DFID NEPAL RURAL WATER AND SANITATION BUSINESS CASE Intervention Summary Title: DFID Nepal support to Rural Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene What support will the UK provide? DFID’s contribution to this intervention is £3.75m over a period of 3 years. Why is Support required? Nepal is unlikely to meet both its water, and sanitation and hygiene, (WASH) MDGs. Whilst Nepal’s 2010 Millennium Development Goal self-assessment judged progress against MDG target 7C1 (sustainable access to an improved water source) to be on-track, 7C2 (sustainable access to an improved water source) was judged unlikely to be met. Although 80% of the population has access to improved water infrastructure, it is estimated that 45% of existing systems need major repair, rehabilitation or complete reconstruction. Rural populations have very limited access to even basic sanitation, so 14.2m people defecate in the open – almost half of the population of Nepal, mostly in rural areas. There is wide disparity in access to toilet facilities between rural and urban areas with only 40% of rural households benefiting from improved sanitation. The human impact of this situation is high. Between 10,000 and 13,000 children under 5 die each year from preventable waterborne diseases. Cholera and typhoid outbreaks, the alarm bell of system failure, are annual occurrences and with climate change impacting on water sources and rainfall patterns, outbreaks are increasing. Impacts fall disproportionately on women and girls as primary water fetchers and carers for sick children and family members; they are also most at risk from disease and violence associated from lack of sanitation facilities and having to walk to remote water points. What are the expected results? The project will implement a total of 192 schemes which will benefit 5,200 households with 33,000 people and work with communities to build 4,160 household latrines and 20latrines in schools. The proposed intervention would support DFID Nepal’s water and Sanitation (WASH) results framework which seeks to deliver, by 2015: sustainable access to clean water for 240,000 people, of which 130,000 would be women, with over 80% of infrastructure still operational after 4 years, compared to the 55% estimated for Nepal on average; sustainable access to sanitation for 110,000 people, of which 60,000 would be women; 200 water schemes adopting disaster and climate resilient designs; And 195,000 people adopting and practising good hygiene behaviours. Strategic Case A. Context and need for a DFID intervention A review of global evidence by DFID states “strong evidence” that effective WASH interventions have a demonstrable impact on health outcomes, particularly reducing “morbidity and mortality associated with diarrhoeal diseases”.i There is also good evidence that WASH improves health more broadly, including reducing the incidence of worms and respiratory infections and reducing under-nutrition.ii Several studies by International Non-Governmental Organisations (INGOs) suggest that effective WASH may also increase school attendance and empower women.iii Improvements in sanitation and water supply in Nepal since 1990 have been appreciable. For sanitation, the results vary according to source but show firstly that progress has been good and that Nepal is on track to meet the sanitation target (7C2) under the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and secondly that there is still a long way to go to achieve universal access by 2017. The Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP) data shows that access to improved sanitation has increased from 10% in 1990 to 31% in 2010iv. The Demographic / Health Survey (DHS) for 2011, published in 2012v, suggests that the access figure in 2011 was 39.5% for improved not shared facilities, with a further 14.9% with access to improved shared facilities. The National Management Information Project (NMIP) survey of 2011vi suggests that the 2011 figure is about 43%. The Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP) results also show a significant drop in open defecation from 80% in 1990 to 49% in 2010, with the NMIP survey suggesting that the figure in 2011 is even lower at 38.4%. Population served (%) Source: JMP, 2012 SANITATION Improved, not shared facility Flush/pour flush to piped sewer system Flush/pour flush to septic tank Flush/pour flush to pit latrine Ventilated Improved Pit (VIP) latrine Pit latrine with slab Composting toilet Shared facility Flush/pour flush to piped sewer system Flush/pour flush to septic tank Flush/pour flush to pit latrine Ventilated Improved Pit (VIP) latrine Pit latrine with slab 1990 2000 2010 Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total Urban 37 7 10 42 17 20 48 27 31 58.1 18.0 35.0 2.3 0.4 2.4 0.0 28 Non-improved facility 5 Flush/pour flush notto sewer/septic tank/pit latrine Pit latrine without slab/open pit No facility/bush/field (open defecation) Source: DHS, 2012 30 2 4 32 17 20 36 27 6 6 4 6 7 3 7 85 80 22 71 64 13 57 2011 Rural Total 36.7 39.5 1.3 3.5 23.9 25.4 3.4 3.3 0.6 0.6 7.3 6.7 0.2 0.2 31 29.5 12.6 14.9 8.4 1.2 2.2 18.7 7.7 9.2 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.1 2.3 2.1 6 2.1 0.4 1.7 7.9 0.2 7.7 7.2 0.3 6.9 49 10.3 42.7 38.4 Table 1 - Sanitation Coverage Data from the NMIP survey also shows that there is considerable regional disparity in figures for improved sanitation, ranging from 53.5% in the Western Region to 29.1% in the Far Western Region. The data for water supply is more fragmented and less easy to interpret than that for sanitation. It is far from clear as to whether or not Nepal is on target to achieve the MDG target for access to water from an improved source (7C1). The JMP data shows an increase from 76% of the population with access to an improved water source in 1990 to 89% in 2010. The DHS survey suggests that in 2011 the level of access is maintained at 89% but the NMIP survey by DWSS suggest that access in 2011 is only 80.4% in 2011. This discrepancy is not explained. The regional disparity is not as significant as for sanitation with a range from 84.6% Population served (%) Source: JMP, 2012 WATER Improved Source Piped into dwelling/yard/plot Public tap/standpipe Tube well or borehole Protected well Protected spring Rain water Bottled water Source: DHS, 2012 1990 2000 2010 Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total Urban 96 74 76 94 81 83 93 88 89 93.4 43 5 8 48 8 13 53 10 18 41.0 53 69 68 46 73 70 40 78 71 12.1 33.6 3.7 0.1 0.0 2.9 2011 Rural 88.0 17.5 25.4 43.0 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.3 Total 88.5 20.6 23.6 41.7 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.6 Non-improved Source Unprotected well Unprotected spring Tanker/truck/cart with drum 2 13 12 3 10 9 4 6 6 4.2 2.5 0.2 1.5 3.6 2.1 1.1 0.4 3.8 2.2 1.0 0.6 Surface water 2 13 12 3 9 8 3 6 5 2.1 8.5 7.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 Other source Table 2 - Improved Water Supply Coverage in the Western Region to 76.3% in the Mid-Western Region. However, these figures are inconsistent with the functionality survey carried out by NMIP which suggest that only about 55% of water supply schemes are in reasonable working order (needing no more that minor repair which the community can do themselves).About 45% of schemes are either not functioning at or need major repair which is beyond the scope of the communities themselves. This is something that the JMP will have to address in the 2013 Progress Report but it most likely means that Nepal will be considered to be unlikely achieve MDG Target 7C1. No aid agencies prioritise repair or rehabilitation, preferring to see their money go to currently un-served communities for new water supplies to aid the attainment of the MDG targets for water. Therefore, rehabilitation is paid for by the government of Nepal itself and is inadequately funded, as are measures to increase the level of operation and maintenance budgets managed by communities through Water and Sanitation User Committees (WSUCs). The lack of sustainability of water supply systems is therefore a major problem facing Nepal. This lack of a ‘complete lifecycle cost’ approach also means that new infrastructure is not necessarily designed to be easy to maintain or require low maintenance. Higher reinvestment is therefore required and health benefits are not sustained so there are significant financial and economic penalties associated with this lack of sustainability. The 2011 Nepal Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH)joint sector assessmentvii recommends that Nepal should concentrate on three major objectives: make Nepal an open defecation-free zone; restore continuous water in all urban and rural areas with a particular emphasis on maintenance and rehabilitation; and monitor water quality and disinfect supplies where natural sources cannot be adequately isolated from possible contamination. To achieve this, the assessment team recommended action in the following four pillars, underpinned by attention to equity: 1: enabling environment, covering policy, strategy, advocacy, coordinated planning, dedicated finance, local ownership and political commitment. 2: systematic capacity-building of skills at district and Village Development Committee (VDC) level to facilitate total sanitation, including technology transfer and behaviour change. 3: school- and community-led total sanitation and hygiene supported by influential leaders and mass media; house-to-house negotiation of ‘doable actions’ to ensure full household compliance with hygiene behaviour change. 