Digital Journalism The Economics of Digital Journalism: What Happens When Traditional Newspapers Go Out of Business in 2039? W. R. Neuman Digital Journalism The Digital Dozen Twelve issues we had better get right if independent, high-quality, professional journalism is to thrive in digital era. Digital Journalism 1) A clear-eyed assessment of the history of journalism Were it left to me to decide whether we should have a government without newspapers or newspapers without a government, I should not hesitate a moment to prefer the latter Never pick a fight with people who buy ink by the barrel Digital Journalism The Romanticized History Digital Journalism The Romanticized History Digital Journalism The Romanticized History Digital Journalism The Romanticized History Digital Journalism 2) A shift from a posture of defense to reinvention Worth defending? Sure Likely to be a successful strategy? Not in the long run Digital Journalism David Lazarus San Francisco Chornicle 3/14/07 I'll come right out and say it: It's time for newspapers to stop giving away the store. We as an industry need to start charging for -- or at the very least controlling -- use of our products online. Digital Journalism David Lazarus San Francisco Chornicle 3/14/07 My thinking is that this is approaching a life-or-death struggle for newspapers, and an antitrust exemption may be the only way that the industry can smoothly make the transition to a digital future. Put simply, we need to charge a fair price for our products, and we need to do so together. Digital Journalism 3)The happy accident of newspaper economics Technical Medium Production $ Advertising Audience $ Digital Journalism 3)The happy accident of newspaper economics Percent Advertising Economics Books 0% Movies 0% Magazines 50% Newspapers 70% Radio and TV 100% Digital Journalism 3)The happy accident of newspaper economics Newspaper Industry Profits Magazines Books Agriculture, Mining, Mfg 25.2% 4.5% 5.5% ~5.0% Digital Journalism 3)The less happy accident of newspaper economics 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 S1 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 Digital Journalism 3)The happy accident of newspaper economics McClatchy Co. CEO Gary Pruitt April 2006 All those skittish investors who think newspapers are a dying industry are, in fact, dead wrong. Far from shrinking, our audiences are growing steadily. Simply put, more people want our products today than wanted them yesterday. Digital Journalism 4) The ideal of media diversity Based on concept of local media market Rethinking diversity – the paradox of critical media scholarship Digital Journalism 5)The Sunstein thesis The ‘Daily Me’ Icon Behavioral studies contradict the Sunstein thesis Digital Journalism 6) The long tail thesis Digital Journalism 7) Ogilvy’s dirty little secret The relationship between investment in advertising and increased sales is stunningly weak, and conditioned on a complex of environmental factors Digital Journalism 8) Amateur hour: blogs and wikis Don’t vilify the amateurs Learn from them Take a lesson from Jimmy Wales And from Google Digital Journalism 9) Meyer’s thesis Digital Journalism 10) The false hope of the ‘online newspaper’ The economics just don’t work Shoveling newspaper content over to a web site and charging admission is a non-starter Digital Journalism 11) Transcending the trinity Norms of professional journalism Wall Street’s ROI Academic research on media effects Digital Journalism 11) Transcending the trinity Digital Journalism 12) A viable economic model for sustained high-quality journalism The new model? “ ‘Sup?” query Personalized Reliable Branded Google model Digital Journalism Digital Journalism The Magic, All-Knowing Answer Machine Commercial 31% Reference 26% Popular Culture, Sports 11% Social 10% Sexual, Erotic 9% Health 7% Government and politics 3% News and current events 2% Digital Journalism You Need To Know What This Man Knows Amit Singhal Google Ranking Algorithm Czar Digital Journalism Transaction-Based Business Model User-Created Content Pull Rather Than Push Context Sensitive Search Personalized Search Digital Journalism The Bottom Line The future of news is the search engine Not the newspaper And not the evening network newscast