An Overview of the
Implementation of New
Profile Models
1

NIDR Profiling Methodology
• (ESIID Usage / Profile Usage) * Profile
Residential Example
ESIID Usage for the time period 4/1/2006 through 4/30/2006 equals 1,500 kWh
Profile Usage for the same time period equals 1,000 kWh
Scale factor calculation: 1,500/1,000 = 1.5
Settlement value equals 1.5 * Profile
PROFILE DATA for 4/1/2006
SCALE FACTOR
SETTLEMENT kwh VALUE
0:15
0.32
1.5
0.48
0:30
0.32
1.5
0.48
0:45
0.30
1.5
0.45
1:00
0.28
1.5
0.42
2

Business High Load Factor
• Example For Trade Day 4/30:
• Most Current Read is 90,000 kwh for 3/15 – 4/15
• Assume the scaling factor is 1
• Trade Day 4/30 would be settled using a 1 scaling factor multiplied by the old profile of say 3,000 kwh for the entire day
3

Business High Load Factor
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94
15-min intervals
April 30 - Old Profile Model
4

Business High Load Factor
• Example For Trade Day 5/1:
• New Profile Model Implementation Date of 5/1/2007
• Most Current Read is 90,000 kwh for 3/15 – 4/15
• Assume the scaling factor is 1
• Trade Day 5/1 would be settled using a 1 scaling factor multiplied by the new profile of say 1,500 kwh for the entire day
5

Business High Load Factor
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94
15-min intervals
Trade Day 4/30 - Old Profile Model Trade Day 5/1 - New Profile Model
6

Business High Load Factor
• A direct cutover from the old profile model to the new profile model will result in the energy being assigned to the Business
High Load Factor class being reduced by approximately 50% from 4/30 to 5/1.
7

Option 1 - Direct Cutover
Challenge
• The direct cutover option results in a significant change in energy assigned to both the business and residential customer classes.
• This will result in a significant change in
UFE.
8

Option 4 - Graduated Option
• One way to mitigate the significant change in energy being assigned to the
Business High Load Factor class is to use a graduated approach
9

Option 4 - Graduated Option
Defined
• Implement the change from the current load profile models to the new profile models over a longer timeframe
• Timeframe is “market defined”
• Allows a maximum threshold for model changes from one day to the next
10

Option 4 - Graduated Option
Defined
• Business High Load Factor profile is created from the existing (old) load profile model
• Business High Load Factor profile is also created from the new load profile model
• The results from the two models are weighted in a manner that allows the change from the old profile model to the new profile model to be limited by a maximum threshold
11

Option 4 - Graduated Option
Example
• Example using a 20 day timeframe to migrate from the old profile model to the new profile model
12

Option 4 - Graduated Approach
– Day 1
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94
15-min intervals
Old Profile Model New Profile Model Day 1 Graduated Model
13

Option 4 Graduated Approach
– Day 2
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94
15-min intervals
Old Profile Model New Profile Model Day 2 Graduate Model
14

Option 4 - Graduated Approach
– Day 3
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94
15-min intervals
Old Profile Model New Profile Model Day 3 Graduated Model
15

Option 4 - Graduated Approach
– Day 19
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94
15-min intervals
Old Profile Model New Profile Model Day 19 Graduated Model
16

Option 4 - Graduated Approach
– Day 20
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94
15-min intervals
New Profile Model Graduated Model - Day 20
17

Option 4 - Graduated Approach
Example
• At the end of the migration timeline, the transition to the new profile models is complete.
18

Option 2 - Consumption Start Date
Cutover
• Another option to mitigate the significant change in energy being assigned to the
Business High Load Factor class is to use a Consumption Start Date Cutover approach
19

Option 2 - Consumption Start Date Cutover
Defined
• Readings that have a start date which are on or after the implementation date for the new profile models have their scaling factors calculated based on the new profile models
• The rest of the readings are scaled using the old profile models
20

Option 2 - Consumption Start Date Cutover
Defined
• Requires new shadow settlement logic that determines the meter reading data which is available and what load profile to use in the usage scaling factor calculation
• Requires both the old profiles and the new profiles to exist for at least 90 days
• Each trade day will have usage profiled using both the new and old profile models
21

Option 2 - Consumption Start Date Cutover
Example
Meter Read / Trade Day Cases Profile Used
MAY 1
1. Meter rd before transition, trade date w/in read, and before transition
2. Meter rd crosses transition, trade date before transition and w/in read
3. Meter rd crosses transition, trade date after transition and within read
4. Meter rd after transition, trade date after transition and within read
5. Meter rd before transition, trade date before transition, but after read
6. Meter rd before transition, trade date after transition and after read
7. Meter rd crosses transition, trade date after transition and after read
8. Meter read after transition, trade date after transition, and after read
Old Profile
Old Profile
Old Profile
New Profile
Old Profile
Old Profile
Old Profile
New Profile
22

Option 4 - Trade Day Cutover
• Another option to mitigate the significant change in energy being assigned to the
Business High Load Factor class is to use a Trade Day Cutover approach
23

Option 4 - Trade Day Cutover Defined
• Trade Days before the new profile model implementation date have their scaling factors based on the old profiles
• Trade Days on or after the new profile model implementation date have their scaling factors based on the new profiles
24

Option 4 - Trade Day Cutover
• Requires new shadow settlement logic that determines what load profile to use in the usage scaling factor calculation based on the trade day being settled
• Requires both the old profiles and the new profiles to exist for at least 90 days
25

Option 4 - Trade Day Cutover
Example
Meter Read / Trade Day Cases Profile Used
MAY 1
1. Meter rd before transition, trade date w/in read, and before transition
Old Profile
2. Meter rd crosses transition, trade date before transition and w/in read Old Profile
3. Meter rd crosses transition, trade date after transition and within read
New Profile
4. Meter rd after transition, trade date after transition and within read
New Profile
5. Meter rd before transition, trade date before transition, but after read
Old Profile
6. Meter rd before transition, trade date after transition and after read New Profile
7. Meter rd crosses transition, trade date after transition and after read
New Profile
8. Meter read after transition, trade date after transition, and after read
New Profile
26