4: sustainable, affordable, and durable hardware (with enabling community-managed finance and private sector engagement) – all regularly supported and supervised. Within this context, and the recommendations of the Joint Sector Assessment, there are three main options which are under consideration here, each of which presents, in turn, several alternative options to DFID Nepal. The potential options being considered as part of this business case are: Option 1: Invest in sector governance. This would seek to support an improved enabling environment at central level, focusing in particular on more effective resource allocation by Government, and also systematic capacity development at local level (helping address Pillars 1 and 2 above). Option 2: Direct delivery of integrated WASH infrastructure and services through government partners. This option would seek to support delivery of improved school- and community-led total sanitation and hygiene and new clean water and sanitation infrastructure through currently available government partners and structures (helping address Pillars 3 and 4 above). Option 3: Direct delivery of integrated WASH infrastructure and services through non-government partners. This option would seek to support delivery of improved school- and community-led total sanitation and hygiene and new clean water and sanitation infrastructure through currently available non-government partners and structures (helping address Pillars 3 and 4 above). Further background information on these options is in Annex A. B. Impact and Outcome that we expect to achieve The project will implement a total of 192 schemes which will benefit 5,200 households with 33,000 people and work with communities to build 4,160 household latrines and 20latrines in schools. The proposed intervention would support DFID Nepal’s water and Sanitation (WASH) results framework which seeks to deliver, by 2015: sustainable access to clean water for 240,000 people, of which 130,000 would be women, with over 80% of infrastructure still operational after 4 years, compared to the 55% estimated for Nepal on average; sustainable access to sanitation for 110,000 people, of which 60,000 would be women; 200 water schemes adopting disaster and climate resilient designs; And 195,000 people adopting and practising good hygiene behaviours. Appraisal Case A. What are the feasible options that address the need set out in the Strategic case? The potential options being considered as part of this business case are: Option 1: Invest in sector governance. This would seek to support an improved enabling environment at central level, focusing in particular on more effective resource allocation by Government, and also systematic capacity development at local level (helping address Pillars 1 and 2 above). Option 2: Direct delivery of integrated WASH infrastructure and services through government partners. This option would seek to support delivery of improved school- and community-led total sanitation and hygiene and new clean water and sanitation infrastructure through currently available government partners and structures (helping address Pillars 3 and 4 above). Option 3: Direct delivery of integrated WASH infrastructure and services through non-government partners. This option would seek to support delivery of improved school- and community-led total sanitation and hygiene and new clean water and sanitation infrastructure through currently available non-government partners and structures (helping address Pillars 3 and 4 above). Further background information on these options is in Annex A. B. Assessing the strength of the evidence base for each feasible option This assessment is provided throughout the supporting text below, and summarised in the following table: Options Overarching evidence base Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Strength of Rationale for Assessment evidence Medium/Strong See below the discussion of the evidence base supporting WASH interventions. Although the impact on health and labour saving of WASH programmes is generally established, several exogeneous factors can impact on effectiveness. Limited We have no existing programme of support to WASH sector governance that would enable us to specify clearly what efficiency gains would accrue from a programme of support to sector governance. There are no systematic evaluations of the inefficiencies in the sector, short of a few indicators about the time taken to implement schemes. That makes our assessment about efficiency improvements in the programme that would be created by option 1 an estimate, not rooted in a strong evidence base. Medium We have some data that enables us to demonstrate efficiency and effectiveness of delivery channels involving Government partners, especially DWSS, DOLIDAR / LGCDP and the Fund Board, but lack data on overhead costs and economy. Medium/Strong We have detailed data on GWS and NEWAH Options Strength evidence of Rationale for Assessment performance during past projects that enables us to evaluate efficiency, effectiveness, and economy including overheads. Evidence from CSP is weaker. WASH interventions have proven to have a positive health impact. The first major meta-analysis on WASH interventions was carried out in 2005 and demonstrated that all WASH interventions have a significant positive impact in reducing the incidence of diarrhoea.viii However, whilst WASH interventions clearly reduce water borne diseases such as diarrhoea, studies cite different figures as to the magnitude of change, with variations by country as well as by level of infrastructure installed. A more recent meta-analysis done by the World Bank concludes that reduction in diarrhoea from improved WASH ultimately depends not only on the existing stock of water and sanitation infrastructure (the lower the quality, the larger the reduction in diarrhoea) but also on the child mortality levels in the country (higher child mortality rates correlate to larger reductions in mortality for a given improvement in infrastructure).ixGiven the relatively high levels of child mortality in Nepal, it may be at the high end of potential reductions in burden of disease. A WHO study on the economics of WASH1evaluated a range of interventions, both globally and for major regions of the world. Five different types of water supply and sanitation improvement were modelled2. Predicted reductions in the incidence of diarrhoeal disease were calculated based on the expected population receiving these interventions. The costs of the interventions included estimations of the full investment and annual running costs. The benefits of the interventions included time savings due to easier access, gain in productive time and reduced health care costs saved due to less illness, and prevented deaths. The results show that all water and sanitation improvements are cost-beneficial in all developing world sub-regions. In developing regions, the benefit-to-cost ratio was between 5 and 46, depending on the intervention. C. What are the Costs and Benefits of each feasible option? This section summarises the results of the economic appraisal carried out for each option. The full economic appraisal is in Annex C. In the economic appraisal, each option has been assessed against the counterfactual or ‘Do Nothing’ Scenario. Costs and benefits have been discounted over a period of 21 years (the design life of a WASH facility), and discounted at both 3.5% and 12%. Hutton, G, L. Haller and J. Bartram (2007). “Global Cost Benefit Analysis of Water Supply and Sanitation Interventions.” Journal of Water and Health. World Health Organization, Geneva. 2 Achieving the water millennium development goal of reducing by half in 2015 those without improved water supply in the year 1990; achieving the combined water supply and sanitation MDG; universal basic access to water supply and sanitation; universal basic access plus water purification at the point-of-use; and regulated piped water supply and sewer connection. 1 Counterfactual option: Do nothing. DFID could decide to do none of the above options. If that decision is taken then the biggest impact would be on the delivery of WASH services. Those communities currently reached by services provided by NGOs would not receive assistance in the near future due to the lack of funding. At best, the communities would get the benefits much later through government programmes (seven to 10 years for completion of schemes as opposed to two years by NGOs or private sector). However, under the ‘Do Nothing’, Government funds would be scarce, and even those communities currently reached by Government programmes would have to compete with other communities for a smaller pot of money than would otherwise have been the case with DFID intervention. Sector governance, cohesion and coordination are likely to continue to worsen and negatively affect the quality and quantity of services delivered. Incremental Costs. It is proposed to provide £3.75 million over three years. In the economic appraisal, the main costs identified for all options are full project costs plus community contributions. Incremental Benefits. Health impacts of interventions in water and sanitation are not straightforward and can be influenced by a variety of factors. This makes estimating the costs and benefits subject to modelling and assumptions. Of the benefits identified in the WHO study, the data on reduced productivity and health care costs was not available for Nepal, so three main benefits, which account for over 90% of benefits according to the WHO studyx, are explored in terms of a reduction in costs. This disaggregated approach (by which each benefit is treated separately and then values are added together) was selected for our economic analysis. This uses reductions in Under 5 mortality (U5M) due to diarrhoea (as a result of WASH interventions), reduction in lost education days for primary school children, and time savings from water collection (as a result of water supply interventions), and aggregates these to provide an indicative (and conservative) valuation of benefits. To calculate the number of beneficiaries, the appraisal used the data on costs of projects and populations served by various service providers. The known cost per beneficiary has been applied to the £3.75 million to give an equivalent population served for that cost. Reduction in Under 5 Mortality, with the benefits