MGT 326 Ch 7 Stock Valuation (bdh2e) Ver. 1.2 Fall 2013 STOCK (EQUITY) Learning Objectives: Understand Fundamental Stock Concepts, Terms & Characteristics Define the Stock Investor's Rqd ROR Compute Stock Realized & Expected Total Yield Compute the Theoretical Value of a Zero Dividend Growth Stock (Div. Discount Model) Compute the Theoretical Value of a Constant Dividend Growth Stock (DDM) Compute the Theoretical Value of a Non-constant Dividend Growth Stock (DDM) Explain When to Use the Above Pricing Models wrt the Corporate Life Cycle Explain How Firms Meet the Cost of Stock Understand the Relationship Between NI Growth, Divi. Growth & Stock Price Growth 1 2e created Sum ‘11 v1.1 Spr ‘12 MGT 326 Ch 7 Stock Valuation (bdh2e) Common Stock Basics: Shares of stock are initially sold by a firm; proceeds usually used to buy capital assets (plant, machinery, equipment, etc.) Large quantities of stock are usually only issued once by a firm Small quantities may be issued later (stock options, convertible bonds, warrants, etc.) A share of stock is ownership in a company (see below) The publicly traded stock from a particular company has a unique symbol (the “ticker” symbol) Ex: Apple Inc.: AAPL Common Stock Financial Considerations: May or may not pay a dividend May or may not be publicly traded in a market (i.e. NYSE) Usually gains or loses value over time (capital gains/losses). Price (perceived value) based on many company specific factors to include: Recent and expected earnings Recent or pending litigation Product/service reliability (ex: auto recall) Financial health/stability (ex: ability to service debt) Quality of management Integrity of financial reporting Legal Rights & Privileges of Common Stock Holders Control of the firm: A stock owner has voting rights; the right to vote on key company issues such as electing the board of directors each share of stock has one vote states regulate (by law) frequency and conduct of voting stockholders who cannot attend voting sessions can vote by proxy 2 MGT 326 Ch 7 Stock Valuation (bdh2e) Legal Rights & Privileges of Common Stock Holders Stockholders are entitled to all of a firm’s Net Income The Market for Common Stock Closely Held or Private Stock: Stock from small privately owned firms small companies often don’t have much stock outstanding what stock there is, is usually held by senior management or private owners this stock is often not publicly traded Publicly Held Stock: Stock from large firms most large firms have financed themselves over years (decades) through one or more stock issues stock from these firms is usually (but not always) publicly traded and has been so for a long time in essence, the “public” owns these firms Types of Stock Market Transactions: primary vs. secondary markets (Ch 2) Initial Public Offering (IPO) Market: an IPO occurs when a firm decides to issue stock to the public for the first time many firms have had non-publicly traded stock (private stock) for years prior to going public (i.e. Microsoft 1986) investment banks “underwrite” the IPO IPOs occur in the primary market and, in effect, are OTC transactions almost always limited to large investor firms; this is why you & I can’t get a piece of the action there are initiatives to end this situation 3 MGT 326 Ch 7 Stock Valuation (bdh2e) What makes stocks valuable (why anyone would want to buy them): A way to rearrange cash flows (hopefully in a positive, profitable way) in the form of an investment: stock ownership entitles holders to dividends, however….. dividends (on common stock) are not guaranteed a firm’s management may decide to retain all earnings for various reasons & purposes stock value may appreciate over time; opportunity for capital gain by selling the stock at a price higher than you paid for it thus the expected cash flows from stock consists of two parts: expected dividends & expected capital gains A chance to own a piece of a firm this isn’t a big deal for most individual investors this is a very big deal for corporations wishing to acquire other firms Why firms care about the price of their outstanding stock: Stock prices reflect public perception of and confidence in the firm’s future prospects They want to avoid hostile