U.S. Mortgage Backed Securities Market January 29, 2006 Thomas Zimmerman Executive Director U.S. Securitized Products Strategy Group U.S. Mortgage Backed Securities Market Size and importance History Securitization concepts Cash flow basics — — — Prepayments Average Life Variations Option Adjustment Spread CMOs Non-Agency market New affordability products Impact of housing price appreciation 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 1 U.S. Debt Securities Outstanding ($ Billions) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Q3 U.S. Treasury Mortgages Corporate 1,437.7 372.1 776.5 1,619.0 534.4 959.6 1,724.7 672.1 1,074.9 1,821.3 772.4 1,195.7 1,945.4 971.5 1,292.5 2,195.8 1,333.4 1,350.4 2,471.6 1,636.9 1,454.7 2,754.1 1,937.0 1,557.0 2,989.5 2,144.7 1,674.7 3,126.0 2,251.6 1,755.6 3,307.2 2,352.1 1,937.5 3,444.7 2,486.1 2,122.2 3,441.8 2,680.2 2,359.0 3,340.5 2,955.2 2,708.6 3,266.0 3,334.2 3,046.5 2,951.9 3,564.7 3,358.6 2,967.5 4,125.5 3,835.4 3,204.9 4,704.9 4,094.1 3,574.9 5,309.1 4,462.0 3,943.6 5,472.5 4,704.5 4,066.1 5,752.1 4,982.2 Agencies 293.9 307.4 341.4 381.5 411.8 434.7 442.8 484.0 570.7 738.9 844.6 925.8 1,022.6 1,300.6 1,620.0 1,854.6 2,149.6 2,292.8 2,636.7 2,745.1 2,555.7 AssetBacked 0.9 7.2 12.9 29.3 51.3 89.9 129.9 163.7 199.9 257.3 316.3 404.4 535.8 731.5 900.8 1,071.8 1,281.1 1,543.3 1,693.7 1,827.8 1,922.6 Source: Bond Market Association 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 2 Trends in Approved Asset Classes—1998– 2005 (% of Central Banks which have approved the asset class) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Asset class U.S. Agencies Supranationals Sovereign Eurobonds Sovereign Globals Pfandbriefes Bank Debt MBS / ABS Corporates Landesbank Debt Yankee Bonds TIPs Local Government Canadian Provinces Equities 2005 82 74 60 54 48 41 39 38 37 19 16 14 9 5 2004 76 63 60 50 44 21 39 38 33 12 9 12 10 3 2003 78 62 58 56 38 24 27 32 27 14 na 14 10 2 2002 75 60 58 54 35 21 22 28 30 16 na 16 8 na 2001 71 62 61 52 37 26 17 22 30 22 na 16 9 na 2000 62 54 60 44 34 20 19 20 32 28 na 18 10 na 1999 68 63 66 50 28 16 12 15 28 12 na 18 10 na 1998 54 60 66 34 12 4 2 10 12 18 na 8 12 na Source: UBS Central Bank Surveys, 1998-2005 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 3 Risk/Reward — Fixed Income Asset Classes Nominal Return Broad Investment-Grade (BIG) Bond Index Mortgage Index Asset Backed Treasury Government Sponsored BIG Credit Treasury 1-3 yr Treasury 3-7 yr Treasury 7-10 yr Treasury 10+ yr Government Sponsored 1-3 yr Government Sponsored 3-7 yr Government Sponsored 7-10 yr Government Sponsored 10+ yr BIG Credit 1-3 BIG Credit 3-7 BIG Credit 7-10 BIG Credit 10+ Average Return 0.636 0.629 0.618 0.630 0.682 0.491 0.601 0.672 0.787 0.509 0.617 0.690 0.843 0.557 0.645 0.711 0.778 01/89-12/05 Average Excess Standard Return Deviation 0.240 1.140 0.234 0.922 0.223 1.329 0.234 1.210 0.286 1.356 0.095 0.517 0.206 1.177 0.276 1.760 0.392 2.439 0.114 0.517 0.222 1.066 0.295 1.580 0.448 2.625 0.162 0.524 0.250 1.083 0.315 1.589 0.382 2.041 Curve = Flat to Flat Sharpe Ratio 0.211 0.254 0.168 0.194 0.211 0.184 0.175 0.157 0.161 0.221 0.208 0.187 0.170 0.308 0.231 0.198 0.187 07/92-12/05 Average Average Excess Standard Sharpe Return Return Deviation Ratio 0.552 0.208 1.110 0.188 0.528 0.184 0.833 0.221 0.519 0.176 0.868 0.203 0.541 0.198 1.328 0.149 0.550 0.207 1.215 0.170 0.603 0.260 1.384 0.188 0.409 0.066 0.482 0.137 0.512 0.168 1.162 0.145 0.590 0.246 