being calculated using the Years of Lost Life (YLL) method. YLL is one component of a Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY - the other component calculates morbidity), and the calculation uses discounted life expectancy to estimate years of life lost.xi Children under 5 make up about 12% of the population. In Nepal diarrhoeal disease is stated as the cause of 25% of under-five mortality, which stands at 54/1000. The formula used is the same used by the WHO for calculating the burden of disease, discounting years of lost life at 3%. Using the Nepal life expectancy of 68 years, every death represents 29 years of lost life (because of discounting, this figure is lower than life expectancy). Using a yearly average income of $490, each life lost represents a loss of $14,210 in purely financial terms (this calculation does not even begin to represent the value of a lost life and all that that encompasses).WASH improvements are expected to prevent about half of the under 5 deaths so the value of benefits will be a function of each of the above multiplied by the number of beneficiaries served by each provider. Reduction in lost education days, by using WHO data for days lost per child per year due to diarrhoea and impact of WASH on diarrhoeal disease. Approximately 2530% of the population in the target areas are primary school children. It is usually assumed that each case of diarrhoea results in 3 schools days lost, and a conservative assessment is that each student has one case per year. It is assumed that 50% of these cases of diarrhoea can be avoided through WASH. Education days are typically valued at half of the average daily wage rate so the total value of education days lost will be the product of the number above multiplied by the population served by each provider. Avoided loss of time for water collection, and associated increase in income generating activities. The WHO study mentioned above shows that the main contributor to direct economic benefits from WASH intervention is time savings associated with better access to water and sanitation services (contributing at least 80% to overall economic benefits) followed by deaths prevented (contributing about 10%).In Nepal in the service provider working areas, women used to spend on average between 90 minutes and four hours per day collecting water on a daily basis. Project interventions have reduced this enormously by between 40 minutes (under option 1) and three hours (as stated by Fund Board and GWS). Mean household sizes vary in the project areas from 4.5 to 6 people per household. Time per household can be calculated and valued at a minimum hourly wage rate. In order to calculate a minimum wage, the GNI per capita for Nepal (2010) was divided by total working hours in a year. The hourly wage was then multiplied by hours saved per year for each project. The benefits of increased nutrition and better cognitive abilities were not considered due to lack of data and the difficulty of estimating them. It is clear that the national trend is for an improvement in nutritional status (child malnutrition 37% in 2006 and 28% in 2011) but whilst it may be reasonably assumed that this improvement is partly due to an improvement in WASH, there is no data to confirm this. Weighting system for the three options. The economic appraisal for the three options has taken a consistent approach to estimating the benefits associated with the respective interventions. The types of benefits for a given “output” (e.g. a clean water supply point) are perceived to be the same in each case. However, the options differ with respect to the time taken for the benefits to accrue, their sustainability, and the quality of the services provided - ultimately affecting the ability of the option to deliver the expected health, education and time savings benefits. To reflect this, a weighting factor for each year of the project design life is applied to the Net Economic Benefits in each year. The weightings used are shown in Table below. Average Sustainability/ Functionality Weighting (%) for: Year Option 1 Option 2 Fund Board DWSS Option 3 LGCDP GWS NEWAH CSP Year 1 Year 2 75 100 90 75 Year 3 75 100 90 75 Year 4 75 Year 5 75 100 80 75 40 100 80 75 Year 6 50 75 40 50 100 80 70 Year 7 50 75 40 65 100 80 70 Average Sustainability/ Functionality Weighting (%) for: Year Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Year 8 65 Fund Board 75 DWSS 50 LGCDP 65 GWS 100 NEWAH 80 CSP 70 Year 9 75 70 65 65 100 80 70 Year 10 75 60 75 65 100 70 70 Year 11 75 60 75 65 100 70 60 Year 12 75 60 75 65 100 70 60 Year 13 75 60 75 65 100 70 60 Year 14 75 60 60 65 100 70 60 Year 15 75 50 55 60 80 60 60 Year 16 75 50 50 55 80 60 50 Year 17 70 50 40 50 80 60 50 Year 18 60 50 40 40 80 60 50 Year 19 50 40 40 80 60 50 Year 20 50 40 40 80 60 50 Year 21 40 40 40 80 60 50 Table 3 - Average sustainability / functionality weightings Option 1 can lead to a reduction in financial leakages from current processes due to greater monitoring and accountability, resulting in an increase in the number of beneficiaries which can be served with existing budget. It would achieve quicker completion of water supply projects due to more streamlined service delivery, and greater effective budget from the financial leakage reductions above. Improved functionality of water supply schemes due to improved project implementation and monitoring would extend benefits for longer. The increased number of beneficiaries would mean increased productivity, health or quality of life for those beneficiaries. For option 1, benefits of sector reform and support to central and local government are assumed to be: a 10% increase in effective budget allocation (and beneficiaries) due to reduced leakages of funds; Projects being completed after four years instead of seven years due to increase in effective budget and reductions in political interference. However, whilst these benefits would be felt the medium to long term, the net benefit in the short term would be small as it would take time for reforms to have an impact; and Improved functionality of projects due to increased monitoring and support. Options 2 and 3 would provide benefits in terms of improved productivity, health or quality of life in the short to medium term as a result of direct implementation of WASH services by either government (option 2) or non-government service providers. There are several service providers currently operating in Nepal, all delivering to different standards and in different districts. This makes a broad comparison between sectors (i.e. public vs. private) unhelpful. Given the limited amount of funds available for this intervention, for options 2 and 3 the appraisal has tried to determine which organisations within government and NGO sectors would provide the best value for money and deliver the most sustainable WASH services if they were to be supported by DFID. To enable direct comparison of like with like, the analysis of costs has been looked it in two ways – including and excluding project overheads. Based on the above assumptions and the weighting systems gave the results presented below. The findings from using 12% discount rate (i.e. more conservative approach) are presented: Option 1 Sector reform and support to central and local government3 Options 2 and 3: WASH Direct Service Provider direct costs Government DWSS RWSS Fund Board LGCDP NGO GWS NEWAH CSP Options 2 and 3: WASH Service Provider direct costs + overheads Government RWSS Fund Board NGO GWS NEWAH B:C ratio 12% discount rate Net Present Value 12% discount rate Internal Rate of Return 5.5 £15 million 37% B:C ratio 12% discount rate (Net of overheads) Net Present Value 12% discount rate (Net of overheads) Internal Rate of Return 2.1 4.2 2.6 £2.9 million £9.1 million £4.7 million 21.5% 45.5% 26.3% 5.2 2.2 17 £7.5 million £2.6 million £58 million 47.4% 24.9% 114% B:C ratio 12% discount rate (Including overheads) Net Present Value 12% discount rate (Including overheads) Internal Rate of Return 3.5 £8.2 million 39.2% 2.9 1.8 £5.3 million £1.7 million 29.8% 20.7% Table 4 - NPVs and Benefit-to-Cost Ratios of different options Analysis of Results Option 1. The benefit-to-cost ratio for option 1 is 5.5 at a 12% discount rate, providing a Net Present Value of about GBP 15 million. This is based on the assumptions above and also on the assumption that the current amount of investment in the sector is maintained in real terms into the future. This will require either: 3It That the development banks and bilateral donors maintain their current support to the sector. This is far from certain as ADB have stated they are is assumed that that current government spend achieves the same improvements as DWSS (as main government agency) for YLL, education and time savings, since DWSS works nationwide. Incremental benefits of option 1 are mainly affected by 10% reduction in leakages. focussing on new small towns and the World Bank has not decided whether to continue support beyond 2012. AusAID have yet to make a decision on funding beyond 2012 and FINNIDA are also far from certain that they will renew support beyond current projects. Or the Government to increase its funding for the sector. The largest benefit-to-cost ratios for government suppliers are delivered by Fund Board and for Non-government by CSP. This is primarily due to the fact that they deliver the largest time savings. The ratios are nearly all lower than the range quoted in the WHO report above (of 546) and the 6:1 suggested for South Asia in the WHO Global cost-benefit assessment of 2004 (see Error! Reference source not found. below) xii but not all of the benefits have been included (including improved productivity and alleviation of health care costs) and the difficult terrain and relatively low number of beneficiaries per scheme in typical Nepal schemes mean higher per-capita costs of construction. In the case of CSP the average per-capita costs suggested by the financial data are only 15-30% of the per capita costs for other service providers (with benefits equalling or outweighing the benefits for the other service providers) 4. Option 2 - Government Agencies. Under option 2, Government agencies are: DWSS – government agency under MPPW responsible for water supply and sanitation in villages >1,500 in size. Analysis is based on average figures supplied through DWSS. Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Fund Board (Fund Board) originally supported by DFID among others but now solely supported by the World Bank. The Fund Board contracts local NGOs and businesses to build water supply systems and work with the selected communities on WASH. Analysis is based on a detailed data set provided by the Fund Board for the GWS Evaluation earlier in 2012. Local government with the support of DoLIDAR through the Local Government Community Development Programme. Data is based on macro data of project expenditure and reported number of beneficiaries, although it is understood that detailed data should be available right up from the village level on every project funded by LGCDP. The project funding matrix in each village refers to the nature of the project, cost and number of beneficiaries (disaggregated by gender, socially disadvantaged groups etc). For government schemes, data on projects is limited. No data disaggregated by scheme was made available from LGCDP, although apparently it is available. The per capita costs for LGCDP are incredibly low and without any greater detail on project costs it is not possible to treat them with any great level of confidence. Overhead costs for DWSS are covered from different government budgets so are non-existent whereas the Fund Board needs to include overheads and their rate is about 25%. The analysis, therefore, is based on construction costs, net of overheads. The impact of including overheads is analysed. Both government 4 There are some concerns about the level of detail and reliability of the LGCDP and CSP data. Allocation of WASH resources through LGCDP and CSP has been excluded as an option from this appraisal, since the community-led nature of LGCDP and CSP resource allocation means that earmarking DFID funding to WASH objectives is not possible. Attribution of costs to specific WASH outcomes is also problematic. schemes for which there is data suggest an average of eight households per tap stand. The Table below shows the benefit-to-cost ratios for potential service providers under option 2, and provides additional information on the different features explaining much of the difference in the benefit-to-cost ratios. As mentioned above, WHO found that 80% of the benefits from WASH come from time saved collecting water. Therefore, the Fund Board’s benefit-to-cost ratios are higher than those DWSS because the time savings claimed by the former are so much greater. The delay in DWSS implementation and delivery of project benefits, and suggestions that sustainability of schemes is less assured, also means that the benefit-to-cost ratio is reduced since by the time schemes start to work, more time has gone by and therefore benefits are discounted for longer. Based on the economic appraisal, the Fund Board would be the only one that would provide enough evidence per se and deliver sufficient economic benefits to warrant selection. Fund Board DWSS LGCDP * 2 7 5 71,429 117,188 1,300,000 8 8 15 740 - 378 180 minutes /HH/day 80 minutes /HH/day 40 minutes /HH/day 17% 5% 5% Not known Often none No known Per head construction costs (GBP) 32.40 38.46 2.72 Mobilising DDC/VDC contributions No Some top up for sanitation subsidy Not known B:C ratio 12% discount rate (No overheads) 4.2 2.1 2.6 B:C ratio 12% discount rate (with overheads) 3.5 - - Years to implement Beneficiaries (for 3.75 million GBP) Number of HH/tap stand Size of project villages Time saved % community capital costs5 Community O&M costs * where data is not available for LGCDP, assumptions have been made based on performance relative to DWSS (the closest service provider type) and considering the type of water supply systems provided (e.g. time saved is 50% of DWSS as DWSS does only piped water supply system rehabilitation (or new) whilst LGCDP does many point water supply systems in the Terai). Option 3 - Non-government agencies. Under option 3, the non-government agencies are: The Rural Water and Sanitation Programme of the Gurkha Welfare Scheme (GWS), previously supported by DFID Nepal. Analysis is based on a detailed data set provided by GWS for the GWS Evaluation earlier in 2012. NEWAH, a Nepalese NGO previously supported by DFID and currently supported by AusAID and WaterAid. Analysis is based on a detailed data set provided by NEWAH for the GWS Evaluation earlier in 2012. 5 Included in the economic analysis Community Support Programme (CSP) which provides funds to communities through CBOs, NGOs and other intermediaries to improve infrastructure and build capacity of CBOs. Analysis is based on average figures supplied by CSP. These service providers have different approaches, implementation modalities and financing arrangements so the appraisal has sought to, as much as possible, compare like with like. As with option 2, the economic appraisal considers the returns on investment for each service provider but as NGOs often have their own areas and criteria for schemes, this section also looks at the socio-economic context in which each service provider is operating and some of the key features of the each of the service providers which give some comparative advantages to some over others. Data on projects is more detailed for non-government schemes than for government schemes although detailed information on overhead costs is only available for two of the service providers which provided data to DFID consultants carrying out the Evaluation of GWS’ Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Project. This shows that overhead costs for GWS are about 48% (assuming that all GWS staff costs are included as overhead costs rather than under construction costs), with NEWAH overheads running at about 25%. CSP overhead costs are sunk elsewhere within the project budget. The analysis considers construction costs (both of the service provider and the community) and then looks at the impact of including overheads. The size of the villages served by GWS is much smaller than those by NEWAH or CSP and the standard of service is much higher at 2 households per tap stand on average versus to six on average for NEWAH and 8-10 for CSP. The fixed costs represent a much greater proportion of costs for smaller villages and the higher level of service means greater incremental costs. The benefits are exactly the same as for option 2 - accounting for reduction in under 5 mortality and lost education days and avoided loss of time for water collection. Rather like the environmental risks and benefits, funding through NGOs potentially means more opportunity for DFID to influence for best practice in the use of its funding than funding through government. The Table below shows the benefit-to-cost ratios and some of the different features of each of the service providers which explain much of the difference in the benefitto-cost ratios. Years to implement Beneficiaries (for 3.75 million GBP) Number of HH/tap stand Size of project villages Time saved % community capital costs GWS NEWAH CSP 2 2 2 33,000 49,261 336,700 2 6 8-10 210 470 620 175 minutes /HH/day 80 minutes /HH/day 150 minutes /HH/day 14% 24% 15% 40 NPR/HH /month (4% capital cost/yr) 1.1% capital cost/year 2% capital cost/year 47.30 30.79 8.91 Mobilising DDC/VDC contributions No Yes - reward for ODF No B:C ratio 12% discount rate (No overheads) 5.2 2.2 17 B:C ratio 12% discount rate (with overheads) 2.9 1.8 - Community O&M costs ** Per-capita construction costs (GBP) The main factor influencing the benefit-to-cost ratios is time savings. Sensitivity Analysis For option 1, sensitivity analysis has looked (at 12% discount rate in all cases) at the impact on the benefit-to-cost ratios of the following, separately and in combination: - a 5% increase in effective population served (rather than 10%)due to DFID support for sector reform - only 50% of the assumed functionality improvements being achieved The benefit-to-cost ratios and NPVs fall significantly if financial leakage and functionality improvements decline. Option 1 (10% increase in population served and 100% of assumed improvements in functionality) (5% increase in population served and 100% of assumed improvements in functionality) (10% increase in population served and 50% of assumed improvements in functionality) B:C ratio NPV £m 5.5 15.1 4.2 10.8 2.4 4.53 (5% increase in population served and 50% of assumed improvements in functionality) 1.2 0.56 For options 2 and 3, the sensitivity analysis net of overheads has looked at the impact on the benefit-to-cost ratios for the difference service providers of different combinations of: - a 25% reduction in YLL due to improved WASH (as opposed to 50% reduction in the analysis above) - a 50% reduction in the time savings quoted by the service providers Although benefit-to-cost ratios change there is no change in the ranking of the service providers. However, some of the service provider benefit-to-cost ratios get close to unity, especially those for DWSS and NEWAH. WASH Service Provider(including overheads at 12% discount rate) 25% reduction in YLL and full reported time savings BCR NPV IRR £m 50% reduction in YLL and 50% reported time savings BCR NPV IRR £m 25% reduction in YLL and 50% reported time savings BCR NPV IRR £m DWSS RWSS Fund Board LGCDP * GWS NEWAH CSP * 1.8 3.2 1.8 2.6 1.6 15.7 1.77 7.07 1.7 4.6 0.78 52.7 18.9% 36.4% 19.4% 27.9% 17.8% 108% 1.36 2.1 2.1 1.65 1.18 10 -53.3 2.7 3 1 -0.7 32.1 14.5% 24.3% 22.4% 18.3% 12.9% 80.5% 1.07 1.8 1.4 1.44 0.9 8.6 -1.19 1.6 -0.49 0.25 -1.6 26.8 11.4% 20.8% 14.8% 15.9% 9.4% 72.4% * Many WASH interventions are small scale, as reflected in per capita costs, so WASH benefits have been assumed to