Economic Outlook
An Bord Bia
Annual Food and Drinks
Industry Day
November 05, 2009
Austin Hughes, KBC Bank
It’s Not the Great Depression…
But It’s Close
 
Normal Service Resumed?
 
Wealth Destruction Will Restrain
Recovery
 
Credit Still Crunched
 
US Economy Is Turning
 
A Bumpy Road Lies Ahead In Europe
 
Out of Balance
 
The Other Side Of The Coin
 
So What About Ireland?
 
Irish Jobs Market Has Changed
Dramatically

Right hand side

Left hand side
A Paler Shade Of Grey
 
House Prices and Building Still
Sliding
 
Budget Worries Persist
 
Irish Consumers Slightly Less
Gloomy
 
Poorer Sentiment Has Hit
Spending
 
Diagram 4: Turning to the broader Irish economy,
how do you feel compared to three months ago?
Increased
Decreased
100%
86%
81%
80%
83%
79%
73%
63%
60%
40%
20%
40%
33%
29%
17%
3%
0%
 
3%
1%
3%
6%
8%
AutumnSummer Spring Winter AutumnSummer Spring Winter
2009
2009
2009
2008 2008
2008
2008
2007
Diagram 1: Apart from normal seasonal patterns, how has
your company's level of business changed in the past three
months?
Increased
69%
70%
60%
50%
Decreased
66%
59%
59%
49%
45%
40% 41%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
 
29%
22%
22%
16%
12%
23%
16%
9%
AutumnSummer Spring Winter AutumnSummer Spring Winter
2009
2009
2009
2008 2008
2008
2008
2007
Diagram 2: Apart from the normal seasonal patterns of the
next three months, do you expect your company's level of
business activity to?
Increase
Decrease
70%
59%
60%
52%
50%
40%
30%
20%
62%
46%
45%
38% 38%
35%
30%
31%
27%
21%
18%
17%
19%
13%
10%
0%
 
Autumn Summer Spring Winter Autumn Summer Spring Winter
2009
2009
2009
2008
2008
2008
2008
2007
Commodities Still Say The World
Is Changing
 
Where Next For Food Prices?
 
Summary
 The recession is over
 The hangover will persist
 Recovery will be bumpy
 Confidence and costs hold the key
 