The fragmentation of European
power
José Ignacio Torreblanca
Icaria / Política Exterior, 2011
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More information about the book: http://cort.as/11SR We would like to thank Nika Prislan with her help in
the production of this presentation
In a world where China and other emerging countries are on the rise,
the power and presence of the European Union is becoming marginal
and its voice weaker. However, it cannot be said that the EU is weak
nor that it lacks power. Today it is still the world’s biggest economy, the
second biggest commercial block, the biggest aid donor and the world’s
second biggest military power. Europe is powerful but introverted and
therefore it exerts its power in a fragmented manner. Although the
European project is in crisis, its decline is not inevitable.
¨This book analyzes the difficulties for Europe in acting united and being a relevant
power in the world, but it does so from a conviction that the values Europe represents
are not only the best ones but also the only ones that can guarantee peace and
prosperity for the Europeans.¨ Javier Solana
¨This book offers an excellent exercise in summarizing and a reflection on the last
decade in Europe, which involves one of the greatest displacements of world power
that has ever been seen by current generations. The idea of Europe as a fragmented
power perfectly captures the nature of its problems and limitations and is very useful
for devising the possible paths that could be taken for the recovery of the European
idea.¨ Lluís Bassets
¨José Ignacio Torreblanca, through his weekly articles in El País, has taught us how
often, in the construction of Europe, the king walks naked. In ´The Fragmentation of
European power,´ these flashes of virtue form a pool, and lose the attractiveness of a
prose, the unexpected from the images or the daily apparel, curdling from a splendid
image which matures and which, without doubt, forms what nowadays constitutes
the biggest challenge in which us Spanish must confront at the beginning of the 21st
century. ¨ Ana Palacio
¨’European power,’¨ whose fragmentation José Ignacio Torreblanca studies, never
existed in reality. However, the deconstruction of this ghost reveals some blueprints in
how to build a ‘European habitat’ in the real world’s ecosystem.¨ Carlos Alonso
Zaldívar
The fragmentation of European power
José Ignacio Torreblanca
Icaria / Política Exterior, 2011
(232 pages 18 €)
Content
Where the idea to write this book occurred:
two narratives of power
Typical topics. Hard power: Skopje
(Macedonia), February 2008 : The
United States builds a large and ugly
embassy. Link
In the meantime, Spain and the rest of the
Europeans were settling in precious
mansions. Soft power: “Sense and
sensibility”. Link
Hard and soft power. Are Europeans really from Venus and Americans from Mars? Is Europe a ‘normative’ or
‘civil’ power? It´s time to overcome this discussion; Europe’s power is neither hard nor soft, it is fragmented.
Chapter 1: The end of the European dream
The Asian century
Worldmapper helps us to reconstruct the world according to different categories and magnitudes. If population
size is taken into account, the world would appear as on the image above. China and India alone have 40% of
the world’s population. Asia has 60%.
Source: Worldmapper
A declining Europe
In 1960, one out of every five habitants in the world was a European. However in 2005, Europe had already lost
half of its population (in relative terms), leading to a situation where only one in every ten habitants in the world
was European..
Source: Eurostat
2010
In 1960, one out of every 5 people was
European, in 2050, only one in every 20 will be so
According to current demographic projections, there will be less Europeans who will also be older. If one looks at
Russia, it will age even faster. Due to its demographic problems it appears as a European power. On the other hand,
the United States, which is capable of attracting and integrating immigrants, has the opposite demographic
perdictions than Europe.
Source: Eurostat
2008
Europe without Europeans
In 2005 Europe had 11.2% of the world’s population, China 20.02%, India 17.4% and the United States 4.6%. The
projections state that in 2050 Europe will have around 7.5% of the world’s population, China 15% and India
17.6%. These statistics should force us to face up to the challenge of how to ¨create a Europe without Europeans.¨
Europeans are old, expensive and declining in number while at the same time they do not indentify themselves
with the European project sufficiently.
Source: Eurostat
2010
From the following list of countries, which
countries do you think are world powers?
In 2005, the Bertelsmann Foundation asked citizens of different countries around the world which countries
they considered world powers. In the fifth column one can see that only the Europeans considered
themselves as a world power. Only 15% of Brazilians, 17% of Chinese and 7% of Indians saw Europe as such.