1.773 0.139 0.731 0.388 2.468 0.157 0.429 0.086 0.490 0.176 0.527 0.184 1.044 0.176 0.606 0.262 1.601 0.164 0.778 0.434 2.633 0.165 0.482 0.139 0.507 0.274 0.568 0.225 1.105 0.203 0.631 0.288 1.632 0.176 0.707 0.364 2.146 0.170 Curve = Steep to Flat Citigroup Yield Book Indices 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 4 History of U.S. Mortgage Market 1930s—Great Depression led to 30-year fixed rate mortgage 1932—Federal Home Loan Bank system for thrift and FSLIC to insure depositors. Major source of residential mortgages until 1970s. Role greatly reduced with thrift crisis of 1980s. 1934—FHA—established to insure high LTV loans 1938—FNMA—established to purchase & hold FHA loans 1968—FNMA became private corporation—split into FNMA & GNMA 1970—First GNMA pass-through security 1970—FHLMC chartered as second GSE 1971—FHLMC issued first pass-through 1983—FHLMC issued first sequential pay CMO 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 5 Mortgage Types Fixed-rate — — 15-year 30-year Adjustable-rate — — Treasury LIBOR Hybrid (fixed period, then adjustable period) — — 3/1s 5/1s Balloon (30-year amortization, then balloon payment) — — 5-year 7-year 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 6 Securitization Process or (Conversion of Mortgage Collateral into Mortgage-Backed Securities) Securities issued by a bankruptcy remote trust not an originator Securities payment comes from cash-flow of underlying collateral, not payment from originator of loans. If originator of loans goes into bankruptcy, does not impact cash-flow to security holders Credit enhancement: — — 3rd party guarantee— – GNMA, FHLMC, FNMA for agencies – AAA monoline for non-agency Internal to deal— – Excess spread – Overcollateralization (OC) – Subordinated classes 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 7 Prepayments—The Key to Agency MBS Valuation Homeowner has right to call his loan at any time. MBS = Treasury + Short a “Call” Very few prepayment penalties in Agency MBS When rates decline, homeowners prepay faster 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 8 Prepayment Terminology SMM = Single Monthly Mortality Rate = Actual Principal Payment – Scheduled Principal Payment Beginning Principal CPR = SMM Annualized PSA = Public Securities Association Standard Prepayment Ramp 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 9 Components of Prepayment Speeds (Agencies) Housing Turnover (moving) Cash-out Refinancing Rate Refinancing CPR 6-10% 2-8% 0-80% 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 10 Refi Curve 70 60 CPR 50 40 30 20 10 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Refi Incentive 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 11 Technology Has Moved Refi Curve 260 Refi Threshold (2001-03 Wave) 240 Incentive Threshold (bps) 220 Refi Threshold 200 Linear (Refi Threshold) 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 Report Date 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 12 PSA Curves 10 9 8 7 CPR 6 5 4 100% PSA 150% PSA 3 2 1 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Age (in Months) 35 40 45 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 50 13 Mortgage Cashflows for a $100,000 30-yr 5.5% Loan 600 500 $ Amount 400 300 200 Interest Payment Principal Payment 100 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 Age in Months 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 14 Mortgage Cashflows for a $100MM GNMA Pool With 