be one-fifth of the benefits of other service providers (10% reduction in child mortality, 5% for sensitivity analysis and time savings 50% of DWSS).In the case of CSP, the WASH benefits have been kept the same as for other service providers (50% reduction in child mortality due to WASH, 25% for sensitivity analysis and full reported time savings).The impact on benefit-to-cost ratio is clear to see. Further sensitivity analysis around the performance of NEWAH and GWS under more pessimistic assumptions shows that a) with 30% of the time saving and health benefits materialising (compared to the base case scenario) NPVs would turn negative. GWS would still have a BCR of 1, and would perform relatively better; b)under the most pessimistic assumption that only 20% of expected benefits would materialise, the GWS BCR would still be close to unity. Sensitivity of GWS and NEWAH(including overheads @12% discount rate) GWS NEWAH 30% reduction in YLL and 30% reported time BCR NPV IRR £m 1 -1.3 10.4% 0.78 -2.4 6.1% 20% reduction in YLL and 20% reported time BCR NPV IRR £m 0.7 -2.5 5.5% 0.5 -3.3 1.8% Generally, there are some concerns about the level of detail and reliability of the LGCDP and CSP data. Data regarding these two projects are reported mainly for information purposes. Allocation of WASH resources through CSP has been excluded as an option from this appraisal, since the community-led nature of LGCDP and CSP resource allocation means that earmarking DFID funding to WASH objectives is not possible. Attribution of costs to specific WASH outcomes is also problematic. In addition, DFID support to CSP is due to end; CSP is also facing absorption issues, bringing into question whether they would be able to allocate significant additional funding. Based on the economic appraisal only, option 1 shows the highest NPVs. However, this option is highly uncertain as it requires institutional change to take place and translate into the intended delivery change (see Institutional Appraisal below). When sensitivity analysis is carried out, option 1 performs worse than other options under several scenarios (see comparison with GWS, for example). RWSS Fund Board and GWS are able to deliver positive and relatively higher net benefits in the range of £10m, with Benefit Cost ratios in the range of 5 (meaning that for £1 spent, benefits would be worth £5, on average). However, the Fund Board faces an uncertain future, with its founder and major funder, the World Bank, currently uncertain about whether to continue investment in WASH in Nepal. Sensitivity analysis shows that under different scenarios, GWS performs relatively well and would be the preferred option, with NEWAH a close second. Summary of Institutional and Social Appraisal A full institutional and social appraisal is given in Annex B, summarised here. Investment in option 1 is not judged to be an effective mechanism to reach the poor and excluded with water and sanitation facilities for the following reasons: Structures established following the Joint Sector Review to enhance coordination are not functioning well; Significant fragmentation at the local level, partially due to multiplicity of actors investing in WASH at local level, but also from a lack of capacity in accountability mechanisms and informal politicisation of local bodies, exacerbated by the absence of local elections; The World Bank study Comparative Assessment of Implementation Modalities, which would inform development partners how to proceed, is not complete until the end of 2012; Significant uncertainties are created by the proposed state restructuring process, meaning that significant investment in governance mechanisms under the current state structure risk being lost following future devolution and federalism; Significant and difficult reform of the community responsiveness of much government funding is needed; There is little coordination between the three significant government water suppliers (DWSS, FB and DoLIDAR) despite the presence of an MoU between all three parties; and Corruption risk is judged to be high. Investment in option 2 is considered to have the following advantages: Government has good coverage at national and local level; There is a credible public sector plan for WASH; and Opportunities for capacity development of Government of Nepal systems for investing in WASH. And disadvantages: Poor coordination amongst not only the development partners working in the sector, but also the government agencies charged with WASH delivery; Inconsistent approach to the allocation of subsidies means rising disillusionment amongst communities with the allocation of government funding; Apparent under-allocation to small communities (15% of funding is reserved for around 30% of the population, resident in villages with a population below 1,000); With the exception of the Fund Board, severe underinvestment in sanitation and hygiene (in other words, in reality, investment in WASH through government would deliver W, and the SH would need to be funded through NGOs); Limited accountability and transparency: monitoring of project impacts would be hard; Politicised allocation processes and lack of an effective rationing mechanism means that schemes take a long time to complete (this is implicitly captured in the economic appraisal); and Corruption risk is judged to be high. The only government delivery mechanism that, based on an institutional and social appraisal, would reliably deliver efficient and timely implementation of pro-poor WASH is the semi-autonomous Fund Board. (The poverty and need focus of the Fund Board is partially addressed in the institutional and social appraisal of Option 3, next, with some evidence that it is targeting the poor and those with the greatest capacity to benefit from WASH). However, the Fund Board faces an uncertain future, with its founder and major funder, the World Bank, currently uncertain about whether to continue investment in WASH in Nepal. Under option 3, two out of the three service delivery options are considered to have strong institutional mechanisms, to be at low risk from corruption, and to offer a high degree of assurance that DFID would be able to measure the impact of its investment, due to good M&E systems. To assess the relative focus of GWS on poverty and need, an analysis of past district focus is provided in Annex B. In conclusion: Access to sanitation is higher in GWS districts than non-GWS districts, and access to water about the same, although less in NEWAH districts. Functionality of schemes is better in GWS districts than non-GWS districts although technicians and tools are less in number. As GWS schemes are a small proportion of total schemes, this means that GWS is operating in areas that already have higher levels of functionality. Fewer WSUCsare registered with VDCs/DDCs in GWS districts. Hunger and nutrition indicators are approximately 30% better in GWS districts than non-GWS districts. Human Poverty Indicators are one level better in GWS districts than nonGWS districts. Population density and number of people per water scheme are much lower in GWS districts than non-GWS districts. The proportion of people in the poorest quintile is slightly higher in GWS districts than non-GWS districts. Overall, the data suggests that NEWAH works in more difficult and challenging districts than GWS. This is not surprising given that GWS’s main criteria until recently was the presence of an ex-serving Ghurka to act as a sponsor whilst NEWAH had a more pro-poor focus. It should be noted that GWS in its Phase 5 proposal is moving to poorer districts like Rukum and Rolpa and the criteria for selection of communities to benefit are broader than before. Based on the institutional and social appraisal discussion above, we rank investment options as follows, in increasing order of delivery risk: NEWAH, for its combination of significant pro-poor focus, quality of institutions, and confidence that we would be able to clearly demonstrate WASH impact with an investment of DFID resources. GWS, closely tied with NEWAH for its quality of institutions, and confidence that we would be able to clearly demonstrate WASH impact with an investment of DFID resources, but downgraded because of the fact that it does not explicitly target poverty. DOLIDAR, noted for its pro-poor focus, but significantly downgraded due to its poor allocation mechanisms, lack of investment in sanitation and hygiene, inability to clearly demonstrate results, and broader lack of sector coordination affecting government service delivery. DWSS, downgraded due to its poor allocation mechanisms, lack of investment in sanitation and hygiene, inability to clearly demonstrate results, and broader lack of sector coordination affecting government service delivery. Fund Board, comparable to NEWAH in terms of the strength of its institutions and ability to report results, but facing an uncertain future due to uncertainty about whether the World Bank will continue to fund it. Option 1, support to WASH sector governance. LGCDP and CSP are excluded since it is impossible to earmark funding for sectors through these programmes: allocations are based on demands made by the community. We have ruled out the possibility of support to multiple options, even though there is a clear need for sector governance to be improved in order to pave the way for future support through national systems. We judge that since the level of funding being allocated for WASH through this programme is relatively low, that the transaction costs of selecting multiple options would be disproportionately high. And Option 1 scores badly on our ability to confidently measure results – measuring efficiency improvements and attributing them to DFID funding would be difficult. Other DFID Nepal programmes address some of the problems identified as a hindrance to sector governance, most importantly, support for PFM reform at national and local level; and support through LGCDP to improve local governance. Summary of