Approximately 1 out of every 4 Americans and Russians saw it as a world power. The Germans, French and
English did not have a corresponding perception.
Source: Bertlesmann
Stiftung
Which countries do you think will be world
powers in 2010?
Future perspectives do not appear promising either. The correspondents do not think that Europe will rise, but rather
that it will stay in its actual zone, in other words, one of ‘irrelevance.’
Source: Bertlesmann
Stiftung
¿How do outsiders see our influence?
A BBC survey demonstrates that
foreigners see Europe’s influence,
in general, as positive. In the
United States, Brazil, China and
Russia it is not seen as negative.
Interestingly however, Turkey is
one of the few countries where the
EU’s influence is seen as negative.
2010
Source: BBC World Service Poll
2010
Chapter 2: A small Asian peninsula
The BRICs are already here….
According to Goldman Sachs predictions (2003), emerging economies will slowly overtake the G-6
(this excludes Canada). This ‘overtake’ will be completed around 2040, when the BRICs’ economies
(Brazil, Russia, India and China) will be larger than the G-6s’ (United States, Germany, United
Kingdom, France and Italy).
Source: Goldman
Sachs 2003
Projections for the BRICs and the West (2003
and 2008)
The most interesting fact about Goldman Sach’s predictions on China is that they have always been wrong and against
China. Every prediction has been disapproved by reality, in other words, China has always grown more than had been
expected. If in 2003 it was though that China would overtake the United States in 2041, this changed in 2008 when
the predictions were lowered to 2027 and they continue to be lowered today.
Source: Goldman Sachs 2009
Underestimating the BRICs
The world in 2050: 2003 perspective (the graph on the
left) and 2008 perspective (the graph on the right)
The graph on the left shows the predictions made in 2003 on how large the world’s economies would be in 2005. The size of China’s
economy was estimated (in 2003) that it would be $ 45,000 billion (in 2050). However in 2008 the estimates were changed to $70,000
billion (in 2050).
Source: Goldman Sachs 2009
The struggle for energy resources in a multipolar
world: the Chinese giant needs more energy
Are there enough energy resources in the world to satisfy China? China is on the verge of overtaking the United States
as the world’s biggest consumer of energy (graph on the left) and it is currently already the second biggest importer of
oil in the world (graph on the right). From these facts rises its ‘African’ policies and the necessity to assure supply.
Fuente: Financial
Times, 20/01/2011
The 21st century will be a G-2 world
The United States is living in a ¨Sputnik¨ moment: comparisons between the United States and China do not
show a clear lead for the US while Obama is currently preparing the US for a post-American century. The
European Union should also think about what its role in such a world.
Source: The
Guardian,
20/04/2011
Chapter 3: Power fragments
Europe
• E continues to be an economic superpower…
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2005
2010
Even during the economic crisis, the EU-27 economies are larger than the American economy. And three
times bigger than China’s. The rest of the BRICs trial far behind the EU. Economically, there is much more to
Europe than it appears (data in billions of Euros).
Source: IMF World
Economic Database
…and also a trade superpower
As a trade partner, the Europeans lack rivals. Its market continues to be the most attractive in the world.
Source: Eurostat 2010
The United States' hypertrophy:
One area where Europe cannot compete with the United States is defense spending. The US represents
almost half of the world’s spending on defense and the consequences of this might are enormous.
Psychologically, it is said, ¨when one has a hammer, everything appears to you as a nail.¨ One can say
something similar for the US. The US Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates, said that he would prefer more
diplomats rather than soldiers (and allies more willing to cooperate).
Europe and the United States are more and
more incompatible
Europe
United States
€ 194 billion
€ 498 billion
Defence
expenditure as
% of GDP
1,67%
4,9%
Defence
expenditure
per capita
€ 392
€ 1.622
Total defence
expenditure
Define spending in the US and Europe in 2009
Is Robert Gates correct when he speaks of the ¨demilitarization of
Europe¨? Are we really from Venus and the Americans from Mars? The
war in Libya shows that the US was right to be frustrated with Europe.
NATO is in an intensive care unit, but nobody dares to say it publicly.