0% Prepayments 60,000 50,000 $ Amount 40,000 30,000 20,000 Interest Payment 10,000 Principal Payment 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 Age in Months 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 15 Pass-Thru Cashflows ($100MM 30-yr GNMA 5.5% @ 6% CPR) 120,000 Servicing Interest Payment Principal Payment 100,000 Cash Flow ($) 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 Age (in Months) 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 16 Pass-Thru Cashflows ($100MM 30yr GNMA 5.5% @ 100 PSA) 120,000 Servicing Interest Payment Principal Payment 100,000 Cash Flow ($) 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 Age (in Months) 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 17 WAL Profile WAL 12 10 8 6 4 2 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 Mortgage Yields 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 18 Negative Convexity Price 140 7.5% Mtg 130 7.5% 10yr Tsy 7.5% 5yr Tsy 120 7.5% 2yr Tsy 110 100 90 80 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 Mortgage Yields 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 19 Calculation of Prepayment Option Cost OAS approach 1. Simulate 500 interest rate paths. 2. Calculate prepayments on each path. 3. Calculate yield spread of MBS to LIBOR (Treasury) curve so average price across all paths just equals price of MBS. 4. This is the expected yield pick-up to LIBOR (Treasury) curve, after adjusting for prepayment risk. 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 20 Making Sequential CMOs Principal payments from $100mm 7.5% Deal Principal 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 A 300,000 B 200,000 C D 100,000 0 0 60 120 180 Months 240 300 360 21 Making PAC CMOs Principal payments from $70 million 7.5% Deal Principal 1,200,000 1,000,000 250 PSA 800,000 600,000 400,000 A 200,000 B C 100 PSA D 0 0 60 120 180 Month 240 300 360 22 Range of CMO WAL Profiles 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Bond Short VADM Intermediate VADM Longer VADM 3yr PAC 5yr PAC 10yr PAC Last Cashflow PAC 2yr Payer/TAC/Type 2 5yr Payer/TAC/Type 2 10yr Payer/TAC/Type 2 Last Cashflow Payer Seasoned Collateral New Collateral Less Callable Support/Super PO More Callable Support/Rocket Z 5 3.4 6.3 11.5 3.6 6.7 12.1 18.5 2.5 6.0 13.1 24.2 9.9 11.7 15.7 25.0 10 3.4 6.3 11.5 3.1 5.9 10.9 18.4 1.6 3.9 8.1 18.9 7.0 7.8 5.7 0.5 15 3.4 6.3 8.7 3.1 5.5 10.0 17.9 1.2 2.8 5.5 15.1 5.3 5.6 1.2 0.2 CPR 20 3.4 6.0 7.1 2.6 4.1 7.6 14.1 0.9 2.2 4.1 12.3 4.1 4.2 0.8 0.1 6.5x6.5 Examples 25 3.3 5.6 5.8 2.1 3.2 6.0 11.3 0.7 1.8 3.3 10.1 3.3 3.4 0.6 0.1 30 3.0 4.8 4.9 1.7 2.6 4.9 9.3 0.6 1.5 2.6 8.5 2.7 2.8 0.5 0.1 35 2.7 4.0 4.1 1.4 2.2 4.1 7.8 0.6 1.3 2.2 7.2 2.3 2.3 0.4 0.1 Bond WAL Spread FHR 2289 VA 3.0 115/C FHR 2288 VC 4.0 133/C FHR 2288 VB 11.9 150/C FHR 2219 PG 3.0 120/C FHR 2219 PH 5.1 138/C FHR 2219 PL 10.1 154/C FHR 2219 PM 19.1 158/C FNR 00-5 A 3.0 159/C FHR 2292 AB 4.8 166/C FNR 00-5 B 8.3 172/C FNR 00-5 C 15.3 186/C 266 WAM 6.5 6.1 174/C FN 6.5% TBA 7.1 181/C FHR 2102 KJ 4.6 226/C FHR 2292 ZK 0.8 305/C 23 U.S. Mortgage Market (Dollars in Millions) Year 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005-Q3 GNMA 93,874 105,790 118,940 159,981 179,981 212,145 262,698 315,832 340,527 369,687 401,278 425,241 419,516 414,066 450,934 472,283 506,340 536,810 537,431 582,263 611,553 591,368 537,888 473,738 441,345 411,870 FHLMC 16,962 19,897 42,952 57,720 70,025 99,908 169,186 205,992 219,701 