Young Adults, Economic
Precariousness and Housing
Ann Berrington, University of Southampton
Acknowledgements to Juliet Stone, Peter Tammes & Steve Roberts
The Crisis for Contemporary Youth: Opportunities and Civic
Values in Comparative, Longitudinal and Inter-generational
Perspective. 4-5th June 2015, London.
Overview
1. Changing socio-economic and policy context
2. With whom do young adults live?
3. What is the impact of economic precariousness on
transition out of parental home?
4. Discussion
1. Changing socio-economic and policy
context
Increased Economic Precariousness
• Increased enrolment in
HE.
– Increased student debt.
• Increased youth
unemployment and
economic insecurity for
those in work.
– Part time, temporary &
short hours contracts.
4
Declining affordability of private housing
– Increased house prices, lack of mortgage credit.
– Increased rental prices, deposits.
Source: Shelter (2015)
First time buyers now older, middle earners squeezed out
Source: Shelter (2015)
New house building in UK each year 1920 to 2013
(Northern Ireland included only from 1948)
Total
450,000
Private
Sector
400,000
350,000
Public Sector &
Housing Association
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
1920
1930
1940
1950
Sources: From 1946: DCLG live
tables. Earlier: Scottish Housing,
and AE Holmans 2005
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Annual average growth in number of
households (source: DCLG Live Table 401)
Increased reliance on private rental sector
Percentage private renting by age of Household
Reference Person UK, 2001 and 2014
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
20-24
25-29
30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54
Age of household reference person
2001
Source: Labour Force Survey
2014
55-69
70+
Welfare retrenchment
– Residualisation of social housing sector
– Restrictions in housing benefit/Local Housing
Allowance (LHA)
• Shared Accommodation Rate under 35 single young adults
• Reductions in value of LHA
• Overall benefit cap, soon to be reduced further
9
2. With whom do young adults live?
% living with a
parent, UK,
2001, 2011 and
2014
Female
Male
Source: ONS,
from LFS
Household Type by Economic Activity Status.
Women aged 25-29, UK 2009/10
% in each living arrangement
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
sharing with others
50%
living alone
40%
lone parent
with partner
30%
with parents
20%
10%
0%
econ active
employed
econ
inactive
Source: Understanding Society
unemployed FT student family care
Tenure distribution of young women living outside parental
home according to age and household type, UK 2012.
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Private Rent
Source: UK LFS. Berrington & Stone (2014)
Social Rent
Sharing
30-34
WOMEN
Owner Occupier
Alone
25-29
Lone parent
With partner
Sharing
Alone
Lone parent
With partner
Sharing
Alone
Lone parent
With partner
20-24
Percentage of young adults who are single and living outside
the family home in shared accommodation, UK 2012 and
2014
30
25
20
15
2012
2014
10
5
0
20-21
22-24
25-29
30-34
Women
Source: Labour Force Survey
20-21
22-24
Men
25-29
30-34
Concealed Families on the Rise Again, Especially in London
Percentage of families that are concealed according to age of head of
family unit and family unit type, Eng & Wales, 2011
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Lone
Couple
All
parent families families
families
Lone
Couple
All
parent families families
families
24 and under
Series1
Source: 2011 Census
25-34
Series2
3. What is the impact of economic
precariousness on chances of leaving parental
home?
Measuring economic precariousness
UK 25-29 year-olds, 2009/10
% of total who are
unemployed
employed
semi-/
routine
employed
part-time
employed
temporary
Men
13
18
6
7
Women
8
16
26
8
Source: Berrington A. et al. (2014) Economic Precariousness and Young Adults’
Living Arrangements., ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper.
Analytical Framework – analyses leaving home
Parental characteristics
• Parental household
income
• Maternal education
• Parental family
structure
Probability of transition
out of parental home
Young adult’s
characteristics
• Economic activity /
precariousness
• Highest educational
qualification
• Ethnicity
• Region residence
Modelling Transition Out of Parental Home
• Analysis of paired waves of Understanding Society (UKHLS)
data waves 1-3
• Sample: men and women aged 16-29 living at home at t0
• Logistic hazards model of leaving home between t0 and t1
• Parental background and individual level explanatory
variables
• I will show findings for employed young men
Secure (i.e. permanent full time work)
vs
Insecure work (i.e. part time or temporary work)
Predicted annual probabilities of leaving parental home by
job security and parental household income. UK employed
males, 16-22, 2009-2013.
Permanent full time job
Insecure job
0.12
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00
Highest quartile
of HH income
2nd highest
3rd highest
Lowest quartile
quartile HH
quartile HH
HH income
income
income
Other variables held at reference category: white, higher educated, living in
London, high maternal education, living with two natural parents
Predicted annual probabilities of leaving parental home by
job security and parental family structure. UK employed
males, 16-22, 2009-2013.
