ford Institu te o f O ce a n o g ra p h y - F ish e rie s a nd O ce a n s C a na d a Ref: IC E S R e p o rt on O cea n C lim a te 2 00 7 IN THE WESTERN AND THE HAVE BEEN DEPEND UPON THE SUPPLY LA BR A DO R SEA, A L O N G CONTINENTAL MONITORED BATHYTHERMOGRAPH SLOPE. BY ( XBT) G E O R G E S B A N K WATE RS HAVE BEEN W A R M E R BUT FRESHER SIN CE 1 9 9 0 . THESE REGULAR AND WATERS THE SHELF OF BOTH WATERS EXPENDABLE SURFACE SALINITY Salinity OBSERVATIONS FROM COMMERCIAL AND FISHING RUNS BETWEEN 34.80 VESSELS SI NC E NEW 34.75 JERSEY TR AVE RSES T H E 34.70 1978. AND GULF ONE SECTION BERMUDA OF MAINE, AND THE EAST O F OTHER BOSTON. H Y D R O G R A P H I C C O N D I T I O N S ARE A L S O M O N I T O R E D O N G E O R G E S BANK. 34.65 34.60 34.55 1990 2000 1995 Year 2005 th e p rogram m e, to 2007.There are no obvious tren d s in G ulf of M aine tem p eratu res. Surface salinity has re tu rn e d to m ore-av erag e conditions over the last year. The slope w aters of th e M id-A tlantic Bight have rem ain ed generally fresh over the last th ree years, w h ereas th ere are no obvious tren d s in SST. Figure 23 show s tem p eratu re anom alies from XBTs ta k e n in the G ulf of M aine since 1978, th e start of The G eorges B ank surface observations (0-30 m) com e from a w ide region covering th e Bank. Figure 24a show s tem p eratu re an d salinity anom alies. The anom alies are in original units relative to th e m ean for 1978-1987. N o te th e co n tin u ed w a rm e r-th a n n o rm al tem p eratu res; th is is quite co n sisten t w ith th e XBT values. W h at is p e rh a p s m ore surprising are th e rath e r low surface salinities, nearly 0.5 b elo w th e average for 1978-1987. Indeed, th e w aters have overall b e e n w arm er an d fresher since approxim ately 1990. M ore usually in th e Slope Sea (offshore of th e G ulf of M aine), h ig h salinities accom pany h ig h tem p eratu res an d vice versa. T here is m u ch th a t is still n o t u n d e rsto o d ab o u t th e shelf an d Slope SeaW aters. ICES C o o p erativ e R esearch R eport N o. 291 ICES R ep o rt o n O cean C lim ate 2007 45 N Data Provider: National Marine Fisheries Service - NOAA - USA Ref: ICES Report on Ocean Climate 2007 Figure 22. Area 2c - M id-Atlantic Bight. Temperature and salinity from the Oleander section (New York City to Bermuda). Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies as averaged values from 120-400 km southeast from N ew York City (upper panel); SST anomalies along the transect (middle panel); and sea surface salinity anomalies along the transect (lower panel). Figure 23. Area 2c - Mid-Atlantic Bight. Temperature and salinity in the G ulf o f M aine from the section east o f Boston. The upper panel is a chart showing the area from which expendable bathythermographs (XBT) observations are used to construct the time-series (note the distance scale east from the longitude of Boston). SST anomalies along the transect (middle panel); sea surface salinity anomalies along the transect (lower panel). 2.0 1.5 - 1.0 0.5 - 0.0 -0.5- -1.0 Temperature Anomaly C -1.5- - 5-yr Smoothed Data - 2 .0 1 i J 1975 i i i i i 1980 i i__ 1990 1985 2000 1995 2005 Year 70 VV i: J d .1 I t ! 1 0 C h ..I E i i ' ' ’ !-l s £ > g r . 1 . i g '• < 1 * i l i T m v w m iiia ilu v u k IlM 'I j m d u I m iihbuhm ! 'M ana m * f T l ï V I ' - ' 1 w ï ‘ i 't 1 l : ■ .• i ! I i i S i t i É É I É ! f I r » IWi WiHtog p : i f , 1 ' / 1i * 4 100 .'f f i r n r , ?. I. t * I à H B T U P I A í ¡i iPS-SV 1» 300 Q V V 2» tA Mm» Varie C « r h t u d « i 1 DTH rtuauah TOOT Oaia 66 W ti 1 .¿ ¿ i . » ! ii . i l . I J r* J S Y 'T .,(■ «ÄJWK1 k: 350 • ■ 1 Í-Jé. .Jiiöl 4M WP-H f r. 4 4 -t I « i Ui ■I IJPI1: I • 1 3 l«nü uoi»g p 1 * 3 w, fr.|i. fcqm M*w Yqrii C*y. WWd on 1p7? frvoggh K O 7 «M» 5 z .1 t.ii i { IL 100 15Û i » .iir # ,■ ■ ri~ r 1 n » * 4Ú0 il T , ir 4 Ji* ■ i* *50 Sut bca t altntty wanaanl iatd anomai g* atonfl a Grani««: t a i ùt Bdaicm, bat ad on 1074 ihrew¡pi 2007 daca í t f i'.f : 2» io » Ti. 2007 data 2» ÎM é 3>1 0 » <i ¡.C' i'lJ li® | 4 . Surtac* Be^íiAfuT'éi r a n d a r ï s a d « M m a l t a w i g a e r a n « « « a u «4 B o v e n « a n d «n 1B7B ta n iM «B— r 300 *00 Skiff#» «aánry l Erol arar ad a r o m * « atong 9 n n ( W J Q • ( ' 2 6 /2 7 i 'H J ■' ík \k I ICES C o o p erativ e R esearch R eport N o. 291 ICES R ep o rt o n O cean C lim ate 2007 Da t a Provi der: NO A A Fi s he r i e s N E F S C / O c e a n o g r a p h y Branch Figure 24a. Area 2c - Mid-Atlantic The upper panel is a chart of the northwest portion o f Georges Bank. The 60 m isobath (dashed) and 200 m isobath (solid) are shown. Time-series plots o f 0-30 m averaged temperature anomaly (middle panel) and salinity anomaly (lower panel) at Georges Bank. Ref: I CE S Re por t o n O c e a n Cl i mat e 2 0 0 7 Figure 24b. Area 2c - M id-Atlantic Bight. M onthly surface (0-30 m) temperatures at Georges Bank. ■Mean 42.5 ■2007 Tem perature 16. 0 ■Standard Deviation * - Max/Mi 14. 0 n 12. 0 415 10. 0 8.0 6.0 40.5 4.0 Ave r agi ng Peri od: 1 9 7 7 - 2 0 0 7 M A M J J A S O N D Month 3S.5 ► V o luntary o b s e r v i n g s h i p s M a n y o f t h e d a t a p r e s e n t e d he r e are c o l l e c t e d f r o m c o m m e r c i a l v e s s e l s t h a t v olu n ta r il y m a k e o c e a n m e a s u r e m e n t s a l o n g th e ir jo u r n e y s . T h e r e s u lt s f r o m m o n t h l y s a m p l i n g o f s u r fa c e a nd b o t t o m t e m p e r a t u r e s fo r nearly t h r e e d e c a d e s reveal t h e p o w e r o f s y s t e m a t i c or r e p e a t s a m p l i n g fr o m m e r c h a n t m a r in e v e s s e l s . A n u m b e r o f v e s s e l s are n o w o p e r a t i n g a u t o m a t e d s y s t e m s t o s a m p l e t e m p e r a t u r e a nd s alin it y w h ile un de rw ay. T h e key t o s u c c e s s w it h t h e s e is t o e n s u r e t h a t t h e d ata b e c o m e avail ab le a s s o o n a s t h e v e s s e l m a k e s a port call. T h e r e is a p r e s s i n g n e e d fo r m e r c h a n tm a r i n e - o p t i m i z e d t e c h n i q u e s t o track an d report d a t a f r o m t h e o c e a n in a t im e l y f a s h i o n . 2 28/29 T h e s e c t i o n e a s t o f B o s t o n h a s d e p e n d e d u p o n o b s e r v a t i o n s f r o m v a r io u s v e s s e l s , in c lu d in g t h o s e f r o m E im s k ip a f ela g , Ca ribo u S e a f o o d s , t h e U S C o a s t Gu ard, an d H a n s S p e c k a nd S o n . T heir c o o p e r a t i o n is gr ea tly a p p r e c ia t e d . 1 0 ■1 — *— Temperatur^ Anom aly°C •2 4.6 Area 3 - Icelan d ic Waters 5-yr Smoothed Data THE ICELAND LOW AND THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER G R E E N L A N D . T H E S E C O N D I T I O N S I N T H E A T M O S P H E RE AND Da t a Provi der: N O A A F i s h e r i e s N E F S C / O c e a n o g r a p h y Br anc h Ref: I C E S Re po r t o n O c e a n Cl i mat e 2 0 0 7 ICELAND — *— Salinity Anomaly 5-yr Smoothed Data 0.5 IS AT T H E MEETING PLACE O F W A R M COLD CURRENTS. THESE CONVERGE IN AN AND AREA O F THE SURROUNDING CONDITIONS, CHAIN IN THE S U B M A R I N E R I D G E S ( G R E E N LAN D - S C O T L A N D R I D G E , AND RE YKJ ANES FISH STOCKS. RIDGE, NATURAL KOLBEI N S E Y BARRIERS AGAINST RIDGE) THE THAT MAIN FORM EXPRESSED WATERS, ABUNDANCE OF SEAS AFFECT THROUGH INCLUDING BIOLOGICAL THE FOOD RECRUITMENT COMMERCIALLY IMPORTANT OCEAN C U R R E N T S . T H E W A R M I R M I N G E R C U RRE N T , A B R A N C H 0.0 OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC CU R R E N T (6 - 8 °C), FLOWS F R O M T H E S O U T H , A N D T H E C O L D EAST G R E E N L A N D -0.5 A N D EAST I C E L A N D I C C U R R E N T S ( - 1 ° C T O 2 ° C ) FROM THE 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 Year 2000 2005 THE SEAS OVERFLOW NORTH. AROUND OF DEEP BOTTOM ICELAND COLD ARE WATER FLOW CURRENTS IN PRINCIPALLY TH E FROM THE NORDIC SEAS A N D T H E ARCTIC O C EA N OVER T H E SU B M A R IN E R I D G E S I N T O T H E N O R T H ATLANTI C. HYDROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS IN I C EL A ND IC WATERS ARE G E N E R A L L Y C L O S E L Y RE LATE D T O A T M O S P H E R I C O R C L I M AT I C C O N D I T I O N S IN AN D O V E R TH E C O U N T R Y AND THE SURROUNDING SEAS, MAINLY THROUGH In 2007, mean air temperatures in the south (Reykjavik) and north (Akureyri) were above long­ term averages. During the year, temperature and salinity south and west of Iceland remained high. In spring and autumn, temperatures and salinity of surface layers were around average. Temperature and salinity in February 2008 were again above long-term averages. Salinity and temperature measurements in the East Icelandic Current in spring 2007 were above average. ICES C o o p erativ e R esearch R eport N o. 291 ICES R ep o rt on O cean C lim ate 2007 6 Figure 25. Area 3 - Icelandic waters. Main currents and the location of standard hydrobiological sections in Icelandic waters. Figure 27. 1 5 T e m p e ra tu re °C Area 3 Icelandic waters. Temperature (upper panel) and salinity (lower panel) at 50-150 m depth a t Stations S12-4 In N orth Icelandic waters. 5-yr S m o o th e d D ata 4 : U. 3 2 1 Fx-9 0 le ICELAND D a ta P ro vide r: H a fra n n so kn a sto fn u n in - Icelan d - M a rin e R e se a rch Institu te Ref: IC E S R e p o rt on O cea n C lim a te 2 00 7 352 350 348 346 344 342 — •— Salinity 340 5-yr S m o o th e d D ata 1950 1940 1960 1970 1980 2000 1990 Y e ar 3 0 /3 1 D ata P ro vide r: H a fra n n s o k n a s to fn u n in - Icelan d - M a rin e R e sea rch Institu te Ref: IC E S R e p o rt on O cea n C lim a te 2 00 7 Figure 26. Area 3 - Icelandic waters. M ean annual air temperature at Reykjavik (upper panel) and Akureyri (lower panel). 65 90 Figure 28. 85 Area 3 - Icelandic waters. Temperature (upper panel) and salinity (lowei' panel) between 0 m and 200 m at Station Sb5 In South Icelandic waters. 