266,060 308,369 351,906 401,525 434,499 460,656 512,238 551,513 576,846 640,471 740,157 810,894 940,933 1,072,990 1,156,188 1,199,290 1,284,393 FNMA 717 14,450 25,121 36,215 54,987 95,778 137,330 172,259 219,577 291,194 362,667 435,979 486,804 530,343 569,724 633,210 687,981 804,205 924,941 1,016,398 1,238,125 1,478,610 1,851,728 1,984,217 2,226,000 Total NonAgency Agency 110,836 126,404 176,342 242,822 286,221 11,000 367,040 24,016 527,662 16,617 659,154 27,800 732,487 34,865 855,324 43,325 1,000,841 55,193 1,139,814 98,183 1,257,020 146,146 1,335,369 174,571 1,441,933 192,637 1,554,245 206,487 1,691,063 232,206 1,801,637 276,930 1,982,107 355,470 2,247,361 394,559 2,438,845 426,265 2,770,426 496,101 3,089,488 551,806 3,481,654 683,231 3,624,852 1,071,894 3,922,263 1,410,000 Total MBS 110,836 126,404 176,342 242,822 286,221 367,040 527,662 686,954 767,352 898,649 1,054,176 1,223,814 1,389,020 1,519,069 1,647,933 1,778,545 1,947,263 2,112,337 2,390,251 2,706,828 2,865,110 3,266,527 3,641,294 4,164,885 4,696,746 5,332,263 Residential Total MBS as % of Resi Mtg Mortgages 962,259 11.5 1,034,857 12.2 1,074,995 16.4 1,191,648 20.4 1,326,092 21.6 1,523,590 24.1 1,726,460 30.6 1,924,218 35.7 2,157,749 35.6 2,382,954 37.7 2,619,009 40.3 2,787,186 43.9 2,955,012 47.0 3,116,500 48.7 3,296,249 50.0 3,467,257 51.3 3,695,159 52.7 3,935,995 53.7 4,294,768 55.7 4,716,558 57.4 5,126,312 55.9 5,635,791 58.0 6,309,623 57.7 7,105,053 58.6 8,071,089 58.2 8,784,300 60.7 Source: Inside MBS & ABS Estimates in italics 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 24 U.S. Mortgage Market—Agency vs. Non-Agency ($ billion) Agency Pass Throughs (not in CMOs) Agency CMOs Total Agency 1999 523 161 684 2000 402 79 481 2001 710 354 1,064 2002 907 536 1,443 2003 1,620 516 2,136 2004 701 318 1,019 2005 665 295 960 Resi A—Prime-Jumbo Resi A—Alt–A Resi B&C—Subprime Home Equity Other * Total Non–Agency 75 12 56 5 148 54 16 52 13 136 142 11 87 27 267 172 53 123 66 414 237 74 195 80 586 233 159 362 110 864 280 332 465 114 1,191 Source: Inside MBS & ABS * Scatch & Dent, Seconds, Resecuritizations. 2005p = Based on first three quarters of 2005. 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 25 Loan and Borrower Characteristics Residential A Lien Loan Limit Credit FICO: Min Avg Avg CLTV Occupancy Documentation (Low/No Doc) Avg Loan Size Loan Purpose: Purchase Cash Out Rate Refi AAA Credit Support Agency* 1st <=Agency Agency 660 715 70% Owner 0% 180,000 Jumbo A 1st >= Agency A 600 735 70% Owner 35% 430,000 Alt-A 1st none A/A600 710 80% 20% Investor 60% 235,000 Residential B/C Subprime Home Equity 1st or 2nd none A-/C 500 620 83% 5% Investor 35% 165,000 Agency 45 15 40 2.50-3.00% 45 35 20 6.00-7.50% 27 66 7 18-22% HEL HELOC 2nd none A 680 720 85% Owner 0% 40,000 HEL Closed 2nd none A/A680 720 75% Owner 0% 30,000 0 85 15 Monoline 0 85 15 *FNMA & FHLMC Agency Limit = $359,650 as of January 1, 2005. $417,000 as of January 1, 2006. 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 26 Distribution of Credit Scores & LTV Across Products 2005 Vintage Loans 30 SubPrime % FICO 25 ALT-A 20 Prime 15 10 5 840-869 810-839 780-809 750-779 720-749 690-719 660-689 630-659 600-629 570-599 540-569 510-539 480-509 450-479 420-449 0 FICO 35 SubPrime 30 ALT-A 25 LTV Prime % 20 15 10 5 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 LTV 70 80 90 100 110 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 27 10 0K -2 00 K 20 0K -3 00 K 30 0K -4 00 K 40 0K -5 00 K 50 0K -6 00 K 60 0K -7 00 K 70 0K -8 00 K 80 0K -9 00 90 K 0K -1 00 10 0K 00 K11 00 11 K 00 K12 00 K 12 00 K- ARMs Fixed 10 0K -2 00 K 20 0K -3 00 K 30 0K -4 00 K 40 0K -5 00 K 50 0K -6 00 K 60 0K -7 00 K 70 0K -8 00 K 80 0K -9 00 90 K 0K -1 00 10 0K 00 K11 00 11 K 00 K12 00 K 12 00 K- <1 00 K % Loan Size— <1 00 K Loan Size— % Loan Size Distribution Across Products 2005 Vintage Loans 35 30 SubPrime 25 ALT-A 20 Prime 15 10 5 0 Loan Size 40 35 SubPrime 30 ALT-A 25 Prime 20 15 10 5 0 Loan Size 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 28 Enhancement Reflects Collateral Differences “Six-Pack” Deal Collateral Deal with XS / OC AAAs AAAs AA “M1” A “M2” BBB “M3” BB “B1” B “B2” N.R. “B3” IO Excess-Spread O/C-based Credit Enhancement — “Six-pack” structures where several locked-out subs provide credit enhancement. Mainly used on Jumbos and Alt-As Excess-spread / Overcollateralization structures, where locked-out subs are complemented by excess interest from the collateral to cover losses. Mainly used in Subprime, High-LTV, Scratch & Dent, sometimes Alt-A Classic “Six Pack” Credit Enhancement — Interest Payments enhancement structures come mainly in two flavors Deal Collateral Face Value Total Principal Payments In Non-Agency MBS, credit AA “M1” A “M2” BBB “M3” XS – OC Residual Interest on the bonds Interest on the bonds 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 29 Typical Evolution—OC Target & Actual OC Actual OC Triggers playing a role After step-down OC at Target uil d -Up OC OC B OC Relative to Orig. Balance Target OC Re lea se OC allowed to decrease Along with collateral balance 1 yr 2 yrs 3 yrs 4 yrs Deal seasoning Step-Down Date 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 30 Credit vs. Prepayment Stability (More) Prepayment Stability Prepayment stability a key attribute of Subprime Subprime Agency Alt-A Jumbo (Less) (Lower) Credit (Higher) 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 31 0 Sep-04 May-04 Jan-04 Sep-03 May-03 Jan-03 Sep-02 May-02 Jan-02 Sep-01 May-01 Jan-01 Sep-00 80 May-00 90 Jan-00 Sep-99 May-99 Jan-99 1-month CPR Prepayment Sensitivity of Non-Agency Sectors 100 Jumbo Alt A Subprime FN 99 7% 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 32 Historical Cumulative Loss Comparison* Resi A—Prime-Jumbo 10 - 20 bps Resi A— Alt-A 50 – 80 bps Resi B&C— Subprime 400 – 500 bps *Cum losses for 2003-2005 vintages will be much less because of strong housing price appreciation. 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 33 Loss Coverage by Rating Level Jumbo Rating Enhancement AAA 2.60-3.00 AA 1.20-1.50 A .65-.90 BBB .45-.55 BB .30-.35 B .15-.20 Current loss = 10 bps Alt-A Loss Coverage 28.0 13.5 7.8 4.8 3.3 1.8 Rating Enhancement AAA 6.00-7.50 AA 3.00-3.75 A 2.00-2.50 BBB 1.50-2.00 BB .75-.90 B .35-.50 Current loss = 60 bps Loss Coverage 11.3 5.6 3.8 2.9 1.4 0.7 Subprime Rating Enhancement AAA 18.00-22.00 AA 14.00-16.00 A 11.00-13.00 BBB 8.00-10.00 Current loss = 400-450 bps Loss Coverage 5.0 3.8 3.0 2.3 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 34 MBS Issuance By Sector—Agency vs. NonAgency 700,000 Agency 600,000 Non-Agency Non-Agency ($mm) 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 2005-Q4 2005-Q3 2005-Q2 2005-Q1 2004-Q4 2004-Q3 2004-Q2 2004-Q1 2003-Q4 2003-Q3 2003-Q2 2003-Q1 2002-Q4 2002-Q3 2002-Q2 2002-Q1 0 Source: Inside MBS & ABS 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 35 Non-Agency MBS Issuance By Sector 