take-over Question: How do we determine the fair market value of a stock? Answer: One way is to find the PV of all dividends expected to be paid in the future and sum them because…… The value of any financial asset is determined by discounting all future cash flows to the present (i.e. find the PV @ t = 0) and adding them up!!!! 4 MGT 326 Ch 7 Stock Valuation (bdh2e) Common Stock Valuation (continued) Some Terms & Concepts: D0: The most recent dividend paid (usually just before t = 0). This is not a future or present cash flow; it has already occurred. Dt: the dividend a stockholder expects to receive at the end of a some future period ( t is an index) P0: The actual price (market value) of the stock today (t = 0) P0: The expected, theoretical, intrinsic value of the stock at t = 0; (Note: the symbol is the statistics way to say “expected” Pt: The expected price of a stock at the end of some future period ( t is an index) g: Expected growth rate of the dividend rs: Required ROR/Yield. This is the minimal acceptable ROR for an investor; it’s an opportunity cost. For example, if the NYSE has been paying 8% recently then rs for any particular NYSE stock might be 8% rs is also the “cost of stock” from the firm’s perspective (more on this later) rs: Actual or “realized” ROR or Yield; a historical ROR rs: Expected and/or theoretical ROR/Yield 5 MGT 326 Ch 7 Stock Valuation (bdh2e) Expected/Theoretical Yield (rs) on a Stock (This is rE as discussed in your text book) Can we determine the expected ROR on a stock? Yes. There are two ways to make a profit from stocks: dividends capital gains Expected Dividend Yield = ROR from dividends = D1 / P0 Expected Capital Gains Yield = Potential ROR from Selling the stock at some point in the future (let’s say one year from now) = (P1 - P0)/P0 Expected Total Yield = rs = Expected Dividend Yield + Expected Capital Gains Yield rs = D1 / P0 + (P1 - P0)/P0 = (D1 + P1 - P0)/P0 rs is the discount rate we will use to find the theoretical value of the stock by discounting all future cash flows to t = 0 and adding them up →it is the best available expected return offered in the stock market on a stock of comparable risk →it should compensate us for r*, inflation and the associated level of risk for that particular stock →it is the rate at which we expect our investment to grow to achieve a future value →since discounting is the opposite of compounding, we must discount at that exact same rate in order to find the present value →rs (rE)is also called the “Opportunity Cost of Equity” because it is the return the investor forgoes on an alternative investment of equivalent risk and term when the investor takes on the alternative investment 6 MGT 326 Ch 7 Stock Valuation (bdh2e) Expected/Theoretical Yield (rs) on a Stock (continued) Example: A firm’s stock is expected to pay a dividend of $1.25 per share at the end of the year. The stock price was $37.75 at the beginning of the year. The firm’s stock is expected to be at around $38.90 by the end of the year. What is the firm’s expected annual ROR? 1) Find Dividend Yield: D1/P0 = $1.25/$37.75 = 3.3113% 2) Find Cap. Gains Yield: (P1 - P0)/P0 = (38.90 - 37.75)/37.75 = 3.0464% 3) Find rs: 3.3113% + 3.0464% = 6.3576% Finding Realized Return (Yield) (rs) with Dividend Yield and Capital Gains Yield Can we determine the historical ROR on a stock? Yes. There are two ways to make a profit from stocks: dividends capital gains Thus the total realized return has two parts: rs = Total Realized Return/Yield = Realized Dividend Yield + Realized (or Potential) Capital Gains Yield rs = D0/P-1 + (P0 - P-1)/P-1 = (D0 + P0 – P-1) / P-1 Example: A firm’s last stock dividend of $0.75 per share was paid at the end of the 2008. This was the only dividend paid in 2008. The price of that firm’s stock at that time (P0) was $31.95. The stock price was $33.75 at the beginning of 2008 (P-1). What was the firm’s realized 2008 ROR? 1) Find Dividend Yield: D0/P-1 = $0.75/$33.75 = 2.2222% 2) Find Capital Gains Yield: (P0 - P-1)/P-1 = (31.95 - 33.75)/33.75 = -5.3333% 3) Find rs (Total Realized Return): 2.22% - 5.33% = -3.1111% Another Way to Find rs: Compute the average period-to-period ROR over a given length of time (more on