CHINA´S RISE
Is the economic rise of china, a
threat to the western world?
Joseph Nye: “If we
treat China as the
enemy, it will become
the enemy because of
how it perceives what
we do.”
Economical Threat?
Trade
• China's economy has grown at an average rate of 10 percent per
year for the last fifteen years, the highest growth rate in the world
• The staggering growth has lifted hundreds of millions out of
poverty and transformed an agricultural society into one of the
world's most dynamic, industrial markets.
• Total trade in 2004 was more than $1.1 trillion, making China the
world's third-largest trading nation, after the United States and
Germany.
• China today has the greatest openness to trade of any large
economy
• The United States is one of China's largest trading partners, and the
two countries have managed their complex trade relationship: But
tensions are still rising among U.S. officials over the U.S. trade
deficit with China, $162 billion in 2004.
The talk about Energy…
•
China's massive economic growth has caused a corresponding spike in its
energy needs. Although much of the international world is focusing on
China's increased consumption of oil, most of China's economy is actually
run on coal. Some 67 percent of China's energy needs are met by coal,
while only 24 percent of its energy consumption is oil.
•
China imported 117 million tons of oil last year, while Japan imported 200
million tons, and the Untied States and Europe imported 500 million tons
each, according to the Chinese State Information Center.
•
China has invested more than $8 billion in Sudan, which now supplies over
7 percent of the nation's oil. Some 4,000 unofficial Chinese forces
reportedly protect those resources. China has sunk another $70 billion into
Iran's oil and gas industry, which now supplies 11 percent of China's energy
needs.."
Increases its influence
Diplomacy
• China and the United States are leading efforts to prevent North
Korea from developing nuclear weapons.
• China is actively pursuing a foreign policy of "peace and development
to bring harmony, security, and prosperity to all," the official Xinhua
News Service
• In 1971, China had diplomatic relations with sixty countries; today,
that number is 160. It In April 2005 alone, they visited Brunei,
Indonesia, the Philippines, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and
Indonesia.
• Chinese officials have actively wooed new friends and allies.
• With its confident new diplomatic posture, China is becoming more
assertive. Recently, the SCO pushed the United States to withdraw its
troops from Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.
Why the US sees china as a threat?
First,reason
ideological
and have
cultural
factors
The
for American
concern
mainly
Three
different
logics
been
arises
from its
status
in the
make China
a hegemonic
threat.
constructed
to
substantiate
the "China
world
politics
and the and
ideological
Second,
geopolitical
geoeconomic
threat"
thesis.
incompatibility
of China with the Western
factors.
value
system.
Third, the collapse of China.
China's Point of View
• First, China's development depends upon and in return
will contribute to the world peace;
• Second, China will resort to peaceful means for
development
• Third, China's development will rely more on its own
resources and market;
• Fourth, China is prepared for a long-term process of
hard work, even several generations, for economic
prosperity.
• Finally, even as China has achieved its economic
development, it will not seek hegemony in the world or
come out as a threat to any country.
Military threat?
•Beijing's official estimate of its military
spending is currently between $30 billion
A war with any country
and $35 including
billion dollars.
the United States
•Many independent
analysts
would threaten
China'sput
twothe real
figure at greatest
$50 billion
to $65
billion.
policy
priorities,
•The Pentagon's
estimates,
however,
continuing
strong economic
growth
and maintaining
range from
$70 billion
to a high of $105
billion perinternal
year. social stability.
But what about the US?
• In comparison, the
U.S. defense budget
for 2006 was about
$420 billion (PDF),
nearly half of the total
global expenditure on
defense, and roughly
equal to the defense
spending of the rest
of the world
combined.
China As A Military
and Political Threat
A Second Cold War?
Reasons for Distrust



Incompability with western ideology?
The clash of civilizations? (‘the unholy
alliance between the islamic and
Confucian cultures?’)
US hegemony threatened: recent SinoRussian friendship
The more legitimate
reasons for distrust




Recent increase in China’s military
spendings
Chinese attempts to buy US Oil
Reserves (CNOOC – Unocal)
Discouraging neibouring countries from
harboring US bases (Uzbek. SCO)
Chinese relationships with “problem
countries”: Iran, Sudan, and Venezuela
Better reasons for
future distrust






The establishment of the "Joint Statement of
the U.S.-Japan Security Consultative
Committee”.
US-Japanese efforts to "encourage the
peaceful resolution of issues concerning the
Taiwan Strait through dialogue."
Oil
The Containment Policy
Assertive Nationalism – “Century of Shame”
Democracy, or lack thereof?
At the moment







2,900,000 men
300-450 nuclear missiles (can produce +2500)
Long- and mid-range missiles (8000km,
6500km)
Total expenditure: 4% of U.S., 25% of Japan…
But growing by two digits every year
Though significantly weaker in absolute terms,
critics suspect that China may prove stronger
in relative terms
高技術條件下局部戰爭
大中華圈 .. The scary bit
The repercussions






Taiwan?
North Korea?
Another Arms Race?
Loss of a huge market
Tension around the eastern borders
(Indian Armed Forces)
Military or Environmental/Demographic
Threat?
Japan
• China suffered several severe acts of
aggression at the hands of the Japanese.
• Currently Japan and China still haven’t
developed a framework to solve their
territorial disputes and their relationship
has reached a low point.
• The Chinese often suspect that U.S. and
Japan are the originators of a variety of
"China threat" arguments.
• One of China’s principle of guiding
of "China's peaceful rise,“ is
neglecting Japan.
• As China has successfully managed
relationships with the sole
superpower, the second-tier
strategic partners, and neighbouring
countries, China is able to afford to
ignore Japan and occasionally
show some toughness.
• The official New China News
Agency described the joint
declaration as "unprecedented"
and quoted a senior foreign ministry
official as saying that China
"resolutely opposes the United States
and Japan in issuing any bilateral
document concerning China's
Taiwan, which meddles in the
internal affairs of China and hurts
China's sovereignty."
Taiwan
• Taiwanese are descendants of
Chinese. The people who arrived in
Taiwan around 1945 came from
China.
• In 1624, Dutch traders first claimed it
their island for trade between China
and Japan. Later on the Spanish
settled there until they got kicked
out.
• “Taiwan has developed steadily into
a major international trading power
with nearly $427 billion in two-way
trade (2006) and the world's 17th
largest economy.”
• From 1949 until 1991, the authorities
on Taiwan claimed to be the
legitimate government of all of
China.
• China replaced the United States as
Taiwan's largest trade partner in
2003.
Hong Kong Special
Administrative Region
• U.S. Exports to Hong Kong=17.8 billion
dollars (2006)
» 31.9 billion (2005)