140,000 Prime Jumbo Subprime Home Equity Alt-A All Other 120,000 Non-Agency ($mm) 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 2005-Q4 2005-Q3 2005-Q2 2005-Q1 2004-Q4 2004-Q3 2004-Q2 2004-Q1 2003-Q4 2003-Q3 2003-Q2 2003-Q1 2002-Q4 2002-Q3 2002-Q2 0 2002-Q1 20,000 Source: Inside MBS & ABS 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 36 RMBS Issuance—By Type ($million) % of Total Date 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2005-Q1 2005-Q2 2005-Q3 2005-Q4 Agency 269,132 370,648 367,884 725,952 685,078 479,011 1,087,499 1,444,426 2,131,953 1,018,871 960,372 198,851 229,104 287,455 244,962 Alt-A 498 1,803 6,518 21,236 12,023 14,696 11,374 53,463 74,151 158,586 332,323 59,563 82,050 103,755 86,955 Jumbo Subprime Seconds 25,838 17,772 2,012 31,419 30,769 5,141 49,975 56,921 4,570 97,365 75,830 7,375 74,631 55,852 3,266 56,052 48,145 3,825 142,203 87,053 15,512 171,534 122,681 24,803 237,455 194,959 20,351 233,378 362,549 49,133 280,704 464,990 60,736 64,118 98,220 10,356 66,522 119,213 12,366 70,775 118,974 21,414 79,289 128,583 16,600 S&D 2,068 0 924 790 1,374 2,374 5,522 25,172 47,033 34,701 29,004 6,674 8,147 7,081 7,102 Re-MBS 739 762 224 616 754 1,062 4,736 14,357 7,748 21,383 16,786 2,631 10,371 2,820 965 Other Total MBS 318,058 440,541 487,016 929,163 832,977 605,165 921 1,354,819 1,945 1,858,381 4,520 2,718,170 4,432 1,883,033 6,721 2,151,635 791 441,202 774 528,547 2,706 614,980 2,450 566,907 Agency 84.6 84.1 75.5 78.1 82.2 79.2 80.3 77.7 78.4 54.1 44.6 45.1 43.3 46.7 43.2 Alt-A 0.2 0.4 1.3 2.3 1.4 2.4 0.8 2.9 2.7 8.4 15.4 13.5 15.5 16.9 15.3 Jumbo Subprime 8.1 5.6 7.1 7.0 10.3 11.7 10.5 8.2 9.0 6.7 9.3 8.0 10.5 6.4 9.2 6.6 8.7 7.2 12.4 19.3 13.0 21.6 14.5 22.3 12.6 22.6 11.5 19.3 14.0 22.7 Source: Inside MBS & ABS, based on SEC filingss and industry surveys. MBS are backed by 1-4 family mortgage loans. Agency CMO/REMICs are backed by FNMA, FHLMC or GNMA collateral. Starting January 2001, Non-Agency MBS include private-label Note: jumbo and Alt-A transactions, plus mortgage-related ABS, including subprime HEL, second liens, HELOCs, high LTV loans and manufactured housing loans. ABS data prior to 2001 include some mortgage-related collateral. 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 37 Factors Behind Growth in Subprime HEQ Issuance More subprime borrowers — Increase in consumer debt burden Greater % of subprime borrowers taking out mortgages — Aggressive marketing programs — Internet access Expanded definition of subprime — Includes more Alt-A Securitizers accounting for greater share of subprime lending — More aggressive lending — Rapid expansion into new geographic areas Consumers shifting installment debt to mortgage debt Lower rates = Increased rate refis Greater housing inflation = Increased cash-out refis Competitive pricing 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 38 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt Jan-06 Jan-05 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-02 Jan-01 Jan-00 Jan-99 Jan-98 Jan-97 Jan-96 Jan-95 Jan-94 Jan-93 Jan-92 Jan-91 Jan-90 GNMA 1s and 2s 30-Yr / All Pass-Thru Production 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 39 Sep-05 May-05 Jan-05 Sep-04 10 May-04 Jan-04 Sep-03 May-03 Jan-03 Sep-02 May-02 Jan-02 Sep-01 May-01 Jan-01 Sep-00 May-00 Jan-00 Subprime Profitability 12 2/28 HEL WACs LIBOR+90 Profitability 8 6 4 2 - 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 40 Evolution of Non-Agency