Permanent full time job
Insecure job
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
Two natural parents
Two - other parents
Lone parent
Other variables held at reference category: white, higher educated, living in London, high
maternal education, highest quartile of HH income
Predicted annual probabilities of leaving parental home
by job security and ethnicity. UK employed males, 23-29,
2009-2013.
Full time permanent job
Insecure job
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
White
Indian
Pakistani &
Bangladeshi
Other and mixed
Other variables held at reference category: higher educated, living in London, high maternal
education, highest quartile of HH income, living with two natural parents
4. Discussion
Young Adults Priced Out of Owning a Home
• Private rented sector dominant role in housing pathways for
older / wider sector of population.
• House price to income ratios rapidly increasing from 2001
onwards.
• Mortgage interest low but large deposits required (Help to
Buy ~ 100,000 homes).
• Inter- and intra-generational inequality in housing
pathways.
• Need to increase availability of stable, good quality rented
accommodation for increasing numbers of young families.
• Regulation of PRS – new life course phases.
• “The Government must build more of the right homes at the
right prices in the right areas”’ David Orr (National Housing
Federation)
Transition to Residential Independence
• Are these trends result of short term crisis or part of a
longer term change in nature of housing transitions?
• Early home leaving seen both among advantaged young
adults (e.g. to attend HE), and among disadvantaged (e.g.
more likely to leave to search for a job, family friction).
• Select group who remain in parental home in late
twenties and early thirties tends to be socio-economically
disadvantaged
• Returning home esp. after HE, partnership dissolution
(Stone et al., 2014)
Policy Implications
•
•
•
•
Lack of ability of some vulnerable groups to return home.
Queen’s Speech => 18-21 yr olds => homelessness
Need supported pathways for early, non-student leavers.
Importance of policy to recognise gender and ethnic
differences in housing pathways.
• Implications of changes to level of LHA, e.g. benefit claimants
priced out of London
• Slight increase in sharing - At what age should we expect young
people to live in shared housing?
• Current housing policy supports main carer of dependent
children but ignores non-resident parent.
References
Berrington, A. and Stone, J. (2014) Young adults’ transitions to residential
independence in Britain: The role of social and housing policy. In Hamilton, M.,
Antonucci, L. & Roberts, S. (Eds.) Young People and Social Policy in Europe. Palgrave
Macmillan.
Berrington, A. et al. (2014) Economic Precariousness and Young Adults’ Living
Arrangements., ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper.
http://www.cpc.ac.uk/publications/cpc_working_papers.php
Shelter (2015) Housing Affordability for First Time Buyers, March 2015.
Stone,J.,et al. (2011) Demographic Research, 25(20):629-66. The changing
determinants of UK young adults' living arrangements. http://www.demographicresearch.org/volumes/vol25/20/25-20.pdf
Stone, J. et al. (2014) Gender, turning-points and boomerangs: returning home in
the UK. Demography, 51, (1), 257-276.
27
Acknowledgements
This research is funded by ESRC Grant numbers RES-625-28-0001 and
ES/K003453/1. The Centre for Population Change is a joint initiative
between the University of Southampton and a consortium of Scottish
Universities in partnership with ONS and NRS. The findings,
interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those
of the authors and should not be attributed in any manner to ONS or NRS.
Understanding Society is carried out by the Institute for Social and
Economic Research at the University of Essex. The UK Labour Force
Survey is carried out by the Office for National Statistics. Access to these
data is provided by the UK Data Archive. The original data creators,
depositors or copyright holders, the funders of the Data Collections (if
different) and the UK Data Archive bear no responsibility for their further
analysis or interpretation.
28
• SPARE SLIDES
Unemployment rate 1992-2013 according to graduate
status, UK
Recent graduates
Non graduates aged 21-30
16
Non recent graduates
Non graduates aged over 30
14
Unemployment Rate
12
10
8
6
4
2
Source:
ONS, 2014
Q2 2013
Q2 2012
Q2 2011
Q2 2010
Q2 2009
Q2 2008
Q2 2007
Q2 2006
Q2 2005
Q2 2004
Q2 2003
Q2 2002
Q2 2001
Q2 2000
Q2 1999
Q2 1998
Q2 1997
Q2 1996
Q2 1995
Q21994
Q2 1993
Q2 1992
0
Household Type by Economic Activity Status.
Men aged 25-29. UK 2009/10
% in each living arrangement
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
sharing with others
50%
living alone
40%
lone parent
30%
with partner
20%
with parents
10%
0%
econ active
econ
unemployed FT student
inactive
Reported parental family type at age 14, UK men
and women aged 16-24 in 2009-10 by ethnic
group.
