Cli t Change:
Climate
C
Ch
Already In Our Back
B
Yard 2009
Arctic Amplification
p
a thin
hi Layer!
O
Oneida
Lake
Live
erpool
Current Tren
nds in Co2
nds
Source: NASA GISS
Source: NASA GISS
How “Glob
bal” Is it ?
Is the whole p
planet wa
arming,
g, or maybe
y just
j
parts of it?
February ‘07
07 Snowburst:
January 200
09…COLD !
J l (Summer
July
(S
r)) 2009 B
Below
l
Normal Tem
mperature…
mperature
“Doesn’t soun
nd like global
warming to me….”
Let’s Loo
ok North
Part Two: The Arcttic 2007, 2008, 2009
North
America
Europe
Africa
South
America
Asia
The Average temperaturre in Syracuse has risen
1.5 - 2 Degrees F in tthe last 100 Years…
The Average Temperatu
ure in Alaska has risen
3.5 Degrees
g
in th
he last 50 Years!
K i T
Kevin
Torres
McCarty Fjords, Kenai Fjord
ds National Park, Alaska.
McCarty Glacier Ju
uly 30, 1909
S
Snow
and
d Ice
I Data
D t C
Center/World
t /W ld D
Data
t C
Center
t ffor Gl
Glaciology,
i l
B
Boulder
ld
McCarty Fjords, Kenai Fjord
ds National Park, Alaska.
Aug 11, 2004
S
Snow
and
d Ice
I Data
D t C
Center/World
t /W ld D
Data
t C
Center
t ffor Gl
Glaciology,
i l
B
Boulder
ld
1941 by W.O. Field on White Thun
nder Ridge, Muir Inlet,
Glacier Bay National Park and
d Preserve, Alaska.
now and
d Ice
I Data
D t C
Center/World
t /W ld D
Da
ata
t C
Center
t ffor Gl
Glaciology,
i l
Boulder
B ld
Muir Inlet, Glacier Bayy National Pa
ark and Preserve, Alaska.
August 31, 20
004
S
Snow
and
d Ice
I Data
D t C
Center/World
t /W ld D
Data
t C
Center
t ffor Gl
Glaciology,
i l
B
Boulder
ld
Arctic Sea Ic
ce Plunges
Siberia
Alaska
Greenland
Arctic
Icecline
July2007
7, 2009
Arctic
Sea Sea
Ice Dec
& 2008
SO
O:
What does all of
o this mean for
Central New Y
York Weather ?
US HERE !
US,
et’s think,
What drives the Ea
arth’s Weather ?
) The Sun of Course
1) Warmer at the Equattor
2) Colder at the Poles
s
) This difference in he
eating over our plane
drives the winds alo
oft around the world.
“Normal”
Normal Temperature
Temperature Distribution
“Normal”
Normal Temperature
Temperature Distribution
This change in the slope
s
of our
atmosphere’s
atmosphere
s depth
h may begin
to change the winds
s aloft. It might
already be doing so
o.
As the Atmosphere Warms
s,
It expands upward
upward.
egrees North
orth Pole)
0 Degrees Latitude
(Equator)
Differential Heating
g bettween the equator
q
And the poles drives th
he westerlies aloft.
Now consider a scenario whe
ere the air at the poles
isn’t so cold anymore.
a
What does that do to the w
westerlies Aloft ?
F one thi
For
thing, th
the stronger
t
w t li shift
westerlies
hift south.
th
Warm North, Cold South
July 2009
Fairbanks: Fifteen 80˚ Days….91˚
D
on the 9th.
Syracuse: Thirteen 8
80˚ Days….No
80
Days No 90s
90s.
In the Win
nter, This
can be nasty!
Greenlan
nd Block
Januarry 2004
January
Ja
nuaryy 2004
The “Perfect” Weather
W
Pattern
Lk. Superior
Lk. Hurron
Lk. Ontario
Lk. Michigan
Lk. Erie
Th results
The
lt off the
th G
Gre
eenland
l d Block:
Bl k
Release Date: April 14,
14 2004
LBANY, N.Y. – The Federal Emergen
ncy Management Agency
anno nced that the first
announced
fi st $1 million iin federal
fede al disaster
disaste aid…..
aid
. has been approved for local gove
ernments and non
non-profit
profit
organizations in Cayuga, Oneida, Osswego and Lewis counties.
We did it again
n! Feb 2007
n!
We did it again
n! Feb 2007
FEMA: February 2007 Lake
L
Effect Snowstorm
“February 23, 2007, (The President) declared a
federal emergency…to
o help recover from the
February 2-12, 2007… la
ake-effect snowstorms.
Counties eligible for ass
sistance include Lewis,
Oneida and
Oneida
d Oswego.”
O
We did it again
n! Feb 2007
February 200
07 Lake Effect
North Redfield
Redfield, NY
Carol Yerdon
Parish New York
Parish,
Mike Osborn
We did it again
n! Feb 2007
n!
SUNY Oswego
Matt Wintercorn
The Fu
uture:
Computer Forecasts and
Computer
Modeling
p
g
car.ucar.edu/index.php/ncar/articles/newe
est_ccsm3_animation_shows_four_ipcc_sce
est_ccsm3_animation_shows_four_ipcc_sce
60--95 YEARS
60
Forests Now
e National Assessment Synthesis Team,
S Global Change Research Program
Published in 2000
The Fu
uture
Unless Someth
hing Changes
Locally: New York Winters:
W
rage: Warmer weather. More sleet and freezing rai
ns.
days with snow on the gro
ound
periods
p
of atmospheric
p
b
blocking,
g, very
y intense La
snows. (Warmer lakes, les
ss Ice cover.)
The Fu
uture
Unless Someth
hing Changes
Locally: New York Su
ummers:
rage: Warmer weather?
Maybe
e, Maybe Not…..
periods of atmospheric blocking,
b
Potentially Coo
Sustainability
Market D
Driven
EROI: Energy
gy Retu
urn on Investment
No Action: Stee
ep Social and
Environmen
ntal Costs
used as many resources as the U.S.:
It would take Two - Five Plane
ets to support us.
ets
moral responsibility
o our planet
future generations
To those who are left with
the consequences