Environmental appraisal In the table below the likely impact on / from climate change and environment is categorised as: C - low risk / opportunity Option 1 2 3 Climate change and environment risks and impacts, Category (A, B, C, D) C C C Climate change and environment opportunities, Category (A, B, C, D) C C C The full climate and environment appraisal for each of the options can be found in Annex D. However a brief summary of the reasoning behind the ratings assigned: Option 1. Any high level support to the water sector is more likely to focus on process (how) and organisational reform (who) rather than any change to the services delivered (what) and so any direct climate or environmental risks would be likely to remain unchanged. However providing high level support could enable the climate and environmental aspects to be included in high level policy discussions and integrated into national strategies and protocols that should inform implementation. In addition, greater efficiency in resource use may reduce impact on climate and environment. Options 2 and 3. Community-led total sanitation and hygiene will help reduce the environmental disease burden by about 10% in the communities in which the interventions are carried outxiii. However, any target beneficiary population under a DFID implementation project given the levels of funding envisaged will represent a relatively small opportunity at a national level, as will any environmental risks such as those from increased use of soap and the risk of surfactant pollution and use of timber from unsustainable sources in latrine construction for the current 50% of households without. The potential to establish interest and involvement in wider environmental management exists and solid waste management in association with sanitation is a distinct possibility in work with the Department of Local Infrastructure Development and Agricultural Roads which works under the Ministry of Labour and DoLIDAR. There is the possibility of stimulating environmental innovation through sanitation marketing, with various environmental and social benefits (e.g. consideration of eco-latrines where treated waste can be re-used as agricultural inputs or fuel or small-scale anaerobic digesters for bio-fuels). Current development in these areas suggests, however, that the opportunities are limited in Nepal. Options 2 and 3 could help towards more sustainable management of community water resources. There are some key associated environmental risks (e.g. effects on water supply from climate change/variability and from earthquakes), but so long as these are accounted for in design and implementation and there is sufficient care taken in monitoring then this option presents a low risk nationally. Summary of Conflict Appraisal Full conflict appraisal is available in Annex E. Key conflict risks include the following;i. lack of transparency and participation in selection of target districts and communities, locations of infrastructure within communities, and choice of contractors, labourers and programme staff ;ii. misuse - or perceived misuse - of programme funds; iii. implementation delays and/or poor quality of workmanship, and; iv. undermining of citizen/state relationship by excluding state from implementation modality, or by poor performance of a state implementation modality. Option 1 is unlikely to yield significant (or measurable) changes to community level experience of public services. While this means it would carry few risks of exacerbating community and citizen/state tensions, it would equally fail to capitalise on the peace building opportunities that a well implemented community focussed programme could achieve. Option 2 has the greatest potential to improve citizen/state confidence. However, the reality of state capacity and policy in this sector, its inertia and its vulnerability to political manipulation all point to a significant risk of this option exacerbating tensions in all of the risk categories outlined above. With the modest level of programme funding available it is unlikely that DFID would be able to sufficiently impact on state capacity and processes to change this dynamic. Option 3 carries the greatest potential to manage the identified conflict risks and maximise peace building opportunities, and is therefore considered the preferred option. The potential partners all have a proven track record of managing these risks, and in particular of including marginalised groups effectively in all aspects of programme implementation and oversight. The one weakness of this option relates to the fourth identified conflict risk; i.e. working around the state may reinforce public perceptions of state incapacity. But on balance this weakness is considered to be outweighed by the conflict mitigation and peace building potential of option 3.Moreover, while the fourth conflict risk cannot be wholly mitigated, it can be reduced by ensuring close and public collaboration with the relevant state authorities .Including them where appropriate in programme decision-making processes and M&E is just one of many approaches which could be adopted to achieve this. D. What measures can be used to assess VFM? The economic appraisal used NPVs and BCRs indicators to assess the VFM of the different options. In addition, sensitivity analysis was carried out to test how results would change when assumptions are changed. In the future, monitoring of costs (and in particular overhead costs) will be used to monitor VFM of the selected option. Any comprehensive intervention needs to consider improvements to water supply, sanitation and hygiene behaviour as sustaining these improvements into the longer term. The economic analysis above has compared the direct costs (of construction and community motivation and support) for each service provider. The impact of overheads on benefit-to-cost ratios has also been examined. For GWS, all staff salaries have been included as overhead costs to enable direct comparison with other service providers. Staff costs are high (over 30% of total direct costs) and to include these in construction costs would make the construction costs prohibitive when compared to other service providers. Facet GWS Experience Continuous 1989 Capacity Permanent office staff supported through long term sources (through GWT).Direct implementation of projects. Permanent staff support by WaterAid and other donors. Main project work (50% staff) supported by AusAID. NEWAH works through local NGOs, though in Mid and Far West NEWAH is working through VDCs and DDCs. Scale GWS number of projects (and populations served) usually significantly higher than what can be achieved by NEWAH.1,400 schemes serving nearly 275,000 to date. Geographical extent (39 districts in wider). NEWAH does high quality work but at smaller scale than GWS. Currently delivering 58 schemes for water supply. Since 1989, NEWAH has been leader in sanitation (pioneered CLTS in Nepal) and helped 1.2 million get access to minimum WASH services. Cost and Per capita cost of interventions is quality of highest in Nepal but quality of construction construction and standard of service (1-2 households per tap stand) is exceptional and should certainly enhance functionality and sustainability. Per capita costs are less than 50% of GWS but their some problems with quality of construction have been reported and higher number of households per tap stand (six on average) means that functionality and sustainability not as assured as under GWS. WASH NEWAH engagement since Continuous engagement since 1992 Good at sanitation and hygiene Sector leaders for CLTS and but need to think more widely innovation with local government. They across VDC rather than particular are now working with VDCs and DDCs wards and need to review on project implementation and promotion methods. reporting. Community engagement Gurkha representation has Traditionally strong and linked to local traditionally ensured ownership government. and good management but new areas of work mean that this will not be a strong so will need to work on this area. Poverty focus Working in areas that are above Work in the most difficult average by Nepal standards, but depressed areas on the whole. still low by global standards. Monitoring GWS systems are very strong for Community Monitoring System is reporting and quarterly contact comprehensive and provides much with GWS pensioners enables data. frequent reporting of problems. Value for money will be determined by costs against outputs delivered. The key outputs and their indicators will be as follows: Total costs and costs per head for interventions in WASH Water supply Sanitation Hygiene behaviour each village (including and excluding overheads) Number of households per tap stand Community contribution to capital costs Community O&M budgets – size and % paid WSMC in place and meeting Proportion of senior positions taken by women Secondary: Number of project villages declared ODF Secondary: Proportion of households using sanitary latrines Percentage of population showing improved hygiene behaviour – hand-washing (soap), water storage, hygienic latrine and E. Summary VFM Statement for the preferred option Appraisal Summary Based on a basic ranking of options using critical success criteria, weighted according to relative importance, the following overall ranking is achieved: Option 3 Option 3 Option 2 GWS NEWAH Fund Board 1 2 3, but excluded Option 3 Option 1 CSP Support to sector governance DWSS LGCDP / DOLIDAR 4, but excluded 5 Option 2 Option 2 6, but excluded 7, but excluded The full CSC analysis is shown over the page. The table below summarises the ranking of each option within each section of the appraisal case. Option 1 2 3 6 Sector Governance DWSS LGCDP / DOLIDAR RWSS Fund Board GWS NEWAH CSP Environmental Ranking 1= Economic Ranking6 2 Conflict Ranking 7 Institutional and Social Ranking 6 1= 1= 6 5 4= 4= 4 3 1= 3 4= 5 1= 1= 1= 4 7 1 1= 1= 1= 2 1 Not ranked Excludes overheads in order to compare; overhead