Source: European Defence Agency 2009 y
Financial Times, 16/11/2010
Europe is reducing its defense expenditure while
the BRICs are increasing it
The BRIC’s defense expenditure is increasing while the European's is decreasing. The UK-France
agreement to share aircraft carriers has been described as a substitution of the ¨entente cordial¨ to
¨entente frugal.¨
Source: IISS, The Military Balance
2010
Europe does not spend little: its military
expenditure is high but it spends it badly
China
7%
Russia
5%
Japan India
4%
2%
World
expendi
ture
$950, in
billions
US
Rest
11%
United States
49%
EU-27
22%
United States
$466
EU-27
$207
EU-27
Rest
The rest of
the
world
China
$102
China
Russia
$65
Russia
Japan
$50
Japan
India
$41,7
India
Europe’s problems is not that it spends little, it´s that it spends ‘badly.’ The defense expenditure of the EU-27
represents about one ¼ of the world’s defense expenditure. Their total defense expenditure of around $200
billion reflects different priorities from the Cold War, their political necessities and national prejudices. The
Treaty of Lisbon includes the legal mechanism to overcome this problem, but the political will is nonexistent.
$19
Some Europeans spend a lot, others few: the
defense of the 27 is a thing for 2
As important as quantity and quality is fairness. In the EU, two EU member states (France and the
UK) spend almost 50% of defense spending in Europe. However, the politics of the common defense
policy are governed by unanimity. It appears as though Europe is still not mature enough to change
the rules of the game.
Source: ECFR,
Re-energising
Europe’s Security
and Defence
Policy
Many embassies, few results
The EU’s foreign policy has three ‘Ds’ (defense, diplomacy and development). The diplomatic dimension
consists of a large number of redundancies duplications. The European External Action Service (EEAS)
created by the Lisbon Treaty, was meant to resolve these problems but reality has gone down a different
path; we have now moved from the ¨troika¨ to ¨trio.¨
Source: Lamo, Emilio (ed),
“Europa después de Europa”,
Academia Europea de
Ciencias, 2010, p.377.
A sufficient number of diplomats but very
dispersed
The power of the EU at the United Nations has been decreasing. More then 1,000 annual meetings between
the Europeans to coordinate policies at the UN has lead to the EU voting almost always together. However,
Resultados de las votaciones en materia de derechos humanos en ONU.
the success of this has been low due to the fact that the ¨eurosphere¨ is becoming weaker in the area of
human rights. China, Russia and other emerging economies have become more successful in attracting
African, Asian and Latin countries to adopt their positions.
Source: ECFR,
The EU and
human rights at
the UN, 2009
review
World superpower in development assistance…
ODA (millions of $)
70
60
50
40
ODA
(millions of
$)
UE-27
59,909
United States
25,173
Japan
6,166
Other CAD
5,443
Other nonCAD
5,580
30
20
10
0
UE-27
United
States
Japan
Other CAD Other nonCAD
Europe continues to the world’s biggest aid donor. However, due to its network of dispersed relations and
delegations around the world, especially in the ACP countries, the EU does not achieve its desired goal of
getting these countries to vote with it in the UN. China has converted itself into Europe’s primary rival in
the African sphere.
Source: OECD
2009
…but with many “free-riders”
Once again, the total spending in Europe on aid hides the realities of donor asymmetries. Official development
assistance spending is above the UN target in few EU countries, while others look the other way (such as Italy, in
AOD
como % de Producto Bruto Interno
particular).
Source: Eurostat 2010
Bosnia’s aid map reveals some secrets
A typical example of the fragmentation of European power is Bosnia. Bosnia’s donor map clearly shows the dispersion
of aid. Bosnia is under ‘de facto’ European administration and it has received hundreds of millions of Euros in
European aid. However, the image of the EU in Bosnia is neither good nor does the EU manage to persuade the
officials in the country to adopt the reforms necessary to place Bosnia on a path towards EU integration.
Chapter 4: A lost decade
The decade in which European ‘politics’ was meant to become reality has been the decade that the
Europeans have begun to distance themselves from Europe. Attendance in the European Parliament’s
elections have been particularly low, especially in Central and Eastern Europe, which has surprised a large
part of the world.
Source: Parlamento
Europeo
The rise of xenophobia
The rise of xenophobia in Europe
questions its true values, both those
projected inside the EU as well as those
projected in its foreign policy.
Source: Financial
Times, 15/11/2010
Fear of immigrants
There appears to be no relation between
the number of immigrants and (the rise
of) xenophobic parties. In Holland and
France, where the percentage of
immigrants is low, xenophobic parties
have been on the rise.
