Beef Market Outlook
January 2015
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
AIDAN COTTER
BORD BIA
Growing
the success of Irish food
& horticulture
CHIEF
EXECUTIVE
28 JANUARY
2009
Mark Zieg
Distribution of Irish Beef Exports
Inc. offals
%
50
40
Irish Beef Exports 2014
50 50
47
45
30
20
530,000
tonnes
€2.06bn
+1%
+13%
10
3 5
0
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
UK
Cont. EU
Int. Markets
Beef Consumption in European Markets 2014
Volume
Value
5
3.6
3
2
%age
Change
-1
-1.8
-2
-3
-2.2
-3
-4.3
UK
Ireland
France
Germany
Italy
Spain
Sources: GFK, Kantar, EU Beef Forecast Working Group
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Beef Consumption Forecast 2015
1.3
0.7
Fra
0.5
Spain
Sweden
-0.1
UK
Ger
Italy
Bel
NL
0
DK
-0.7
-1.2
-1.7
-3.2
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Source: EU Beef Forecast Working Group
EU Total Beef Consumption, ‘000 tonnes
7,400
Beef consumption
remaining sluggish
7,200
7,000
-0.4%
-0.7%
2014
2015 (f)
6,800
6,600
6,400
2012
2013
Source: EU Beef Forecast Working Group
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Source:
EU Beef
Forecasting
Group
Imports/Exports
Imports
UK
Italy
Germany
France
Holland
Sweden
2013
399
397
397
347
345
137
2014
402
408
360
320
335
139
2015
394
409
350
310
326
141
Exports
UK
Italy
Germany
France
Holland
Sweden
2013
131
117
495
240
230
14
2014
126
105
468
230
227
15
2015
133
107
448
250
227
14
Weaker Demand from
UK, France and Germany
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Strong Import demand
for Italy and Sweden
EU Beef Imports/Exports 2014(Jan-Sept)
‘000 tonnes cwe
170
Imports
Exports
150
130
110
90
70
50
2012
2013
2014
EU-27 Beef Imports -1% EU-27 Beef Exports +27%
Source: Eurostat
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Key Export Destinations Jan-Sept
2014
2013
2014
Norway
Ghana
Macedonia
Angola
Hong Kong
Croatia
Switzerland
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Russia
2012
Source: Eurostat
0
5000
10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Global Beef Production 2009 - 2015
-360,000t
Australia
Total Production -470,000 tonnes in 3 years
US Decline = 1.2 mt in 3 years
Argentina
2015 f
2014
2009
+300,000t
Brazil
-500,000t
USA
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Source: Gira, USDA
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Global Beef Exports 2013-2015
Total Exports to decrease 0.8%
Brazilian exports to increase by 140,000t
Argentina
Canada
Australian Exports to decline by 270,000t
Uruguay
New Zealand
2015
2014
2013
-50,000t
USA
-270,000t
Australia
+90,000t
India
+140,000t
Brazil
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Source: Gira, USDA
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Per Capita Beef Consumption
80
Kg/hd
70
Growth coming from Asia, Middle East and Africa
60
USA
50
Argentina
Brazil
EU
40
Russia
30
MENA
South Africa
20
China
Korea
10
0
2003
2005
2007
2009
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
2011
2013
2015
Source: Gira
Beef Expenditure
Beef Expenditure reflecting consumption
But moreso rising consumer prices
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Beef Markets Summary 2015
• Higher Irish beef output in 2014 constrained by lower prices
• EU consumption set to remain sluggish
• EU Exports growth in 2014- imports lower
• Global production in decline => US and Australian contraction
• Lower Exports => Australian decline outweighs Brazilian increase
• International consumption growth driven by Asia, MENA and South Africa
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Beef Outlook 2015 - Mark Zieg
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Thank You