data not available for DWSS, LGCDP or CSP. Assessment of Options using Critical Success Criteria CSC>> Modelled VFM Institutional & Social Integrity (incl pro-poor focus, management of corruption risk) Likelihood of demonstrating impact (incl quality of results reporting) Weight (out of 5) >> 4 4 5 2 5 3 1 5 47 5 No 3 1 3 5 41 6 LGCDP / DOLIDAR 3 1 2 5 36 7 Fund Board 4 3 4 5 58 3 NEWAH 2 4 5 5 59 2 Yes - not enough data to model VFM fully Yes - LGCDP funds cannot be earmarked to WASH; not enough data to model VFM fully Yes - Fund Board future is uncertain No GWS CSP 4 5 5 4 5 2 5 5 71 56 1 4 Option Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Sub-option Support to sector governance DWSS Demonstrating low Total Ranking negative environmental impact Deal breaker? No Yes - not enough data to model VFM fully; CSP funds cannot be earmarked to WASH Commercial Case Indirect procurement A. Why is the proposed funding mechanism/form of arrangement the right one for this intervention, with this development partner? DFID Nepal has allocated £4.75m for WASH during the current Operational Plan (OP). Of this, £1m was spent in year one of the OP 2011/12 which is the last year of the Rural Water and Sanitation phase 4 (RWSP).The remaining £3.75mwill be spent through a new intervention in WASH over 3 years from June 2012. The amount directly allocated to the WASH sector is quite small compared to other sectors. DFID has received a proposal for the fifth phase of the Rural Water and Sanitation Project from the Gurkha Welfare Scheme, the implementing unit of Gurkha Welfare Trust (GWT) a UK charity organisation. The GWT will co-fund the project and has approached DFID to provide funds as it has done before, funding four previous phases to a value of over £15m which has benefitted 273,000 people in over 39 districts of Nepal. The funds will be channelled to the GWS using an accountable grant, the GWS has been successfully implementing water and sanitation projects to remote hill communities with small number of households, who are unable to get basic services from other providers in a short time and for the small population size. An assessment of the proposal and its objectives, outcomes and outputs match with DFID’s objectives on WASH. The project with an investment of £3.75m will help to benefit 33,000 and will help DFID achieve its results on access to water, improved sanitation and hygiene behaviours B. Value for money through procurement The GWS RWSP phase 5 is ready for implementation in June 2012. The GWS partnership with DFID is since 1989, over four phases of the project. A recent Independent evaluation was carried out to assess the cost effectiveness of the project before the finalisation of the fifth phase. Some recommendations to be taken into consideration to improve its effectiveness and efficiency have been made, these are now included in the proposal. The project will be implemented using indirect procurement through a non-government organisation the GWS, working directly with the community thus limiting the exposure of fraud and risk to DFID investment and being directly accountable to DFID for the delivery and financial management of DFID funds. Overall project costs are £5.175m of which DFID’s contribution is £3.75m. Direct project costs are 80% of the budget, with 20% spent on overheads such as staff salaries, operating costs etc, similar to other NGOs. Financial Case A. What are the costs, how are they profiled and how will you ensure accurate forecasting? The project will be jointly funded by DFID and the Gurkha Welfare Trust (GWT) a UK Charity. DFID funds will be channelled to the implementing partner the Gurkha Welfare Scheme (GWS), the operational unit of the GWT, through an accountable grant agreement. The proposed Phase V of the Rural Water and Sanitation Project has been allocated with a budget of £3.75m from DFID and £1.42m from GWT. The total project cost is £5.17m over three years, to implement a total of 192 water and sanitation schemes benefitting over 33,000 people from remote hill areas. This intervention is the next and fifth phase of the Rural Water and Sanitation Project. The proposed fifth phase will start in June 2012 and will finish in May 2015. The overall DFID budget is £3.75m over three years. The annual spend profile is as follows; 2012 : £1.25m 2013 : £1.25m 2014: £1.25m B. How will it be funded: capital/programme/admin? The implementation costs will be funded through programme capital and resource funds. The spilt between the programme capital budget and resource budget is £3m capital and £0.75m programme resource budget. The capital costs constitutes direct project costs which includes costs of constructing water schemes, materials, labour and staff costs involved in construction activity. The water supply schemes created through the projects are assets created for the community and handed over to the community as soon as they are operational. C. How will funds be paid out? DFID will have an accountable grant agreement with the GWT through which funds will be channelled to the GWS. The GWS has only two sources of funding the GWT and DFID and does not hold large reserves to cover operational costs for the project. To address this issue DFID will seek treasury approval to pay GWS in advance for up to three months. In order to receive this advance payment approval GWS/GWT will be required to, when returning their signed Accountable Grant Letter, request that they be paid in advance and explain why an advance payment in necessary. On approval of the request and justification for advance, payment will be made quarterly on receipt of a signed request for release of funds. The subsequent quarters will include a financial statement of the spend against the advance and a forecast of expenditure for the following quarter. An annual audit report will be submitted to DFID at the end of the financial year of GWS. In the event an approval for an advance is not received then payment will be made on a reimbursable basis. D. What is the assessment of financial risk and fraud? The assessment of financial risk and fraud is low. GWS has been a trusted partner for DFID since 1989, DFID has funded four phases of the GWS and is now preparing for approval to fund the fifth phase. The fourth phase will finish in June 2012, by when a total of 1,398 schemes (1,132 new and 266 repaired) will have been implemented, benefiting 40,441 households with 273,192 people in 39 districts of Nepal. Additionally 345 school latrines will have been built and hygiene-sanitation education delivered in those schools. The total funding for these durations from DFID and GWT was £15.5m and £3m respectively. The GWS follows a robust system in terms of its financial controls, including a very tight control over its procurement systems. Proper division of responsibility is followed and delegated chain of approval levels is established. Staff are well trained in accounting, procurement and monitoring of project expenses and value for money aspects. The GWS implemented Rural Water and Sanitation Project was assessed by the ICAI team on their last visit in September 2011, an examination of their processes and robust systems gave full assurances to the team. A third party questionnaire (self-assessment) of the organisations systems has been provided, these will be discussed with the project manager and accounting staff in detail to further improve efficiency and effectiveness. E. How will expenditure be monitored, reported, and accounted for? GWS will provide quarterly financial statements to DFID in support of requests for funding. An annual audit is conducted by GWT with a copy of the audit report submitted to DFID annual basis.. The GWS RWSP annual audit is conducted by an external auditor in July each year. In addition to this, HQ GWS Account Cell conducts quarterly internal audits. HQ GWS uses the PS Financials Accounting Software that has a direct link with GWT (UK), all of which help to maintain the precise and transparent accounting of the budget. Also, timely project field account auditing and monitoring of expenditure are carried out during the field visit of head of departments and the duty trekker. Management Case A. What are the Management Arrangements for implementing the intervention? Oversight DFID Nepal will manage the Rural Water and Sanitation project. The Service Delivery Team Leader/Health Adviser will be responsible for overall technical oversight and the Programme Manager will be responsible for the overall management of the project. Management The GWS is the implementing partner and will be responsible for the delivery of the project and its outputs. GWS will manage the funds and ensure proper accounting and safeguard of the funds and management of risk to the delivery of the project. Funds will be channelled to the GWS through an accountable grant agreement. The GWS will directly manage directly the procurement and construction of schemes and will work directly with the communities, there will be no other parties involved. The GWS will ensure all schemes created under the project are included and registered with the VDC and DDC at local levels and discussed and cleared through the annual planning process at the central government level through the British Gurkhas Welfare coordination Committee meetings. Ownership of project will be formally assumed by the community, once the individual schemes have been commissioned. Operational responsibility of the completed projects will be undertaken by Water and Sanitation Management Committees (WSMC) established by the project within the recipient communities. The project will manage and update regularly the asset register of items purchased under DFID funds, these are subject to annual spot checks and will be disposed/transferred as per DFID procedures at the end of the project. B. What are the risks and how these will be managed? There are relatively few significant risks relating to implementation. As such, the probability of