Source: Financial Times
Europa: the land of asylum and refuge
The traditions of asylum between EU
member states. Many lack an asylum
culture.
Source: Financial
Times, 14/06/2011
Chapter 5: Swimming with sharks
American
‘fetishism’: Thirteen
EU member states
believe that they
have a ‘special
relationship’ with
the United States.
The expectations in
Europe of Bush’s
departure and
Obama’s arrival in
the White House
were high, however
they did not change
the ‘icy’
relationship.
Source: ECFR,
Towards a
post-American
Europe
From 20.000 (2006) to 40.000 soldiers (2011).
However, the increase in European troops has not
convinced the US.
In Afghanistan, European leaders irritate the United States because of their unavailability in
combat and due to their reluctance to increase contingents. Furthermore, the Europeans
appear to alienate their electorates, which appear to be more or less happy with the
deployment in Afghanistan.
Source: ISAF, Junio
2011
China divides us: four different positions on
trade and human rights
The relationship each EU member state has with China is very different although they can be
divided into four groups depending on how soft or tough they are in their relationship with
China on human rights and trade issues.
Source: ECFR, A
Power Audit of EUChina relations
And Russia divides us even more…
Frosty pragmatists
The new Cold-Warriors
Source: Popescu & Leonard, EuRussia Power Audit
Chapter 6: Nobody loves me
European values are not majoritarian
European’s record on the promotion of democracy and human rights has been questionable.
Democracies do not constitute the majority in the world nor do states have similar practices of
promoting democracies. Brazil, India, South Africa, and Turkey, for example, do not always vote with
Europe.
Source:
Freedom House
2010
At the UN, the EU is becoming more
isolated
EU member states insist that the UN is
fundamental in their vision of a
international system and universal
human rights, but the organization is
becoming more dominated by China,
Russia and their allies. The active
diplomacy by Beijing and Moscow to
find allies for their ‘axis of sovereignty’
demands a new approach by the
Europeans to counter it.
Source: ECFR, The EU
and human rights at
the UN: 2010 review
y A Global Force for
Human Rights?
Too many Europeans, too little Europe
Members of the G-20
Argentina
Australia
Brasil
Canada
China
Frane
Germant
India
Indonesia
¨The EU must reflect on the complexity and messiness of
its own internal economic governance that inter alia
complicates effective external action. The EurogroupEcofin duality or rivalry not only affects the internal
system of decision-making, but also muddies the external
representation of the EU and the euro-zone..¨ - Pedro
Solbes
Italy
Japan
México
Rusisa
Saudi Arabia
South Africa
South Korea
Turkey
United Kongdom
United States
European Union (the Presidents of the Commission and Council)
Spain (permanent ‘invited’ member)
Source: Solbes, Pedro
in: Challenges for
European Foreign
policy in 2011, FRIDE
Chapter 7: The new kids on the block
India, South Africa, Russia and Brazil are natural leaders in their regions.
Source: ECFR, New
World Order: The
balance fo soft power
and the rise of
Herbivorous Power
India: is anybody there?
The Europeans and the
Indians do not understand
each other: in India there are
more people who have an
‘unfavorable’ opinion about
the EU than ‘favorable.’ A
surprising fact, considering
the fact that both are
democracies that are marketorientated.
Source: Pew
Research Center
2010
The percentage of people who have a
favorable opinion about the EU opinion
Brazil
Brazil could be the new ‘energy giant’
Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project, Financial Times
15/03/2011
Turkey is walking away…
The percentage of the Turkish population that wants their country to join the EU has been decreasing since the
adhesion negotiations began. The EU’s attractiveness is weakening.
Source:
Transatlantic
Trends 2010
Chapter 8: The other’s weaknesses
The Europeans are still 30 times richer than the Indians, 10 times richer
than the Chinese and 4 times richer than the Russians.
According to the World Bank GDP per capita in 2009 for India was: $1,192, China: $3,744, Brazil: $8,230, Russia:
$8,684, la EU: $32, 845 and the US: $45,989.
Source: World Bank
2010 (current
dollars)
Be careful with ‘the bubbles’: The BRICs also have their
imbalances. Inflation was quite high in Russia and India
in 2010 as well as in Brazil.