6D 55 5D 80 45 • 75 4D T e m p e ra tu re °C 5-yr S m o o th e d D ata 35 70 — 1— Air T e m p e ra tu re °C 3D 5-yr S m o o th e d D ata 2 5 1— 1940 65 1950 1960 1970 1980 2000 1990 Y ear D a ta P ro vide r: H a fra n n so kn a sto fn u n in - Icelan d - M a rin e R e sea rch Institu te Ref: IC E S R e p o rt on O cea n C lim a te 2 00 7 D a ta P ro vide r: H a fra n n s o k n a s to fn u n in - Icelan d - M a rin e R e sea rch Institu te Ref: IC E S R e p o rt on O cea n C lim a te 2 00 7 35.30 55 — ■— Salinity 5-yr S m o o th ed D ata 50 35.25 45 35.20 40 35 35.15 3D 25 — 1— Air T e m p e rature °C 2D 1940 35.10 5-yr S m o o th e d D ata 1950 1960 1970 1980 Year 1990 2000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 ICES C oo p erativ e Research R eport N o. 291 Figure 29. Aren 3 - Icelandic waters. Temperature (upper panel) and salinity (lower panel) between 0 m and 50 m In the East Icelandic C urrent (Stations L na2-6). ICES R ep o rt o n O cean C lim ate 2007 5 1 4 T e m p e ra tu re °C 5-yr S m o o th ed D ata 3 2 1 This area is occasionally affected by a strong h ig h salinity signal at th e shelf an d shelf break, a p h e n o m e n o n typically associated w ith the advection of w aters of subtropical origin th ro u g h th e Ib erian Polew ard C urrent. B etw een 1998 and 2001 , fresh en in g w as observed in th e w ater from 0 m to 200 m . In 2002, this tre n d w as reversed d u rin g an event of th e Ib erian Polew ard C urrent. A n increase in salinity w as observed in th e u p p er 200 m in 2003-2006, an d at 300-600 m in 20 0 4 - 0 ■1 D ata P rovider: H a fra n n so kn a sto fn u n in - Iceland - M a rin e R e sea rch Institute Ref: IC E S R e po rt on O cean C lim a te 2007 35D — ■— Salinity 349 5-yr S m o o th ed D ata 34S 34.7 346 A V E R AG ETE M PE RAT UR E O F T H E U P P E R O C E A N REMAINS H I G H IN T H E B I S C A Y REG ION. 2006. The salinity increases w ere also, in part, the result of atm ospheric forcing in th e form ation area of th e eastern N o rth A tlantic C entral W ater (low er precipitation, h ig h er evaporation). A u tu m n 2006 an d w in te r 2007 w ere also characterized by a stro n g episode of the Iberian Polew ard C urrent, an d relatively low p recipitation an d river discharge m a in tain ed h ig h salinity values. 345 34.4 343 342 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 D a ta P rovider: A ZTI and A q u a riu m o f S an S e b a stian (S O G ) Ref: IC E S R e p o rt on O cea n C lim a te 2 007 2000 Y ear 175 Figure 30. 1 Area 4 - B ay o f Biscay and eastern Atlantic. S S T (upper panel) and air temperature (lower panel) at San Sebastian (4 3 °1 8 .5 'N 0 2 V .3 7 W ) . T e m p e ra tu re °C 5-yr S m o o th ed D ata 17D 165 16D 4.7 Area 4 - Bay of Biscay and eastern Atlantic T H E B AY O F B I S C A Y IS L O C A T E D I N T H E E A S T E R N P A R T lo w est value for th is m o n th o n record. This p a tte rn w as cau sed b y th e relatively low air te m p eratu re as w ell as a noticeable re d u ctio n in h o u rs of su n an d th e su b se q u e n t solar rad iatio n (2 2 % low er th a n the average for 1986-2007). 155 15D 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 2000 1990 Y ear O F T H E N O R T H A T L A N T I C . I TS G E N E R A L C I R C U L A T I O N F O L L O W S T H E S U B T R O P I C A L A N T I C Y C L O N I C GYRE A N D IS R E LATI V ELY W E A K ( 1 - 2 C M S -1) . I N T H E S O U T H E R N PART O F THE BAY O F BISCAY, EAST-FLOWING A N D SL O PE C U R R E N T S ARE C O M M O N SHELF IN A U T U M N A N D W I N T E R AS A R E SU LT O F W E S T E R L Y W I N D S . IN S P R I N G A N D S U M M E R , E A S T E RL Y W l N D S A R E D O M I N A N T , A N D COASTAL UPWELLING E VE NT S ARE F R E Q U E N T . The y ear 2007 w as one of co n trasts in th e Bay of Biscay: a m ild w in te r a n d spring, a n d a cold su m m er an d au tu m n . The n o rth e rn p art of th e Iberian P eninsula h a d average m eteorological conditions in 2007. A n n u al m e a n air te m p e ra tu re over th e so u th e rn Bay of Biscay d u rin g 2007 w as 14.6°C, an average value co m p ared w ith 1961-2007, b u t cooler th a n th e previous tw o w arm decades. The 2007 p a tte rn of w arm w in te r an d cold su m m e r also co n trasts w ith th e cold w in te r a n d w arm su m m er p a tte rn in 2005 an d 2006. As expected, SST reflected th e w a rm e r-c o ld e r p atte rn , w ith July sh o w in g th e However, the p attem for subsurface and intemaediate w a ter differs from th e air a n d SST p a tte rn .T h e w arm 2007 w inter, p reced ed by a w arm 2006 au tu m n , has co n seq u en ces for th e local in term e d iate w aters. T he stro n g cold an o m aly p re se n t in th e area from th e 2005 w inter, w ith a m ixed layer reach in g 300 m d ep th , co m pletely d isap p eared in th e u p p e r p a rt of th is layer follow ing th e fo rm atio n of a n anom alo u s w arm m ixed layer in 2007. Therefore, th e w arm in g te n d en c y d e tec ted in th e ocean in terio r continues. In th e N o rth A tlantic C en tral W ater, th e w arm in g tre n d co n tin u es for th e w h o le period, an d salinity h as stabilized after th e stro n g increase from 2005 to 2007. The M e d iterra n e a n W ater also show s tem p e ra tu re an d salinity increases. D ata P ro vide r: AZTI a nd Ige ld o M e te o ro lo g ica l O b se rva to ry (IN M ) In S an S e b a stia n - S pain Ref: IC E S R e p o rt on O cean C lim a te 2007 150 145 140 135 130 125 — 1— Air T e m p e ra tu re °C 5-yr S m o o th ed D ata 120 '1960 1970 1980 1990 Year 2000 ICES C o o p erativ e R esearch R eport N o. 291 Figure 31. Area 4 - Bay o f Biscay and eastern Atlantic. Potential temperature (upper panel) and salinity (lower panel) at Santander Station 6 (43°42'N 3°47'W; shelf break; 5-200 m). ICES R ep o rt o n O cean C lim ate 2007 15.0 * 145 4.8 Area 4b - N orthw est European continental sh elf Temperature°C 1-yr Smoothed Data 14.0 M E A S U R E M E N T S HA VE B E E N T A KE N AT T H I S S T A T I O N SINCE THE Western English Channel EN D OF TH E I 9 TH CURRENTLY AVAI LABLE UNBROKEN, APART CENTURY, WITH SINCE FROM I 9 O 3 . THE THE GAPS W O R L D WARS A N D A HIATUS IN 1985 TAKES FOR FUNDING DATA SERIES THE IS TWO BETWEEN 135 STATION 13.0 THE 125 El ( 5 0 ° 0 2 ’N WESTERN ENGLISH INFLUENCED 12.0 Da t a Provi der: IEO - Instituto Es pa ñ o l d e Oc e a n o g r a f í a - S p a n i s h Institute of Oc e a n o g r a p h y Ref: I CE S Re por t o n O c e a n Cl i mat e 2 0 0 7 IS 7 5 INFLUENCED BY AT CHANNEL NORTH WATER DE PTH STREAM 350 BY 4 ° 2 2 ’w ) A MEAN IS ATLANTIC IS 1.1 KNOT SPRING TIDE. THE (l-2 FORM OF EARLY M E A S U R E M E N T S W E R E T A K E N W I T H R E V E R S I N G THE SURFACE SEABED MERCURY IN SALINITY BOTTLES. GLASS T H E R M O M E T E R S MORE AND RECENTLY, DI SCRETE ELECTRONIC E Q U I P M E N T (SEABIRD CTO) HAS BEEN UTILIZED. IS E R G S C M 2 S ' ) . T H E S T A T I O N M A Y BE D E S C R I B E D AS O C E A N I C W I T H T H E D E V E L O P M E N T O F A S E A S O N A L t h e r m o c l in e 35.6 ; s t r a t i f i c a t i o n t y p i c a l l y s t a r t s in EA RL Y A P R I L , P E R S I S T S T H R O U G H O U T S U M M E R , A N D IS 355 ERODED DEPTH — *— Salinity 1-yr Smoothed Data 35.4 BY T H E OF THE END OF OCTOBER. SUMMER THERMOCLINE THE TYPICAL IS A R O U N D 2 0 M . T H E S T A T I O N IS G R E A T L Y A F F E C T E D BY A M B I E N T WEATHER. 1992 2002 1997 2007 Year Area 4 - Bay o f Biscay and eastern Atlantic. M onthly surface water temperature at Santander Station 6. THE MAINLY S A ND , RESULT ING IN A LOW BOT TO M STRESS 35.7 Figure 32. DATA IN IS T I D A L L Y MAXIMUM THE MAINLY WATER. M, A N D T H E S T A T I O N 2002. VERTICAL P R O F I L E S O F T E M P E R A T U R E A N D SALINITY. SITUATED AND AND D ata Provider: IEO - Instituto Español d e O ceanografía Ref: IC E S R ep o rt on O c e a n C lim ate 2 0 0 7 The tim e-series show s considerable in teran n u al variability. AVHRR satellite sea-surface analysis for th e m issing 1985-2002 p erio d show s a gradual w arm in g of th e surface w aters, w ith increases in su m m er m axim a an d w in te r m inim a. In 2007, E l w as sam p led on only eight occasions, w ith th e m in im u m surface tem p eratu re (M arch) b ein g 10.8°C an d th e m axim um surface tem p eratu re (Septem ber) b e in g 16.9°C .T he w in ter m inim a is on th e very w arm side (typical w in ter conditions are aro u n d 8-10°C ), a te sta m e n t to th e m ild w in te r in 2007. D u rin g sum m er, tem p eratu res w ere close to th e lo n g -te rm m ean. D u rin g au tu m n , tem p era tu res w ere again very w arm com pared w ith th e lo n g ­ term m ean. 3 4 /3 5 24.0 M ean — 2 0 0 7 T e m p e ra tu re 22.0 - / >7 - - - M a x /M in 20.0 4 S ta n d a rd D e v ia tio c Figure 33. T e m p e ra tu re A nom aly°C 3 2 18.0 1 0 16.0 ■1 ■2 14.0 ■3 12.0 ■4 Da t a Provi der: Mari ne Bi ol ogi cal As s o c i a t i o n a n d Pl ymout h Mar i ne Laborat ory Ref: I CE S Re po r t o n O c e a n Cl i mat e 2 0 0 7 A veraging P eriod: 1993 -2 0 0 0 10.0 J F M A M J J A M o n th S O N D — ■— Salinity A nom aly 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 i 900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 Year 1970 1980 1990 2000 Aren 4b - N orthw est European continental shelf. Temperature anom aly (upper panel) and salinity anom aly (lower panel) o f surface w ater a t station E l In the western English Channel (50°02’N 4 °2 2 ’W). ICES C o o p erativ e R esearch R eport N o. 291 ICES R ep o rt on O cean C lim ate 2007 D ata Provider: MBA and PML - UK Ref: ICES R eport on O cean C lim ate 2007 Figure 34. Area 4b - Northwest European continental shelf. M onthly temperature (left panel) and salinity (right panel) o f surface water at station E l in the western English Channel (50°02'N 4°22'W). 18.0 3 5 .6 0 ----------M ean ■ 16.0 2 0 0 7 T e m p e ra tu re Data Provider: Marine Institute Ireland Ref: ICES Report on Ocean Climate 2007 17.0 — M ean 16.0 3 5 .4 0 — — S ta n d a rd D e via tio n / s S v • ............ M a x/M in / —* G 1 35 .70 A veraging Period: 1903-2007 — 2006 Tem peratupe^s — S ta n d a rd D e via tio n —- M ax/M in / 15.0 3 5 .6 0 - 3 5 .5 0 - 3 5 .2 0 14.0 Averaging Period: 2004-2007 Figure 36. Area 4b - Northwest European Continental Shelf. M onthly temperature (left panel) and salinity (right panel) at the M l weather buoy w est o f Galway, Ireland. 14.0 3 5 .4 0 - 3 5 .0 0 13.0 12.0 3 5 .3 0 - 3 4 .8 0 12.0 10.0 3 5 .2 0 - 3 4 .6 0 ■M ean ----------M e a n -. ■ 8.0 3 4 .4 0 J F M A M J J A M onth S O ■2 0 0 6 S a lin ity N D TIME-SERIES THE MALIN OF A veraging Period: 2004-2007 9.0 3 4 .2 0 J F M A M J J A M onth S O N J D North and west of Ireland THE 3 5 .1 0 - 10.0 — S ta n d a rd D e via tio n ............ M ax/M in A veraging Period: 1903-2007 6.0 — 2 0 0 7 S a lin ity F M A M SURFACE COASTAL J A M onth S O OBSERVATIONS STATION (THE S ta n d a rd D e via tio n M ax/M in 35 .00 N D J J M onth 4.9 Area 5 - Rockall Trough Below. A conductivity/tem perature/ depth (CTD) rosette is lowered into the East Greenland Coastal current from the icebreaker RRS "James Clark Ross" in August 2004. Prior to the cast, the ship was manoeuvred to create an open water "pond"for the rosette. Image courtesy o f R. Pickart, W HOI ; USA. AT TH E ROCKALL T R O U G H HEAD J - IS S I T U A T E D W E S T O F B R I T A I N MOST A N D I R E L A N D A N D IS S E P A R A T E D F R O M T H E I C E L A N D NORTHERLY POINT OF IRELAND) IS INSHORE OF BASIN BY T H E HATTON AND ROCKALL BANKS AND C O A S T A L C U R R E N T S A N D I N F L U E N C E D BY R U N - O F F . FROM THE N O R D I C S E A S BY T H E WYV I LLE—T H O M S O N SHALLOW A TLAN TI C U P P E R WATE R T O REACH T H E Since th e late 1980s, te m p e ra tu res have b e e n increasing, w ith th e m id - 2 0 0 0 s b ein g th e h ig h est reco rd ed since records b e g a n in 1960. D ata p re se n te d h ere are to 2006. The seaso n al cycle on th e Irish Shelf is illu strated by d ata from th e M l w e a th e r b u o y w est of Galway. SEA, WHERE IT IS CONVERTED O V E R F L O W W A T E R AS OVERTURNING (500 M) Rl D G E. IT A L L O W S W A R M N O R T H INTO NORWEGIAN COLD, DENSE PART O F T H E T H E R M O H A L I N E IN T H E N O R T H ATLANTI C. T H E U P P E R WATER C O L U M N IS C H A R A C T E R I Z E D BY P O L E W A R D S - M O V I N G E A S T E R N N O R T H A T L A N T I C W A T E R , W H I C H IS W A R M E R A N D SALTIER T H A N WATE RS O F T H E I CE LA N D BASIN ( T HA T A L S O C O N T R I B U T E T O T H E N O R D I C SEA INFLOW). D ata P ro vide r: M a rin e In stitu te /M e t E ireann - Ireland Ref: IC E S R e p o rt on O cea n C lim a te 2007 Figure 35. Area 4b - Northwest European Continental Shelf Temperature at the M alin Head coastal station (55.39°N 7.38°W). 12D 105 100 — ■— T e m p e ra tu re °C 5-yr S m o o th ed D ata 9.5 1960 1970 1980 1990 Year 2000 In 2007, w arm condition s p ersisted in th e u p p er ocean of th e Rockall Trough, w h ereas salinity is only slightly h ig h er th a n th e lo n g -te rm m e a n after decreasing from a m axim um in 2003. The decrease in m e a n salinity is caused by incursions of fresher w ater, initially seen b e tw e e n the A n to n D o h rn S eam o u n t (11°W) an d Rockall Bank (13°W), b u t n o w fo u n d across th e w hole section. T em peratures rem ain ed very h ig h co m pared w ith the lo n g -te rm m ean ; averaged from th e surface to a d e p th of 800 m , tem p eratu re w as 0.7°C above the lo n g ­ term m ean, 1975-2000. Salinity averaged from the surface to 800 m w as 0.01 above th e lo n g -te rm m ean , 1975-2000. 3 6 /3 7 ICES C oo p erativ e Research R eport N o. 291 F ig u r e 37. Area 5 Rockall Trough. Temperature (upper panel) aud sa lin ity (lower pauel) for the upper oceau (0 -8 0 0 ui). ICES R ep o rt on O cean C lim ate 2007 105 5.5 F ig u re 38. Area 5b Inntuger Sea. Temperature (upper pauel) aud salinity (lower pauel) o f Subpolar M ode W ater (averaged over 2 0 0 -4 0 0 m). 5.0 100 4.5 9.5 4.0 9.0 — 1— T em perature °C 1 3.5 T em p eratu re °C 2-yr S m o o th ed D ata 3.0 D ata P rovider: N a tion a l O ce a n o g ra p h y C e ntre S o u tha m p ton and S cottish A ssociatio n fo r M a rin e S cie n ce - UK Ref: IC E S R e po rt on O cea n C lim a te 2007 Data P rovider: K on in klijk N e d e rla n d s In stitu u t v o o r Z e e o n d e rz o e k (N IO Z) - R oyal N e th e rla n d s Institu te fo r S ea R e search Ref: IC E S R e po rt on O cea n C lim a te 2007 35.40 34.96 Salinity 34.94 35.35 34.92 34.90 — ■— Salinity 35.30 34.88 2-yr S m o o th ed D ata 34.86 35.25 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1990 4.10 Area 5b - Irminger Sea 2000 1995 Y ear 2005 Y ear 3 8 /3 9 ► U n d e r s t a n d i n g p a t t e r n s o f variability T h e o c e a n at any o n e l o c a t io n v a r ie s o n m a n y t i m e - s c a l e s f r o m h o u r s an d d a y s t o d e c a d e s , c e n t u r ie s , THE IRMINGER SEA IS T H E OCEAN BASIN BETWEEN S O U T H E R N G R E E N L A N D , T H E REYKJ ANES R IDG E, A N D ICELAND. THIS AREA FORMS PART OF THE NORTH and m il le n n ia . In t h i s report, w e a im t o ident ify v a r ia tio n s o n a t i m e - s c a l e o f m o n t h s t o d e c a d e s , s o th a t w h e n w e inter pr et t i m e - s e r i e s t h a t s a m p l e t h e o c e a n o n ly a f e w t i m e s a year, o r e v e n o n c e a year, w e n e e d t o u n d e r s t a n d h o w t h e s h o r t e r t i m e - s c a l e s o r h ig h e r f r e q u e n c y c h a n g e s m i g h t aff ec t t h e r es u lt s. A g o o d e x a m p l e is t h e a p p a r e n t ly erratic b e h a v i o u r o f t h e a n n u a l t i m e - s e r i e s f r o m d e e p w a te r AT LANTI C SU B AR C TI C A N T I C Y C L O N I C GYRE. OF THIS THE GYRE, TH E IRMINGER SEA BECAUSE E X CH A NG E O F WATER BETWEEN AND THE LABRADOR SEA IS R E L A T I V E L Y F AST. In 2004, th e S u b p o lar M ode W ater in th e centre of th e Irm in g er Sea, in th e p ressu re interval 200-400 dbar, reach ed its h ig h est te m p e ra tu re a n d salinity since 1991. Since th e n , a slight cooling an d fresh en in g h as occurred. A lth o u g h convection th a t reach ed d e p th s of m ore th a n 600 m in th e follow ing w in ters red u ced te m p e ra tu re an d salinity slightly, th e te m p e ra tu re of th e S ubpolar M ode W ater in 2007 w as th e seco n d h ig h est since 1991, w h ereas salinity in su m m e r 2007 w as still considerably h ig h e r th a n o bserved before 1998. T hus, th e tre n d of increasin g tem p eratu re a n d salinity th a t b eg an in 1995/1996 seem s to have c o n tin u ed d u rin g 2007. in t h e Irm in ge r S e a . A n e w s e t o f daily m e a s u r e m e n t s w ith a m o o r e d s e n s o r s y s t e m o v e r t h r e e ye ars (2 0 0 3 - 2 0 0 6 ) r e v e a ls t h a t t h e erratic a n n u a l t i m e - s e r i e s is, in fact, a p o o r r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f variability with in e a ch year. T his is k n ow n a s “ali as in g’’ an d is a signifi can t p r o b le m in interpreting long -te rm c h a n g e s . Below. Mooring recovery from RV "Merian"in the ice in Fram Strait. Image courtesy o f A. BeszczynskaMöller, AW I, Germany. ICES C o o p erativ e R esearch R eport N o. 291 ICES R ep o rt on O cean C lim ate 2007 9.5 4.11 Area 6 - Faroe Bank C hannel and Faroe Current Figure 40. Area 6 Faroe Cnrrent. Temperatnre (npper panel) and salinity (lower panel) in the core o f the Faroe Cnrrent (m axim nm salinity averaged over a layer 50 m in depth. 9.0 8.5 ONE BRANCH CROSSES BOTH THE SIDES OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC G R E E N LAN D - S C O T L A N D OF THE FAROES. THE CURRENT RIDGE FAROE 8.0 ON ■ BANK 7.5 T em p eratu re °C 2-yr S m o o th ed D ata C H A N N E L S A M P L E S I TS P R O P E R T I E S B E F O R E , A N D T H E FAROE CURRENT SAMPLES THE PROPERTIES 7.0 AFTER, C R O S S IN G THE RIDGE. 6.5 D ata P rovider: F iskiran n sokn a rstova n - Fa ro e - Fa ro ese F ish e rie s L a b orato ry Ref: IC E S R e po rt on O cean C lim a te 2007 Since 1988, temperature and salinity of the upper waters have been steadily increasing. Value s in 2007 were slightly down from 2004, but remained higher than average for the time-series. 35.35 r 35.30 35.25 35.20 Figure 39. Area 6 - Faroe B ank Channel. Temperatnre (npper panel) and sa lin ity (lower panel) from the layer 100 -3 0 0 m deep at two standard stations in the channel. — ■— Salinity yo 2-yr S m o o th ed D ata 35.15 gQ 3 5 .1 0 1— L 1985 1990 2000 1995 2005 Y ear 8.5 T em p eratu re °C 2-yr S m o o th ed D ata D ata Provider: F isk ira n n so k n arsto v a n - F a ro e Ref: IC E S R eport on O c e a n C lim ate 2 0 0 7 8.0 11.0 - Figure 41. Area 6-Faroes coastal temperature. M onthly temperature data from the Faroe coastal stations M ykines (1914-1969 , 69.10°N 7.66°W) and Oyrargjogu (1991 onwards, 62.12 °N 7.17°W). ■M e a n 7.5 10.0 D ata P rovider: F iskiran n sokn a rstova n - Faroe - Fa ro ese F ish e rie s Lab orato ry Ref: IC E S R e p o rt on O cea n C lim a te 2007 ■2 0 0 7 T e m p e ra tu r ■ S ta n d a rd D e v ij 35.40 — •— Salinity M a x /M in 9 .0 ■ ■> 2-yr S m o o th ed D ata / '/ J / 35.35 8 .0 ■ 35.30 7 .0 ■ 35.25 6 .0 ■ 35.20 5 .0 ■ 35.15 1988 1993 1998 Y ear 2003 2008 A veraging Period: 1914 -1 9 6 9 4 .0 ■ J F M A M J J M o n th T EM PE RAT UR E A N D SALINITY OF T HE U PP ER WATERS HAVE BEEN STEADILY IN C R E A S I N G SHETLAND REGIONS. IN T H E F AROE A N D A S O N D 4 0 /4 1 ICES C o o p erativ e R esearch R eport N o. 291 ICES R ep o rt on O cean C lim ate 2007 Figure 43. 