failure to achieve the expected outputs is considered to be low. The following are assessed to be the key risks: Inflation exceeding current projections or devaluation in exchange rate of Sterling Pound (£), which may entail a need to reduce the number of schemes and beneficiaries. This can be mitigated through an assessment of cost effectiveness and impact of inflation on the costs of materials and labour at annual reviews. The project will make recommendations on cost saving methods and approaches to deliver within existing costs. Improved hygiene and sanitation practices could be threatened by epidemic, drought or natural disaster. This can be managed through regular monitoring, coordination and cross team working with the Disaster Relief Team and the Health Team within DFID. The security situation might worsen disrupting the development works. GWS has prudent contingencies in place to deal with these possibilities. GWS has thought of scenario plan for various security situations as follows. In addition, the following risks have been identified for the preferred option at appraisal stage and the most recent evaluation of the implementing partner, and these – and the steps we will take to manage them – are identified below. Category VFM Institutional and Social Risk High overheads (48% compared to NEWAH 25%). GWS continues to target communities which already have improved WASH or health outcomes, reducing net benefits on health and labour cost savings. GWS average community size served falls, causing per-capita costs to rise. Economies of scale limited due to small size of RWSP. Scheme cost-effectiveness undermined by insufficient attention to sustainability. Insufficient participation of women in user groups. Insufficiently pro-poor approach. Water and Sanitation User Committees do not function well in GWS districts, making GWS schemes less inclusive. GWS moves away from supporting districts with higher numbers of people living in poverty since it does not target poverty Management of Risk We will ask GWS to make a commitment to reduce overheads in their Phase V proposal. We have asked GWS to introduce a needsbased approach to scheme selection, targeting poverty and need, in their Phase 5 proposal. In early drafts of the proposal the criteria for selection of communities to benefit are broader than before. We will ask GWS to monitor average size of communities served. Seek other sources of funding to ensure stability and continuity of the RWSP. Implement improved M&E system including standardised data collection forms and use the database of schemes to monitor functional status of schemes, short-term management decisions and more strategic questioning of the data, and share with local authorities in each district. Review policy and community agreements so that village O&M funds are used as a contribution to major maintenance. GWS has been asked to ensure active participation of women in scheme user groups. Define “the neediest”, and develop and apply scheme selection criteria including poverty. Review methodology for analysing representation of excluded groups so that it takes into account the proportion of excluded in the overall population served by the Programme for monitoring and reporting purposes. GWS to promote activation of WSUCs. GWS already works in districts with a higher proportion of people in the lowest income quintile than other providers. In its Phase 5 proposal poorer districts like Rukum and Rolpa are identified and the criteria for Category Risk directly. GWS does not respond to requests to implement public tap stands, in order to make schemes more pro-poor. GWS moves away from supporting districts with higher numbers of people living in poverty since it does not target poverty directly. Environment Insufficient attention paid to DRR. Insufficient attention paid to climate change risk. Conflict Working around the state may reinforce public perceptions of state incapacity. Misuse of funds makes communities sceptical of service providers in general. Management of Risk selection of communities to benefit are broader than before. We have asked GWS to implement public tap stands so not doing so will be seen as nondelivery of an accountable grant contract. GWS already works in districts with a higher proportion of people in the lowest income quintile than other providers. In its Phase 5 proposal poorer districts like Rukum and Rolpa are identified and the criteria for selection of communities to benefit are broader than before. Introduce disaster-resilience approach to new scheme build: conduct small research project to determine why some systems and structures suffered damage in the September 16th earthquake, and others did not. Use findings to modify design and construction of new projects, provided the proposed changes are shown to be cost-effective compared with a “do nothing” approach. Promote sustainable management of community water resources. Monitor source yields for 2 years after project completion and encourage WSMCs to continue to monitor and report yields indefinitely to the VDC and DDC, as well as to GWS. Establish formal relationships with VDCs and DDCs in districts in which it undertakes projects; participate in WASH sector meetings of these authorities to coordinate activities and share experience. Ensure that projects are included in both the VDC and DDC annual workplans. WSMC Chairperson should participate in ward and VDC Council meetings to make formal submission of the projects Introduce and make tripartite agreement between RWSP, WSMC and VDC for each completed project, binding for VDC to follow up and monitor the completed schemes, consistent with the LSGA (1999) formalisation of VDC responsibility for monitoring and providing minor support. Such agreements should be developed retrospectively for previous projects as far as possible. Ensure systems in place to ensure no misuse of programme funds. GWS has responded well in the past (to ICAI) on their fiduciary risk management processes. Ensure transparency and participation in Category Risk Other Effectiveness undermined by not implementing community-led total sanitation. GWS innovation does not benefit the national sector. Management of Risk selection of target districts and communities, locations of infrastructure within communities, and choice of contractors, labourers and programme staff. Participate in national level fora, including Sector Stakeholder Group and National Water Supply and Sanitation Coordination Committee, to share the experience of the RWSP and to learn from the experience of others. Work with other like-minded organisations to use experience for advocacy on the challenges the RWSS sector is trying address in meeting the needs of rural communities for affordable and sustainable water and sanitation services. C. What conditions apply(for financial aid only)? None, this is not a financial aid intervention. D. How will progress and results be monitored, measured and evaluated? GWS will routinely submits bi-annual progress reports to DFID in standard format. The RWSP will adapt the new log-framework for a more responsive and easy monitoring by DFID. GWS is responsible for collecting data for indicators at output level. The data will be presented at the end of each GWS financial year (June/July and considered at annual reviews by the DFID project team. A timely mid-term ‘review, annual reviews and a project completion report will be carried out during the life of the project. External evaluations will be carried out by DFID. Logframe Quest No 3570519 of logframe for this intervention. References iWater, Sanitation and Hygiene Portfolio Review, March 2012, DFID iiHutton, Guy. Laurence Haller and Jamie Bartram. (2007). Economic and health effects of increasing coverage of low cost household drinking-water supply and sanitation interventions to countries offtrack to meet MDG target 10. Background document to the “Human Development Report 2006”. WHO 2007 iiiHow Water, Sanitation and Hygiene Interventions Empower Women - A study from Ethiopia, Care.http://water.care2share.wikispaces.net ivProgress on Drinking Water and Sanitation, 2012 Update, WHO and UNICEF, 2012 v Ministry of Health and Population, New ERA and ICF International Inc. 2012. Nepal Demographic and Health Survey 2011. Kathmandu, Nepal: Ministry of Health and Population, New ERA, and ICF International, Calverton, Maryland. viNational Management Information Project (NMIP), DWSS, March 2011. Nationwide Coverage and Functionality Status of Water Supply and Sanitation in Nepal, Final Report. NMIP, DWSS, Panipokhari, Kathmandu. viiRingskog K, Bibby S, Duvvuri DP, Shresta BR. Nepal Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) Sector Assessment. UNICEF 2011 viiiBased on “Water, sanitation and hygiene interventions to reduce diarrhoea in less developed countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Lorna Fewtrell, Rachel B Kaufmann, David Kay, Wayne Enanoria, Laurence Haller, and John M Colford Jr, Lancet Infect Dis 2005; 5: 42–52 Gunther, I, and G Fink (2011). “Water and Sanitation to Reduce Child Mortality: The impact and cost of water and sanitation infrastructure.”, The World Bank, Washington, DC. ix Hutton, G. and L. Haller (2004). “Evaluation of the Costs and Benefits of Water and Sanitation Improvements at the Global Level.” World Health Organization, Geneva. x xiPruss-Ustun, A., et al (2003). "Assessing the environmental burden of disease at national and local levels: Introduction and Methods." Environmental Burden of Disease Series, No 1 World Health Organization, Geneva. http://www.who.int/quantifying_ehimpacts/publications/9241546204/en/ xiiHutton, G. and L. Haller (2004). “Evaluation of the Costs and Benefits of Water and Sanitation Improvements at the Global Level.” World Health Organization, Geneva. xiiiPrüss-Üstün A, Bos R, Gore F, Bartram J. Safer water, better health: costs, benefits and sustainability of interventions to protect and promote health. World Health Organization, Geneva, 2008.