Outlook for Ireland and EU
Beef / Livestock Supplies
Joe Burke
January 2013
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
AIDAN COTTER
Growing
the success
CHIEF
EXECUTIVE
BORD BIA
of Irish28food
& horticulture
JANUARY
2009
Supply Review and Outlook
• Irish Cattle Availability
• EU Beef Production
• Price Situation
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Head / Week
ROI weekly finished cattle supplies (head)
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2011
2012
11% Decline in 2012 Cattle Supplies
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Trends in National Cattle Herd By Age, November 1st 2012
(Change in head on 2011)
Head
+103,972
100,000
Males
+74,238
80,000
60,000
+45,719
40,000
Females
+39,790
+31,438
+15,561
20,000
+3,543
+12,351
0
-20,000
-3,653
-12,885 -12,100
0-6
-16,590
06-12
12-18
18-24
24-30
30-36
Age (Months)
2012 Calf Registrations +3.7% / +77,000
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Live Exports -25% / -55,000
Cattle Supply Forecast 2013
• Calf registrations increased by 99,000 head in 2011 vs. 2010.
• Exports of calves and weanlings fell by 111,000 head in ‘11 vs. ‘10.
• Increased heifer retention
• Popularity of young bull production
However:
• Live exports
• Producer decisions
• Cull cows
Likely range: 100-150,000 fewer finished cattle
available
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Throughput Forecast – Export Meat Plants
(000’ head)
2011
2012
2013 (F)
Steers
578
466
530 - 570
Y Bulls
185
207
200 - 220
Heifers
415
352
370 - 380
Cows
337
330
340 - 350
Other
55
40
40 - 45
Total
1,570
1,396
1,500 – 1,550
Most of this increase likely in second half of 2013
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
European Markets
Cattle Supplies 2012
UK
•
•
•
•
Throughput -6.3%
Prime cattle -7.6%
Cull cows -1.6%
Calf births recover
Germany
• Throughput -1.5%
France
•
•
•
•
Throughput -5.7%
Y. Bulls -6.5%
Cull cows -4.8%
Italy
(EU Commission)
Live Exps: -3.1% • Throughput -4%
Spain
• Cattle imports -10%
• Throughput -1.5%
• Males aged <12mo.s -8%
• Live imports -17%
• Live exports +54%
EU Beef Production in 2012 4.8% lower than 2011
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
EU-27 Beef Production Trend 2011 - 2013
-1.7
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
-2.1
-1.5
N/C.
N/C.
2011
+8%
+1%
-2%
2012(e)
2013(f)
Source: EU working beef forecasting group
Further decline of 0.5% forecast for 2013
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Producer Prices: Ireland vs. Europe & UK
470
R3 male, (€/kg dw excl. VAT)
420
370
Ireland R3 steers
320
UK R3 steers
270
EU R3 males
220
(w/e 29/12) Irish Price €3.91/kg, EU-15 Av. €3.97/kg; UK €4.44/kg
In Italy, R-grade young bull price: €4.17/kg, Spain: €3.92, France: €3.91, Germany €4.23
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Outlook for Ireland and EU
Beef / Livestock Supplies
Joe Burke
January 2013
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
AIDAN COTTER
Growing
the success
CHIEF
EXECUTIVE
BORD BIA
of Irish28food
& horticulture
JANUARY
2009