4.12 Area 7 - F aroe-S h etlan d C hannel Area 7 Faroe-Shetland Channel. Temperatnre anom aly (npper panel) and salinity anom aly (lower panel) in the M odified A tlantic W ater entering the Faroe-Shetland Channel fivm the north after circnlating aronnd Faroe. T em perature A nom aly C 2-yr S m o o th ed D ata THE CONTINENTAL SLOPE THE EDGE NORTHWEST OF ORIGINATING IT CARRIES THE THE CURRENT IN T HE S O U T H E R N WARM, SALINE FAROE-SHETLAND FLOWS ALONG EUROPEAN SHELF, ROCKALL T R O U G H . ATLANTIC CHANNEL. WATER A INTO PROPORTION OF T H IS ATLANTIC WATER CRO SSE S O N T O THE SHELF I TSELF AND DILUTED LEAVES THE IN COOLER, THE THE THE NORTH SEA COASTAL WATER AND NORWEGIAN ENTERS THE NORWEGIAN WHERE COASTAL CIRCULATING SECOND WATERS AROUND BRANCH OF ORIGINATING FROM THE IN THE TO 0.20 0.15 SEA ENTERS 0.10 NORTH 0.05 ISLANDS. JOINS 0.00 CURRENT -0.05 WATER SLOPE D ata P rovider: F R S - F ish e rie s R e search S e n /Ice s - A be rd ee n - U K Ref: IC E S R e po rt on O cea n C lim a te 2007 CURRENT. THE FAROE ATLANTIC IS CURRENT. NORWEGIAN ATLANTIC CHANNEL IT EVENTUALLY LESS S AL IN E AT LANTIC WAT ER AL S O FAROE-SHETLAND AFTER THIS THE REMAINDER BECOME THE ENTERS WITH A N D A L S O E NT ER S T H E N O R W E G I A N SEA. - 0.10 — •— Salinity A nom aly -0.15 T he surface w ate rs of th e F a ro e-S h e tla n d C h an n el have generally in creased in te m p e ra tu re a n d salinity over th e p a st tw o d ecades, w ith re co rd -h ig h te m p e ra tu re s observed in 2003. B oth te m p e ra tu re a n d salinity have declin ed slightly since 2003. A lth o u g h salinity v alues w ere h ig h in 2003, th ey have b e e n at th is level in th e past. 2-yr S m o o th ed D ata - 0.20 1950 1960 1970 1980 Y ear 1990 2000 ► S i n c e 1 9 7 0 , t h e s a m p l i n g f r e q u e n c y in t h e F a r o e - S h e t l a n d C h a n n e l h a s i n c r e a s e d an d , o v e r t h a t perio d, a d e c a d a l - s c a l e c y cle o f t e m p e r a t u r e and s alinit y h a s e m e r g e d in t h e p r o p e r tie s o f t h e A tl an ti c Water, t h o u g h t t o be rela ted t o w i d e r s c a l e c h a n g e s in a t m o s p h e r i c a nd o c e a n i c c ir cu la ti on . T h is pa tte rn is n o t a s c le a r in t h e M od if ied N or th A tl an ti c Water, w h ic h tr ave ls in to t h e F a r o e - S h e t l a n d C h a n n e l f r o m a r o u n d t h e nor th o f Faroe. 2.0 Figure 42. Aren 7 -F a ro e-S h etla n d Channel. Temperatnre anom aly (npper panel) and salinity anom aly (lower panel) in the A tlantic W ater in the Slope Cnrrent. 0.5 0.0 A rea-averaged SSTs of th e N o rth Sea have b een increasing since June 2001. O w in g to very m ild w in ter tem p eratu res, th e v eg eta tio n perio d (prim ary production) w as m u ch lo n g er th a n u su al in 2007. 4.13 A reas 8 and 9 - N orthern and sou th ern N orth Sea -0.5 — 1— T e m p eratu re A nom aly°C 2-yr S m o o th ed D ata -2.0 NORTH SEA DETERMINED WATER D ata P rovider: FR S - F ish e rie s R e search S e rvice s - A b e rd ee n - U K Ref: IC E S R e po rt on O cean C lim a te 2007 AND EXCHANGE. 0.20 OCEANOGRAPHIC BY T H E INFLOW THE THE CONDITIONS OF SALINE O C E A N —A T M O S P H E RE INFLOW T HR OU GH THE ARE ATLANTIC HEAT NORTHERN E N T R A N C E S ( A N D , T O A L E S S E R D E C RE E, T H R O U G H T H E 0.15 ENGLISH 0.10 BY T H E CHANNEL) NAO. CAN BE S T R O N G L Y I N F L U E N C E D NUM ERICAL M O DE L SIM U L A T IO N S ALSO 0.05 DEMONSTRATE STRONG 0.00 SEA C I R C U L A T I O N , D E P E N D I N G O N T H E STATE O F THE D IF F E R E N C E S IN T HE N A O . THE ATLANTIC WATER MIXES WITH NORTH RIVER R U N ­ -0.05 OFF - 0.10 — ■— Salinity A nom aly -0.15 - 0.20 1950 2-yr S m o o th ed D ata 1970 1980 Y ear 1990 2000 LOWER SALINITY BALTIC O U T F L O W ALONG THE N O R W E G IA N COAST. A BALANCE OF TIDAL MIXING AND A 1960 AND LOCAL H E A T I N G SEASONAL FORCES THE STRATIFICATION D u rin g th e first m o n th s of 2007, m e a n SST in th e N o rth Sea clearly exceeded th e lo n g -te rm m ean by 1.1-1.7°C , b ecause of w arm tem p eratu res in a u tu m n 2006 a n d extraordinarily w arm air tem p eratu res d u rin g April. January an d A pril w ere th e w arm est (both +1.7°C) since th e b eg in n in g of th ese observations in 1971. D u rin g the second half of 2007, area-av erag ed m o n th ly SST values w ere com parable w ith th e clim atological m ean s (1971-1993) show ing anom alies b e tw e e n +0.5°C an d +1.0°C. DE VE L OPM EN T OF FROM APRIL/MAY S E P T E M B E R IN M O S T PARTS O F T H E N O R T H S EA . TO N ear-surface tem p eratu res exhibit th e typical gradient w ith increasing values from th e o pen n o rth e rn b o u n d ary tow ards th e in n e r G erm an 4 2 /4 3 ICES C o o p erativ e R esearch R eport N o. 291 ICES R ep o rt on O cean C lim ate 2007 Bight. The spatial p a tte rn is com parable w ith 2006, b u t tem p e ra tu re s are generally a b o u t 1 -2 °C cooler. The m o n th ly averaged SST for A u g u st 2007 h a s a positive an o m aly of only +0.5°C co m p ared w ith +2.2°C in 2006. The H elg o lan d R oads sta n d a rd statio n d em o n strate s th at, since th e cold w in te r of 1996, SSTs have b e e n above th e 3 0 -y ear m e a n (1971-2000), w ith positive anom alies of 0 .5 -1 .0°C. A VERY W A R M START T O T H E YEAR IN T H E N O R T H SEA. C o m p ared w ith 2006, th e to n g u e of A tlantic W ater (AW) w ith surface salinity (S >35) is m u ch sm aller an d is restricted to th e n o rth e rn p a rt of th e N o rth Sea. In 2006, th is to n g u e w as m u ch b ro a d er an d ex p an d ed so u th w ard s to a b o u t 5 5 °N .T h e ribb on of less saline w ater (S <34) g en e ra te d b y co n tin en tal river ru n -o ff a n d Baltic outflow is rou g h ly com parable w ith 2006 in its h o riz o n ta l extension, b u t is regionally m u ch deeper, as in 2006 n o rth of 56°N . The to ta l N o rth Sea salt co n te n t increased from 1.138 x IO 12 to n n e s in A ug ust 2006 to 1.143 X IO 12 to n n e s in A u g u st 2007, cau sed b y h ig h e r salinity v alues in th e shallow er so u th e rn p a rt of th e N o rth Sea. Figure 45. In 2005, 2006, an d 2007, ru n -o ff from th e Elbe an d W eser rivers w as close to th e lo n g -te rm m e a n after a m in im u m ru n -o ff in 2004. In 2007, th e m o n th ly Elbe River ru n -o ff w as b elo w th e lo n g -term m e a n b e tw e e n M arch a n d June. A pril 2007 w as th e w a rm e st a n d m o st arid A pril since 1901, w ith m in im u m precip itatio n in G erm any; som e areas h a d n o precip itatio n d u rin g April. H ow ever, there w ere no significant v ariations from th e lo n g -term m ean. T em perature a n d salinity at tw o p o sitions in the n o rth e rn N o rth Sea illustrate con d itions in the A tlantic inflow (Figure 45). The first (Location A) is at th e n e a r b o tto m in th e n o rth w e ste rn p art of th e N o rth Sea, a n d th e seco n d (Location B) is in th e core of th e A W at th e w e ste rn shelf edge of th e N o rw eg ian Trench. M easu re m e n ts w ere ta k e n d u rin g su m m e r an d re p re sen t th e previous w in ter's conditions. The average tem p eratu re at L ocation A w as 1 -2 °C low er th a n at L o cation B, an d salinity w as also slightly lower. In b o th locations, th ere w ere h ig h tem p e ra tu re s a n d salinities in 2005. This w as th e result of th e h ig h salinity of inflow ing A W an d th e effect of a m ild w in te r (th o u g h th e relatively cold w in te r a n d sp rin g of 2005 led to less extrem e tem p e ra tu re s in th e deep layers th a n in 2004). Area 8 - N orthern N o rth Sea. Temperature (upper panel) and salinity (lower panel) near the seabed In the northwestern part o f the N orth Sea (Location A ) and In the core o f A tla n tic W ater at the western s h e lf edge o f the Norw egian Trench (Location B) during sum m ers 1975-2007. 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 T e m p eratu re °C A 6.0 T e m p eratu re °C B D ata P rovider: IM R - Institute o f M a rin e R e search - N orw ay Ref: IC E S R e po rt on O cea n C lim a te 2007 35.40 35.35 35.30 35.25 35.20 35.15 - — Salinity A + — Salinity B 35.10 35.05 35.00 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 Y ear 1990 1995 2000 2005 44/45 Figure 46. Area 8 - N orthern N o rth Sea. Temperature anom aly (upper panel) and salinity anom aly (lower panel) In the Fair Isle Current entering the N o rth Sea f v m the N o rth Atlantic. 2 1 D ata P rovider: IM R - Institu te o f M a rin e R e sea rch - N orw a y Ref: IC E S R e p o rt on O cea n C lim a te 2007 Figure 44. Aren 8 - N orthern N o rth Sen. M odelled annual mean (bold) and m o n th ly mean volum e transport o f A tlantic W ater Into the northern and central N orth Sea southw ards between the O rkney Islands and Utslra, Norw ay. 4.0 0 1nflow (Sv) 3.5 1 -yr S m o o th ed D ata -1 3.0 • -2 2.5 T e m p e ra tu re A nom aly °C 2-yr S m o o th ed D ata 2.0 Data P rovider: F ish e rie s R e search S e n /Ice s - A be rd ee n - UK Ref: IC E S R e po rt on O cea n C lim a te 2007 0.6 — ■— Salinity A nom aly 2-yr S m o o th ed D ata 0.4 0.5 — 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 Y ear 2005 0.2 0.0 - 0.2 -0.4 ► In t h e Sk agerrak, in a d d it io n t o o ve ra ll i n c r e a s e d t e m p e r a t u r e , t h e le n g th o f t h e w a r m s e a s o n h a s in c r e a s e d s ig n if ica n tly o v e r t h e la st f e w y e a r s ( c o n d i t i o n s in t h e Sk ag er r ak are t h o u g h t t o be r e p r e s e n t a t iv e o f c o n d i t i o n s t h r o u g h o u t t h e N or th S e a ) . T his is unlik e m o s t o f t h e p a s t 4 5 ye ars, t h o u g h sim ila r c o n d i t i o n s w e r e o b s e r v e d a r o u n d 1 9 9 0 . T h e r es u lt is th a t c o ld water, p r e v io u s ly o b s e r v e d d u r in g large par ts o f t h e year, h a s n o w b e e n a b s e n t for se v e r a l years . T o g e t h e r w ith t h e high t e m p e r a t u r e s , t h i s will h a v e s ig n ifi c a n t e f f e c t s o n e c o s y s t e m d y n a m i c s in t h e N or th S e a and t h e Sk agerrak. 