Loan Characteristics Orig Class Type Year # Loans Prime 1998 299,312 1999 200,871 2000 124,263 2001 274,548 2002 357,834 2003 462,067 2004 440,404 2005 153,368 ALT-A 1998 153,616 1999 91,918 2000 65,887 2001 106,964 2002 182,154 2003 377,563 2004 742,341 2005 461,508 Subprime 1998 313,046 1999 455,706 2000 410,275 2001 489,668 2002 681,806 2003 1,070,217 2004 1,645,204 2005 722,406 Source: Loan Performance Orig Orig Loan Inves Amount ARM % WAC FICO CLTV Size % 98,691 9.0 7.23 725 72.3 330 0.6 70,479 19.4 7.19 721 72.4 351 0.9 45,722 33.1 7.92 725 74.5 368 1.1 119,939 27.3 6.99 729 69.2 437 0.5 167,779 43.1 6.08 734 65.9 469 0.5 215,880 50.3 5.14 736 66.0 467 1.0 189,105 76.5 4.46 733 71.7 429 2.5 72,043 63.4 4.97 737 73.2 470 2.6 23,761 0.4 7.89 711 74.4 155 18.5 13,811 3.7 8.25 698 76.9 150 20.2 12,590 8.0 9.20 695 78.6 191 15.3 29,220 20.8 7.83 703 75.9 273 8.8 46,934 30.1 7.00 709 74.7 258 13.0 88,173 35.0 5.94 711 73.8 234 19.2 182,698 68.2 5.33 710 79.3 246 17.3 121,895 62.5 4.51 714 77.9 264 14.9 28,975 52.5 9.77 602 77.7 93 6.2 43,496 54.4 9.88 602 78.2 95 5.0 42,145 68.6 10.52 595 79.0 103 5.0 60,551 70.1 9.54 603 79.9 124 4.9 97,524 74.4 8.47 612 80.3 143 5.2 174,756 68.6 7.45 621 81.7 163 5.4 293,860 78.1 7.05 622 83.5 179 5.4 136,169 84.2 7.18 622 84.6 189 5.3 Full Doc % 72.2 65.2 64.0 72.5 66.8 53.4 49.3 46.4 39.5 37.6 33.6 31.6 31.7 30.5 31.8 31.5 72.2 68.9 74.9 72.9 67.4 65.1 62.0 59.6 DTI 25.2 23.4 29.9 31.0 30.9 31.2 33.7 34.5 30.4 27.0 34.0 34.9 35.0 34.1 35.3 36.0 35.9 37.8 38.9 39.1 39.3 39.7 40.2 40.4 CA 46.1 48.8 38.0 46.0 47.9 47.4 49.3 47.6 41.3 32.5 35.1 43.1 43.7 44.4 43.1 43.0 18.5 18.8 19.7 25.1 29.9 32.9 33.6 30.0 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 41 Source: Loan Performance Oct-04 Oct-04 Jul-05 Jul-04 Jul-04 Jul-05 Apr-04 Apr-04 Apr-05 Jan-04 Jan-04 Apr-05 Oct-03 Oct-03 Jan-05 Jul-03 Jul-03 Jan-05 Apr-03 Jan-02 Oct-01 Apr-03 0 Jan-03 5 Jan-03 10 Oct-02 15 Oct-02 20 Jul-02 25 Jul-02 Alt-A & Prime Apr-02 35 Apr-02 Jan-02 Oct-01 30 Jul-01 Apr-01 Jan-01 50 Jul-01 Apr-01 Jan-01 Option ARMs %—1st Lien Fixed and ARMs % IO%—1st Lien Fixed and ARMs % IO% Peaked When Option ARMs Took Off 60 Subprime Alt-A & Prime 40 30 20 10 0 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 42 Dominance of “Affordability” Mortgages 80 Alt-A & Prime 70 Subprime 60 Affordability = IO + Option ARMs 40 30 20 Jul-05 Apr-05 Jan-05 Oct-04 Jul-04 Apr-04 Jan-04 Oct-03 Jul-03 Apr-03 Jan-03 Oct-02 Jul-02 Apr-02 Jan-02 Oct-01 Jul-01 0 Apr-01 10 Jan-01 % 50 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 43 Mar-05 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-02 Mar-01 Mar-00 Mar-99 Mar-98 Mar-97 Mar-96 Mar-95 Mar-94 Mar-93 Mar-92 Mar-91 Mar-90 % U.S. Annual Home Price Appreciation 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Source: Freddie Mac 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 44 Subprime Cumulative Loss by Vintage & Foreclosure by States 450 400 Vintage Year Bps 350 300 1998-2003 250 200 150 100 c 50 0 3 7 11 15 19 23 27 31 35 39 43 47 51 55 59 63 67 71 Seasoning 1998 2001 1999 2002 2000 2003 30 25 CA MS NE TN UT 2001 FC Freq % 20 15 MA NC OK TX 10 5 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 Loan Age 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 45 2001 Subprime Mortgages— Loss Severity & Cumulative Loss Rates, by States 50 Loss Severity (%) 40 Loss Severity 30 20 10 0 CA MA UT NE TX NC TN OK 23 26 29 MS 3.5 CA MS NE TN UT Cumulative