this in Ch 7 10) MGT 326 Ch 7 Stock Valuation (bdh2e) Realized ROR (rs) vs. Expected ROR (rs) The key principle of statistics is past performance is a predictor of future performance. Therefore: rs is often used for rs; i.e. rs rs Estimates of future stock values and future dividends are just educated guesses There’s not much guessing about past data Analyst feel more confident using past data than future estimates This is the most common method for finding rs Required ROR (rs) Whenever we invest in something we require compensations for r*, inflation and the associated level of risk of that investment The same holds for stock investments The required ROR for a particular stock is rs There are at least two ways to come up with a value for rs: 1. Suppose your are considering buying stock in Black & Decker Inc., a power tool manufacturing company. You do some research and find that the average stock total yield of all power tool manufacturing firms was 8% for the last five years. You may choose to call 8% your required ROR (rs). 2. Because an investor requires at least what was earned in the past and you may choose to use rs as rs Note on How These Terms are Used in Common Practice: rs, rs and rs are often used interchangeably because rs is often used for rs and rs is often used for rs 8 MGT 326 Ch 7 Stock Valuation (bdh2e) Required ROR on Bonds (rd) vs. Required ROR on Stocks (rs) There is no doubt about rd; it is the current market interest rate for all bonds of the same rating and maturity There is no definitive answer for the value of rs Common Stock Valuation: The Dividend Discount Model Finding the Expected (Theoretical, Fair Market) Value of a Stock (P0) A basic assumption is: any company that issues stock is planning on being around at least for the foreseeable future Therefore, we don’t know when the last dividend will occur Therefore, we will assume that the firm will exist indefinitely Thus, we can model a stock as a perpetuity (recall from Ch 4: PVperpetuity = PMT/ r ) “Pricing” a “zero-growth” stock; (i.e. the dividend always remains the same, forever) Expected Value of the Stock (Base Equation) = Vs = P0 D̂1 D̂ 2 D̂ 1 rs 1 1 rs 2 1 rs D̂ t 1 r t 1 t s As t in the perpetuity equation continues to infinity, the equation converges to: P0 = D/ rs [This is the same thing as a perpetuity (Ch 4) but with different variables] Example: The stock of Jihad Jim’s Travel Adventures Corp. pays an annual dividend of $2. If the required ROR (rs) is 8%, what is the “theoretical” or “expected” price of this stock? P0 = D/ rs = $2 / 0.08 = $25 9 MGT 326 Ch 7 Stock Valuation (bdh2e) Common Stock Valuation (continued) “Pricing” a “constant-growth” stock; (i.e. the dividend grows at a constant rate, forever) P0 = D0(1 + g) = D1 Note: rs must be > g or the model makes no sense rs – g rs - g We don’t know what D1 will be but we can estimate it A firm’s net income usually grows from year to year (see next page). That rate of grow is “g” We assume that dividends grow at that same rate We know what D0 (the last dividend paid) is To estimate D1, we simply grow D0 one period at growth rate g; D1= D0(1 + g)1 (i.e. FV = PV(1 + g)n) Example: The CEO of Jihad Jim’s Travel Adventures Corp. has decided that, since the firm is doing exceedingly well and since future prospects look very promising, all dividends for the foreseeable future will be increased at an annual rate of 2% (g = 2%). The last dividend (D0) was $2. If the required ROR (rs) is 8%, what is the “theoretical” or “expected” price of this stock? D0 0 D1 1 D2 2 Dinfinity D3 3 t = ? (infinity) 4 P0 = D0(1 + g) = $2(1 + 0.02) / (0.08 - 0.02) = $34.00 rs - g Solving the above equation for rs we get: rs = D1/P0 + g 10 MGT 326 Ch 7 Stock Valuation (bdh2e) Common Stock Valuation (continued) Rationale for Constant Dividend Growth: We expect a firm’s net income to grow at least as fast as inflation or else the firm loses value We expect all stock dividends to grow at least as fast as inflation (disregarding any possible capital gains by selling the stock in the future) If this were not the case, why invest in that stock? Thus, it is fair to conclude that an adequate model for basic stock valuation is that for a constant growth stock