1970 1980 1990 Year 2000 ICES C oo p erativ e Research R eport N o. 291 ICES R ep o rt on O cean C lim ate 2007 D ata Provider: Bundesamt fuer Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographi Ref: ICES Report on Ocean Climate 2007 Figure 47. Area 9 - Southern N o rth Sea. A n n u a l mean surface temperahire anom aly (upper panel) and sa lin ity anom aly (lower panel) at Station H elgoland Roads. Figure 49. Areas 8 and 9 - Northern and southern North Sea. North Sea area-averaged sea surface temperature (SST) annual cycle; monthly means based on operational weekly North Sea SST maps. 18.0 ■M ean ■2 0 0 7 T e m p e ra tu re 16.0 — S ta n d a rd Deviafii .................Max/Min 14.0 12.0 rature A nom aly C o-yi o n io o th e d D ata 10.0 8 .0 D a ta P rovider: AW 1/BAH (A lfre d -W e g e n e r-ln s titu t / B io lo g isch e A n s ta lt H e lg ola n d) - G e rm a n y Ref: IC E S R e p o rt on O cea n C lim a te 2 00 7 6 .0 — •— Salinity A nom aly 5-yr S m o o th ed D ata 4.0 2 0.5 A veraging P eriod: 197 1 -2 0 0 0 J 0.0 F M A M J J A M o n th S O N D -0.5 1950 1960 1970 1980 Y ear 2000 1990 Figure 4S. Area 9 Southern N orth Sea. N orm alized sea surface temperature anom aly (upper panel) and salinity anom aly (lower panel) relative to 19 71-2000, measured along 52°N , a regular ferny at six standard stations. The timeseries reveals the seasonal section average (DJF, M A M , JJA, S O N ) o f the nonnallzed variable. 4.14 Area 9b - Skagerrak, Kattegat, and the Baltic th ro u g h o u t S w eden, an d th e fresh -w ater in p u t to S k ag errak -K atteg at w as large d u rin g Ja n u ary M arch an d July. T H E S E A S I N A R E A 9 b AR E C H A R A C T E R I Z E D BY L A R G E Sea surface tem p eratu re w as w ell above n o rm al at th e b e g in n in g of the year in the w hole area except B othnian Bay. W arm w e a th e r in th e first half of June also gave rise to h ig h e r-th a n -n o rm a l SSTs. This h eatin g p erio d e n d e d in late June, earlier in th e n o rth th a n in th e south. For th e rest of th e year, tem p eratu res w ere close to norm al. SALINITY VARIATIONS. MASSES FROM ARE P R E S E N T . T H E BETWEEN THE IN THE SKAGERRAK, WATER D I F F E R E N T PARTS O F T H E N O R T H SEA K A T T E G A T IS A T R A N S I T I O N A R E A BALTIC AND THE SKAGERRAK. THE W A T E R IS S T R O N G L Y S T R A T I F I E D W I T H A P E R M A N E N T H A L O C L I N E ( S H A R P C H A N G E I N S A L I N I T Y AT D E P T H ) . THE — •— N orm alized T e m p e ra tu re A nom aly -2 CAN 2-yr S m o o th e d D ata DEEP ENTERS BE INNER IN IN SOUTHERN THE THE STAGNANT BASINS. IN T H E D a ta P ro vide r: C E F A S - C e n tre fo r E n v iro n m e n t F ish e rie s a nd A q u a c u ltu re S c ie n c e - UK Ref: IC E S R e p o rt on O cea n C lim a te 2 00 7 WATER THROUGH FOR THE BALTIC BELTS LO NG PROPER, AND THE PERIODS WHICH SOUND, IN RELATI VELY S H A L L O W BALTI C, S M A L L E R INFLOWS RE L A T I V E L Y Q U I C K L Y , A N D T H E C O N D I T I O N S THE AREA PASS — •— N orm alized Salinity A nom aly 2-yr S m o o th e d D ata VERY L O W IN T H E BALTIC P R O P E R A N D T H E G U L F O F B O T H N I A . T H E L A T T E R A R E A I S I CE C O V E R E D D U R I N G 1 WINTER. 0 ■1 ■2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 T here w ere a n u m b e r of m in o r inflow s of salty and oxygen-rich w ater to th e Baltic, b u t n o n e of th em reach ed the d eep er parts of th e Baltic P ro p er w here w ater w as stagnant. IN THE D E E P W A T E R A R E V E R Y V A R I A B L E . S U R F A C E S A L I N I T Y IS 2 4 6 /4 7 O w in g to its central location relative to the Skagerrak, K attegat, an d Baltic, th e w e a th e r in S w ed en can be ta k e n as rep resen tativ e for the area. M ean air tem p eratu re d u rin g 2007 w as 1.5-2°C above n o rm al in m ost parts of S w eden, b u t n o t quite as h ig h as in 2006. January, M arch, and A pril w ere w arm er th a n norm al, an d in June, a h e a t wave set in. As in th e previous year, D ecem ber 2007 w as u n u su ally w arm . P recipitatio n w as above no rm al The freeze-u p w as late d u rin g w in te r 2006/2007, as in th e previous ice season. In January 2007, ice cover w as sm all, b u t at th e en d of th e m o n th and in February, cold w e a th e r in th e n o rth accelerated th e ice grow th. M axim um ice extent occurred early, by 23 February, an d th e ice w in ter w as classified as m ild. AN UNUSUALLY WARM WINTER WITH LESS T H A N N O R M A L I CE E X T E N T F O R T H E B A L T I C A R E A . ICES C oo p erativ e Research R eport N o. 291 ICES R ep o rt o n O cean C lim ate 2007 Data Provider: FI MR - Finnish Institute o f Marine Research - Finland Ref: ICES Report on Ocean Climate 2007 F igure 50. Aren 9b - Skagerrak, Kattegat, and the Baltic. Surface temperature (upper panel) and surface salinity (lower panel) at Station B Y 15 (east o f Gotland) In the Baltic proper 11 12 • F igure 52. — *— Salinity a t 0m T e m p e ra tu re °C 10 11 —+ — Salinity a t 70m 9 10 8 9 6 Area 9b - Skagerrak, Kattegat, and the Baltic. Salinity at Station LL7 in the G ulf o f Finland. * 7 5 8 4 3 1—1 7 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Y e ar D a ta P ro vide r: S M H I - S w e d ish M e te o ro lo g ica l a nd H yd ro lo g ica l Institu te Ref: IC E S R e p o rt on O cea n C lim a te 2007 — •— Salinity 5-yr S m o o th e d D ata D a ta P ro vide r: F IM R - F in n ish Institu te o f M a rin e R e sea rch - Fin la nd Ref: IC E S R e p o rt on O cea n C lim a te 2 00 7 7.6 5.0 Figure 5 3. Area 9b - Skagerrak, Knttegat, and the Baltic. Salinity at Station B03 In Bothntan Bay. — ■— Salinity a t 0m 7.4 — +— Salinity a t 100m 4.5 7.2 4.0 AT 7.0 3.5 1960 1970 1980 2000 1990 3.0 Y e ar 1970 1980 1990 2000 Y ear D ata Provider: S w e d ish M eteorological an d H ydrological Institute Ref: ICES R ep o rt on O c e a n C lim ate 2007 F igure 51. Area 9b - Skagerrak, Kattegat, and the Baltic. M onthly surface temperature (left panel) and salinity (right panel) at Station BY15 (east o f Gotland) in the Baltic proper. 20.0 7.40 t' M ean 18.0 - 4 8 /4 9 D a ta P ro vide r: F IM R - Fin n ish Institu te o f M a rin e R e se a rch - Fin la nd Ref: IC E S R e p o rt on O cea n C lim a te 2 00 7 7.5 A veraging Period: 1990-1999 2 0 0 7 T ern — ■— Salinity a t 0m — + — Salinity a t100m \ 7.0 Figure 54. Area 9b - Skagerrak, Knttegat, and the Baltic. Salinity at Station SR5 In the Bothntan Sea. - S ta n d a rd Devi 16.0 - M a x /M in 6.5 14.0 ■ 12.0 ■ 6.0 10.0 ■ 5.5 8 .0 ■ 6 .9 0 - 6 .0 ■ 1970 M ean 4 .0 ■ 1980 1990 2000 Y e ar 2 0 0 7 S a lin ity ■ S ta n d a rd D e v ia tio n 2 .0 ■ D ata P ro vide r: S M H I - S w e d ish M e te o ro lo g ica l a nd H yd ro lo g ica l Institu te Ref: IC E S R e p o rt on O cea n C lim a te 2 00 7 M a x /M in A veraging Period: 1990-1999 0.0 o .o u J F M A M J J A M o n th S O N D 400 J F M A M J J A M o n th S O N D — 1— O b se rv e d lee A rea (10 km ) 350 —+ — Limit for m ild/norm al ice w inter 300 • Limit for n o rm a l/se v ere ice w inter 250 200 150 100 50 1960 1970 1980 1990 Y ear 2000 Figure 55. Area 9b - Skagerrak, Knttegat, and the Baltic. The lee extent In the Baltic starting f v m 1961. ICES C o o p erativ e R esearch R eport N o. 291 ICES R ep o rt on O cean C lim ate 2007 4.15 Area 10 - N orw egian Sea THE NORWEGIAN SEA ATLANTIC WATER O N ARCTI C WATER ON IS C H A R A C T E R I Z E D THE THE EASTERN WESTERN BY W A R M SIDE A N D SIDE, COLD SEPARATED BY T H E A R C T I C F R O N T . A T L A N T I C W A T E R E N T E R S T H E NORWEGIAN SEA T H R O U G H CHANNEL AND BETWEEN TH E THE F A R O E - S H ETLAN D FAROES A N D ICELAND VI A T H E F A ROE F R O N T . A S MAL L E R B R A N C H , T H E N O R T H 2.0 T hree sections from so u th to n o rth in th e eastern N o rw eg ian Sea sh o w th e d e v elo p m en t of tem p e ra tu re a n d salinity in th e core of th e AW (Svinoy, G im soy, an d Sorkapp). In general, there h as b e e n an increase in tem p e ra tu re a n d salinity in all th ree sections from th e m id-1990s to th e present. In 2007, te m p e ra tu re in th e Svinoy section w as the h ig h e st in th e tim e-series. In th e o th er sections, b o th te m p e ra tu re a n d salinity decreased from 2006 to 2007, b u t w ere still above th e lo n g -te rm m ean . Figure 5 7. Area 10 - Norw egian Sea. Temperature anom aly (upper panel) and salinity anom aly (lower panel) at 50 m at Ocean W eather Station "M ike” (66°N 2°E). 0.5 0.0 -0.5 • T em p eratu re Anomaly °C 2-yr S m oothed D ata - 2.0 ICELANDIC IR M IN G E R CU RRENT, ENTERS TH E N O R D IC SEAS O N WATER THE WESTERN FLOWS SIDE OF NORTHWARDS AS ICELAND. ATLANTIC THE NORWEGIAN A T L A N T I C C U R R E N T , W H I C H S P L I T S W H E N IT R E A C H E S NORTHERN SEA, WHILE NORWAY; THE SOME REST ENTERS CONTINUES THE BARENTS NORTHWARDS I N T O T H E A R C T I C O C E A N AS T H E W E S T S P I T S B E R G E N In 2007, te m p e ra tu res a n d salinities w ere 0.9°C, 0.4°C, a n d 0.6°C, an d 0.05, 0.04, a n d 0.07 above the lo n g -te rm m e a n for th e tim e-series in the Svinoy, Gim soy, an d S orkapp sections, respectively. The h ig h salinity values reflect saltier A W in th e F aro eS h etlan d C hannel. D ata P rovider: G eo p hysica l Institute - U n ive rsity o f B ergen - N orw ay Ref: IC E S R e po rt on O cean C lim a te 2007 0.20 — •— Salinity Anomaly 0.15 2-yr S m oothed D ata 0.10 0.05 0.00 CURRENT. O cean W eath er S tatio n "M " located at 6 6 °N 2°E revealed th e 2007 tem p eratu re an d salinity at 50 m to be above th e lo n g -te rm m ean , alth o u g h there w as a slight decrease in b o th from 2004 values. -0.C5 - 0.10 -0.15 - 0.20 — 1945 F igure 56. Area 10 - Norw egian Sea. A verage temperature (upper panel) and salinity (lower panel) above the slope at three sections, Svin o y (63°N), G im soy (69°N), and Sorkapp (76°N). 1955 1965 1975 Y ear 1985 1995 2005 9 8 5 0 /5 1 7 6 5 D ata Provider: G eophysical Institute - University of B ergen Ref: ICES R eport on O c ea n Clim ate 2007 ^ T e m p e ra tu re °C Svinoy 4 3 5 .30 —T e m p e ra tu re °C G im soy 3 — M ean — 2 0 0 7 T e m p e ra tu re T e m p e ra tu re °C S o rk ap p 10.0 F igure 58. Averaging Period: 1971-2000 Area 10 - Norwegian Sea. M onthly temperature (left panel) and salinity (right panel) at 50 m at Ocean Weather Station "Mike" (66°N 2°E). 