Loss Rates Cumulative Loss Rate (%) 3 2.5 MA NC OK TX 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 5 8 11 14 17 20 32 Loan Age 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 46 Subprime 2/28 ARM with 2-year Penalties 100 80 CPR (%) 2000 2001 60 2002 40 2003 2004 20 0 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 Loan Age 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 47 Impact of Prepayments & HPA on Subprime Losses HPA/CPR/LS Combination A Housing Appreciation 7 - 12% CPR ARM* 70 CPR Fixed* 30 CDR** Base Loss Severity 20 Cum Defaults 6.67 Cum Loss 1.50 B 5 - 7% 50 25 Base 35 11.58 4.09 C 2 - 3% 45 20 Base 45 13.35 6.07 D 0% 40 18 Base 55 14.99 8.33 E -2 - 3% 35 15 Base x 1.20 60 20.04 12.15 * ARM CPR Vectors identified by peak speed at 24 months. Fixed CPR Vectors identified by speed at end of 12 month seasoning ramp. **Base CDR curve based on historical current losses. For combination E, base CDR multiplied by 1.20 to account for recession. 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 48 Loss Coverage Ratios If Housing Inflation Slows Subprime Rating AAA AA A BBB Enhancement 18.00 - 22.00 14.00 - 16.00 11.00 - 13.00 8.00 - 10.00 7 - 12% HPI 70/30 CPR Cum Loss = 1.50% 5 - 7% HPI 50/25 CPR Cum Loss = 4.00% 13.3 10.0 8.0 6.0 5.0 3.8 3.0 2.3 Loss Coverage 2 - 3% HPI 0% HPI 45/20 CPR 40/18 CPR Cum Loss = Cum Loss = 6.00% 8.33% 3.3 2.5 2.0 1.5 2.4 1.8 1.4 1.1 -2-3% HPI 35/15 CPR Cum Loss = 12.00% 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.8 Source: UBS Source: UBS 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 49 Impact of Lower Housing Inflation on Losses Cumulative Losses = Cumulative Defaults x Loss Severity Jumbo 5 - 7% Housing Inflation 2 - 3% Housing Inflation 0% Housing Inflation 10.0 bp 24.0 bp 42.0 bp = = = 1.00% 1.20% 1.40% x x x 10% 20% 30% Alt-A 5 - 7% Housing Inflation 2 - 3% Housing Inflation 0% Housing Inflation 60.0 bp 105.0 bp 160.0 bp = = = 3.00% 3.50% 4.00% x x x 20% 30% 40% Subprime 5 - 7% Housing Inflation 2 - 3% Housing Inflation 0% Housing Inflation 4.00% 6.00% 8.33% = = = 11.50% 13.35% 15.15% x x x 35% 45% 55% Source: UBS 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 50 Loss Coverage Ratios If Housing Inflation Slows Jumbo Rating Enhancement 2.60 - 3.00 AAA 1.20 - 1.50 AA .65 - .90 A .45 - .55 BBB .30 - .35 BB .15 - .20 B 5 - 7% HPI Cum Loss = 10.0 bps 28 13.5 7.8 4.8 3.3 1.8 Loss Coverage 2 - 3% HPI Cum Loss = 24.0 bps 11.7 5.6 3.3 2.0 1.4 0.8 0% HPI Cum Loss = 42.0 bps 6.7 3.2 1.9 1.1 0.8 0.4 Alt-A Rating Enhancement 6.00 - 7.50 AAA 3.00 - 3.75 AA 2.00 - 2.50 A 1.50 - 2.00 BBB .75 - .90 BB .35 - .50 B 5 - 7% HPI Cum Loss = 60.0 bps 11.3 5.6 3.8 2.9 1.4 1.8 Loss Coverage 2 - 3% HPI Cum Loss = 105.0 bps 6.4 3.2 2.1 1.7 0.8 0.4 0% HPI Cum Loss = 160.0 bps 4.2 2.1 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.3 5 - 7% HPI Cum Loss = 4.00% 5.0 3.8 3.0 2.3 Loss Coverage 2 - 3% HPI Cum Loss = 6.00% 3.3 2.5 2.0 1.5 0% HPI Cum Loss = 8.33% 2.3 1.8 1.4 1.1 Subprime Rating Enhancement 18.00 - 22.00 AAA 14.00 - 16.00 AA 11.00 - 13.00 A 8.00 - 10.00 BBB Source: UBS 1-29-06 NY (tom).ppt 51 Analyst Certification Each research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to each security or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about those securities or issuers; and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by that research analyst in the research report. 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