Dr. Doerte Fouquet,
representing
EREF asbl European Renewable Energies Federation
Reasons for Concern – “The Red Embers”
2 oC
Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF,
Energiedag
2010
Source:
Smith
et al. PNAS, 2009
2
Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF,
Energiedag 2010
3



In 2005, renewable energy sources accounted
for 13% of the world’s primary energy
demand. Biomass, which is mostly used for
heating, is the main renewable energy source.
The share of renewable energy in electricity
generation was 18%. The contribution of
renewables to primary energy demand for
heat supply was around 24%.
About 80% of primary energy supply today
still comes from fossil fuels, and 6% from
nuclear power
Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF,
Energiedag 2010
4
Source: Prioritising Wind Energy Research Strategic Agenda,
Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF,
EWEA; Platts
Energiedag 2010
5
Dr. Dörte Fouquet, The European Renewables
Energies Federation (EREF)



Sets mandatory minimum national targets for renewable
energy shares, including 10% biofuels share in transport, in
2020
Requires National Action Plans,
Gives flexibility for Member States to reach part of their
target through






Statistical transfer
Joint projects between Member States and third countries
with existing or planned interconnector capacity (under
certain conditions and provided RES energy reaches the EU) )
Encourages joint Support mechanisms between MS
Sets clear rules for disclosure quality of Guarantees of
origin
Requires reduction of administrative and regulatory
barriers, improvements in provision of information and
training and improves renewables’ access to the electricity
grid
Creates a sustainability regime for biofuels
Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF,
Energiedag 2010
8

20% GHG reduction compared to 1990
Independent commitment

30% GHG reduction compared to 1990
In context of international agreement

20% renewables share of final energy consumption

10% bioenergy in transport, with
production being sustainable
second generation biofuels commercially
available
Electricity from RES
Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF,
Energiedag 2010
9
AT
BE
Production 2005
BG
CY
CZ
Target 2020
DE
DK
EE
EL
ES
FI
FR
HU
IE
IT
LU
LT
8.5%
LV
20%
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SK
SI
UK
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF,
April 2010
40%
45%
50%
10

National overall targets for the share of energy from renewable sources in gross final
consumption of energy in 2020* (ANNEX I of RES Directive)
2005 (1)
Belgium
2,2 %
Bulgaria
9,4 %
Czech Republic 6,1 %
Denmark
17,0 %
Germany
5,8 %
Estonia
18,0 %
Ireland
3,1 %
Greece
6,9 %
Spain
8,7 %
France
10,3 %
Italy
5,2 %
Cyprus
2,9 %
Latvia
32,6 %
United Kingdom 1,3 %

2020 (2)
13%
Lithuania
16%
Luxembourg
13%
Hungary
30%
Malta
18%
The Netherlands
25%
Austria
16%
Poland
18%
Portugal
20%
Romania
23%
Slovenia
17%
Slovak Republic
13%
Finland
40%
Sweden
15%
2005
15,0 %
0,9 %
4,3 %
0,0 %
2,4 %
23,3 %
7,2 %
20,5 %
17,8 %
16,0 %
6,7 %
28,5 %
39,8 %
2020
23%
11%
13%
10%
14%
34%
15%
31%
24%
25%
14%
38%
49%
(1) Share of energy from renewable sources in gross final consumption of energy,
(2) Target for share of energy from renewable sources in gross final consumption of energy
Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF,
Energiedag 2010
11





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
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Change in Paradigm: individual responsibility for own energy
supply, as local and decentralised as possible
Households and private sector in general should primarily
produce their own heat and electricity from RES sources in an
efficient environment
Combination with drastic change in consumption pattern and
increase in efficiency
Political commitment beyond ideologies and beyound short term
thinking to go for strong national efficiency and RES policies
Clear instruments, targets for rapid uptake and enforcement
Change from primarily energy generating companies to energy
service providing companies
High level of market penetration by Independent RES Power
Production
Swift abatement of open and hidden harmful subsidies to
incumbent industry
As long as these conditions are not really met – counterbalance
through state policies is necessity
Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF,
Energiedag 2010
12



National action plans (due by 30 June 2010)
Member States offers and requests for
statistical transfers/joint projects and the
details of those exchanges that occur
Member States' progress reports (first due by
December 2011)
The Commission's progress reports (first due
by December 2012).
Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF,
Energiedag 2010
13






In accordance with Article 4(2) and (3) of Directive 2009/28/EC on
the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources (RE
Directive):
Member States shall notify their national renewable energy action
plans to the Commission by 30 June 2010.
Each Member State shall publish and notify to the Commission, six
months before its national renewable energy action plan is due, a
forecast document indicating:
a) its estimated excess production of energy from renewable
sources (compared to the indicative trajectory) which could be
transferred to other Member States in accordance with Articles 6 to
11, as well as its estimated potential for joint projects, until 2020;
and
b) its estimated demand for energy from renewable sources to be
satisfied by means other than domestic production until 2020.'
Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF,
Energiedag 2010
14


The proportion of energy from renewable
sources in the gross final consumption of
energy is forecast to be 50.2% in 2020, which
may be compared with the binding national
target of 49% in 2020. Sweden will have a
forecast excess of approx. 1.2 percentage
points in 2020.
(source :Swedish Forecast Report to EC
Commission, 2009)
Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF,
Energiedag 2010
15




“We would reply as follows to the points under
Article 4(3) of Directive 2009/28/EC:
a) Finland does not produce an excess of
renewable energy which could be transferred to
other Member States in accordance with Articles
6 to 11; and
b) Finland is capable of meeting its renewableenergy objectives itself, without using the
cooperation mechanisms between Member States
which are provided for in the Directive.”
(Source: Finnish Forecast Report)
Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF,
Energiedag 2010
16