35.25 - — S ta n d a rd D e via tio n D ata P rovider: IM R - Institu te o f M a rin e R e sea rch - N orw a y Ref: IC E S R e p o rt on O cean C lim a te 2007 ■ ■M ax/M in 35.20 - 35.4 9.0 3 5 .1 5 353 3 5 .1 0 - 352 3 5 .0 5 - 35.1 7.0 3 5 .0 0 - 35D — ■— S alinity Svinoy 349 1975 3 4 .9 5 - —+— Salinity G im soy • 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Salinity S ork ap p 2005 Y ear H I G H S A L I N I T Y V A L U E S R E F L E C T S ALTI ER A T L A N T I C W A T E R A T O C E A N WEATHER STATION “ MIKE” . — 2 0 0 7 S a lin ity — S ta n d a rd D e via tio n 6.0 ■ ■M ax/M in A veraging Period: 1971-2000 5.0 J F M A M J J A M onth S O 3 4 .90 N D J F M A M J J A M onth S O N D ICES C o o p erativ e R esearch R eport N o. 291 ICES R eport on O cean C lim ate 2007 4.16 Area 11 - Barents Sea THE BARENTS SEA IS A SHELF SEA RECEIVING AN INFLOW OF WARM ATLANTIC WATER FROM THE WEST. THE INFLOW SHOWS INTERANNUAL W ATER-M ASS CONTENT AND ALSO S H O W CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS PROPERTIES. I CE SEASONAL IN IN AND VOLUME CONSEQUENTLY, COVERAGE 5.5 D u rin g th e first half of th e year, positive anom alies THE AND HEAT BARENTS w ere p red o m in a n tly h ig h e r th a n d u rin g th e second half.T em perature cond itio n s in 2007 w ere generally close to th o se in 2006, th e w a rm e st year ever observed in th e B arents Sea. The to tal ice extent of th e sea w as m u c h lo w er th ro u g h o u t th e year th a n th e lo n g -te rm average, a n d sea ice w as n o t observed d u rin g w in ter so u th of 76°N. 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 SEA A fter a p erio d w ith h ig h te m p e ra tu res in th e first h alf of the 1990s, te m p e ra tu res in th e B arents Sea d ro p p ed to values slightly b elo w th e lo n g -te rm average over th e w h o le area in 1996 a n d 1997. From M arch 1998, te m p e ra tu re in th e w e ste rn area in creased to just above average, w h ereas tem p e ra tu re in th e e a ste rn areas re m a in e d b elo w average d u rin g 1998. From th e b e g in n in g of 1999, th ere w as a rapid tem p e ra tu re increase in th e w e stern B arents Sea th a t also sp read to th e e a stern p art. Since th en , tem p e ra tu re h as stayed above average. In th e so u th e rn B arents Sea, w ate r tem p e ra tu re anom alies in 2007 w ere ab ou t 1°C above th e lo n g ­ term m ean s. T em perature of th e A tlantic W aters varied b e tw e e n 0.7°C a n d 1.7°C h ig h e r th a n no rm al th ro u g h o u t th e year, d e p e n d in g o n tinae a n d place. a n d lo w est (in spring) inflow observed. A t the b eg in n in g of 2007, inflow h a d increased to just b elo w th e lo n g -te rm m ean , b u t th e n u n d e rw e n t a n o th e r stro n g decrease d u rin g sp rin g 2007. D ata are only available un til su m m er 2007, b u t w ind con d itio n s d u rin g a u tu m n 2007 indicate a relatively w eak inflow also in th e last p a rt of th e year. Because inflow w as very lo w in 2007 co m p ared w ith earlier years, it is expected to increase in 2008. — *— T em p eratu re cC 5-yr S m o o th ed D ata C u rren t m e a su re m e n ts sh o w ed th a t 2006 w as an extrem e year, w ith b o th th e h ig h est (in w inter) LARGE F L U C T U A T I O N S . Figure 60. Area 11 Barents Sea. Temperature (upper panel) and salinity (lower panel) in the Kola Section (0-2 0 0 m). 2.5 Data P rovider: P IN R O - Knipovichi P olar R e search Institute o f M arine F ish e rie s and O ce a n o g ra p h y - R u ssia Ref: IC E S R e po rt on O cean C lim a te 2 007 — -— Salinity 5-yr S m o o th ed D ata 34.90 34.85 34.80 34.75 34.70 W ater te m p e ra tu re in th e B arents Sea in 2008 is expected to b e h ig h e r th a n th e lo n g -te rm m ean . As 34.65 1950 FRAM 2.0 Figure 59. 1970 1980 Y ear 4.17 Area 12 - G reenland Sea and Fram Strait THE Area 11 Barents Sea. Temperature anom aly (upper panel) and salinity anom aly (low erpanel) in the Fugloya-Bear Island Section. 1960 inflow is expected to increase after th e w eak inflow in 2007, te m p e ra tu re w ill pro b ab ly b e as h ig h as or even h ig h er th a n in 2007. STRAIT NORDIC IS THE SEAS. IT NORTHERN IS THE BORDER DEEPEST OF PASSAGE C O N N E C T I N G T H E ARCTIC TO T H E REST O F T H E W O R L D OCEAN AND ONE OF THE MAIN ROUTES THE BARENTS SEA). ATLANTIC WATER IS CARRIED 0.5 NORTHWARDS 0.0 AND -0.5 — •— A nom aly T 2-yr S m o o th ed D ata VOLUME STRONG BY T H E AND WEST HEAT SEASONAL A N D SPITSBERGEN FLUXES CURRENT, DEMONSTRATE INTERANNUAL VARIATIONS. A S I G N I F I C A N T PART O F T H E A W A L S O RECIRCULATES WITHIN SOUTHWARDS FRAM STRAIT AND RETURNS 2000 Also, in so u th ern Fram Strait, at 76°30'N, the averaged p ro p ertie s of AW in the W est Spitsbergen C u rren t (WSC) w ere slightly low er th a n in 2006, b u t still h ig h er th a n the lo n g -te rm m ean s. B oth tem p eratu re an d salinity tren d s for this perio d are positive (m axim um tem p eratu re w as 3.93°C and m axim um salinity 35.11). WHEREBY A T L A N T I C W A T E R ( A W ) E N T E RS T H E A R C T I C ( T H E O T H E R IS 1990 In n o rth e rn Fram Strait at 78°50'N , three characteristic areas can be d istin g u ish ed in relation to th e m ain flows: the W SC b e tw e e n th e shelf edge an d 5°E, th e R etu rn A tlantic C u rren t (RAC) b e tw e e n 3°W an d 5°E, an d Polar W ater in th e East G reen lan d C u rren t (EGC) b e tw e e n 3°W an d the G reen lan d Shelf. (RETURN ATLANTIC WATER). POLAR WATER FROM THE - 2.0 ARCTIC Data P rovider: IM R - Institu te o f M a rin e R e search - N orw a y Ref: IC E S R e po rt on O cean C lim a te 2 007 OCEAN GREENLAND FLOWS CURRENT SOUTHWARDS AND AFFECTS IN THE WATER EAST MASSES IN T HE N O R D I C SEAS. 0.20 — *— A nom aly S 0.15 2-yr S m o o th ed D ata 0.10 A lth o u g h a slight decrease in AW tem p eratu re and a fu rth er drop in salinity occurred in th e G reen lan d 0.05 Sea (75°N) in 2007 relative to 2006, th ey w ere still m u ch h ig h e r th a n th eir lo n g -term averages. A t the w e ste rn boundary, the salinity of R eturn A tlantic W ater (RAW) d ro p p ed significantly in 2007 from th e record high in 2006, as did tem p eratu re, w hich re tu rn e d to the lo n g -term m ean. 0.00 -0.05 - 0.10 -0.15 - 0.20 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 Y ear 2000 2005 In2007, tem p eratu re an d salinity from the u p p e r layer (50-500 m ) in the W SC, w hich h ad b e e n increasing for the last three years, d ro p p ed significantly from 2006, b u t w ere still m uch above th eir lo n g -term averages. In th e AW recirculating w ith th e RAC, tem p eratu re an d salinity w ere close to 2006 values. Also, m ean pro p erties in th e EGC rem ain ed sim ilar to th o se recorded in 2006, still significantly exceeding th e lo n g -te rm average. B ecause ice conditions p rev en ted sam p lin g in w e ste rn Fram Strait, a sm all increase in m e a n tem p eratu re in the EGC dom ain m ost likely resu lted from excluding a significant part of th e area occupied by cold Polar Water. 5 2 /5 3 ICES C o o p erativ e R esearch R eport N o. 291 ICES R ep o rt o n O cean C lim ate 2007 The increase in tem p e ra tu re a n d salinity, w h ich has b e e n observed in th e RAC an d EGC since 2003, is related to th e w estw ard shift of th e b o u n d a ry b e tw e e n th e recirculating A tlantic an d Polar W aters. The h y d rographic p ro p ertie s of A W (defined as w ater m ass w ith T >2°C a n d S >34.92) b a se d o n su m m er sections, w h ich h a d revealed a clear positive tren d over th e previous seven years, d ro p p e d significantly in 2007. Also, th e area of th e cross section occupied by AW (a proxy for th e a m o u n t of A W in Fram Strait), d eclined after five years of stead y increase. In 2007, a lth o u g h th e w estw ard lim it of th e recirculating AW w as n o t reached, th e o bserved AW layer thickness at th e w e ste rn e n d of th e section su g g ested th a t it co n tin u ed even farth er w est. A lth o u g h th ick n ess of th e A W layer in th e W SC in su m m er 2007 w as clearly low er th a n in 2006, th e AW layer w as even thicker in th e central a n d deep w e ste rn p a rt of Fram Strait th a n th e previous year. The m axim um AW tem p e ra tu re a n d th ick n ess w ere fo u n d in late w in te r an d early spring. The n o rth w a rd flow, a n d co n seq u en tly th e volum e tran sp o rt, in th e W SC from m o o rin g d a ta w as very h ig h in w in te r a n d sp rin g (sim ilar to extrem e values from 2005), b u t d ro p p ed significantly in su m m er 2007. A ccom panied b y h ig h tem p eratu res, the in creased volum e flux re su lted in a very h ig h h eat flux in w inter, follow ed b y a decrease in spring an d extrem ely lo w values in su m m er.T h e w in ter-cen tred averages of volum e an d h e a t tran sp o rt in th e W SC in 2006/2007 rem ain ed sim ilar to th e previous year. In su m m er 2007, an extrem e extent of very thick a n d com pact sea ice as w ell as an en o rm ously fast so u th w ard drift w ere observed in n o rth e rn Fram Strait. * —+ — T em p eratu re °C AW 1 1 1 1 Da t a Provi der: AWI - Alfred W e g e n e r Institute for Pol ar an d Mari ne R e s e a r c h - G e r m a n y Ref: I CE S Re por t o n O c e a n Cl i mat e 2 0 0 7 • Salinity RAW —+ — Salinity AW 35.15 35.10 35.05 35.00 34.95 34.90'----1980 Figure 61. Area 12 - Greenland Sea and Fram Strait. Temperature (upper panel) and salinity (lower panel) at 200 m in the Spitsbergen Section (76°30'N). Figure 62. Area 12 - Greenland Sea and Fram Strait. Temperature (upper panel) and salinity (lower panel) anomalies o f the Atlantic Water (AW ) and Return Atlantic Water (RAW) in the Greenland Sea Section at 75°N. A W properties are 50-150 m averages at 10-13°E. The R A W is characterized by temperature and salinity maxima below 50 m averaged over three stations west o fll.5 ° W . T em p eratu re °C RAW 1985 1990 1995 Y ear 2000 2005 45 T e m p eratu re °C 4D 5 4 /5 5 35 5 3D 4 25 3 Figure 63. Temperature °C W SC Aren 12 - Greenland Sea and Fram Strait. Temperatnre (npper panel) and salinity (lower panel) anom alies In Fram Strait <73 > 0 ’N ), in the W est Spitsbergen Cnrrent (WSC) between the sh elf edge and 5°E, R e h m i A tlantic Current (RAC) between 3°W and 5°E, and Polar W ater In the East Greenland Current (EGC) between 3 °W and the Greenland S h e lf for the 5 0 -5 0 0 m layer Temperature °C RAC Temperature °C EGC 2D 2 Da t a Provi der: I O P A S - Institute of O c e a n o l o g y Pol i s h A c a d e m y of S c i e n c e s - Pol and. Ref: I CE S Re por t o n O c e a n Cl i mat e 2 0 0 7 35.20 Salinity 0 35.15 35.10 Data P rovider: AW I - A lfred W e g e n e r Institu te fo r P olar and M a rin e R e search - G erm a n y Ref: IC E S R e po rt on O cean C lim a te 2007 35.05 352 35.00 34.95 1995 35. 