Key Research Findings and
Initiatives to Promote E-commerce
Jane Dyer
Director Markets and Communication
International Post Corporation
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Innovations in E-commerce, The Stanford Global Supply Chain Management Forum and IPC, 1 February 2011
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© IPC, 2011
Innovations in E-commerce, The Stanford Global Supply Chain Management Forum and IPC, 1 February 2011
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Postal Revenue Projection for 2015
Mail revenue down by 50% and other revenue up by 10%
Japan Post Group
Deutsche Post DHL
UPS
United States Postal Service
FedEx
Poste Italiane SpA
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Innovations in E-commerce, The Stanford Global Supply Chain Management Forum and IPC, 1 February 2011
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The Outlook for E-commerce
Growth is Strong
Source: Forrester 2010 & 2009 Online Retail Forecast
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Innovations in E-commerce, The Stanford Global Supply Chain Management Forum and IPC, 1 February 2011
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Global Parcel and Express Market ~€133B
Global express and parcel market structure
Total market1,2,3 : €133B
25
100%
16
28
6
39
8
4 2 5
Other
Market shares
(global)
Other
Other
80%
Other
Other
TNT
GLS
GeoPost/DPD
FedEx
Other
60%
TNT
Other
Other
40%
DHL
DHL
Top 6
DHL
UPS
GeoPost/DPD
FedEx
FedEx
DHL
TNT
DHL
UPS
0%
49%
FedEx
GLS
20%
UPS
22%
FedEx
13%
DHL
8%
TNT Express
3%
DPD/Geopost 2%
GLS
1%
UPS
UPS
FedEx
0%
20%
Europe domestic
TNT
DHL
Europe Int’l4
40%
Asia-Pacific
DHL share has dropped since 2006 by shedding
loss making domestic operations in FR/UK
UPS
FedEx
UPS
60%
Asia Pacific
Int'l4
80%
100%
North America domestic
RoW
North America Int’l4
South America Int’l4
South America domestic
1. Use of 2008 values, 2010 market structure 2. Excluding (express freight revenues of all market players. Freight is defined as heavey parcels >70kg, pallets and containers 3. Excluding couriers
(same-day point-to-point deliveries) 4. International includes outbound shipments only
Source: FedEx; UPS; DHL; Transport Intelligence; press search, BCG research, BCG analysis
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E-commerce Research
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Innovations in E-commerce, The Stanford Global Supply Chain Management Forum and IPC, 1 February 2011
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Research Design
Multiple perspectives
E-retailers
• How businesses encompass
e-commerce & cross-border
trade
• Potential barriers to the
development of e-commerce
& cross-border trade
• Future potential of crossborder trade
• How postal organizations can
better meet the needs of
customers
• Value of a return solution to eretailers
Legislative Framework
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Consumers
Opportunities
for posts in ecommerce
• Incidence of cross border
physical purchases
• Country of origin of cross
border goods
• Motivations & barriers for
purchasing cross border
• Consumer needs in terms of
delivery
• Purchasing online behavior
including choices in delivery
options
• Current return behavior
Technological Infrastructure
Innovations in E-commerce, The Stanford Global Supply Chain Management Forum and IPC, 1 February 2011
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Scope of Research
Range of e-commerce market maturity
Country
Consumers
E-retailers
Primarily
Established
domestic
Multi-country
focus
Qualitative
Phase
Quantitative
Phase
UK
10
+/- 1500
10
5
Germany
10
+/- 1500
10
5
8
4
US
Denmark
10
Sweden
10
France
10
+/- 1500
7
4
Belgium
10
+/- 1500
2
5
Netherlands
10
5
2
TOTAL
70
+/- 1500
600 target
interviews per
country
42
25
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+/- 1200
Innovations in E-commerce, The Stanford Global Supply Chain Management Forum and IPC, 1 February 2011
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Online Shopping Behaviour
Cross-border
5
Cross-border shoppers are even
more experienced and buy
online more frequently.