“One of the aims of the strategy is to halt and
reverse the growth in energy consumption. A
further aim is to increase the share of
enewable energy to 38% by 2020, in line with
the obligation under the Renewable Energy
Directive. This is a challenging obligation,
and meeting it will primarily require energy
consumption to be reduced.” (Forecast
Document)
Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF,
Energiedag 2010
17



Finland : Government want to make its RES
target reaching depending from new nuclear
build
Czech Republic: Grid access obstacles
increasing – Freezing of grid access permits
Cost for balancing increasingly burdened on
investor (e.g. Bulgaria)
Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF,
Energiedag 2010
19
Share of Renewable Energies in Total Final Energy
Consumption – 28 instead of 18% in 2020
Total Consumption
Renewable Energy
Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF,
Energiedag 2010
Share RE
20
Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF,
Energiedag 2010
21
Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF,
Energiedag 2010
22
Jobs in the renewable energy sector in Germany
2004, 2008 und 2009
87,100
Wind energy
85,100
63,900
109,000
Biomass
95,800
56,800
79,600
Solar energy
74,400
25,100
9,000
Hydropower
Increase: approx. 87 %
9,300
9,500
9,300
Geothermal energy
9,100
1,800
160,500
employments
6,500
Public / non-profit sector jobs
4,300
2004
278,000
employments
300,500
employments
2008
2009
3,400
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
Figures for 2008 and 2009 are provisional estimate;
Source: BMU-KI III Projekt "Gross employment from renewable energy in Germany in the year 2009, a first estimate"; Image: BMU / Christoph Busse / transit
Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF,
Energiedag 2010
23



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
The electricity sector will be the pioneer of renewable energy utilisation.
By 2050, around 77% of electricity will be produced from renewable
energy sources (including large hydro). A capacity of 9,100 GW will
produce 28,600 TWh/a of renewable electricity in 2050.
In the heat supply sector, the contribution of renewables will increase to
70% by 2050. Fossil fuels will be increasingly replaced by more efficient
modern technologies, in particular biomass, solar collectors and
geothermal.
Before sustainable bio fuels are introduced in the transport sector, the
existing large efficiency potentials have to be exploited. As biomass is
mainly committed to stationary applications, the production of bio fuels
is limited by the availability of sustainable raw materials. Electric vehicles
powered by renewable energy sources, will play an increasingly
important role from 2020 onwards.
By 2050, 56% of primary energy demand will be covered by renewable
energy sources. Global Energy ®evolution 2009
Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF,
Energiedag 2010
24

Rainer Hinrichs - Rahlwes, Vice President EREF,
April 2010
Renewables in general: 100% in electricity; of
which:
Wind onshore: 19%
Offshore Wind: 35%
Geothermal: 20%
Solar PV: 11%
Biomass: 10%
Hydro: 5%
(source:
Greenpeace www.greenpeace.de/fileadmin/gpd/user_uplo
ad/themen/klima/Klimaschutz_PlanB.pdf) (update: 2009)
25
Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF,
Energiedag 2010
26
Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF,
Energiedag 2010
27



Development pathway for the exploitation of energy
efficiency potential, focused on current best practice as
well as technologies available in the future.
The EREC/GREENPEACE Energy [R]evolution Scenario:
worldwide final energy demand can be reduced by 38% in
2050 compared to the IEA Reference Scenario.
The energy supply scenarios adopted in this report, which
extend beyond and enhance projections made by the
International Energy Agency, have been calculated using
the MESAP/PlaNet simulation model. The demand side
projection to take into account the future potential for
energy efficiency measures.
Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF,
Energiedag 2010
28



Exploitation of the existing large energy
efficiency potentials will ensure that primary
energy demand increases only slightly – from the
current global 474,900 PJ/a (2005) to 480,860
PJ/a in 2050, compared to 867,700 PJ/a
Condition sine qua non for achieving a significant
share of renewable energy sources in the overall
energy supply system, for compensating the
phasing out of nuclear energy and for drastic
reducing the consumption of fossil fuels globally.
Greenpeace Scenario
Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF,
Energiedag 2010
29



The grid integration of huge percentages of
fluctuating sources such as wind and solar
photovoltaic needs further scientific and
technical research.
Excellent regional meteorological data
Storage and balancing capacity on all levels of
energy path (batteries, pump storage, hydro
and biogas as storage, cavern use, transport
means and buildings as storage hubs, IT for
rapid balancing)
Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF,
Energiedag 2010
30
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
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
Phase out all subsidies for fossil fuels and nuclear energy.
Internalise the external (social and environmental) costs of
energy production
Mandate strict efficiency standards for all energy
consuming appliances, buildings and vehicles.
Establish legally binding targets for renewable energy and
combined heat and power generation.
Reform the electricity markets by guaranteeing priority
access to the grid for renewable power generators.
Provide defined and stable returns for investors, e.g by
well designed feed-in tariff programmes.
better labelling and disclosure mechanisms to provide
more environmental product information.
Increase research and development budgets for renewable
energy and energy efficiency.
Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF,
Energiedag 2010
31



Current discussion of FiT system and its rates
for PV in Germany shows a problematic picture:
As much as Independent power producer applaud
rapid decrease in technology prices there is a fine
line to short sighted populist move by politicians
which endangers the validity of the whole RES
sector
It seems it is “en vogue” to go after RES but keep
on being blind on topics such as windfall profits
and reserve funds for future dismantling of
Nuclear Power plants which give enormous extra
cash to the incumbent industry
Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF,
April 2010
32
◦ Thank you for your attention !
◦ Dr. Dörte Fouquet
◦ fouquet@kuhbier.com
◦ www.eref-europe.org
Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF,
Energiedag 2010
33