1 1 1 2000 2005 350 Y ear 349 348 34. 7 - — Salinity WSC V E R Y T H I C K A N D C O M P A C T S E A ICE W A S O B S E R V E D +— Salinity RAC 346 IN N O R T H E R N ■ F R A M S T R A I T D U R I N G S U M M E R 200J. 345 1980 1985 Salinity EGC 1990 1995 Year 2000 2005 ICES C o o p erativ e R esearch R eport N o. 291 ICES R ep o rt o n O cean C lim ate 2007 5. DETAILED AREA DESCRIPTIONS, PART lis THE DEEP OCEAN IS F E D BY T H E C O L D A N D THE DEEPEST A N D OVERFLOW IN 5. 1 I n t r o d u c t io n IN THE WATER. ARCTIC THE In th is section, w e focus o n th e d e ep e r w ate rs of th e N ordic S eas a n d N o rth A tlantic, typically b e lo w 1000 m . T he gen eral circulation schem e an d d o m in a n t w a te r m asses are given in Figure 64. WATER BOUNDARY OF OUR REGION OF INTEREST, THE CO L D A N D D E N S E O U T F L O W FRO M THE ARCTIC OCEAN ENTERS FRAM STRAIT AND REACHES MASS ICELAND MIXING THE ORIGINATES WATER WITH DENMARK PRODUCED SEAS BY W I N T E R SURROUNDING STRAIT OVERFLOW T H E D E N M A R K S T R AI T SILL, V I G O R O U S L Y E N T R A I N I N G AMBIENT IN WATER. INTERMEDIATE WATER, THE DEEP, DOWNSTREAM, WATER FORMED MASS, BOUNDARY WATER IS OVERLAIN THE LABRADOR BY D E E P W I N T E R LABRADOR SEA. THE COLD IT MIDDLE EXPORT CURRENT IS IN THE SUPPLIED CONVECTION LAYER O F DEEP THE WESTERN BY T H E ICELAND T H E G R E E N L A N D S E A . T H E O U T F L O W IS A M I X T U R E O F S C O T L A N D O V E R F L O W WATER ORIGI N A T I N G IN WATER EURASIAN MASSES AND CANADIAN BASIN DEEP WATERS A N D FORMED UPPER POLAR DEEP WATER. TH E EURASIAN DEEP WATER INTERMEDIATE F E E D S T H E D E N S E S T W A T E R O F ALL N O R D I C S E A S , T H E WATER). GREENLAND THE BASIN SUPPLY SEA BOTTOM DEEP WATER THE GREENLAND ARCTIC SEA, AND WATER. UPPER POLAR INTERMEDIATE AND THE THE CANADIAN DEEP WATER WATER LATTER A L S O IN THE INCLUDES ICELAND SEA WATER. DEEP SO U TH W A R D OUTFLOW FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN T H E DE E P W E S T E R N BO U N DARY C U R R E N T THE SCOTLAND THE NORWEGIAN AND NORTH THROUGH UPPER OCEAN DEEP THE SOME AMOUNT THE ANTARCTIC OF THE WATER O N THE EASTERN SIDE. WATER AND DEEP BASIN, ALSO LABRADOR BOTTOM WATER THE W ESTERN SIDE LOWER OF (ARCTIC ICELANDIC WATER INFLOW SEA ATLANTIC OVERFLOW ENTERS THE NO RTH ATLANTIC O N ACCOMPANIES THE IN WATER PASSING ENTRAINS AND PRODUCTS OF THE WINTER CONVECTION. Figure 64. Schematic circulation o f the interm ediate-to-deep w aters in the Nordic Seas and North Atlantic. CBD W - Canadian Basin Deep Water; EBD W Eurasian Basin Deep Water; A I W - Arctic Intermediate Water; G SD W - Greenland Sea Deep Water; N S D W - Norwegian Sea Deep Water; D SO W - Denmark Strait Overflow Water; IS O W - Iceland Scotland Overflow Water; L S W - Labrador Sea Water; DWBC - Deep Western Boundary Current; A A B W Antarctic Bottom Water; M W - Mediterranean Water; LD W - Lower Deep Water. Possible convection regions marked by circled stars. AND AND MASSES. BY A N NORTHERN WATER 5.2 N o r d ic S e a s d e e p w a te r s W A T E R S I N K S T O T H E B O T T O M A S IT P A S S E S T H R O U G H SEA AT T H E THIS INTERMEDIATE GREENLAND CONVECTION D E N SE OVERFLOW WATERS. D E N S E S T IS T H E D E N M A R K S T R AI T DEEP WATER MEDITERRANEAN The deep w aters of th e G reen lan d , Iceland, and N o rw eg ian seas are all w arm ing. The longest tim e-series (the N o rw eg ian Sea, A rea 10) reveals w arm in g from th e m id-1980s; how ever, a slight decrease in tem p eratu re occurred in 2007. The co n tin u o u s w arm in g h as b e e n observed in the G reen lan d Sea deep layer at 3000 m (Area 12) and in th e Iceland Sea in th e d e p th range 1500-1800 m since th e b e g in n in g of th e tim e-series (early 1990s, A rea 3). The w arm in g rates p er decade are 0.13°C (G reenland Sea), 0.06°C (N orw egian Sea), and 0.06°C (Iceland Sea). The source of th e w arm in g is th e deep outflow from the Arctic O cean, a so u th going current of th e E urasian a n d C an ad ian Basin D eep W aters an d u p p e r Polar D eep W ater fo u n d on th e w estern side of Fram Strait aro u n d a d e p th of 2000 m . The G reen lan d Sea D eep W ater is w arm ing fastest ow ing to th e m o st direct contact w ith this Arctic outflow, w h ereas th e Iceland an d N orw egian Seas are w arm in g m ore slow ly because th ey are p ro d u cts of m ixing b etw e e n th eir ow n am b ien t w aters w ith G reen lan d Sea D eep W ater an d Arctic outflow w ater. 1200 m , sim ilar to th a t observed the previous w inter. The G reen lan d Sea D eep W ater h a d previously in cluded a sm all adm ixture of surface fresh w ater th ro u g h the convective process and, therefore, h ad a low er salinity th a n th e Arctic outflow w aters. The observed increase in the G reen lan d Sea D eep W ater salinity is likely an ad ju stm en t to the Arctic outflow in th e co n tin u ed absence of deep convection. It is n o t clear th a t th ere h as b e e n an y corresp o n d in g salinity tre n d in eith er th e N o rw eg ian or Iceland Sea D eep W aters in recen t decades. A fter som e decrease in th e early 1990s, salinity in b o th deep b asins has rem ain ed relatively stable the last decade. THE DEEP WATERS OF THE G R E E N L A N D , ICELAND, A N D N O R W E G I A N S E A S A R E ALL WARMING. The d o m in g structure in th e G reen lan d G yre is b ein g replaced by a tw o-layered w ater m ass arran g em en t, after a cessation of deep convection. Since the b e g in n in g of m e asu rem en ts in 1993, th e w in ter convection d e p th h as varied b e tw e e n 700 m and 1600 m , an d only in sm all-scale convective eddies w as it significantly deeper. In w in te r 2006/2007, the m axim um convection d e p th w as estim ated to be D ata P rovider: A W I - A lfre d W e g e n e r Institu te fo r P o la r and M a rin e R e sea rch - G erm any Ref: IC E S R e p o rt on O cean C lim a te 2007 1600 — ■— C onvection D epth (dbar) 1400 1200 1000 800 600 1994 1999 2004 Y ear Figure 65. Area 12 - Greenland Sea and Fram Strait. W inter convection depths in the Greenland Sea Section at 75°N. 5 6 /5 7 ICES C o o p erativ e R esearch R eport N o. 291 F igure 66. Area 12 - Greenland Sea and Fram Strait. Temperature (upper panel) and salinity (lower panel) at 3000 m in the Greenland Sea Section at 75°N. ICES R ep o rt o n O cean C lim ate 2007 -0.95 F igure 68. Area 10 - Norwegian Sea. Temperature (upper panel) and salinity (lower panel) at 2000 m at Ocean Weather Station "Mike" (66°N 2°E). Temperature °C - 5-yr Smoothed Data 1.00 -1.05 - 1.10 * -1.15 - Pot. Temp°C. 1.2 0 -1.25 Da t a Provider: Ge o p h y s i c a l Institute - Uni versi ty of B e r g e n - No r wa y Ref: I CE S Re por t o n O c e a n Cl i mat e 2 0 0 7 Dat a Provider: AWI - Alfred W e g e n e r Institute for Pol ar a n d Mari ne R e s e a r c h - Ge r ma n y Ref: I CE S Re por t o n O c e a n Cl i mat e 2 0 0 7 Salinity 34 .915 - 5-yr Smoothed Data 34.920 3 4 .9 1 0 3 4 .9 1 5 3 4 .9 0 5 - 34.910 3 4 .9 0 0 - Salinity 1992 2002 1997 2007 34.905 1945 1955 1965 Year 1975 Year 1985 1995 2005 5 8 /5 9 5.3 North Atlantic deep waters Dat a Provider: Haf ranns oknas t of nuni n - I cel and - Mari ne R e s e a r c h Institute Ref: I CES Re por t o n O c e a n Cl i mat e 2 0 0 7 F igure 67. Area 3 - Icelandic Waters. Temperature at 1500-1800 m in the Iceland Sea (68°N 12°40'W). -0.78 - o .æ -0.82 -o .m -o.æ - 0.88 -0.90 * Temperature °C 5-yr Smoothed Data -o.æ In the deep layers of th e F a ro e-S h etla n d C h an n el (Area 7), th e pro p erties at 800 m are th e sam e as th o se of N o rw eg ian Sea D eep W ater as it passes th ro u g h the C h an n el back into the N o rth A tlantic. A fter a perio d of decline in th e 1990s, tem p eratu re h as increased since 2000 , b u t still rem ain s low er th a n th e h ig h est tem p eratu res observed in the 1950s, 1960s, a n d early 1980s. The relatively stable salinity in th e first p erio d of m e asu rem en ts (1950 to m id-1970s) w as follow ed by a slow decline th ro u g h th e next 15 years; since 1992, it h as stabilized again. A slight decrease w as observed in tem p eratu re and salinity from 2006 to 2007. Salinity an d p o ten tial tem p eratu re of th e D en m ark Strait O verflow W ater n e a r C ape Farew ell (Area 5b) d em o n strate considerable w ell-correlated in te ra n n u a l variations b e tw e e n 1991 an d 2006 (correlation = 0 .7 ).The lo n g -te rm tren d s in salinity an d tem p eratu re for the p erio d 1991-2007 are n o t significant. The lo n g -te rm sta n d ard deviations of tem p eratu re an d salinity are 0.15°C an d 0.014, respectively. In 2007 an d 2006, th e tw o h ig h est D en m ark Strait O verflow W ater tem p eratu re values since 1991 w ere observed. Evidence from a m oo red tem p eratu re salinity sen so r suggests th a t th e d o m in an t tim e-scale of hydrographic variability is ab o u t eight m o n th s, w ell less th a n a year. In deep w aters at th e C ape D esolation station (at 2000 m , A rea 1), w h ich rep resen ts th e W est G reen lan d an d D eep W estern B oundary C urrents, an increase in tem p eratu re an d salinity w as observed b etw e e n 1984 an d 1989, follow ed by a cooling and fresh en in g tre n d th a t co n tin u ed u n til th e late 1990s. A n increase in tem p eratu re (~0.3°C p er decade) has b e e n observed since 1997, an d an increase in salinity (-0.05 p er decade) h as b e e n observed since 1998. T H E H I G H E S T T E M P E R A T U R E IN D E N M A R K STRAIT O V E R F L O W WATER W A S O B S E R V E D I N 200J. ICES C oo p erativ e Research R eport N o. 291 Figure 69. Area 7 -F a ro e-S h etla n d Channel. Tenipemtnre (npper panel) and sa lin ity (lower panel) at 800 m in the Faroe-Shetland Channel. ICES R ep o rt on O cean C lim ate 2007 0.4 Figure 71. ■ — ■— T e m p eratu re °C 0.2 5-yr S m o o th ed D ata 0.0 3.3 0.2 32 -0.4 3.1 - 0.6 3.0 - 0.1 29 - T em p eratu re °C 3.4 D ata P rovider: In stitu t fu r S e e fisch ere i - G erm a ny - Institu te fo r S ea Fish e rie s Ref: ICE S R e po rt on O cean C lim a te 2007 D ata P rovider: FR S - F ish e rie s R e search S e rvice s - A berd ee n - UK Ref: IC E S R e po rt on O cean C lim a te 2007 34.96 35.00 — ■— Salinity 5-yr S m o o th ed D ata 34.98 Salinity 34.94 34.96 34.92 34.94 34.90 34.92 34.88 34.90 34.86 34.88 1950 Area 1 - W est Greenland. Temperature (upper panel) and salinity (lower panel) at 2000 m at Cape Desolation Station 3, in the W est Greenland Current. 