years
DE-cb
UK-cb
Experience in Years
DE
NL-cb
UK
DK-cb
4
years
FR-cb
NL
DK
FR
BE-cb
BE
3
years Light
Medium
Heavy
Frequency of Purchase
Base: Individuals with internet access at home who purchased goods for physical delivery in past 12 months
Q1.1 & Q1.2
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* cb – Cross-border
Innovations in E-commerce, The Stanford Global Supply Chain Management Forum and IPC, 1 February 2011
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Online Purchases
Top 10 goods for physical delivery
Average #
UK
DE
FR
(n=635)
(n=602)
(n=608)
7.1
7.8
5.9
DK
(n=606)
6.0
NL
BE
(n=625)
(n=611)
5.4
4.5
Books, CDs & DVDs
Clothes & shoes
Computer software / games
Electronic equip. & devices
Toys & hobbies
Small domestic appliances
Beauty
Computer hardware
Office supplies
Sports goods
Base: Individuals with internet access at home who purchased goods for physical delivery in past 12 months
Q2.1 & Q2.1A, Q2.2
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Innovations in E-commerce, The Stanford Global Supply Chain Management Forum and IPC, 1 February 2011
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E- retailer Business Strategies
Cross-border adoption segments in the US
“It’s almost like we
take international
orders, but we’re not
actively trying to sell
our product to
international
customers.”
Exploiters
Long-time players
Embracers
Very knowledgeable
Emergers
Embryonics
Inert
No desire
Fear fraud
Domestic focus
No resources for
international
expansion
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Planning or
relatively new to
international
Some website
changes
More experienced
Ad Hoc orders
See value in
expansion
Manual fraud
Inspection
Use international
facilitators
Own fraud detection
system
Use retail stores (if
have them) to increase
cross-border sales &
get faster delivery
May use country URLs
or translations
Positioned with
superior items or
best pricing over incountry or other
retailers
Use referrals
Use other portals
Use own
seamless shipping
arrangements
No changes to
domestic website
Innovations in E-commerce, The Stanford Global Supply Chain Management Forum and IPC, 1 February 2011
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Return Services
Incidence and methods of return
UK
% Ever returned goods
Average number of returns
DE
FR
DK
NL
BE
61%
76%
52%
51%
61%
44%
3.2
6.6
2.9
4.0
4.8
4.0
(n=457)
(n=319)
(n=307)
(n=381)
(n=389)
(n=269)
Take to a post office/collection point
Organise a specific pick up
Take it back to the store
Return immediately at moment of
delivery
Base: Individuals with internet access at home who purchased goods for physical delivery in past 12 monts and EVER RETURNED goods
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Innovations in E-commerce, The Stanford Global Supply Chain Management Forum and IPC, 1 February 2011
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Conclusions and Learning
Success in delivery
Trust
E-retailers
Consumers
Customer care
Delivery Partner
•
•
•
•
Cost
Reliability
Track & trace
Flexibility in capacity
•
•
•
•
•
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Cost effective
Quality service
•
•
•
•
Price
Reliability
Choice
Information
Drivers for Success
Segmented pricing models
Proactive information management
Logistics expertise
Relationship management
Flexible business model
Innovations in E-commerce, The Stanford Global Supply Chain Management Forum and IPC, 1 February 2011
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Cross-Border Customer Demands
•
•
•
•
Low shipping prices
Provision of estimated delivery date
All-inclusive pricing at the point of purchase
Full integration of the tracking data in the web
portal of purchase
• Pro-active notification of delivery to the consumer
throughout the supply chain
• Simple, clear and speedy returns processes
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Innovations in E-commerce, The Stanford Global Supply Chain Management Forum and IPC, 1 February 2011
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The Future of E-commerce
• Transfer of retail from Main Street to direct delivery
• Sharing strategic insights and vision
• Where is the consumer technology headed?
• Future development needs of global supply chain?
• Key issues to overcome?
• Meeting the needs of the global consumer
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