in which the dividend grows at least as fast as inflation An average growth rate for all stock dividends is the GDP growth rate plus inflation (i.e. g = DGDP + inflation) Firm specific growth estimates are produced by financial services companies and are available from many online sources “Pricing” Stocks with Non-constant Dividend Growth: For most firms, NI doesn’t grow at a constant rate indefinitely Corporate life cycle: emergence, growth, maturity & decline Dividend Growth Rates: Supernormal Growth: “above average” dividend growth typically occurring during the “emergence” phase of a firm’s life cycle Normal Growth: “average” growth typically occurring during the “growth” phase of a firm’s life cycle Zero or Low Growth: typically occurs during the “mature” phase of a firm’s life cycle; if the firm’s NI is growing at all, it’s just keeping pace with inflation; dividends may or may not be growing Negative Growth: typically occurs during the “decline” phase of a firm’s life cycle. This doesn’t necessarily mean the firm is losing money, just that dividends are shrinking 11 MGT 326 Ch 7 Stock Valuation (bdh2e) Common Stock Valuation (continued) “Pricing” Stocks with Non-constant Dividend Growth: (continued) Usually, only the supernormal growth period and the normal growth period are considered; the other two growth phases are too far into the future to accurately forecast Example: A firm just recently paid a stock dividend of $1.15 (D0 = $1.15). The firm pays only 1 dividend per year and that occurs at the end of the year. The firm expects its dividends to grow by 30% for the next 3 years (t=1 thru t=3). After that, dividends are expected to grow at 8% per year for the foreseeable future. What is the theoretical value of this firm’s stock (P0)? Assume rs is 13.4% 12 MGT 326 Ch 7 Stock Valuation (bdh2e) Common Stock Valuation (continued) Pricing Stocks with Non-constant Dividend Growth: (continued) Example: (continued) Approach: break the problem down into two parts; a supernormal growth part and a normal growth part Dinfinity D3 D0 = $1.15 0 D1 1 D4 D5 D6 D7 5 6 7 D2 2 3 4 t = ? (infinity) rs = 13.4% Note: the dividends occur at the end of each period The solution approach is kind of like the changing interest rate problem we looked at in Ch 4 P0 = PV0(CFs1-3) + PV0(PVt=3, CFs 4-infinity) 1) Find PV0(CFs1-3) : Compute each dividend (gSN=30%) then discount each of the dividends (@ rs = 13.4%) back to t=0. Note: D0 has already been paid and is thus not included in the PV Dividend Dt = Dt-1 (1 + 0.3) PV(t=0) 0 $1.1500 1 $1.4950 $1.3183 2 $1.9435 $1.5113 3 $2.5266 $1.7326 PV 0(CFs 1-3) = $4.5622 N=1, I/Y=30, PV=1.15; FV = 1.4950 N=2, I/Y=30, PV=1.15; FV = 1.9435 N=3, I/Y=30, PV=1.15; FV = 2.5266 N=1, I/Y=13.4, FV=1.4950; PV = $1.3183 N=2, I/Y=13.4, FV=1.9435; PV = $1.5113 N=3, I/Y=13.4, FV=2.5266; PV = $1.7326 $4.5622 or I/Y=13.4, CF0=0, CF1=1.4950, CF2=1.9435, CF3=2.5266; NPV = $4.5622 13 MGT 326 Ch 7 Stock Valuation (bdh2e) Common Stock Valuation (continued) Pricing Stocks with Non-constant Dividend Growth: (continued) The cash flow diagram now looks like this: Dinfinity D4 D5 D6 D7 5 6 7 PV0,CFs1-3 = $4.5622 0 1 2 3 4 rs = 13.4% t = ? (infinity) PVt=3,CFs4-infinity = Vterminal = Vhorizon = P3 =? 2) Find PVt=3, CFs 4-infinity : We will find this by viewing this portion of the problem as a stock that has constant growth We will find the theoretical value of a constant growth stock at t = 3 (This is called the “terminal” or “horizon” value) This is equivalent to the PV @ t=3 of all future cash flows Thus PVt=3, = P3 = Vhorizon = D3(1+gN)/(rs - gN) PVt=3, CFs 4-infinity = D3(1+gN)/(rs - gN) = 2.5266(1.08)/(0.134 - 0.08) = $50.5320 The cash flow diagram now looks like this: PVt=3,CFs4-infinity = $50.5320 PV0,CFs1-3 = $4.5622 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 rs = 13.4% 14 7 t = ? (infinity) MGT 326 Ch 7 Stock Valuation (bdh2e) 3) Find PV0(PVt=3, CFs 4-infinity) Discount PVCFs 4-infinity back to t = 0 Discount 3 periods PVt=3,CFs4-infinity = $50.5320 PV0,CFs1-3 = $4.5622 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 t = ? (infinity) rs = 13.4% PV0(PV t=3, CFs 4-infinity) = $50.5320 / (1 + 0.134)3 = $34.6519 or N=3, I/Y=13.4, FV=50.5320; CPT,PV: = $34.6519 The cash flow diagram now looks like this: PV0(PVt=3,CFs4-infinity) = $34.6519 PV0,CFs1-3 = $4.5622 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 t = ? (infinity) rs = 13.4% 4) Find P0: P0 = $4.5622 + $34.6519 = $39.21 What’s the point of all this? Answer: This is how the price is estimated for an IPO of stock This is how you can get a more accurate estimate of what any stock should (in theory) cost in order to determine if the current market value of a stock is way over/under valued 15 MGT 326 Ch 7 Stock Valuation (bdh2e) Common Stock Valuation (continued) Example: The stock of Java Jim’s Gourmet Coffee Inc. is currently selling for $65 per share. The firm pays dividends each quarter and they are expected to grow at a rate of 16% per year for the next nine months. After this time, the dividends are expected to grow at a constant rate of 8% per year for the foreseeable future. The firm’s most recent dividend was $0.50. The stock's required rate of return is 12%. What is the theoretical value of this stock? 16 MGT 326 Ch 7 Stock Valuation (bdh2e) Common Stock Valuation (continued) What do you do if a company doesn’t pay dividends? Answer: Use Free Cash Flows (FCF) per share instead of dividend per share For a definition of FCF, refer to pp 299-303 Using FCF/share for future cash flows will produce a higher P0 than if you use dividends for future cash flows Stock Valuation Summary: These models for stock valuation are not precise since: g is the result of an educated guess we assume g is stable and constant; even in the case when we have more than one g (non-constant dividend growth), but g can and probably will change and thus not be constant nothing lasts forever risk (volatility, uncertainty associated with indefinite life, etc.) has not been addressed These models are useful for comparative stock analysis you can compare the theoretical values with market values to determine if stocks are over/under valued if you use the same model for all the stocks you evaluate, the biases discussed above apply uniformly Point: Because of the uncertainty of the stock valuation parameters, (g, rs and no specified end date) the best we can do is estimate the theoretical value of stock This is also why there are several methods (Discounted Free Cash Flow model, Comparable Firm Valuation method, Total Payout Model) to find stock theoretical value 17 MGT 326 Ch 7 Stock Valuation (bdh2e) Estimating a Future Stock Price Example: Jihad Jim’s Travel Adventures Corp. stock currently sells for $35, its dividends have an annual growth rate of 1.5% and its next dividend is expected to be $1 per share. If the dividends for this stock actually grow 1.5% per year, what is the expected value of the stock one year from now? P1 = P0(1 + g) = $35(1 + 0.015) = $35.53 or N=1, I/Y=1.5, PV=35; FV = $35.53 Note: g is a periodic rate! Example (continued): The dividends for the above stock actually grow at 3% per year and the firm pays quarterly dividends. What is the expected value of the stock one year from now? P1 = P0(1 + g/m)n = $35(1 + 0.03/4)4 = $36.06 or P/Y=4, N=4, I/Y=3, PV=35; CPT,FV = $36.06 18 MGT 326 Ch 7 Stock Valuation (bdh2e) Some Important Theoretical Relationships Consider the formula for theoretical value of a constant growth stock: P0 = D1 rs – g Solving the above equation for rs we get: rs = D1/P0 + g Shift the from P0 to rs and we get rs = D1/P0 + g (Eqn 1) Now consider the formula for expected total yield: rs = D1 / P0 + (P1 - P0)/P0 Dividend Yield Capital Gains Yield Substitute Eqn 1 for rs in the above equation and we get: D1/P0 + g = D1 / P0 + (P1 - P0)/P0 Thus g = (P1 - P0)/P0 = Capital Gains Yield What Does All This Mean? In theory, expected dividend growth rate equals the rate at which one should expect stock price to increase Since we have assumed the g equals the rate at which NI increases then: In theory, the rate at which a stock’s price increases should equal the rate at which that firm’s NI increases 19 MGT 326 Ch 7 Stock Valuation (bdh2e) Preferred Stock: Definition: A security that provides a share in a company and a scheduled payment of a fixed dividend. They are not usually offered to the general public Similar to a coupon bond because the