Source: WSJ,
Feeling the
heat
China will be old before becoming rich
China ‘single child’ policy is already having implications on its demographics
Source: Land of the rising
son
China has 110 proposed reactors in the works.
Will they be reliable?
Source: Financial
Times
Russia’s demographics
- In 1993, Russia’s population was 148.6 millions.
- In 2010 it was 141.9 millions.
- In 17 years Russia lost almost 7 millions people.
- The World Health Organization stated in 2008 that life
expectancy in Russia for children aged 15 was less than
in Cambodia, Eritrea and Haiti.
- Life expectancy in Spain is 14 years higher than in
Russia.
Source: Prospect
Magazine y Foreign
Affairs, The
Demographic Future
More cell phones than toilets and a lot
of corruption in India
According to a UN study, only 366 million people had
access to toilets and running water in India while 545
million have a cell phone.
The BRICs have high inequality rates and corruption is
extended to large parts of the society. The number of
Russia millionaires has multiplied by 21, and by 6 in
India.
Source: UN Report 2010 y Financial
Times, 21/03/2011
Brazil; an economy with weaknesses
Brazil’s economic growth has been high, but its industry is weak in the face of Chinese imports of manufactured goods and
electronics. The Brazilian state is also ineffective and has a large corruption problem. The Doing Business’ index places Brazil on the
172 position, under Russia (123 position) and China (79 position).
Chapter 9: An introverted DNA
The evolution of the foreign service in the
European Commission between 1969-1998
Africa, Caribbean and Pacific countries
(ACP) and non-ACP countries
The EEC’s first foreign delegations responded to the necessity of managing aid flows and relations with ex-colonies, not to a calling to
have a ‘foreign policy.’ EU member states retained their foreign policy (high politics) and delegated the European Commission trade
and aid issues.
Source: Bruter, Michael (1999)
'Diplomacy without a state: the
external delegations of the European
Commission', Journal of European
Public Policy, 6: 2, 183 — 205
Trade between the European community and EFTA
Enlargement has not been the product of deliberate design but rather of unexpected events. The economic success of the EEC
attracted the United Kingdom and others. The democratic factor attracted southern Europe. But Europe has always carried out
enlargements against its will. The European project has an ‘expansion logic,’ but not a ‘expansion will.’
Source: European
Navigator
Chapter 10: Dazzled but not blind
That China is growing is logical: the abnormality is that the largest
country in the world is so poor. Its GDP per capita, even today, is the
same as Honduras.
Source:
Financial Times,
22/11/2010
The world’s biggest economies
The world’s biggest
economies in 2010
GDP in 2010 (trillion $)
The biggest economies in
2050 accorrding to Goldman
Sachs
1
United States
14,624
China
2
China
5,745
United States
3
Japan
5.390
India
4
Germany
3,305
Brazil
5
France
2,555
Russia
6
United Kingdom
2,258
Indonesia
7
Italy
2,036
Mexico
8
Brazil
2,023
United Kingdom
9
Canada
1,563
Turkey
10
Russia
1,476
Japan
11
India
1.430
France
12
Spain
1,374
Germany
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook 2010
Europe’s decline may mirror Japan’s
Life expectancy in Japan is 82.2 years, four years higher than in the United States; unemployment is 5% and its levels
of social protection and equality are one of the highest in the world.
Source: World Bank 2010
Europe was designed towards the ‘inside’: not
‘outside’. It is an introverted power.
The keyboard QWERTY was designed to slow down writing so that the keys did not get jammed. That is why the most used buttons
on a computer are concentrated around the weaker fingers in the left hand.
Link
To get Europe to have a foreign policy would require a
large amount of constitutional engineering… but the
ideal is the enemy of what is good.
If we re-designed our keyboards, we would place the keys used most often in the center where out strong fingers lie. However, the
cost of changing to a better system is higher than continuing to work with a suboptimal system. One way or another, Europe’s
Constitution tired to resolve the EU’s problems and to change the institutional design. However, the institutional engineering has
demonstrated its limits.
For more
information see the
following article:
Chubon keyboard
The panda developed a sixth thumb and
Europe should invent its foreign policy. The
function creates the organ.
The panda developed a ‘false’ thumb so that it could glide bamboo sticks between its claws. Europe does not need a
‘typical’ foreign policy like the rest of the superpowers, just one that appears so and one that could be effective in
completing its objectives.
For more
information see
this articulo.