1960 1970 1980 Y ear 1990 2000 1980 1985 1990 1995 Y ear 2000 2005 Belone R V "Lance” at the ice edge in Fram Strait. Image courtesy o f A . Beszczynska-Möller, ÄW 1, Germany. Figure 70. Area 5b Irm inger Sea. Temperature (upper panel) and sa lin ity (lowerpanel) in D enm ark S tra it Overflow W ater on the East Greenland Slope. 5. 4 N o r t h A t la n t ic in t e r m e d ia t e w a t e r s 'M ^^ 12 1.1 10 09 T em p eratu re °C 08 D ata P rovider: K o n in klijk N e d e rla n d s In stitu u t v o o r Z e e o n d e rz o e k (N IO Z) - R oyal N e the rla n ds Institu te fo r S ea Research Ref: IC E S R e po rt on O cea n C lim a te 2007 34.92 Salinity 34.91 34.90 In th e central Irm inger Sea (Area 5b), th e cold and low -salinity core w as observed b etw een 1600 m and 2000 m in th e early 1990s as a result of the deep L abrador Sea W ater (LSW) fo rm atio n in 19881995. Since 1996, a q u asi-co n tin u o u s increase in tem p eratu re an d salinity h as b e e n observed (w ith one exception in 2000 , w hen b o th properties dropped tem porarily) as th e LSW m ixes w ith su rro u n d in g w ater m asses. The tem p eratu re in 2007 re tu rn e d to its h ig h est value, w h ich h a d b e e n observed only once at th e b eg in n in g of m easu rem en ts, before th e cooling period. A fter a levelling of th e salinity b e tw e e n 2002 an d 2005, it increased again in 2006 an d declined slightly in 2007. 34.89 34.88 34.87 34.86 34.85 1990 1995 2000 Y ear 2005 In th e Rockall Trough (Area 5), the core of the L abrador Sea W ater at 1800-2000 m is defined as the p a rt of th e w ater colum n w ith th e low est stratification. This d e e p -w a te r m ass d e m o n strated co n tin u ed cooling, a tre n d th a t h as d o m in ated the entire tim e-series.T h e sim ilar lo n g -te rm fresh en in g tre n d h as also continued; in 2007, b o th tem p eratu re an d salinity reach ed reco rd -lo w values. In particular, tem p eratu re d ecreased significantly after a tran sien t p eak in 2006, a n d salinity w as low er by 0.05 th a n th e last-d ecad e m axim um in 2005. 6 0 /6 1 ICES C oo p erativ e Research R eport N o. 291 ICES R ep o rt on O cean C lim ate 2007 CONTACT INFORMATION Area Figure 72. Aren 5b Inninger Sen. Tem pem ture (upper pnnel) nnd sn ltn tty (lower pnnel) ofLnbrndor Sen W nter (nvernged over 1 6 0 0 2000 m). Figures T im e-series C ontact In stitu te 1 West Greenland 10 N uuk Air Temperature Manfred Stein (manfre d. stein@vti .bund .de) Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, and Seewetteramt, Hamburg 1 West Greenland 11,12, 71 Fylla Section and Cape Desolation Section Manfred Stein (manfred.stein@vti.bund.de) Institut für Seefischerei (Institute for Sea Fisheries), Germany 2 Northw est Atlantic 13,14,15 Sable Island Air Temperature, C abot Straight Sea lee, Misaine Bank, Emerald Bank Brian Petrie (PetrieB@mar.dfo -m po.gc .ca) BIO (Bedford Institute of Oceanography), Fisheries an d Oceans Canada 2 Northw est Atlantic 16,17,18 Sea lee, Cartwright Air Temperature, Station 27, CIL Eugene Colboume (colbourn@dfo-mpo.gc.ca) Northw est Atlantic Fisheries Centre, Canada 2b Labrador Sea 19,20,21 Section AR7W Ross Hendry (hendryr@dfo - m po.gc. ca) Bedford Institute of O ceanography (BIO), Departm ent of Fisheries and Oceans Canada 2c M id-Atlantic Bight 22 O leander an d East of Boston Section Bob Pickart (rpickart@whoi. e du) Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, US 2c M id-Atlantic Bight 23,24 Georges Bank M aureen Taylor (mtaylor@mercury.w h .whoi, edu) NOAA Fisheries, NEFSC Oceanography Branch, US 3 Icelandic Waters 26,27,28, 29,67 Air tem peratures, Siglunes Station 2-4, Selvogsbanki Station 5, Langanes Station 2-6, Deep D ata 1800 m H e dinn Valdimarsson (hv@hafro.is) Hafrannsoknastofnunin (Marine Research Institute), Iceland 4 Bay of Biscay 30 San Sebastian sea surface tem perature and air temperature VictorValencia (walencia@p as .azti.es) AZTI, Aquarium of San Sebastian (SOG) and Igeldo Meteorological Observatory (AEMet) in San Sebastian, Spain 4 Bay of Biscay 31,32 Santander Station 6 (shelf break) Alicia Lavin (alicia .lavin@st.ieo.es) Instituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO; Spanish Institute of Oceanography), Spain 4b Northw est European Continental Shelf 33,34 Station E l 10 m salinity C ontinental Shelf Tim J. Smyth (tjsm@pml.ac.uk) Marine Biological Association and Plymouth Marine Laboratory, UK 4b Northw est European Continental Shelf 35 Malin H ead Weather Station G lenn Nolan (Glenn .N olan@marine .ie) Marine Institute (Met Eireann), Ireland 4b Northw est European Continental Shelf 36 M l Marine W eather Buoy Sheena Fennel (Sheena. Fennell@marine .ie) Marine Institute (Met Eireann), Ireland 5 Rockall Trough 37,73 Eilet Line N. Penny Holliday (nph@noc .soton.ac.uk) National Oceanography Centre, Southam pton an d Scottish Association for Marine Science, UK 5b Irminger Sea 38, 70, 72 Irminger Sea H. M. van Aken (aken@nioz.nl) Koninklijk Nederlands Instituut voor Zeeonderzoek (NIOZ; Royal N etherlands Institute for Sea Research) 6 Faroe Bank Channel 39,40 Faroe Bank Channel Faroe Current Bogi H ansen (bogihan@frs .fo) Fiskirannsoknarstovan (Faroese Fisheries Laboratory), Faroe 6 Faroe Bank Channel 41 Faroe Coastal Oyrargjogv Karin Margretha Larsen (KarinL@frs.fo) Fiskirannsoknarstovan (Faroese Fisheries Laboratory), Faroe 7 Faroe-Shetland Channel 42,43, 69 Faroe-Shetland Channel Sarah H ughes (s.hughes@marlab.ac.uk) Fisheries Research Services (FRS), Aberdeen, UK 8&9 N orth Sea 44 Modelled N orth Sea Inflow Morten Skogen (morten@imr.no) Institute of Marine Research (IMR), Norway 8&9 N orth Sea 45 N orth Sea Utsira Solfrid Hjollo (solfrid.hjollo@imr.no) Institute of Marine Research (IMR), Norway 8&9 N orth Sea 46 Fair Isle Current Water Sarah H ughes (s.hughes@marlab.ac.uk) Fisheries Research Services (FRS), Aberdeen, UK 8&9 N orth Sea 47 H elgoland Roads, Coastal Waters, G erman Bight N orth Sea Karen Wiltshire (kwiltshire @awi -brem erhaven .de) Alfre d- We gener- Institut/Biologische Anstalt H elgoland (AWI/BAH), Germany 8&9 N orth Sea 48 Section Average, Felixstowe, Rotterdam, 52°N Stephen Dye (Stephen.dye @cefas.co .uk) Centre for Environment Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (CEFAS), UK 8&9 N orth Sea 49 Sea Surface Temperature N orth Sea Average Peter Lowe (peter .loewe@bsh .de) Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie, Germany 9b Baltic Sea 50,51 Baltic Proper, East of Gotland Baltic Sea Karin Borenas (karin .borenas@smhi.se) Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Sweden 9b Baltic Sea 52, 53,54 Baltic Sea, LL7, SR5 Pekka Alenius (pekka.alenius@fimr.fi) Finnish Institute of Marine Research (FIMR), Finland 9b Baltic Sea 55 Baltic Proper, SMHI Observed lee Extent Karin Borenas (karin .borenas@smhi. se) Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Sweden 10 Norwegian Sea 56 Svinoy, Gimsoy, an d Sorkapp Section Kjell Arne Mork (kjell .am e .mork@imr.no) Institute of Marine Research (IMR), Norway 10 Norwegian Sea 57, 58,68 O cean Weather Station "M ike", 50 m Svein 0 sterh u s (Svein.Osterhus@gfi .uib .no) Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Norway 11 Barents Sea 59 Fugloya, Bear Island Section Western Barents Sea, Atlantic Inflow Randi Ingvaldsen (randi .ingvaldsen@imr.no) Institute of Marine Research (IMR), Norway 11 Barents Sea 60 Kola Section, Eastern Barents Sea Oleg V. Titov Knipovich Polar Research Institute of Marine Fisheries an d Oceanography (PINRO), Russia 12 Greenland Sea and Fram Strait 61 G reenland Sea Section West of Spitsbergen 76.5°N Waldemar Walczowski (walczows@iopan.gda.pl) Institute of Oceanology, Polish Academy of Sciences (IOPAS), Poland 12 G reenland Sea and Fram Strait 62,65,66 G reenland Sea Section 75°N G. Budeus (Gereon.Budeus@awi.de) Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), Germany 12 G reenland Sea and Fram Strait 63 Fram Strait, West Spitsbergen Current, Section Average 5°E to shelf edge A. Beszczynska-Möller (abeszczynska@awi-bremerhaven.de) Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), Germany 3.15 3.10 3.05 3.00 2.95 2.90 2.85 — 1— T e m p eratu re °C 2.80 2.75 Data P rovider: K on in klijk N e d e rla n d s In stitu u t v o o r Z e e o n d e rz o e k (N IO Z) - R oyal N e the rla n ds Institute fo r S ea Research Ref: IC E S R e po rt on O cea n C lim a te 2007 34.93 34.92 34.91 34.90 34.89 34.88 Salinity 34.87 34.86 34.85 1990 2000 1995 2005 Y ear Figure 73. Aren 5 Rocknll Trough. Tem pem ture (upper pnnel) nnd sn ltn tty (lower pnnel) ofLnbrndor Sen W nter (depth 1 8 0 0 -2000 m). 40 — ■— T em perature °C 39 5-yr S m o o th ed D ata 38 3.7 36 35 3.4 33 32 Data P rovider: N ational O ce a n o g ra p h y C e ntre S o u tha m p ton and S cottish A ssociatio n fo r M a rin e S cie nce Ref: IC E S R e po rt on O cean C lim a te 2 007 35.04 — ■— Salinity 35.02 5-yr S m o o th ed D ata 35.00 34.98 34.96 34.94 34.92 34.90 34.88 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 Year 2000 2005