100%
Percentage (weighted)
90%
Two biological parents
Mother and step father
Father and step mother
Lone mother
Lone father
Other
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Ethnic group
Large cross-national variations in co-residence among
young adults
% males aged 25-34 living with a parent in 2012 and 25-29
male unemployment rate in 2012
33
Table 1: Dimensions and indicators of economic precarity (See CPC
Working paper #55 / Briefing paper # 22)
Dimensions
1-Precarious labour market
Types
A-labour insecurity
Indicators
i-(Un)employed
ii-Occupational class & mobility
2-Precarious employment
relations
B-income insecurity
A-Employment insecurity
B-Skill reproduction
insecurity
3-Precarious social and
political relations
i-Earnings, wages
i-Part-time contract
ii-Temporary contract
iii-Other: seasonal, shifts
i-Training & development
C-Work insecurity
i-Protection against accidents,
illness, inferior treatment
A-Representation insecurity
i-Trade union representation
B-Social insecurity
ii-Right to strike
i-Social benefits & social policies
ii-Role of partner, parents or
other relatives
Adapted from Kalleberg (2009), Standing (2011), and Wilson and Ebert (2013).
25-34
18-24
18-24
men
25-34
women
Employment insecurity: % part-time according to
gender, age and occupational class (See BP #22)
Semi-routine/routine
Intermediate/lower supervisory/technical
Managerial/professional
Semi-routine/routine
Intermediate/lower supervisory/technical
Managerial/professional
Semi-routine/routine
Intermediate/lower supervisory/technical
Managerial/professional
Semi-routine/routine
Intermediate/lower supervisory/technical
Managerial/professional
0
Source: UKHLS 2009/10
10
20
30
40
50
60
5. Reported ideal age for leaving home by gender
and ethnicity, UK 2011/12.
Ethnicity
Males
Females
Mean# (se) % nonnum.
Mean# (se) % nonnum.
White
21.3 (0.1)
12.1
21.1 (0.1)
7.6
Indian
23.1 (0.5)
15.0
22.8 (0.4)
16.9
Pakistani &
Bangladeshi
Black
23.5 (0.4)
24.5
23.3 (0.4)
18.1
22.5 (0.4)
12.8
21.5 (0.3)
12.0
Other & mixed
21.5 (0.4)
11.1
21.6 (0.3)
10.1
Source: UKHLS wave 3, 16-21 year olds living at home.
There was already an increase in proportions
remaining in parental home prior to recession
Percentage (weighted)
% males aged 25-34 living with parents, 1998 and 2008, by
economic activity, UK.
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1998
2008
Employed FT,
Other
Unemployed
perm
employed
Economic Activity
Student
Inactive
Source: UK LFS. Stone et al. (2011) The changing determinants of UK young adults' living
arrangements. Demographic Research 25(20):629-66.
37
Household Type by Economic Activity Status.
Men aged 25-29. UK 2009/10
% in each living arrangement
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
sharing with others
50%
living alone
40%
lone parent
30%
with partner
20%
with parents
10%
0%
econ
active
employed
Source: UKHLS, w 1
econ
unemployed FT student
inactive
Two sets of models for employed men:
1) those aged 16-22 at t0
2) those aged 23-29 at t0
Model 1
Model 2
Model 3
Job insecurity
Model 1 + respondent’s level of education, ethnicity,
region residence
Model 2 + maternal education, parental household
equivalised income, parental family structure
Results for employed men: Odds ratios for leaving home,
2009-2012
Aged 16-22
Model 1
Job
insecurity
Model 2
+ indv. char.
Model 3
+ parental char.
Job security (ref. =
permanently employed)
1
1
1
Insecure job
0.859
0.902
0.887
Aged 23-29
Model 1
Job
insecurity
Model 2
+ indv. char.
Model 3
+ parental char.
Job security (ref. =
permanently employed)
1
1
1
Insecure job
0.499***
0.520**
0.515*
5. Young non resident fathers
Young Non-resident Fathers
• UK distinctive in high proportion of children not living with
both natural parents.
• Rules for social housing entitlement & housing benefit
assume one parent has primary care of child.
• But shared parenting takes place and is encouraged.
• Non-resident parent will be classed as not having children and
hence not qualify for e.g. access to social housing, will be
affected by SAR & ‘bedroom tax’.
How many young men are reported to be nonresident with at least one of their children?
Reported prevalence of non-resident fathers in the UK by
age group, UKHLS, 2009-2010
Age group
Non-resident fathers
% of all men % of fathers
20-24
3.1%
37.2%
25-29
7.7%
26.3%
30-34
9.5%
19.5%
Total (20-34)
5.4%
24.2%
Source: UK LFS. Berrington & Stone (2014) Young adults’ transitions to residential independence in Britain: The role of
social and housing policy. In Hamilton, Antonucci & Roberts (Eds.) Young People and Social Policy in Europe. Palgrave
Macmillan.
With whom are young non-resident fathers living?
Distribution of living arrangements among UK non-resident
fathers by age group, 2009-2010. UKHLS.
With parents
With partner
Living alone
Sharing
Percentage (weighted)
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
20-24
25-29
Age group
30-34
Source: UK LFS. Berrington & Stone (2014) Young adults’ transitions to residential independence in Britain: The role of
social and housing policy. In Hamilton, Antonucci & Roberts (Eds.) Young People and Social Policy in Europe. Palgrave
Macmillan.