dividend is a fixed amount and paid on a fixed schedule Similar to common stock since the dividend does not have to be paid on schedule (it can be deferred) and there is no expiration date of the stock Holders of preferred stock have priority over common stock holders in the distribution of a company's funds (dividends and bankruptcy proceeds) Preferred Stock Dividend: Dp Preferred Stock Required ROR: rp; this is not the same as rs; Why not? Vp = Dp / rp rp = Dp / Vp The Cost of Stock As previously mentioned rs (required ROR, from investor’s perspective) is also the “cost of stock” from a firm’s perspective The cost of stock is, in essence, a management goal: →management must run the firm such that its value continues to improve →this means that a firm’s mgt must try to make stock total yield (dividends & cap. gains) match investors’ required ROR →If not, investors buy less of the firm’s outstanding stock the stock falls in price due to decreased demand the firm becomes more vulnerable to take-over 20 MGT 326 Ch 7 Stock Valuation (bdh2e) Failure to Meet the Cost of Debt vs. Failure to Meet the Cost of Stock Failure to Meet the Cost of Debt is more imminent but recoverable →if you miss an interest payment, you’re (technically) bankrupt →this is a periodic (month to month, quarter to quarter) possibility; thus this possibility is imminent →however, firms can recover from bankruptcy Failure to Meet the Cost of Stock is not imminent but unrecoverable →if the firm fails to meet investor’s required ROR on stock, current stock holders will sell their stock and potential new stock investors won’t buy it →if this continues, quarter after quarter, year after year, the stock price will continue to fall until it becomes cheap enough for a hostile take-over →firms rarely recover from hostile take-overs Price/Earnings Ratio (P/E): Shows the dollar amount investors are willing to pay for $1of reported (current) earnings Must calculate Earning per Share (EPS) first EPS = NI available to common stockholders / # of common shares outstanding P/E = Market price per share of common stock / EPS 21 MGT 326 Ch 7 Stock Valuation (bdh2e) Price/Earnings Ratio (P/E) (continued): Example: A firm has 5,000,000 shares of common stock outstanding. Its most recent quarterly earning report indicated NI of $7m. This firms stock currently sells for $25.60. Find the P/E Ratio for this firm a) Compute EPS: EPS = $72,000,000 / 5,000,000 shares = $1.40 per share b) Compute P/E Ratio: P/E = $25.60 / $1.40 = 18.29 “times earnings” P/E Analysis Interpretation: Smaller is usually (but not necessarily) better. Indicates whether a firm’s stock is undervalued or over valued If the P/E is higher than average, the stock is overvalued If the P/E is lower than average, the stock is undervalued Example: Consider the following P/E Ratios: Firm A Firm B Industry Ave. 20 40 30 Which firm’s stock is overvalued? Undervalued? P/E is higher for firms with high growth prospects Why? P/E is lower for firms considered to be risky Why? One must always ask why (the stock is over/under valued) P/E represents the markets perception of the stock’s value Is the market seeing something that you aren't? “Irrational Exuberance” (ref. ‘90’s tech. stock boom) bad press / bad rep (ref. Phillip Morris) 22 MGT 326 Ch 7 Stock Valuation (bdh2e) Cost of Additional Issue of Common Stock: Firm’s rarely issue new stock in large quantities Viewed as a negative signal with respect to a stock’s true value New stock issue devaluates stock currently outstanding →dilutes ownership value →automatically lowers EPS A new issue of stock typically lowers the price of that firm’s stock (supply & demand forces a new price equilibrium) Cost of new common stock (equity): re = D1 / [P0(1 - F )] →F = Flotation Costs: the cost (per share) to issue the new stock, expressed as a percentage of the stock price (P0) Other Ch 9 Topics (read them if you plan to be a Finance major) -Dividends vs. Investment growth -Share Repurchases and the Total Payout Model -Discounted Free Cash Flow Model -Valuation Based on Comparable Firms -Valuation Multiples , Limitations of Multiples and Comparison With Discounted Cash Flow Methods -Information, Competition and Stock Prices 23